Myanmar Rebels Vs Gov

[chino]

Perhaps if you actually knew Thai-Malays who live in fear of the indiscriminate terror of shootings and bombings affecting their families and communities and are the most often targeted by the separatists, then you might understand the struggle is as much local as it is with Bangkok. Telling me about Tak Bai is pointless since it was neither the root of the insurgency nor the reason it persists. Only some dumb fuck who has a superficial understanding of the conflict would believe that Tak Bai was the genesis of the conflict or part of a policy of genocide against ethnic Malays. Please go to Yala and tell me about the ethnic cleansing going on. Jesus, you are ignorant and revel in it.

Where did I say it was the root of the insurgency? You must be pretty a stupid fuck to imagine that this does not deepen the animosity. Fuck you.

[Corinthian]

Yo guys. Cool off for a while. Let's not have this thread deteriorate into cursing.

 

Unless you use the f-bomb as a term of endearment hehehe

 

Srsly, cool down for a while.

[JasonJ]

Allegedly Myanmar airstrike bombs on China's side of the border killing 4 civilians.

 

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Myanmar-border-conflict-spreads-to-Yunnan-as-jet-bombing-kills-4-in-China

 

YANGON -- Escalating conflict in the Kokang region of northeastern Myanmar between government troops and ethnic insurgents has spilled over to Chinese soil, prompting China to claim on Saturday that air strikes by Myanmar military jets had caused civilian casualties on the Chinese side of the border between Myanmar and China's Yunnan province. However, Zaw Htay, director of the presidential office for Myanmar' President Thein Sein, denied that government military jets were involved in the aerial bombing incident, which was reported to have killed four Chinese civilians and injured nine others inside Yunnan, across the border from the troubled Kokang region.

...

 

[Ivanhoe]

Check his cloak-room and dag-- er, knife drawer...

 

Those are cooking knives.

[Nobu]

I can think of many times when I've been guilty of being the stupid fuck/ignoramus in the room.

 

Apologies from both sides are in order I think. Shall we, gentlemen?

Edited March 15, 2015 by Nobu

[Yalmuk]

China send HQ-12A SAM's to Myanmar border.

[Yama]

China send HQ-12A SAM's to Myanmar border.

No no, they are 'captured' from the Myanmar army...

[Simon Tan]

The Chinese are unamused by the 'anti-PRC' sentiment in the public domain in Myanmar. After the collapse of Plan Sri Lanka.....they are kinda peeved. It has to do with the power supply from a hydro electric project that wound up selling most of the power to the PRC although it was meant to be 50/50. Certain quarters painted the PRC as the fall guy despite being responsible for channeling the power.

[Yalmuk]

Rebels supposedly killed 70 or more government soldiers in a ambush.

http://china-defense.blogspot.fi/2015/03/tatmadaw-without-air-power.html

[chino]

Since I said the last "fuck you", apologies all round.

 

ETA

Job stress, I come here to TN to relax but can still get easily set off... Macau is unbelievably stressful.

Edited March 23, 2015 by chino

[JasonJ]

Since I said the last "fuck you", apologies all round.

 

ETA

Job stress, I come here to TN to relax but can still get easily set off... Macau is unbelievably stressful.

The relaxing section is the Joke thread with all those gifs and Poland balls

[JasonJ]

Two Myanmar shells land across the boarder injuring several residents.

 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-05/15/c_134242953.htm

 

BEIJING, May 15 (Xinhua) -- China is verifying media reports that another two Myanmar shells had fallen into southwest Yunnan Province.

 

According to the reports, the bombs fell in Zhenkang, a county in Lincang, Yunnan Province Thursday evening and injured several residents there.

 

"We have noticed the reports and are verifying the situation," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said during Friday's news briefing.

 

The conflict in the Kokang region in north Myanmar has lasted more than three months and bombs from Myanmar have fallen into Chinese territory several times.

 

On March 13, a Myanmar warplane crossed the border and dropped a bomb in Lincang, killing five Chinese and injuring eight others. In early April, Myanmar sent foreign minister U Wunna Maung Lwin to apologize to China over the fatal bombing.

 

The conflict and blasts have seriously affected the stability in the China-Myanmar border areas and endangered Chinese people living there, said the spokeswoman.

 

"The Chinese side has expressed strong dissatisfaction and solemnly demanded the Myanmar side to take effective measures to avoid any repetition of similar incidents," Hua said.

 

She urged the parties concerned in Myanmar to alleviate the tensions and resume peace and stability in north Myanmar as soon as possible.

 

"The Chinese side will reserve the rights for further reaction (to the reported incident) in accordance with the result of the investigation," said the spokeswoman.

The following report specifies 5 civilians injured, 2 of them being heavily injured.

http://www.asahi.com/sp/articles/ASH5H4FSMH5HUHBI00V.html?iref=sp_inttop_all_list_n005

Edited May 15, 2015 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

Not about the so called rebels near the China border but about a large Muslim population in a province that runs along the south west coast. They have not been recognized by the state and still are not despite the recent democratic processes that started up, making them the largest stateless nation.

 

Big article, but handy starter I think, won't use the usual quote box.

 

 

It all began when Zaw Min Htut learned he was on a list. Back then, however, he had a different name: Luk Man Hakim.

For three years he had been studying at Yangon University — not law or political science, like he dreamed of, but zoology, one of the subjects he was allowed to enrol in as a noncitizen.

Although he was born and raised in Myanmar and could trace his family history in the country back several generations, Zaw Min Htut was stateless. In an attempt to change this situation for himself and others in the same predicament, he had become one of the leaders of an underground pro-democracy movement. And in December 1996, the protest leaders took the bold step of launching street demonstrations against the country’s military government.

Or, as Zaw Min Htut puts it, “I became in a very dangerous situation.”

He was used to dealing with trouble from officials of varying stripes. Growing up, he had learned that being Rohingya meant that he needed special permission to leave his village or access public services, and that often meant handing out bribes — including to school teachers if he wanted an education.

However, the gravity of his situation was becoming apparent. The police were rounding up the protest leaders and they had his name. Friends advised him not to return to his dormitory room, and then later warned him to leave the country altogether. If he was arrested, they said, his ethnicity could mean an early grave instead of a spell in prison.

For nearly a year after the student protests were put down, Zaw Min Htut hid out in the countryside and moved from one friend’s home to another, from one village to the next, desperately trying to figure out how to escape the ruling military junta.

“Sometimes I stayed in a construction site,” he says. “This was a very hard time.”

Fleeing by boat was an option with the help of smugglers, but getting to them would be a long journey overland and his distinctive South Asian looks would raise suspicion.

Instead, he was able to secure a passport on the country’s vast black market and made arrangements for border guards at Yangon International Airport to let him pass. His parents sold land they owned to muster the requisite $8,000.

And with that document in hand, he was able to board a plane for the first time and make his way to Tokyo.

Freedom, however, was still a long way off.

History of oppression

The Rohingya are a Muslim minority of South Asian extraction who trace their origin in Myanmar back more than 500 years and who began to identify as Rohingya in the 1950s, according to the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

Their numbers have dwindled thanks to what experts see as a decades-long campaign to drive them out of the country, where they are viewed by some as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Many have fled in search of less oppressive living conditions but more than a million remain, mostly in Rakhine state, a sliver of land that juts southward from Bangladesh along the Indian Ocean.

Rohingya who live there today are subject to government restrictions on everything from marriage and childbirth to travel, which makes it difficult if not impossible to find work. They were also left out of the country’s 1982 Citizenship Law, making them the largest group of stateless people on Earth.

“It is not more than an animal’s life,” Zaw Min Htut says. “(Rohingya) don’t have any kind of rights.”

A wave of communal violence in 2012 saw around 300 people massacred, according to The New York Times, and most were Muslim. Thousands of homes were also burned to the ground. Human Rights Watch described the slaughter as ethnic cleansing.

