In Syria

[Mighty_Zuk]

9 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Nice lection, but i am affraid the time when it was accepted everywhere is now gone

 

I love how Russians can be so incredibly racist toward black people, but the official Russian propaganda policy is that it has the support of the countries "that matter" because some African nations support it. 

Yes, Russia definitely scored a Wakandan ally here.

[urbanoid]

9 hours ago, Strannik said:

 

I thought things are [relatively] peachy in Poland now?

Anyways, may you get the consequences of what you desire.

Not without problems, but we're managing. The fact that we've been diversifying our energy suppliers for quite a few years already certainly helped. 

The same should be done throughout the West in general when it comes to decoupling from China. Even those not supporting the war in general will feel the consequences, it's not like the US Navy will be letting Chinese shipping through.

[Yama]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

Not without problems, but we're managing. The fact that we've been diversifying our energy suppliers for quite a few years already certainly helped. 

The same should be done throughout the West in general when it comes to decoupling from China. Even those not supporting the war in general will feel the consequences, it's not like the US Navy will be letting Chinese shipping through.

Russian Navy might, though 

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Very sensible position. The people in power in your country - you know the ones whose wealth won't be affected by "10x economic mayhem" - they must just love you!

Well, I'd rather not throw additional 20 million people under CCP rule, just like I'm not in favor of abandoning Ukrainians to 'Russkiy Mir'. Neither would bring 'peace of our time' btw, it would just make Russian and Chinese thugs bolder. I'd rather keep both under our boot than have them at our throats. Yes, there are the costs associated, but still less than by not doing it in the long run.

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Ssnake said:

Your fundamental problem is that you have no value for freedom, except maybe your own. You want peace, now matter the costs, as long as others have to pay for it.

I think if we do what you want, that your country is going to be destroyed to a level not seen since towards the end of WW2, and maybe even worse than that.  I think if we do what I want, that your country and the EU will do just fine.   

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

. 

The same should be done throughout the West in general when it comes to decoupling from China. Even those not supporting the war in general will feel the consequences, it's not like the US Navy will be letting Chinese shipping through.

So which is it?  Poland should support Taiwan even though it's obvious from a glance a a map that the Chinese Air Force will come to Belarus and put the boots to your country like it's 1939, or that Poland should 'decouple' economically from China but otherwise, with respect to things like Taiwan, MYOB?  If your opinion is really the latter, then I agree with you - that's a solid principle of a sphere of interest, to have independence for economic wellbeing, but in terms of foreign adventures - no matter how appealing the principle - to be wary, cynical, cautious.

Edited April 1, 2023 by glenn239

[sunday]

Liberty may be at stake in Taiwan, but not in Ukraine. No difference in that regards between Putin and the actor.

[urbanoid]

15 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

So which is it?  Poland should support Taiwan even though it's obvious from a glance a a map that the Chinese Air Force will come to Belarus and put the boots to your country like it's 1939, or that Poland should 'decouple' economically from China but otherwise, with respect to things like Taiwan, MYOB?  If your opinion is really the latter, then I agree with you - that's a solid principle of a sphere of interest, to have independence for economic wellbeing, but in terms of foreign adventures - no matter how appealing the principle - to be wary, cynical, cautious.

Due to obvious reasons Poland won't have much participation in such a war, but will feel its consequences anyway - as will almost everyone. No, decoupling should be done on a scale of 'geopolitical West' in general. We should have never allowed ourselves to be in a position which made us dependent not only on various kinds of 'not-us', but even 'anti-us'.

I don't really consider either support for Ukraine or potential war in defense of Taiwan 'foreign adventures'. Those are things that should be done, as opposed to wasting blood and treasure for 'nation-building' for people who aren't worth it in the first place.

[Mistral]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Due to obvious reasons Poland won't have much participation in such a war, but will feel its consequences anyway - as will almost everyone. No, decoupling should be done on a scale of 'geopolitical West' in general. We should have never allowed ourselves to be in a position which made us dependent not only on various kinds of 'not-us', but even 'anti-us'.

I don't really consider either support for Ukraine or potential war in defense of Taiwan 'foreign adventures'. Those are things that should be done, as opposed to wasting blood and treasure for 'nation-building' for people who aren't worth it in the first place.

You see you are in agreement with him, you just differ on which people are worth it or not.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Mistral

[urbanoid]

Just now, Mistral said:

You see you are in agreement with him, you just differ on which people are worth it or not.

I don't want to 'build nations' and engage in COIN bullshit (and neither does Glenn), where we differ is that I want to defend the 'aspiring'/already established nations with values compatible to ours against our enemies, where Glenn would rather allow our enemies their 'spheres of influence'.

I'd rather bitchslap them when they forget their place (e.g. by trying to tell the nations who'd rather be aligned with us what they are and what they can or cannot do) and make (and enforce) an unwritten commandment of 'thou shalt not establish anti-Western empires'. In between the bitchslaps there should be constant preparation for them, no 'ends of history', no 'peace dividends'. Liberty isn't singing a fucking kumbaya, it's a constant struggle.

