In Syria

[Strannik]

9 hours ago, Josh said:

It will still be cakewalk for the US...

GCC intact after SA is also will be affected?  whatever.

This is very hypothetical as this time anyway and this thread got enough abuse, so I better continue to watch the $/yuan/BRICS trade events.  More practical at this time.

[glenn239]

18 hours ago, urbanoid said:

What you fail to notice is that it's all interconnected more and more, as the world is a small place - and getting smaller. 

Poland and Taiwan are on opposite sides of the Sino-Russians.  Alliances like this have arisen in the past, but they tend to be short lived, sketchy.  Longterm allies tend to share a common frontier, common language, culture, pooled economy.  This is lacking.

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The core national interest is to uphold the Correct World Order™ or at least to do what's possible to not have it replaced with Incorrect World Order™ (which would be a concert of powers, rather detrimental to small and medium states in general). 

No country has any national interest whatsoever to die for a cause, leave alone a lost cause. 

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I'm not wild about Poland directly participating in Ukraine war either (which won't happen without the US/NATO greenlight anyway and such a thing would be costly, including Poland not going at it alone), I'd rather prop up Ukraine enough to make Russia lose as much as possible.

I don't think the Russians are keen on it either, but it seems like under the system Moscow operates by, Poland has a seat at the table because it is a regional power.  The same rules played in Syria with Turkey as well.  Here's my take.  I think Poland has some really strong cards to play here, that if it plays them correctly, it can actually come out very well.  But this is a dangerous game and if Poland must not overplay its hand.  

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I'd rather have them think they're no match against Ukraine.

We differ on this.  I am 99% certain Ukraine is going to lose the war.  I would be shocked if real American planning in the Pentagon was other than that it has been written off.  If Kyiv is smart, Zelensky will be impeached and sent into retirement in the WEst, and Ukraine will turn to Beijing.  Because unless there is some joker coming with drone technology, the NATO card has been played out and has proven to be utterly rotten, useless for Ukraine.

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Chinese victory over Taiwan would embolden other thugs, I'd rather not have that.

China is 25% of the world's population, not a thug.  Kicking in your neighbour's door and getting into their business is a good way to get shot.

Edited April 2, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Josh said:

And OPEC would be equally fucked. 

I think OPEC is doing the West a favor by maintaining its production at the volume it does.  They could probably make more money by cutting production by 50% and charging three or five times as much.  

[glenn239]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

I do wonder sometimes how old Glenn is. I get every impression he'd hate Reagan, however much he loves Trump.

56.  I liked Reagan.  He was unabashedly pro-American.  All Americans.  And he was tough with the Soviets, but he treated them with respect, like Trump.  I like Bush Sr too, I really like Bill Clinton - still think he was a great President.  Didn't like Bush Jr in his 1st term, but towards the end of his 2nd term I thought he'd actually matured into the role and had become a much better president.  My biggest regret with Obama was that he couldn't run for a 3rd term.  I liked Trump overall.  I do not like Biden.  I think he's been a disaster for the US on all fronts.

Edited April 2, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

It will still be cakewalk for the US to destroy Iran 

Like its been a cakewalk for Russia to destroy Ukraine, right?

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Like its been a cakewalk for Russia to destroy Ukraine, right?

The US has an order of magnitude more PGMs and aircraft and wouldn’t need to invade to destroy Iran’s ability to close the Gulf. Also Iran disrupting the oil trade in the gulf cuts off China from its oil supplies just as much as a U.S. blockade, so in a Taiwan conflict scenario it’s hard to see how Iran would be helping China.

[urbanoid]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Poland and Taiwan are on opposite sides of the Sino-Russians.  Alliances like this have arisen in the past, but they tend to be short lived, sketchy.  Longterm allies tend to share a common frontier, common language, culture, pooled economy.  This is lacking.

No country has any national interest whatsoever to die for a cause, leave alone a lost cause. 

I don't think the Russians are keen on it either, but it seems like under the system Moscow operates by, Poland has a seat at the table because it is a regional power.  The same rules played in Syria with Turkey as well.  Here's my take.  I think Poland has some really strong cards to play here, that if it plays them correctly, it can actually come out very well.  But this is a dangerous game and if Poland must not overplay its hand.  

We differ on this.  I am 99% certain Ukraine is going to lose the war.  I would be shocked if real American planning in the Pentagon was other than that it has been written off.  If Kyiv is smart, Zelensky will be impeached and sent into retirement in the WEst, and Ukraine will turn to Beijing.  Because unless there is some joker coming with drone technology, the NATO card has been played out and has proven to be utterly rotten, useless for Ukraine.

China is 25% of the world's population, not a thug.  Kicking in your neighbour's door and getting into their business is a good way to get shot.

I didn't originally imply Poland will take part in the Far Eastern fight, I only recognized the fact that the economic fallout would be painful for most of the world, including us - and I'm ok with that. Should we support the US&Co politically when shit hits the fan? Absolutely. Should we join some inevitable sanction regime? Absolutely.