A fresh exodus followed, as tens of thousands of Rohingya fled by boat. Many wound up stranded at sea and had to be rescued. Hundreds, perhaps thousands died. Most made their way to Indonesia, Malaysia or Thailand, where some were enslaved or preyed on by corrupt officials.

The aftermath of the bloodshed also saw around 140,000 Rohingya forced into squalid displacement camps where they continue to subsist, a few hundred kilometers west of the country’s tourist circuit, which is being thronged by growing numbers of foreign travelers.

As Myanmar takes steps to open its economy and democratize after a half-century of military rule, the new civilian government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) is trying to deal with the problem. Although its de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has refused to use the word “Rohingya,” she has appointed former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to head an advisory commission on the situation.

Still, living conditions remain dire, according to Chris Lewa, who has been involved with rights issues in Myanmar for more than 20 years and runs a nongovernment organization dedicated to monitoring what’s happening to the Rohingya.

Lewa visited the displacement camps in Rakhine state in May, and says that after more than four years the temporary bamboo shelters are crumbling and the humanitarian aid that residents rely on to survive is dwindling.

Meanwhile, in northern Rakhine state, where the Rohingya are the majority, there’s been “an increase in human rights abuses rather than a decrease,” Lewa says by phone from Bangkok.

“They’re starting to harass the community even more by trying to say, ‘You’re not a citizen, you can’t do this, you can’t do that — you need permission,'” she adds. “So really, there is more oppression in the last few months under the NLD government than there was before.”
Legal marathon

When Zaw Min Htut landed at Narita Airport in early 1998 he was immediately detained. His travel documents said he was visiting Japan on business but he was suspiciously young and gaunt-looking after a year living on the lam in one of the poorest countries in Asia.

After being questioned by immigration officials for a few days and under threat of being put on a plane back to Yangon, he asked to apply for refugee status. His next two months were spent in detention at the airport, where he says he was fed convenience store meals for which he was told to pay about $800.

He was then transferred to Ushiku detention center in Ibaraki Prefecture, where he spent the next nine months, during which he was allowed outdoors one hour per week.

An immigration lawyer named Shogo Watanabe agreed to take on his case pro bono and, after a handful of attempts, had Zaw Min Htut freed. However, life in his adopted home was tough. On top of the language and cultural barriers he had no work permit, and was forced to rely on food and shelter from his uncle who, like him, had a refugee application pending.

“It was a horrible life,” Zaw Min Htut recalls. “I became very small.”

To make matters worse, immigration officials had issued a deportation order against him. With Watanabe’s help, he appealed the Justice Ministry’s decision to reject his application and, ultimately, became the first Rohingya in Japan to be granted refugee status.

Today, there are close to 250 Rohingya living in Japan, many of whom are children who have been born here, and most of whom reside in Gunma Prefecture.

Kei Nemoto, a professor at Sophia University who studies Myanmar’s modern history, says that like Zaw Min Htut, those who apply for refugee status often run into trouble supporting themselves because they’re barred from working while their cases are before the Immigration Bureau — a process that takes, on average, 30 months.

“This is a very, very inhuman system, isn’t it?” Nemoto says during an interview at his office. “The government is now checking your case but you have to wait, you can never work.”

Human rights groups have also taken issue with the approach, demanding that the central government grant work permits to Rohingya who are seeking asylum. However, the vast majority aren’t granted refugee status but something called “special permission to stay in Japan.” It’s a temporary designation that Nemoto says allows immigration officials to acknowledge that political conditions have forced someone to flee their home country without deeming them refugees. As a result, they aren’t granted the rights or travel documents to which refugees are entitled.

“Most of them struggled for a long time” to secure permission to stay in the country, Nemoto says of Japan’s Rohingya newcomers. “The Japanese government doesn’t want to give full refugee status easily.”

A call for help

Nowadays Zaw Min Htut can be found working at the two recycling yards he owns northwest of Tokyo, not far from where he lives with his Rohingya wife and three children. An affable 44-year-old who likes to talk and laughs easily, Zaw Min Htut has also made himself into a well-connected lobbyist — one of the few Rohingya in exile campaigning to end their persecution.

For years he has pressed bureaucrats in Tokyo to heed the plight of his people and relax the government’s immigration policies so that more Rohingya can make a life for themselves in Japan.

Despite the appalling conditions they face at home, however, Zaw Min Htut says very few other Rohingya have been recognized as refugees here.

He also argues that, as one of the largest donors of foreign aid to Myanmar, Japan is in a position to pressure its new government to stop discriminating against the Rohingya and grant them citizenship.

On a recent Saturday, he was at his office preparing documents for a meeting with officials at the Foreign Ministry, whom he hopes will raise the Rohingya issue with Suu Kyi during a visit to Japan that’s reportedly planned for next month.

“I feel it is my responsibility to do whatever I can,” Zaw Min Htut says, his voice growing louder, “because in Japan there are not many people interested in foreign affairs.”

Officials in Nagatacho, however, have been paying close attention to what happens in Myanmar. Since democratic reforms began there several years ago, hundreds of billions of yen worth of debt has been forgiven and officials pledged a further ¥100 billion in loans this summer.

A portion of the money that Japan donates to U.N. agencies operating in Myanmar also goes to help Rohingya who have been displaced in Rakhine state. However, the Rohingya aren’t a major concern for policymakers, according to Nemoto, because Japan’s main intent in Myanmar is to undercut the influence of an increasingly powerful Beijing.

“From the Chinese point of view, Myanmar is a very, very important country. They want to make Myanmar into a satellite state,” Nemoto says. “If the Myanmar government thinks Japan is a good friend, it may make some distance from China — that’s the goal.”

The Japanese government has also appointed Yohei Sasakawa, chairman of the Nippon Foundation, as a special envoy for national reconciliation in Myanmar.

Officials in Naypyitaw, the Southeast Asian country’s capital, convened a peace conference in August aimed at ending long-running conflicts with hundreds of ethnic rebel groups, but those efforts don’t involve the Rohingya.

Their plight, however, is related to a larger problem left by the military junta. For years, the former government used widespread prejudices against Muslims to help manipulate the Burmese public and deflect attention away from the country’s problems, Lewa says. Those attitudes persist and continue to be exploited by nationalist Buddhist groups.

“Anti-Muslim sentiment is hidden at the moment to some extent — but it’s very much there, so to me it’s also how the government is going to handle this,” she says.

Lewa points to an incident in July in which a mob burned down a mosque hundreds of kilometers away from Rakhine state.

“The authorities claimed they weren’t going to arrest anyone to avoid tension,” she says. “If the government does not take strong action to punish those creating this problem it’s going to continue.”

Meanwhile, the Annan commission faces its own challenges. When its members paid their first visit to Rakhine state last month, they were met with angry protests led by a local Rakhine Buddhist political party. Some lawmakers have been demanding that foreigners be removed. Rights groups have pointed out that it has no Rohingya members, and has only been given the authority to make recommendations.

Yet the specter of mass violence remains all too real. A large group of unidentified assailants killed nine border guards in Rakhine state on Oct. 9. Local authorities are blaming the Rohingya, and an unknown number of the stateless minority have reportedly been shot dead by security forces since the attack.

Zaw Min Htut says the military killed one of his second cousins on Tuesday, and many other Rohingya have been arrested.

He has requested an urgent meeting with officials from the Foreign Ministry and the U.S. Embassy to relay information he’s gathering from friends and family in the area.

“I want to use my freedom to secure their freedom,” he says, paraphrasing Suu Kyi. “But only international pressure can help the Rohingya. Myanmar’s government will never talk to me.”

Fact Box------------------------------------------------

1,826 refugees from Myanmar living in Japan and
1,492 pending applications from asylum seekers in 2015, according to the UNHCR.

More than 13,600 people held in immigration detention facilities in Japan in 2014, according to Reuters.

603 stateless people in Japan in 2015, according to the UNHCR.

