Meanwhile In Turkey

[stimpy75]

yes a bomb attack occured just 43 minutes ago in ankara.but who gives a sh*t.

just some muslims getting killed.the peace loving PKK/YPG!they are good terrorists fighting DAESH.

 

p.s. it's been an attack on a police bus.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Rasis! Those are official moderates dont you know.

[rohala]

yes a bomb attack occured just 43 minutes ago in ankara.but who gives a sh*t.

just some muslims getting killed.the peace loving PKK/YPG!they are good terrorists fighting DAESH.

 

p.s. it's been an attack on a police bus.

you reap what you sow

[Roman Alymov]

Im pretty clear Roman, I dont endorse the Turkish position a jot. The problem is everyone seems to be asserting that by contrast the Russian military and political policy is beyond reproach, and pretty clearly it isnt. Sure, Turkey opened the borders. And equally its pretty clear Russia just created yet more refugees for Europe to deal with, why is that getting ignored?

 

Or prevented much greater stream of refugees in case of Syrian Gov falling and people rushing away from rebels taking control? In any outcome of Civil War somebody will have to go to refuge. My grand-grand-father's brother left for France after Civil War in Russia (as he was in Denikin's army) but he was the only member of family known to do this.

It is just question of proportion - Syrian gov still control AFAK about 60% of population, living 40% to rebels and ISIS (and Kurds) - so numbers-wise Gov victory will bring less refugees then rebels victory (probably even MUCH less, as Gov not cutting heads and burning people for being of wrong religeon

[JasonJ]

 

Im pretty clear Roman, I dont endorse the Turkish position a jot. The problem is everyone seems to be asserting that by contrast the Russian military and political policy is beyond reproach, and pretty clearly it isnt. Sure, Turkey opened the borders. And equally its pretty clear Russia just created yet more refugees for Europe to deal with, why is that getting ignored?

 

Or prevented much greater stream of refugees in case of Syrian Gov falling and people rushing away from rebels taking control? In any outcome of Civil War somebody will have to go to refuge. My grand-grand-father's brother left for France after Civil War in Russia (as he was in Denikin's army) but he was the only member of family known to do this.

It is just question of proportion - Syrian gov still control AFAK about 60% of population, living 40% to rebels and ISIS (and Kurds) - so numbers-wise Gov victory will bring less refugees then rebels victory (probably even MUCH less, as Gov not cutting heads and burning people for being of wrong religeon

IIRC, most of the Syrian refugees were running from the Syrian government more than anything else.

[Roman Alymov]

IIRC, most of the Syrian refugees were running from the Syrian government more than anything else.

 

Then why they were running all the way to Europe, risking their lives and paying lots of money to traffickers, not to rebel-controlled territories next door for free?

[JasonJ]

 

IIRC, most of the Syrian refugees were running from the Syrian government more than anything else.

 

Then why they were running all the way to Europe, risking their lives and paying lots of money to traffickers, not to rebel-controlled territories next door for free?

40,000 plus gdp per capita country welcomed them.

 

Rebel controlled is hardly a secured environment. I'm just saying, data has been posted here in TN somewhere showing that the most common cause to run was the Assad government.

[WRW]

maybe an old player, maybe a new player

actually heading Ankara on Wednesday to get Visa for next trip to Kabul

[rohala]

That's probably because the war is mostly fought in sunni territory. Any way this discussion is off topic.

 

 

Regarding the explosion in Ankara, I read that the current count of victims is 27 dead and 75 wounded.

 

There is some unconfirmed information that it was a suicide attack with a trapped car.

There is a video that purports to show the explosion. If the car seen driving slowly next to the bus is actually the trapped car, then perhaps it was indeed a suicide attack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyOBR-pfVk4

 

[Roman Alymov]

40,000 plus gdp per capita country welcomed them.

 

Rebel controlled is hardly a secured environment. I'm just saying, data has been posted here in TN somewhere showing that the most common cause to run was the Assad government.