I'm not interested in the system Moscow operates by and I'm not keen on sharing any kind of table with them. I want the West to secure all the chairs for itself and TELL those others how it will be, as opposed to negotiating with them.

Unless the Russians make several breakthroughs and roll to Ukraine Western borders, and I can't really see it happening, Ukraine won't lose the war totally. Even if they suffer some territorial losses, the core of the state will remain and will hate Russian guts for generations to come and remain Western-aligned - officially or not. We can prop them up for a long, long time, in the big picture it costs peanuts.

China is a large and populous country AND a thug - those things aren't mutually exclusive.

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Josh said:

The US has an order of magnitude more PGMs and aircraft and wouldn’t need to invade to destroy Iran’s ability to close the Gulf. .

The same PGM's they need for the Straights of Taiwan?

[DB]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:43 PM, urbanoid said:

As if Russia could blockade Europe, topkek.

Similarly - as if China could blockade Europe.

Oh, wait, we've had Iran blockading the US East coast, leaves plenty of Chinese assets to cope with the rest of it.

I'm also profoundly interested in learning how China can block the world's energy supplies. Does it just nuke the whole of the middle east and every other oil producer, or does it just stop exporting solar panels?

[ink]

19 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I think OPEC is doing the West a favor by maintaining its production at the volume it does.  They could probably make more money by cutting production by 50% and charging three or five times as much.  

As if on cue:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/saudi-arabia-other-opec-nations-announce-surprise-oil-production-cuts
 

Quote

 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers on Sunday announced surprise cuts totaling 1.15 million barrels per day from May until the end of the year, a move that could raise prices worldwide.

Higher oil prices would help fill Russian President Vladimir Putin’s coffers as his country wages war on Ukraine and force Americans and others to pay even more at the pump amid worlwide inflation.

 

 

[ink]

Interestingly, Russia's diplomatic efforts in the ME, Asia and Africa appear to display a weird kind of inverse success to their disastrous military performance. You've got to hand it to them, unfortunately, since they've achieved one diplomatic coup after another since the start of the invasion:

• Getting China on side is the big one, obviously;
• Keeping India positively neutral certainly counts;
• Garnering support across Africa;
• Closer ties with Iran;
• Continuing to win support from OPEC...

It's not a bad list for a country that could, theoretically, have become as isolated as North Korea last year. Though, of course, it ultimately probably says more about the popularity (or lack thereof) of the West or Global North or whatever it's called these days.

I guess all those Colour Revolutions, Wars on Terror, Arab Springs and Restructuring Programmes are all slowly coming home to roost.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Aside from China, currently that doesnt give them anything. 20 years from now when the African market is considerably more advanced, they could give Europe the finger. But its rather like Brexiteers applauding the Asian trade deal, which barely gives them a quarter of what they just lost in Europe. Even the middle east is still very much an emerging market, at least as far as anything but energy is concerned.

The recent cut in production by OPEC is something of a triumph. But as we are all trying to diversify our economies to other energy forms due to the environmental effects, about the only real winner here is going to be Greta Thunberg. We saw how unsuccessful energy was used as a weapon back in the winter.

Its like that line in 7 ages of man I think, 'all sound and fury, signifying nothing'. Or as Bono once said, the wheels are turning, but you're upside down.

 

[ink]

26 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Aside from China, currently that doesnt give them anything. 20 years from now when the African market is considerably more advanced, they could give Europe the finger. But its rather like Brexiteers applauding the Asian trade deal, which barely gives them a quarter of what they just lost in Europe. Even the middle east is still very much an emerging market, at least as far as anything but energy is concerned.

The recent cut in production by OPEC is something of a triumph. But as we are all trying to diversify our economies to other energy forms due to the environmental effects, about the only real winner here is going to be Greta Thunberg. We saw how unsuccessful energy was used as a weapon back in the winter.

Its like that line in 7 ages of man I think, 'all sound and fury, signifying nothing'. Or as Bono once said, the wheels are turning, but you're upside down.

 

You may be right. Some of these victories might be completely empty. But the ones in Asia certainly aren't. Anyway, I can barely bend my mind to the subject matter now that I've inadvertently elicited a Bono quote from you 😅 ... I wish you had stuck to Shakespeare 😎

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, DB said:

I'm also profoundly interested in learning how China can block the world's energy supplies. Does it just nuke the whole of the middle east and every other oil producer, or does it just stop exporting solar panels?

China produces about 4/5ths of the world's lithium batteries and about 3/4ths of the solar panels.  And no need to "nuke" the Middle East, simply convince OPEC that it will make more money by cutting production.   Oh wait, low and behold, between my observation of such yesterday and this post this morning I see Ink has written,

"As if on cue"....

OPEC cuts production by a million barrels.  You know what Putin would call that?  A good start.

The good news, DB, is that I'm starting to hope that the whole putrid festering mess that is globalism is simply going to collapse under its own violent incoherence without a major war.