27 people recognized by Japan as refugees last year, with 99 percent of asylum applications rejected.

Timeline--------------------------------------------------

1825: The British take over present-day Rakhine state; Muslim population grows as newcomers arrive from Bengal

1942-45: Japan invades, and is later defeated by the British; Muslim-Buddhist violence erupts

1948: Burma becomes an independent country

1961: Buddhism is made the state religion

1962: The military seizes power in a coup

1978: Attacks in Rakhine state prompt about 200,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh

1982: The government passes a citizenship act that names 135 official ethnic groups but omits the Rohingya

1989: The country is renamed “Myanmar”

1990: The opposition National League for Democracy wins the national election; the military government ignores the result

1992: About 260,000 Rohingya cross the border to Bangladesh after attacks by security forces in northern Rakhine state; many are later forced to return to Myanmar

2010: National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is released after years under house arrest

2011: President Thein Sein begins political and economic reforms

2012: About 300 people, mostly Rohingya, are killed in communal violence in Rakhine state; around 140,000 Rohingya are forced to move into displacement camps

2013-15: Tens of thousands of Rohingya make their way to Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia on boats

2015: The National League for Democracy wins the national election by a landslide, forms Myanmar’s first civilian-led government in decades

2016: Suu Kyi appoints Annan commission on Rohingya; the government organizes peace conference with most ethnic rebel groups; U.S. lifts trade sanctions

 

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/15/national/social-issues/japan-leaving-rohingya-cold/#.WAJXoskXVgM

[JasonJ]

Muslim lawyer involved in efforts to change the military-drafted constitution shot dead.

 

 

 

Tens of thousands of people yesterday gathered in the Burmese city of Yangon for the funeral of Ko Ni, a Muslim lawyer shot dead the previous day who was involved in efforts to amend a military-drafted constitution.

The 63-year-old was an expert in constitutional law and adviser to Burmese State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party that came to power in April.

He was also a prominent member of Myanmar’s Muslim minority.

His killing, amid heightened communal and religious tension in Buddhist-majority Myanmar, appears to be a rare act of political violence in the former capital that coincided with a tough security operation in a northwestern region populated mostly by Muslims.

Police have arrested a 53-year-old man, suspected to be the lone gunman who shot Ko Ni in the head while the lawyer held his grandson outside Yangon’s international airport on Sunday evening.

He had just returned from a trip to Indonesia, where Burmese government officials and Muslim community leaders discussed with Indonesian counterparts issues of reconciliation.

Taxi driver Nay Win, 42, was also killed when he attempted to apprehend the gunman, state media reported.

Police Colonel Myo Thu Soe said the suspect, Kyi Linn, was from central Myanmar’s Yinmabin Township and had served two stints in jail for trafficking religious antiques.

Kyi Linn was last released in a 2014 amnesty by then-Burmese president Thein Sein, he said, adding that the suspect had not given clear answers during interrogation.

“We cannot say exactly why he killed or who was behind him,” Myo Thu Soe said.

An estimated 100,000 mourners, including family members, lawyers, NLD activists and members of Yangon’s diplomatic corps, attended Ko Ni’s funeral beginning at a Muslim cemetery in northern Yangon.

Aung Sang Suu Kyi was not in attendance and has yet to comment on the killing.

Her party on Sunday said that Ko Ni’s death was “a great loss for which there is no substitute.”

Khin Maung Htay, a colleague of Ko Ni’s at the Yangon-based Laurel Law Firm, said Ko Ni was instrumental in devising the role of “state counselor” for Aung San Suu Kyi, enabling her to lead the government.

The 2008 constitution, drawn up by the then ruling military, bars the Nobel laureate from the presidency because she has family members who are foreign citizens.

Ko Ni was working on amendments that would further challenge the role of the military, which retains a quarter of parliamentary seats and controls security ministries under the charter.

Aung Shin, a member of the NLD’s central committee, said the murder was a “well-planned, fearless conspiracy” to kill a man who had extensive legal expertise and an ability to communicate the flaws of the 2008 constitution to the public.

Ko Ni was also spearheading a new Interfaith Harmony Bill that would include provisions on hate speech, hate crimes and discrimination, according to two experts working with him on the draft legislation.

Family members and friends said that Ko Ni had received death threats connected to his political work, but the motive for the killing was not known.

 

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/01/31/2003664077

[BansheeOne]

 

Quote

Date 01.02.2021

Myanmar coup: Aung San Suu Kyi detained as military seizes power

Myanmar's military declared a state of emergency after arresting the country's leader Aung San Suu Kyi and several of her allies in an early morning raid.

Myanmar's military seized control of the country on Monday and detained leading politicians, including Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The army declared a state of emergency for one year, accusing authorities of failing to resolve allegations of fraud in November's election.

World powers, including the United States, condemned the coup and called for elected leaders to be released.

Soldiers have been deployed in the capital, Yangon, and other other major cities.

Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, which won 83% of the vote two months ago, released a statement in her name.

"The actions of the military are actions to put the country back under a dictatorship," the statement quoted her as saying.

"I urge people not to accept this, to respond and wholeheartedly to protest against the coup by the military."

Party chairman Win Htein said it was authentic and reflected Suu Kyi's wishes.

Tensions high since disputed vote

Tensions have been running high between the civilian government and army officials since November.

Military-backed opposition parties had demanded a rerun of the election.

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, was ruled by the military for almost five decades until democratic reforms began in 2011. 

The Reuters news agency reported that mobile internet data connections and some phone services have been disrupted.

State broadcaster MRTV said its radio and television operations were off air due to technical problems.

"Due to current communication difficulties we'd like to respectfully inform you that the regular programmes of MRTV and Myanmar Radio cannot be broadcast," the company said on Facebook. 

Since gaining independence from Britain in 1948, Myanmar has seen two previous coups — in 1962 and 1988.

Romain Caillaud, an associate fellow with the Myanmar Studies Program at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, told DW that the military's actions overnight marked "a huge setback" 10 years after the start of the transition to democracy. 

"The consequences will be dire," he said. "This is a different world from 1988, with globalization, social media, COVID-19, a new US administration, and China's infrastructure ambition. Backlash against the Tatmadaw will be intense," he added, referring to the army by its Burmese name.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-coup-aung-san-suu-kyi-detained-as-military-seizes-power/a-56400678

[RETAC21]

Pertinent reading (albeit in Spanish):

https://abcblogs.abc.es/bukubuku/historia/la-historia-oculta-de-birmania.html

https://abcblogs.abc.es/bukubuku/historia/la-historia-oculta-de-birmania-y-2.html

[JasonJ]

22 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Pertinent reading (albeit in Spanish):

https://abcblogs.abc.es/bukubuku/historia/la-historia-oculta-de-birmania.html

https://abcblogs.abc.es/bukubuku/historia/la-historia-oculta-de-birmania-y-2.html

This is an interesting part:

Thant es crítico con Aung San Suu Kyi. Le echa en cara que desmanteló el aparato de asesores y think tanks que había organizado su predecesor, con lo que quedó en manos de los burócratas de manguito y pocas ideas. Esto se vio agravado porque los ministros que había escogido eran personas mayores a menudo con poca experiencia en las carteras que les habían sido encomendadas. Y, lo peor, es que no había preparado ninguna estrategia de gobierno. Más bien su tendencia era a la microgestión.

 

Some more articles:

Quote

 

YANGON/ BANGKOK -- After ousting the democratically elected government in a coup d'etat on Monday, Myanmar's military got on with the task of naming a new cabinet.

Many of the 11 ministers appointed served in the administration of former President Thein Sein from 2011 to 2016 -- a time when foreign investment flowed into a country that was becoming a fledgling democracy.

Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing appointed Wunna Maung Lwin to his previous position of foreign minister, and Finance Minister Win Shein was appointed as Minister of Planning, Finance and Industry, according to military-affiliated television.