 

I think there are contradicting messages. Anyway it is very logical to any refugee from Syria (and not only Syria as people from other countries also pretending to be Syrians) to tell officials "I want to get residence in Europe because of evil Assad and Russia", not "I am scared of head-cutting freedom fighters you support" or "I have killed few Gov supporters among my neighbors when Gov was loosing ground, and now afraid of retaliation" or "I want 40,000 plus gdp per capita"

[Panzermann]

yes a bomb attack occured just 43 minutes ago in ankara.but who gives a sh*t.

just some muslims getting killed.the peace loving PKK/YPG!they are good terrorists fighting DAESH.

 

p.s. it's been an attack on a police bus.

Who dunnit? Anyone claimed responsibility yet?

[JasonJ]

 

 

 

40,000 plus gdp per capita country welcomed them.

Rebel controlled is hardly a secured environment. I'm just saying, data has been posted here in TN somewhere showing that the most common cause to run was the Assad government.

I think there are contradicting messages. Anyway it is very logical to any refugee from Syria (and not only Syria as people from other countries also pretending to be Syrians) to tell officials "I want to get residence in Europe because of evil Assad and Russia", not "I am scared of head-cutting freedom fighters you support" or "I have killed few Gov supporters among my neighbors when Gov was loosing ground, and now afraid of retaliation" or "I want 40,000 plus gdp per capita"

The data was in question/answer form. I think it was in the immigration thread but that thread is gone due to the bug with Stuart's account. Pretty sure BansheeOne posted it. Rough memory is that to a question to the effect of "who/why you running?" around 55% answered Assad. About 30% answered ISIS. Other choices were there too with lesser numbers, maybe the names of rebel groups.

[Panzermann]

 

 

 

40,000 plus gdp per capita country welcomed them.

 

Rebel controlled is hardly a secured environment. I'm just saying, data has been posted here in TN somewhere showing that the most common cause to run was the Assad government.

I think there are contradicting messages. Anyway it is very logical to any refugee from Syria (and not only Syria as people from other countries also pretending to be Syrians) to tell officials "I want to get residence in Europe because of evil Assad and Russia", not "I am scared of head-cutting freedom fighters you support" or "I have killed few Gov supporters among my neighbors when Gov was loosing ground, and now afraid of retaliation" or "I want 40,000 plus gdp per capita"

Important factor was the chronic underfinancing of the refugee camps surrounding Syria. And the payments have even been reduced the last few years. And I heard that there have been problems between the pro and anti assad groups meeting in the camps and the islamists making trouble too.

[JasonJ]

An old article about it.

 

The Syrian refugee crisis has prompted international calls for solutions. Yet, discussions have paid scant attention to why Syrians are leaving in the first place.

 

We cannot solve a problem if we do not know its root causes, so what better way to understand why Syrians are leaving than to actually ask them?

 

Through the assistance of Syrian humanitarian volunteers I recently met and interviewed nearly 100 Syrian refugee families in the north of Jordan near the Syrian border.

 

These refugees were from Homs, Dara'a, and Rif Dimashq governates, sites that are, as of early October, still mostly under the control of the Free Syrian Army and other moderate opposition groups that were previously supported by the West.

 

I spoke to the refugees about their experiences in Syria and, without fail, every single person said that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, rather than ISIS, was Syria's biggest problem.

 

Most of these people blamed Assad specifically for their displacement.

 

Only three of the families I spoke to thought that Assad could be trusted to stick to a peace agreement.

 

"How can we trust him when he is the one who killed our relatives and destroyed our homes and lives?" one refugee asked me.

 

When I asked the families under what circumstances they would return to Syria, the majority said they never would while Assad remained in power unless, as some of them said, it is to "die a quick death".

 

These responses come as no surprise. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, amongst others, have documented in detail the Assad regime's barrel bombs, missiles, chemical weapons, torture, oppression and collective punishment against civilian populations living under opposition controlled territories.

 

These refugees are also facing chronic shortages in aid in Jordan, which is itself struggling to cope with the number of refugees it is supporting -- an estimated 1.5 million Syrians of whom 630,000 have been registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), on top of other refugee populations from Palestine, Iraq, Sudan and elsewhere.