[Josh]

14 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The same PGM's they need for the Straights of Taiwan?

No, the ones stored locally at Al Udied. Stand off weapons might be In short supply but the US has hundreds of thousands of bomb guidance kits.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The good news, DB, is that I'm starting to hope that the whole putrid festering mess that is globalism is simply going to collapse under its own violent incoherence without a major war.

Globalization isn’t going anywhere. Most of what we’re seeing is changes to who sells what to who. In the unlikely event western globalization does fall, it will only be replaced by globalization with Chinese characters. The reality will more likely be a more multipolar flavor of globalization.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, ink said:

As if on cue:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/saudi-arabia-other-opec-nations-announce-surprise-oil-production-cuts
 

 

I suspect this response is due to the sagging price of oil more than anything (15 month low), although the Russians cutting their production output unilaterally probably made these cuts much easier to process. The question I have is what motivated the Russian cuts - oil prices, a political maneuver to push OPEC, or declining production ability?

[ink]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I suspect this response is due to the sagging price of oil more than anything (15 month low), although the Russians cutting their production output unilaterally probably made these cuts much easier to process. The question I have is what motivated the Russian cuts - oil prices, a political maneuver to push OPEC, or declining production ability?

What seems to be the case, judging from media reports, is that the cuts are closely coordinated by OPEC - particularly an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Probably, as you say, for mutual benefit.

I remember reading - years ago now - that the Russian oil industry is profitable as long as the price remains above the 40-50 USD range. Presumably, however, the Russian economy as a whole actually relies on a much higher price range.

[Josh]

41 minutes ago, ink said:

What seems to be the case, judging from media reports, is that the cuts are closely coordinated by OPEC - particularly an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Probably, as you say, for mutual benefit.

I remember reading - years ago now - that the Russian oil industry is profitable as long as the price remains above the 40-50 USD range. Presumably, however, the Russian economy as a whole actually relies on a much higher price range.

The guestimate to balance the Russian federal budget is $100/barrel. But what I find interesting is that there was no public negotiation between Russia and OPEC - it seems like they made a unilateral cut and OPEC supported it after the fact. The KSA obviously has a lot of pull in that organization, but the fact that they didn't have to herd cats to achieve this cut makes me think it was simply in everyone's economic interest to pull back production. I'd guess that the reduced Russia production along with western sanctions removed all concerns about losing future market share (typically a big issue) and that it wasn't difficult to agree on quotas as a result. The entire Euro market is open for sales now with little Russian competition.

Given the previous dependence of Russia on western equipment, especially for new projects in remote areas, I wonder if we're not seeing involuntary production cuts on the part of Russia already. It has to happen eventually; there is no one else to supply that equipment and expertise. At some point equipment breaks down and can't be repaired and existing wells run dry without new ones being opened.

[DB]

The higher the price of oil, the greater the pressure to find long term alternatives.

Good.

 

[Josh]

32 minutes ago, DB said:

The higher the price of oil, the greater the pressure to find long term alternatives.

Good.

 

The current move is a market adjustment, as OPEC has been doing for decades. Longer term, Russia might have a slowly declining production rate, but that will just lead to other producers upping production, up to and including the US if prices go high enough (fracking costs more but scales up and down relatively quickly). So this isn't a long term trend line.

[ink]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Given the previous dependence of Russia on western equipment, especially for new projects in remote areas, I wonder if we're not seeing involuntary production cuts on the part of Russia already. It has to happen eventually; there is no one else to supply that equipment and expertise. At some point equipment breaks down and can't be repaired and existing wells run dry without new ones being opened.

One would assume that's already happening... But I do also wonder how much cooperation is still going on through sanctions loop holes.

I just don't have the time to look into it in any serious way right now.

[urbanoid]

19 hours ago, DB said:

The higher the price of oil, the greater the pressure to find long term alternatives.

Good.

This.

We should be building NPPs like there's no tomorrow and stock up for years of use, might also work on efficient ways of mass-scale coal liquefaction.

[glenn239]

23 hours ago, Josh said:

Globalization isn’t going anywhere. Most of what we’re seeing is changes to who sells what to who. In the unlikely event western globalization does fall, it will only be replaced by globalization with Chinese characters. The reality will more likely be a more multipolar flavor of globalization.

I didn't say 'globalization' will fail, I said globalism will hopefully collapse under the weight of its own incoherence before it causes a disastrous war.  One makes economic sense, the other is an intrusive ideology in which, given the inevitable criminal conduct of most of the globe all of the time, must result in endless war as its logical end state.

Edited April 4, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

19 hours ago, Josh said:

The current move is a market adjustment, as OPEC has been doing for decades. 

The important point is that the US was using all its influence to get OPEC to increase supply, and OPEC decided to decrease supply. 

In fact, it's going to take a while to unpack the consequences of all these moves on the world stage in the past few months.  For example, does the Saudi-Iranian deal mean that if the USAF wants to bomb Iran, it will be shut out of the entire Middle East for bases to do so?