The military also appointed Aung Naing Oo, who served in both Thein Sein's cabinet and the government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, as Minister of Investment and External Economic Relations. The appointment of the experienced minister shows the military appears to be seeking to minimize the negative impact of a potential fall in foreign investment.

The military took full control of the country on Monday, detaining Suu Kyi, and declaring the November general election as void. While it pledged to hold fresh polls, the undiminished popularity of Suu Kyi's NLD means it would struggle to compete in free and fair elections.

The NLD's executive committee on Tuesday called for the release of Suu Kyi and President Win Myint along with others detained "as soon as possible," in a statement posted on a verified Facebook page of party official May Win Myint. The statement also called for recognition of the results of November's election won by the NLD and for the parliament session, due to start this week, to be held.

The NLD won of 80% of competed seats in November. Even taking into account the non-elected military seats, which account for a quarter of those in parliament, Suu Kyi's party won a majority.

But the constitution imposed by the military in 2008 requires a three-fourths majority in parliament to be amended -- as Suu Kyi had pledged to do. This gives the army a veto, effectively guaranteeing its political power.

Despite not living up to promises to amend the top law, make progress in peace talks and boost the economy, the NLD managed to win more seats than in the previous 2015 election.

Min Aung Hlaing said just before the elections that preparations had not been fair, but many voters felt that the army was trying to interfere and felt compelled to support the NLD.

The election underscored the public's antipathy toward the military, which wants to protect its permanent involvement in politics. So the military may have felt threatened by Suu Kyi's popularity, and public support for her constitutional proposals.

Nobel peace laureate Suu Kyi focused on political stability in her first term, but was expected to push harder for constitutional change in her second.

She is also embroiled in peace negotiations with armed ethnic groups. Myanmar is home to 135 ethnic groups, and since its independence in 1948, the military has fought with more than 20 ethnic armed groups that oppose the Burmese-led central government.

Suu Kyi had proposed the introduction of a "true federal system" that would grant a certain amount of autonomy to ethnic minorities for the sake of peace.

"Suu Kyi's plan was to amend the constitution by gaining political clout through peace talks," said Toshihiro Kudo, a professor at Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, citing the need for the army to take part in negotiations.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Coup/Myanmar-military-appoints-ministers-after-ousting-Suu-Kyi-in-coup

 

Quote

 

TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's delay in addressing the apparent coup in Myanmar has stood out as key leaders across the Indo-Pacific and the West speak out against the military power grab in the Southeast Asian nation.

Myanmar's military detained de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other high-profile leaders, ostensibly over flaws in the country's November election. The shake-up comes as the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden feels out its global partnerships, including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue -- a coalition of like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific, designed to counter China's growing clout across Asia.

"The United States is taking note of those who stand with the people of Burma in this difficult time," Biden said Monday in a statement condemning the military's move. While the statement likely had China in mind, it may have agonized diplomats in Tokyo.

News of Suu Kyi's detention broke early Monday in Japan. Japan's Foreign Ministry throughout the morning said it was still gathering information. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi finally issued a statement after 4 p.m -- seven hours after the report of the detention -- expressing "grave concern over the situation in Myanmar" and urging the release of Suu Kyi and other leaders.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato earlier that day had encouraged parties in Myanmar to resolve the issue peacefully through dialogue, repeating Japan's official line on the country. The government sent an e-mail to Japanese citizens in Myanmar to avoid unnecessarily travel, but did not make any statements explicitly criticizing the Myanmar military over the apparent coup.

Japan's response contrasts with the speedy, often harsher reaction by much of the international community, including the other members of the Quad. The U.S. White House had issued a statement within hours of the incident saying it "opposes any attempt to alter the outcome of recent elections or impede Myanmar's democratic transition."

"The United States expresses grave concern regarding reports the Burmese military has detained multiple civilian government and civil society leaders," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted. "The military must reverse these actions immediately."

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison swiftly expressed concerns over what he called "disturbing" developments in Myanmar, and the Australian Foreign Ministry issued a statement urging the military "to respect the rule of law, to resolve disputes through lawful mechanisms and to release immediately all civilian leaders and others who have been detained unlawfully."

"India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar. We believe that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld," India's Ministry of External Affairs said in its statement.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, as well as key European leaders like British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, also issued a rebuke against the military's actions.

Japan was also slow to react to the storming of the U.S. Capitol in January by supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump. While key world leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron quickly slammed the incident through official statements and social media, Suga first addressed it more than a day later, only in response to a reporters' question.

"I hope Americans can come together and move forward" under then President-elect Joe Biden, Suga had said at the time.

In terms of the developments in Myanmar, a Foreign Ministry official said Kato's remarks reflect the government's official stance. The Foreign Ministry also issued its own statement. Still, these remarks do not carry the same weight as a direct statement or Twitter post from Suga.

Some say Suga is wary about commenting on Myanmar's internal affairs, which is not an invalid concern. Unlike the U.S. and Europe, Japan had also maintained relations with Myanmar's military junta before the country's democratic transition. It worries that isolation from the international community could push the country closer to China.

As Myanmar launched its democratic reform in 2010, Japanese companies backed the effort from the economic side by investing in the country. More than 400 Japanese companies are currently operating in Myanmar. Suga may have hesitated in condemning the Myanmar military with those companies and their assets in mind.

Many Asian countries have also not addressed the developments in Myanmar, as they look to balance relations with the U.S. and China.

The Biden administration is looking to see which country will side with Washington and its values. National security adviser Jake Sullivan said last week that the U.S. is looking to form a "chorus of voices" with like-minded allies to stand up for democratic principles.

Still, both the coup attempt in Myanmar and the U.S. Capitol storming are closely tied to these countries' electoral processes, which are critical to any democracy. As a democratic nation itself, Japan faces pressure to respond decisively to any move that undermines democracies around the world.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Coup/Japan-slow-to-join-global-chorus-denouncing-Myanmar-coup

 

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TOKYO (Reuters) - The world’s democracies would risk pushing Myanmar into the arms of China if their response to the coup closes channels for communication with the Southeast Asian country’s powerful generals, Japan’s deputy defence minister said on Tuesday.

“If we do not approach this well, Myanmar could grow further away from politically free democratic nations and join the league of China,” State Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama told Reuters in an interview, saying Japan should discuss a common strategy with its allies.

Myanmar’s army seized power on Monday, declaring a state of emergency, and detained elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi along with other government officials, having accused her National League for Democracy (NLD) party of winning a landslide victory in the Nov. 8 vote through “election fraud”.

Japan, a major aid donor with longstanding close ties to Myanmar, responded by calling for the release of Suu Kyi and members of her civilian government, and the restoration of democracy.

Nakayama said any move to suspend Japan’s partnership programme with Myanmar’s military could result in China winning more influence, potentially undermining security in the region.

“If we stop, the Myanmar military’s relationship with China’s army will get stronger, and they will further grow distant from free nations including United States, Japan and the United Kingdom,” Nakayama said. “I think that would pose a risk to the security of the region.”

Since 2014, through in-country seminars and other programs, Japan’s defense ministry has been training Myanmar’s military officers on underwater medicine, aviation meteorology, disaster relief and Japanese language. The two countries also have an academic exchange program, under which eight cadets from the Myanmar military are currently studying at Japan’s National Defense Academy.

As part of efforts to contain the growing influence of China in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, Japan has focused on “capacity building support” with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries as part of its security strategy in recent years.

Nakayama, who has been publicly critical about China, said he was watching China’s actions at sea with caution following a new law passed in Beijing, allowing the coast guard to fire on foreign vessels.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-japan-idUSKBN2A20PX

[Stuart Galbraith]

So we have a choice between them becoming authoritarian and undemocratic, and undemocratic and authoritarian? Hmm...

I'd magnitsky the generals. Anything else is just going to pile hurt in the Burmese to no effect.

[RETAC21]

26 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So we have a choice between them becoming authoritarian and undemocratic, and undemocratic and authoritarian? Hmm...