[ink]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Due to obvious reasons Poland won't have much participation in such a war, but will feel its consequences anyway - as will almost everyone. No, decoupling should be done on a scale of 'geopolitical West' in general. We should have never allowed ourselves to be in a position which made us dependent not only on various kinds of 'not-us', but even 'anti-us'.

It's when you realise there is no "us" that things get really interesting.

[JWB]

Shadow war heats up as senior Iranian military adviser killed in alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria (msn.com)

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, ink said:

It's when you realise there is no "us" that things get really interesting.

Oh, but there is, partly formally and partly mentally - our enemies see that too.

[Strannik]

5 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Even those not supporting the war in general will feel the consequences, it's not like the US Navy will be letting Chinese shipping through.

If US will have sufficient hulls left.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Strannik said:

If US will have sufficient hulls left.

If the Chinese don't manage to achieve a total/near-total victory over the coalition (most likely it won't be just the US), they likely will - even if just a bit further away in case of failure. 

[Strannik]

15 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

If the Chinese don't manage to achieve a total/near-total victory over the coalition (most likely it won't be just the US), they likely will - even if just a bit further away in case of failure. 

A sea blockade of China likely will be reciprocated by it.  Japan will starve in the dark.   China will not.  Europe will be a shitshow with very limited energy and goods. US will be better off than the rest of the "West".

An interesting version of a future world.

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Strannik

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, Strannik said:

A sea blockade of China likely will be reciprocated by it.  Japan will starve in a dark.   China will not.  Europe will be a shitshow with very limited energy and goods. US will be better off than the rest of the "West".

An interesting version of a future world.

 

Even winning in Taiwan doesn't mean China will necessarily have enough forces for such a gargantuan task as blockade of Japan - and Japan itself isn't exactly a non-issue when it comes to the navy. Europe and the US have their own private pond between them and the US has plenty of energy resources to spare, not to mention the Middle Eastern ones. 

Low availability of goods from China? Good, that'll teach us not to depend on those that shouldn't be depended on.

[Colin]

China cannot sustain it's economy without exports to the West. The pact between the CCP and the people of China is that there is some continuing prosperity and if that goes away, things will get ugly in China pretty quick.

[Strannik]

14 minutes ago, Colin said:

China cannot sustain it's economy without exports to the West. The pact between the CCP and the people of China is that there is some continuing prosperity and if that goes away, things will get ugly in China pretty quick.

Exports are not the goal in itself.  If West continues to sanction China and limit export of their tech to China - then why would China want to continue exchange of their goods for colored paper.  And then guess what will happen.

Might as well now rename this thread  😂

Edited April 1, 2023 by Strannik

[Josh]

5 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Exports are not the goal in itself.  If West continues to sanction China and limit export of their tech to China - then why would China want to continue exchange of their goods for colored paper.  And then guess what will happen.

Might as well now rename this thread  😂

Exports are a bridge to adopting a more domestic consumption model, which is the long term goal. But at around 20% of GDP being exports, they aren’t there yet. It isn’t something they can just change.

The US 5th fleet and CENTCOM bases are sitting in the Persian Gulf. India can easily control the IO. There is no victory that China can achieve that would prevent a far blockade of oil traffic even if we assume the 3rd and 7th fleets cease to exist.

[RETAC21]

15 minutes ago, Josh said:

Exports are a bridge to adopting a more domestic consumption model, which is the long term goal. But at around 20% of GDP being exports, they aren’t there yet. It isn’t something they can just change.

The US 5th fleet and CENTCOM bases are sitting in the Persian Gulf. India can easily control the IO. There is no victory that China can achieve that would prevent a far blockade of oil traffic even if we assume the 3rd and 7th fleets cease to exist.

Further, they tried to be there post 2008, but as the catastrophic crack down on degenerate tech industries in the last few years has shown, they have a huge dependency on providing cheap exports to Western countries in exchange for technology to fuel the local industries and are suffering from the cutthroat competition from other Asian countries.

[Strannik]

34 minutes ago, Josh said:

US 5th fleet and CENTCOM bases are sitting in the Persian Gulf. India can easily control the IO.

Re: 5th fleet- and Iran will be just sitting looking at it's main export/import being blocked. Right... 

India would stay neutral most likely.

20% is not catastrophic, war effort would consume the slack.

But we are not there yet, right now we are looking at the EU - China dance.  Let's see how it unfolds.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Strannik

[BansheeOne]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

A sea blockade of China likely will be reciprocated by it.  Japan will starve in the dark.   China will not.  Europe will be a shitshow with very limited energy and goods.

Just like last winter! 😶

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

Just like last winter! 😶

Did Russia blockade Europe?

Do continue trolling.

[BansheeOne]

But, but, we were going to shiver in the dark, and the economy was going to collapse without Russian gas! We were promised! 😢