 

For Syrian refugees who do not have the means to travel to Europe or the luxury of time to wait indefinitely in the 'queue' for the illusive UNHCR resettlement -- an opportunity offered to literally less than one percent of the refugees in the world -- their choice is either a slow death by starvation or to return to Syria and risk being caught in the crossfire in their homeland.

 

My data is based on a small group of refugees. Yet, the findings of another recent, much larger survey of almost 900 Syrian refugees in Germany, conducted by the Berlin Social Science Center and German-based NGO Adopt a Revolution in collaboration with the Syria Campaign and Planet Syria, also shows Assad is a major reason Syrians flee.

 

More than 70 percent of refugees surveyed said they left Syria because of Assad. Only 52 percent said they would ever return to Syria while Assad remained in power.

 

The survey also found that many Syrians would not leave their country if the international community were able to stop the deadly barrel bombs being dropped by the Syrian air force on opposition-held areas. These bombs are uncontrollable and are designed to inflict maximum, indiscriminate devastation.

 

Now Russia has upped the stakes of war in Syria by joining in the bombing fray.

 

Contrary to Russia's claims it is in Syria to fight ISIS, the territories it has attacked thus far indicate its first priority is to support the Assad regime by eliminating the Free Syrian Army and other moderate opposition forces that are (or were previously) supported, trained and funded by the United States, Turkey and the Gulf.

 

Iranian troops and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia are also now reportedly on the ground helping Assad.

 

Cold War politics appears to be alive and well in Syria while Iran also attempts to expand its regional influence, all at the expense of ordinary Syrians whose lives are being destroyed by the ravages of war and the newly strengthened Assad regime.

 

Time will tell, but the number of Syrian refugees is likely to increase in the coming months.

 

If the international community will not squarely face a primary cause of the refugee crisis, it is no wonder Syrians feel compelled to leave death and carnage behind to search for peace and security elsewhere.

 

______________

Suraina Pasha is a PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Sydney. Her research is on the Syrian refugee crisis. The current phase of her research focuses on the lived experiences of refugees in Jordan, being one of the main first countries of asylum.

 

http://m.huffpost.com/au/entry/8308752

Edited March 13, 2016 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

And this.

 

...

92% of respondents to the survey supported by researchers from the Berlin Social Science Center said they were fleeing the fighting, with more than two-thirds (70%) holding the government responsible. Less than half blamed Isis (32%), the Free Syrian Army (18%), Al Qaeda/Nusra (16%) and Kurdish forces (8%).

...

 

https://www.adoptrevolution.org/en/pr-survey/

Edited March 13, 2016 by JasonJ

[BansheeOne]

The data was in question/answer form. I think it was in the immigration thread but that thread is gone due to the bug with Stuart's account. Pretty sure BansheeOne posted it. Rough memory is that to a question to the effect of "who/why you running?" around 55% answered Assad. About 30% answered ISIS. Other choices were there too with lesser numbers, maybe the names of rebel groups.

 

It was a poll conducted by an organization self-describing as "supporting the Syrian Spring" among ca. 900 Syrian refugees, so should obviously be treated with some caution. However, the relevant question was "who was responsible for the fighting (you fled)", with multiple answers possible (because obviously it takes at least two parties to fight). The breakdown correlated somewhat with the provinces people originated from.

 

 

 

https://www.adoptrevolution.org/hintergrund-befragung/

[JasonJ]

Thanks for that. And yeah, caution is necessary. Although 70% leaves comfortable room for error.

[rohala]

Turkish Health Minister says 34 people killed in Ankara bombing, 2 of them attackers.

[Marek Tucan]

Car bomb, right? Anyone claimed responsibility already? Looks like third major attack in quite short time frame in Ankara.

[bojan]

 

It was a poll conducted by an organization self-describing as "supporting the Syrian Spring" among ca. 900 Syrian refugees, so should obviously be treated with some caution. However, the relevant question was "who was responsible for the fighting (you fled)", with multiple answers possible (because obviously it takes at least two parties to fight). The breakdown correlated somewhat with the provinces people originated from.