I'd magnitsky the generals. Anything else is just going to pile hurt in the Burmese to no effect.

At the end of the day is not black or white. democracy goddess Suu Kyi had no issues deniying the Rohingya genocide, as the articles I posted point out, it's better to open communication channels with whomever is in control and see what they are willing to trade than to isolate them and make them a Chinese puppet.

[JasonJ]

Thailand already got pushed to China some notches with the criticism at Thailand in 2014. If that path is taken, why not with Vietnam as well? Perhaps the Philippines too since Duterte hasn't exactly been clean despite having elections. 

 

And its hypocritical too. China never became a democracy yet they have a permanant seat at the UNSC and all the western countriew carry out massive trade with it. The cost of the hypoctasy is just making it worse by makng it easier for China to gain preference. If China had not been added to the WOT and had not been allowed to develop such deep trade with the other democracies, then it would have no cost to the democratic countries to sanction states for not upholding democracy. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

Some more articles:
 

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Washington (CNN)The Biden administration has formally determined that the military takeover in Myanmar constitutes a coup d'état, a designation that requires the US to cut its foreign assistance to the country.

"After careful review of the facts and circumstances, we have assessed that Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma's ruling party, and Win Myint, the duly elected head of government, were deposed in a military coup on February 1," a State Department official said Tuesday, using another name for Myanmar. "We continue to call on the Burmese military leadership to release them and all other detained civil society and political leaders immediately and unconditionally."
The United States provides "very little" foreign assistance directly to Myanmar's government and "the government of Burma, including the Burmese military, is already subject to a number of foreign assistance restrictions, including statutory restrictions on military assistance, due to its human rights record."

The State Department official, speaking on a call with reporters, said the administration "will undertake a broader review of our assistance programs to ensure they align with recent events."

That review will begin "immediately" and will "look at any programs that indirectly benefit the military or individual low level officers."

"At the same time, we will continue programs that benefit the people of Burma directly, including humanitarian assistance and democracy support programs that benefit civil society. A democratic civilian led government has always been Burma's best opportunity to address the problems the country faces," the official said.

They also suggested that sanctions in response to the power grab by Myanmar's armed forces Monday remain on the table.
"As President (Joe) Biden has said, we will take action against those responsible, including through a careful review of our current sanctions posture as it relates to Burma's military leaders and companies associated with them," the official said.

Biden warned in a statement the day prior, "The United States removed sanctions on Burma over the past decade based on progress toward democracy. The reversal of that progress will necessitate an immediate review of our sanction laws and authorities, followed by appropriate action."

The State Department official did not offer a timeline for potential sanctions. Officials told CNN Monday that the administration could roll out them out as soon as this week, but a decision to pull the trigger would likely be impacted by a desire to move alongside allies.

Congressional aides who were briefed by the State Department Monday told CNN that members of Congress would likely introduce legislation to mandate sanctions if the administration does not impose them.

Myanmar's top military officials, including armed forces commander in chief Min Aung Hlaing, have been sanctioned for their roles in human rights abuses against the Rohingya in Myanmar's Rakhine state. The military has been accused of committing atrocities including mass killings and rape against the the Muslim minority population, forcing nearly a million people to flee. The UN has recommended that top military officials face genocide charges. Suu Kyi, one of the now deposed civilian leaders, called reports of genocide "misinformation."

Myanmar's armed forces seized control of the country Monday after detaining top government figures, including leader Suu Kyi, after months of increasing friction between the civilian government and the military, known as the Tatmadaw, over alleged election irregularities.

CNN reported on Monday that a debate was taking place within the administration on whether to make the formal determination that a coup had taken place.

The State Department official told reporters Tuesday that they have "not had direct contact with the military on the ground" since the coup, nor have they been in touch with the detained civilian leaders.

"In terms of our ability to talk to members of the (National League for Democracy) party or Aung San Suu Kyi herself, no we've not been able to do that," they said. "Our understanding is that most of the senior officials are under house arrest, and the NLD leadership as well as some of the regional government figures and civil society figures. But we've not been able to reach them, we'll obviously continue to try to do that."

The official noted that the US has been "in frequent contact with our like-minded allies and partners in the region," including Japan and India, with whom they're "having daily ongoing conversations."

"We certainly appreciate that some other countries have better contact with Burmese military than we do so we're continuing those conversations," the official said.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/politics/myanmar-state-department-coup-determination/index.html

 

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The United States on Tuesday declared the military roundup of civilian leaders in Myanmar a coup, and said it would look for ways to impose more sanctions or other penalties on the country’s military and officers.

The military power grab poses challenges for the two-week-old Biden administration, which says it wants to support wobbly democracy movements globally, but also wants to avoid driving countries like Myanmar toward China.

And with Myanmar’s generals already under U.S. sanctions over the deadly campaign against the country’s Muslim Rohingya minority, it was unclear how much impact any new penalties could have. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a supporter of Myanmar civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, called Tuesday for “the strongest possible sanctions” and a U.S.-led effort to rally international condemnation against the coup leaders, including in the United Nations.

Biden administration officials had held off on describing the military’s weekend roundup as an outright takeover. The country’s military leaders said in a televised address they were taking power for a one-year state of emergency and claimed their move was lawful under the constitution. State Department officials said Tuesday they were satisfied the move met the legal definition of a coup.

The United States would “work closely with our partners throughout the region and the world to support respect for democracy and the rule of law in Burma, as well as to promote accountability for those responsible for overturning Burma’s democratic trajectory,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said. Burma is the former name of Myanmar.

Whatever penalties the U.S. decides on will spare direct humanitarian aid to the country’s people, the State Department said.

The weekend military roundup swept up Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize for her years leading Myanmar’s oppressed democratic opposition while under military house arrest, and other political and elected officials. Hundreds of parliament members were confined to a government housing complex.

The generals cited claims of fraud in November elections, which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party won by a landslide. State Department officials said there was no evidence of widespread fraud and said the coup was timed to prevent Monday’s scheduled convening of parliament.

The roundups upended years of internationally backed efforts to promote democracy in Myanmar, which had been emerging from a half-century of military rule and international isolation. Street protests against the military dictatorship eventually led to elections in 2015 that were won by Suu Kyi’s party.

The United States gave Myanmar $135 million in aid last year.

The impact of any new U.S. penalties against the military is likely to be minor. The United States already has sanctioned many of the country’s military leaders and withheld assistance from the military overall. That was for vicious attacks that have sent hundreds of thousands of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority fleeing the country.

Suu Kyi in recent years has defended Myanmar against allegations that military-led attacks in 2017 uprooting, raping and killing ethnic Rohingya amounted to genocide, costing her much of her support abroad.

In looking for ways to punish the generals for the coup, the State Department said it would look partly at any U.S. assistance programs that may be indirectly benefiting Myanmar’s military or lower-ranking officers.

President Joe Biden on Monday called the latest military action an assault on democracy and the rule of law in Myanmar. “The United States will stand up for democracy wherever it is under attack,” Biden said.

McConnell said Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken had called to talk about the U.S. response to the coup.

The Biden administration is seeking to restore the United States’ position as a global leader, after four years in which President Donald Trump withdrew from cooperation with longtime U.S. allies and devoted his international attention to authoritarian leaders in North Korea, Russia and elsewhere.

The new administration has sought to turn its main foreign-policy focus to ever more influential and economically powerful China, instead. U.S. officials have said they fear moving away from relations with any one government, country or region would leave an opening for Chinese influence.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-calls-detentions-in-myanmar-a-coup-promises-sanctions/

 

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MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

To other news now - the Biden administration says the situation unfolding in Myanmar is a military coup d'etat. Well, here's what else it is - an early foreign policy test for Biden's very new national security team. Officially calling it a coup requires the U.S. to cut off foreign aid, although the U.S. does not give much money to the government there to start with. And humanitarian aid is exempt. So what else can or should the U.S. do? Well, we're going to talk this through with Washington Post columnist and CNN host Fareed Zakaria.

Hey there.

FAREED ZAKARIA: Hi there. How are you?

KELLY: I am well, thank you. I want to start there with sanctions. In the case of Myanmar - good idea? Can they make much of a difference?

ZAKARIA: They're a good idea in the sense that we do want to register in some way that we disapprove of a military coup, which is, of course, exactly what it is, but they're not likely to be very effective. At the end of the day, it's an isolated country, Myanmar. Most of the influence is Chinese as long as the Chinese continue to deal with them. Huawei, the company that we all know because of the 5G ban, is the company building out Myanmar's digital infrastructure. That's going to go on. The Chinese buy enormous amounts of energy, timber from Myanmar. So it's a good example of the limits in a sense of American influence in a part of the world that is now largely dominated by China.

KELLY: Dominated by China - I mean, bigger picture here. Biden and his secretary of state, Tony Blinken, came into office promising to recommit to U.S. leadership in the world. In the case of Myanmar or Burma, as the U.S. still calls it, what does that look like, U.S. leadership?

ZAKARIA: I think the only way you could have effective leadership would be twofold. One is to stand for the right thing, which is democracy, the rule of law, constitutionalism, all of which was largely violated by this coup. But the second is effective international engagement, which means, truth be told, trying to find some way of working with China on this, trying to find some way of certainly engaging the European Union so at least the West has a common standard and a common policy. But none of it will mean much unless you can engage with China. And this may become a familiar theme for the next 20 to 30 years of American foreign policy. You can't make that much headway if you are not willing to engage the other superpower in the world now.

KELLY: China is the running thread through all or at least much of U.S. foreign policy. Just to follow on something you just said, Fareed, you talked about the U.S. standing for the right thing. Does the U.S. have much moral high ground to stand on here, lecturing another country about how to handle a disputed November election which includes false claims of voter fraud?

ZAKARIA: It was interesting the way that the Biden - I think it was President Biden himself or the administration put out its denunciation. It sounded as if it was denouncing the January 6 attempted coup in Washington, D.C.

KELLY: You mean if you substitute in a different country, they could have been saying the exact same thing.

ZAKARIA: Exactly, exactly. It was about, you know, an armed group trying to nullify, you know - in Myanmar, exactly, this happened, which is that - Aung San Suu Kyi won an overwhelming majority. The military claimed voter fraud. It asked for recounts and then decide, you know, to hell with it. And it just took over using a technical clause in the constitution that allows them to do it.

But I - to answer your question, the U.S. does have moral authority. I think we shouldn't get so hobbled by our own problems to forget that at the end of the day, the United States passed the test. The American system did endure, despite the most severe challenge probably since the Civil War. And it only shows that democracy is fragile. It has to be protected. These things don't happen automatically or by magic. And, you know, the United States' moral authority really comes from the fact that it is the oldest constitutional democracy in the world, has withstood a lot, including the assault by Donald Trump.

KELLY: We just have a minute or so left. But let me throw you one about Russia while I've got you, since we're talking about U.S. leadership on the world stage. With the arrest and now the sentencing of Alexei Navalny, the opposition leader, what kind of early test does that pose for Biden?

ZAKARIA: Again, it's important to stand for the right thing. It's important to try to make clear that there is some price to pay. But, you know, we have not - we are going to affect the internal affairs of Russia. Putin has a very firm grip on power. He has good control over Russia's finances. There is not likely to be a crash. So, you know, you do the right thing. You hope that it sends the signal and encourages the right people. You can do a little bit targeted sanctions. This might be the most intelligent way to go in the future, not sanctioning the state but sanctioning 10 people who are part of the state.

KELLY: Fareed Zakaria, thank you.

ZAKARIA: My pleasure.

KELLY: He is author of the book "Ten Lessons For A Post-Pandemic World."

 

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/02/963361201/fareed-zakaria-on-how-the-coup-in-myanmar-will-test-president-biden

 

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SINGAPORE — U.S. sanctions on Myanmar following this week’s military coup could open the door for China to extend its influence in the Southeast Asian country, said an analyst from geopolitical consultancy Stratfor.

President Joe Biden has threatened sanctions and condemned the military takeover that occurred on Monday.

Citing election fraud, Myanmar’s military detained several elected officials including de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and declared a one-year state of emergency.

While the U.S. doesn’t have a large economic interest in Myanmar, its Asian partners such as Japan, South Korea and India have expanded business and military presence there, said Rodger Baker, senior vice president for strategic analysis at Stratfor.

The presence of those Asian countries in Myanmar has helped to counter China’s “economic stranglehold” on the Southeast Asian country, Baker told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

“If the U.S. puts sanctions, this potentially has an impact on the U.S. partnership structure in countering Chinese behavior within the region,” he said.

Baker’s comments came after Japan issued similar warnings.

Japan’s State Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama warned in an interview with Reuters Tuesday that the democratic countries — including the U.S., U.K. and Japan — risk pushing Myanmar closer to China if their response to the coup shuts off communication channels with the country’s military.

There’s been increasing calls within Washington for the Biden administration to take tough actions against the military.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday said the U.S. should pursue the strongest possible sanctions, including acting via the United Nations “to see if the Russians and Chinese would actually veto it,” reported Reuters.

China’s interest in Myanmar
China, which shares a border with Myanmar, is a major investor and trading partner of its southern neighbor.

Beijing’s response to the coup has been muted. Repeating his statement from a day ago, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Tuesday said “we have noted what happened in Myanmar.”

But he added that “whatever actions taken by the international community shall contribute to Myanmar’s political and social stability, promote its peace and reconciliation, and avoid escalating the conflict and complicating the situation,” according to a transcript posted on the ministry’s website.

Baker said Beijing has a track record of playing multiple sides in countries — sometimes simultaneously.

In Myanmar, China has allegedly supported rebel groups against the military, but has also backed the military against the rebels, added Baker.

For China, “it’s just interests, how do they get access and they’re gonna continue to say they don’t care who runs it (Myanmar),” he said.

U.S.-China competition at play
The unfolding crisis in Myanmar presents an early foreign policy test for Biden in a region where China’s influence has been expanding.

U.S.-China tensions escalated during former President Donald Trump’s term, and remain one of the biggest policy challenges that Biden has inherited.   

Competition between the two countries “will shape Washington’s response to Myanmar’s coup,” said a Stratfor report published on Monday.

That means any action against Myanmar by the U.S. under Biden would be “very selective” — so that “it doesn’t necessarily hit hard against Indian interests, or against Japanese interests, (South) Korean interests,” Baker told CNBC.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/myanmar-coup-us-could-push-myanmar-to-china-if-biden-slaps-sanctions.html

 

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ミャンマー クーデター 現地の日本企業に影響続く

軍がクーデターを実行したミャンマーでは、2日も日本企業が工場の操業を停止したり、現地と日本を結ぶ航空便が欠航したりするなど影響が続いています。

自動車メーカーのスズキは最大都市ヤンゴンで乗用車や小型トラックを生産していますが、従業員の安全を確保する必要があるとして1日に続いて2日も工場の操業を停止しました。日本人を含むすべての従業員およそ400人に対し、自宅で待機するよう指示しています。

同じくヤンゴンで自動車部品を生産するデンソーも1日から工場の操業を停止し、日本人を含むすべての従業員およそ60人に対し自宅で待機するよう指示しています。両社とも、工場を再開する時期については今の段階では未定だとしています。

大手鉄鋼メーカーのJFEスチールは、建築用の鋼材などを作っているヤンゴン郊外の工場で2日から操業を停止し、従業員は自宅待機としています。

また、全日空は成田とヤンゴンを結ぶ定期便を週に2往復運航していますが、クーデターの影響でヤンゴンの空港が封鎖されていることから、今週と来週の合わせて4往復の欠航を決めました。現地の支店には日本人3人を含むおよそ20人の従業員がいますが、自宅で待機するよう指示しているということです。