 

 

It is a prime example of pool coaxed toward one answer. I know, I make such (for less serious things ofc, only cigarettes and drink ).

Need an explanation why?

[bojan]

yes a bomb attack occured just 43 minutes ago in ankara.but who gives a sh*t.

just some muslims getting killed.the peace loving PKK/YPG!they are good terrorists fighting DAESH.

 

p.s. it's been an attack on a police bus.

I actually feel bad for Turkish people, a lot of them very friendly in my experience.

I also feel bad cause Turks fail to see that Erdogan is leading them on the same road Milosevic lead Serbia in '90s. Since your country is larger, more robust and more important "patriotic cheering" part may last longer, but when the fall comes it will be even more impressive and catastrophic.

Hope it never comes to that, but I have a feeling it will. Last time Turks let basibozuk run unchecked and kill people w/o consequence you lost 3/4 of your empire. Smart man would think you learned something from history...

Edited March 13, 2016 by bojan

[rohala]

Car bomb, right? Anyone claimed responsibility already? Looks like third major attack in quite short time frame in Ankara.

I read the Turks claim to have evidence that point to PKK or an affiliated organization. They will announce the results of the investigation tomorrow.

[Simon Tan]

Its getting more coverage than the campaign in Cizre and Sur. Thousands of Moslems died there but they are only mountain Turks.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

IIRC, most of the Syrian refugees were running from the Syrian government more than anything else.

Then why they were running all the way to Europe, risking their lives and paying lots of money to traffickers, not to rebel-controlled territories next door for free?

40,000 plus gdp per capita country welcomed them.

 

Rebel controlled is hardly a secured environment. I'm just saying, data has been posted here in TN somewhere showing that the most common cause to run was the Assad government.

 

Likely most of the ones going to Europe. When you think about it, anyone fleeing ISIS would be more likely to go to Iraq or Jordan, simply because those countries are on the east side of Syria, where ISIS was mostly operating. Its significant the early influx was via Libya, which when you think about it is the easier route from those countries.

 

But Assad is the man to rebuild Syria, so clearly cant be responsible for his own ethnic cleansing, even when he clearly is.

[JasonJ]

 

 

 

IIRC, most of the Syrian refugees were running from the Syrian government more than anything else.

 

Then why they were running all the way to Europe, risking their lives and paying lots of money to traffickers, not to rebel-controlled territories next door for free?

40,000 plus gdp per capita country welcomed them.

Rebel controlled is hardly a secured environment. I'm just saying, data has been posted here in TN somewhere showing that the most common cause to run was the Assad government.

Likely most of the ones going to Europe. When you think about it, anyone fleeing ISIS would be more likely to go to Iraq or Jordan, simply because those countries are on the east side of Syria, where ISIS was mostly operating. Its significant the early influx was via Libya, which when you think about it is the easier route from those countries.

 

But Assad is the man to rebuild Syria, so clearly cant be responsible for his own ethnic cleansing, even when he clearly is.

It's a fair point but I don't think it changes much. First is that I recall ME countries being criticized for not accepting refugees despite sharing Muslim and Arab background. So if any ran off to Jordan, etc, I don't imagine it being many. Another point is that the eastern part of Syria is undoubtedly the less populated portion. There's no doubt that ISIS is also an evil group but so is Assad. If ISIS was pushing from the more populated area, then it would be the case that ISIS would the greatest in blame. But even that wouldn't change that people are also running from Assad. Also, anyone that would be running away to the Shia Iraq government would probably be part of the few that would be willing enough to align with Assad anyway.

 

This tangent started off with the idea that since Assad now controls the majority of the populated areas, the war should end and let him start developing his rule again. While I don't necessarily oppose that as it is likely better than letting the destruction continue, it can be implied from that since now he controls the majority of the population, that he is in support of those areas now, or possibly another step further, was the preferred faction. That is of course incorrect judging from what the refugees have been reporting.