経済同友会 櫻田代表幹事「制裁の行方など推移見守りたい」

経済同友会の櫻田代表幹事は記者会見で「民主主義の価値観を守る日本の立場からすると遺憾だ。日本政府は、遅れることなくスタンスをはっきりすべきだ」と述べました。

ミャンマーには、多くの日本企業が進出していますが、ビジネスをめぐる環境が不透明になっていることについて「直ちに外国企業が不利益を受ける状況にはならないと思うが、各国による経済制裁は覚悟する必要がある。1か月程度は静観せざるをえない」として、経済制裁の行方など事態の推移を見守りたいとの考えを示しました。

人口5300万人余 “アジア最後のフロンティア”

人口が5300万人余りのミャンマーは、2011年の民政移管後、法律や金融システムの整備などの経済改革を積極的に進め、アジア最後のフロンティアとも呼ばれています。

JETRO＝日本貿易振興機構によりますと、日本からの進出企業は2011年度には53社でしたが、去年末の時点では433社にのぼっています。

最大都市ヤンゴン近郊の「ティラワ経済特区」には大手商社の三菱商事、丸紅、住友商事などが参画して2013年から開発を続けてきた工業団地があります。ここでは自動車メーカーのスズキが進出し現地向けの自動車を生産していますが、クーデターの影響で1日から操業を停止しています。工業団地にはトヨタ自動車も進出し、今月から工場の稼働を予定しています。

ミャンマーではこのほかに、KDDIが住友商事と共同で2014年に携帯電話などの事業に参入し、通信インフラの整備を手がけているほか、鹿島建設は、ヤンゴンでオフィスやホテルなどを建設する大規模開発を進めています。さらにイオンは、現地企業と共同でスーパーマーケットを展開し、2023年度にはヤンゴンでショッピングセンターの開業を目指しています。

今回のクーデターを受けてアメリカのバイデン大統領が軍事政権時代の制裁を改めて適用することも辞さない姿勢を示す中、各社は現地のビジネスへの影響を注視していますが、今後の先行きは不透明です。

 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20210202/k10012846001000.html

 

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The Myanmar military on Monday announced that new elections will be held when a one-year state of emergency ends, and it will return the state power to the new government. The military said that during the state of emergency, the Union Election Commission will be reformed and the parliamentary elections results will be reviewed.

Myanmar's military announced a state of emergency few hours earlier on Monday and said power had been handed to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, following the military's detention of Myanmar's leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi and President U Win Myint.

Western media see it as a de facto coup, as the power transition occurred just hours before Myanmar's newly elected parliament was supposed to begin its opening session, meaning a confirmation of the November election result.

Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Monday's routine press briefing that China has noticed Myanmar's situation and are seeking further information.

"China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, and we hope all parties in Myanmar can properly handle differences under the constitutional and legal framework and safeguard political and social stability," Wang said.

The political uproar came after a great wave of dissatisfaction from the military and army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) against the governing National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the November election but was accused of fraud by military, media reported.

The NLD clinched an overwhelming victory, giving Aung San Suu Kyi a second five-year term in office. The NLD took 83 percent of the ballot in the election, while the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 33 out of 476 parliament seats, much fewer than the party had expected.

Experts said the military's actions can be seen as an adjustment to the country's dysfunctional power structure. China has maintained good relations with both the current government and the military, and it hopes that the two sides can reach a compromise through negotiations to maintain peace and stability. They also noted the country should be wary of possible external interference.

State of discord

Over the past five years of the NLD rule, the army and the NLD have been in a state of discord, a Beijing-based expert told the Global Times on Monday on condition of anonymity.

The military and USDP lawmakers together account for only about one-third of the seats in the Myanmar parliament, making it difficult to push their proposals, and they are unable to block proposals from the NLD, said the expert, noting that the military and the USDP may feel that their interests could not be guaranteed.

From 1962 to 2011, Myanmar's military dominated the country's politics, economy and society. After the democratic transformation took place in Myanmar in 2011, the military gradually lost its political power.

Since the 2015 election, the military-backed USDP had been defeated in elections and lost seats in parliament, which made the military realize that it is very difficult to obtain power through elections, the expert said.

"The military's actions, therefore, can be viewed as an adjustment facing Myanmar's imbalanced power structure," he said.

Tensions in Myanmar had escalated over the last week. A military spokesperson said on Sunday that they would not rule out a coup if the alleged voter fraud, involving over 10.5 million cases, were not investigated, urging the election commission to make public the final polling data, CNN reported. The commission on Thursday rejected the accusation, saying any errors were not enough to impact the final result.

The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday expressed "great concern" over Myanmar's situation and called for the November election result to be respected and democratic norms to be adhered to. Sixteen nations, including the US, also expressed their opposition to any attempt to alter the outcome of the elections through a joint statement from their international missions released on Friday.

Analysts said that it remains to be seen whether the military will yield to international pressure. The detention of governing leaders may trigger resentment among NLD supporters, and even a social backlash that will put pressure on the regime, especially amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

In a statement the NLD party released on Monday on behalf of its detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, it urged people not to accept a military coup and should protest, Reuters reported.

Yin Yihang, a scholar from the Beijing-based think tank Taihe Institute, told the Global Times that while the military has detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior NLD officials, it has been unable to fully control grass-roots NLD members, with further protests by NLD groups anticipated.

"Now the NLD has developed into a fully fledged party organization, ranging from the federal to the township level. After the military takeover, it will be difficult for the NLD to remain quiet," Yin said.

US involvement?

According to US media, White House press secretary Jen Psaki responded on Monday (ET Sunday) by saying that the US was "alarmed" by the situation in Myanmar, warning Myanmar's military that it will "take action" if they proceed with an "apparent coup" against the country's civilian leaders.

However, some experts mentioned that former US president Donald Trump, who refused to admit his election defeat and reportedly incited the Capitol riots, might be the Myanmar military's inspiration.

Fan Hongwei, director of the Center for Southeast Asia Studies at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Monday that the US may impose sanctions on Myanmar, and military pressure cannot be rolled out.

The Trump administration, while concerned about Vietnam and Malaysia, was not so concerned about Myanmar. During the Obama administration, the US paid great attention to Myanmar based on the US' Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, analysts said.

Yin Yihang told the Global Times that although the US had limited official exchanges with Myanmar during the Trump administration, US civil rights groups have maintained a presence in northern Myanmar, radicalizing local people.

"As per the current situation, US may also adopt a 'color revolution' approach to Myanmar," Yin said.

 "The situation in Myanmar is likely to be an opportunity for the Biden administration, which has multiple members from Team Obama, to repair relations with Myanmar, to make Myanmar problematic and use Myanmar to put pressure on China," Fan said.

 "Myanmar is a country that does not welcome interference by big powers. China has maintained good relations with both the current government and the military, so it still hopes that the two sides can negotiate a compromise to maintain peace and stability," said Fan.

As Myanmar's largest trading partner, China's trade volume with Myanmar accounts for more than 33 percent of Myanmar's total trade volume, according to data released by China's Ministry of Commerce in 2020. Therefore, a stable political situation in Myanmar is conducive to exchanges and development between the two countries.

An employee of a Chinese company surnamed Liu in Yangon, in the commercial capital of the country, told the Global Times that life is still relatively normal. While mobile signals have been cut off, the network signals are still functioning. "The market is still open, we feel everything is stable. The China-Myanmar pipeline project is operating normally, as are other copper and nickel mines."

The impact of the political upheaval on most Chinese companies' operations in Myanmar is limited, as most Chinese firms are based in Yangon, not the capital of Naypyidaw, another employee surnamed Zheng, from a state-owned company based in Yangon, told the Global Times.

As for whether Chinese employees will be pulled out of Myanmar, Zheng noted that they are waiting for further notification from the Chinese Embassy in the country.

Myanmar's air travel authority said on Monday that it suspended all flights in the country due to the state of emergency. All banks in the country have been temporarily closed.

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1214556.shtml

 

Quote

 

After Myanmar's military detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President U Win Myint and other elected leaders in early morning raids on Monday, a popular view in the West is that US President Joe Biden should seize the chance to restore the US' global leadership.

An editorial in the Washington Post on Tuesday said, "This is an opportunity to show they can deliver," since "Mr. Biden and his national security team have pledged to reestablish U.S. leadership on vital multilateral issues." A Monday article in Foreign Policy magazine argued it would "give the US a badly needed chance to reassert its role as leader of the free world."

The US' international influence and reputation have severely declined under Trump's rule. Now with the Biden administration being in office, it badly needs to take some measures to restore the leading status and influence of the US in the international community and among Western countries.

However, the US taking intervening in Myanmar as a chance to restore its influence and rebuild leadership among Western allies exposes the US' true hegemonic and selfish nature.

The US has taken interventionism for granted to prove its pledge to defend democracy, regardless of what the people of Myanmar truly need. Calling the detention of Myanmar's elected leaders "a direct assault on the country's transition to democracy and the rule of law," Biden on Monday threatened to re-impose sanctions on Myanmar. Issuing verbal threats is the first step. The US' next moves will likely hinge on how Myanmar's military responds to Western demands and condemnation.

If Myanmar military refused to relinquish power as the US has demanded, it's likely that Washington will re-impose sanctions that had gradually been rolled back by Obama. Another possible scenario is that the US and other Western countries may further increase efforts to cultivate and support pro-democracy forces in the country - what Myanmar military is not willing to see. Now, the US and the West have shown their strong interventionist posture. The wrestling between the West and Myanmar's military will continue for a long time to come.  

The most urgent problem in Myanmar right now is for relevant parties concerned to sit down and have in-depth, sincere and frank talks on the issues they are facing - and reach a certain degree of compromise. However, the US never cares about what Myanmar really needs. It always perceives the Myanmar issue according to its own desires and interests.

After the military seized power in Myanmar, some Westerners' sentiments have been ever more complicated. They are now arguing that the "democracy" under Suu Kyi (the once icon of democracy they championed) was flawed. Yet ironically, they also contend that Suu Kyi's "failings do not mean Myanmar's limited democracy is not worth saving." The mainstream Western voices hope that Myanmar's political transformation can continue to achieve the West's expectations and general directions. They see the Myanmar issue as a test for defending democracy and freedom. Have they ever really considered what caused this current dilemma?

The political democratization that the West has been advocating is not a panacea for developing countries who have their own distinct internal conditions. Political instability is actually one of the major problems faced by many Southeast Asian countries. The kind of political transformation the West seeks seldom sees long-term success in developing countries.

But this model may also leads to repeated political turbulence, failing to meet these countries' actual situations. This is what has happened in Myanmar this time. It also applies to the political turbulence that happened in Thailand before.

These cases actually show that Western-style democratization is indeed a crude model that does not take into account the reality of developing countries. The West should not force developing countries to accept their model. Serious Westerners should instead study and research the actual situations of those countries and their development goals more carefully. This way they can craft more mutual understanding with developing countries, including Myanmar.

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1214829.shtml

[JasonJ]

The G7 issued a joint-statement:

We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the European Union, are united in condemning the military coup in Myanmar.
 
We are deeply concerned by the detention of political leaders and civil society activists, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, and targeting of the media. We call upon the military to immediately end the state of emergency, restore power to the democratically-elected government, to release all those unjustly detained and to respect human rights and the rule of law. The November election results must be respected and Parliament should be convened at the earliest opportunity.
 
The military's restrictions on information flows are deeply concerning. Civilians, including civil society and the media, must not be subject to reprisals in any form. We also call for unrestricted humanitarian access to support the most vulnerable.
 
G7 Foreign Ministers recall their 2019 communique in which we restated our commitment to Myanmar's democratic transition, peace and accountability for human rights violations and abuses.
 
We stand with the people of Myanmar who want to see a democratic future.

https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press3e_000162.html

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 04.02.2021

Myanmar: Junta blocks Facebook, UN says world must 'mobilize'

Myanmar was the subject of a coup this week as soldiers detained de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The UN has said the military's efforts to seize power must fail while the junta has disrupted access to social media.

Myanmar's junta blocked Facebook on Thursday, just days after the army seized power, as the United Nations warned the world must rally to ensure the coup does not succeed.

People have flocked to social media to voice opposition to the coup, as well as share ideas to rise up against the actions of the military, with Facebook a popular option to galvanize support.

Muzzled

However, the junta took steps on Thursday to silence the people.

Myanmar's Ministry of Communications and Information said Facebook, used by half of the country's 54 million population, would be blocked until at least February 7.

"Currently, the people, who are troubling the country's stability, are spreading fake news and misinformation, and causing misunderstanding among people by using Facebook," the ministry said in a statement.

Facebook confirmed that access was "currently disrupted for some people," also saying that the restrictions had hit its instant messaging service, WhatsApp, as well as Instagram and all communication platforms owned by the social media giant.

Norwegian-owned telecoms company Telenor said that authorities in Myanmar had ordered it to "temporarily block" access to Facebook, saying it had to comply but that it had severe concerns about "necessity and proportionality" and whether the measure complied with human rights law.

With soldiers and armored vehicles back on the streets of major cities across the country, the takeover has not yet sparked any significant civil unrest.

Residents of Myanmar's largest city, Yangon, and other urban areas, though, did manage to bang pots and pans together, while some people honked car horns for a second night on Wednesday in protest against the coup. Images of the disgruntlement had circulated widely on social media, and on Facebook in particular.

UN's Guterres: 'Absolutely unacceptable'

Myanmar plummeted back into direct military rule on Monday when the army detained de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and other civilian leaders, in a series of early morning raids, ending the nation's brief flirtation with democracy.

The coup sparked international condemnation, with the United Nations joining the chorus of disapproval.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he would pressure Myanmar's generals to relinquish power.

"We will do everything we can to mobilize all the key actors and international community to put enough pressure on Myanmar to make sure that this coup fails," Guterres told US newspaper The Washington Post.

"After elections that I believe took place normally and after a large period of transition, it's absolutely unacceptable to reverse the results of the elections and the will of the people," he added.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-blocks-facebook-un-says-world-must-mobilize/a-56448004

[Stuart Galbraith]

On 2/2/2021 at 4:29 PM, RETAC21 said:

At the end of the day is not black or white. democracy goddess Suu Kyi had no issues deniying the Rohingya genocide, as the articles I posted point out, it's better to open communication channels with whomever is in control and see what they are willing to trade than to isolate them and make them a Chinese puppet.

If they are already acting like the Chinese, then ultimately it makes little difference if they are a satellite or not.

If we dont act when Democracies are toppled, you are going to see many emergent regimes, such as Iraq or Afghanistan, see it as a nod they can get away with it too without consequence.

And yes, I feel the same way about about Aung San Suu Kyi. At least she was democratically elected, flawed though she obviously is.

[JasonJ]

Some more links for catching up.

https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/aung-san-suu-kyis-china-trip-and-the-future-of-sino-myanmar-relations/

https://www.globaltimes.cn/daily-specials/Suu-Kyi-visits-China/Suu-Kyi-visits-China.html

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/925781.shtml

https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press4e_002644.html

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/18/c_138714159.htm

https://www.mmtimes.com/news/taiwan-rebukes-myanmar-over-joint-statement-xi.html

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-17/Xi-Jinping-sends-congratulatory-letter-to-Aung-San-Suu-Kyi-Vuv98Wwi9G/index.html

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1846054.shtml

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1846203.shtml

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-01/UN-chief-strongly-condemns-detention-of-Myanmar-leader-XwqKrqTYoU/index.html

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-01/China-hopes-all-sides-in-Myanmar-properly-manage-differences--XwFQPF9pOo/index.html

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by JasonJ