glenn239 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) Reports that a new Russian AA laser shot down an Israeli UAV in late May. Israelis deny incident, https://geopolitics.news/middle-east/russian-laser-weapon-shot-down-an-israeli-drone-over-syria-during-combat-tests/ If true, could be a test of the Peresvet system, which would be well suited for static base defense in Syrian weather conditions. Edited June 11, 2020 by glenn239 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Rus MP BTR-82A damaged by IED during joint Rus-Turk patrol in Idlib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty_Zuk Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 They could have helped a lot when Turkey did their intense drone attacks.As far as I understand Turkish drone attacks campaign was only effective first couple of days, with surprise effect (as Syrian Army was not used to threat from above). Oh, so that's how SAMs work? Does it always take several weeks to respond, if there is even a response, or is a very, very early warning from the other side sufficient? From what I see, there are a few options.1)The SAA does not have the ability to physically move its S-300, rendering it ineffective.2)The S-300 cannot engage medium sized drones, rendering it ineffective.3)The S-300 was jammed by Turkish EW, rendering it ineffective. If they can't shoot down Turkish drones flying high and slow, how can they ever attempt to shoot down manned aircraft or their munitions? I guess the next excuse will be "if it was an S-400 it would definitely succeed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Pretty sure the only S300 battery is no where near Idlib. I believe this is where it used to live, but the imagery is too blurry now for me to make anything out. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Syria/@35.1659947,36.2622307,513m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x1518e6dc413cc6a7:0x877546f4882af620!8m2!3d34.802075!4d38.996815 It shouldn't have taken a modern SAM to shoot down a drone though. I can only assume that the SAA simply stopped even traveling with SAM coverage until the Turks started bombing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 S300MM, as in monkey model variant. An impression of ineffectiveness now could result in an unpleasant surprise later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 IIRC they moved up Buk systems which are a more suitable platform for engaging drones. But that move should not have taken so long, though the delay may have been because they were allocated to defend some installation or airfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1)The SAA does not have the ability to physically move its S-300, rendering it ineffective.2)The S-300 cannot engage medium sized drones, rendering it ineffective.3)The S-300 was jammed by Turkish EW, rendering it ineffective. 4) Israeli Air Force knows positions of S-300 batteries and uses standoff missile attacks to stay outside its engagement envelope or F-35's to thread through radar coverage when engaging targets in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 It also seems unlikely the Russians would let the Syrians fire or that the Syrians would want to risk their one off toy on anything that might shoot back. Shooting a missile that I assume costs hundreds of thousands of dollars at a small diameter bomb is also not a particularly cost effective practice. I wouldn't be surprised if the S300 battery has never fired a missile yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 ​ They could have helped a lot when Turkey did their intense drone attacks.As far as I understand Turkish drone attacks campaign was only effective first couple of days, with surprise effect (as Syrian Army was not used to threat from above). Oh, so that's how SAMs work? Does it always take several weeks to respond, if there is even a response, or is a very, very early warning from the other side sufficient? No idea what “several weeks to respond” you are talking about – as in reality I know Turkish operation was launched on Feb 27, 2020 with initial success, but already on March 1, 2020 from 3 to 9 Turkish attack drones were shot down by SAA and Turkish air activity over frontline effectively ceased, giving SAA ground troops to move forward and recapture positions along important M5 highway. As for me, SAA AD proved to be extremely effective and fast responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 (edited) I think there are many (five?) eyes trained on wherever the S300 may be, to harvest as much data as possible on it whenever it launches. The Russians are, understandably, not going to oblige for the sake of an ally like Syria. I would be surprised if the S300 tech deployed there was anywhere near the fully capable Russian version. Too much potential for a security breach otherwise. Edited June 17, 2020 by Nobu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Russian S350 is the new S300 version entering service. I would be surprised if the systems sold to Syria were anything but the full-up Russian version. Why have an export model of an already obsolecent SAM system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 ​ They could have helped a lot when Turkey did their intense drone attacks.As far as I understand Turkish drone attacks campaign was only effective first couple of days, with surprise effect (as Syrian Army was not used to threat from above). Oh, so that's how SAMs work? Does it always take several weeks to respond, if there is even a response, or is a very, very early warning from the other side sufficient? No idea what “several weeks to respond” you are talking about – as in reality I know Turkish operation was launched on Feb 27, 2020 with initial success, but already on March 1, 2020 from 3 to 9 Turkish attack drones were shot down by SAA and Turkish air activity over frontline effectively ceased, giving SAA ground troops to move forward and recapture positions along important M5 highway. As for me, SAA AD proved to be extremely effective and fast responding.Just as the SAA do not have experience going up against a proper military, the Turks also don't have experience using their drones in contested airspace, to be fair not many countries do. So the Turks got a "honeymoon" period that's now over, but they were able stunt the SAA offensive at the time, giving their proxy forces time to regroup and dig in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 No idea what “several weeks to respond” you are talking about – as in reality I know Turkish operation was launched on Feb 27, 2020 with initial success, but already on March 1, 2020 from 3 to 9 Turkish attack drones were shot down by SAA and Turkish air activity over frontline effectively ceased, giving SAA ground troops to move forward and recapture positions along important M5 highway. As for me, SAA AD proved to be extremely effective and fast responding. Just as the SAA do not have experience going up against a proper military, the Turks also don't have experience using their drones in contested airspace, to be fair not many countries do. So the Turks got a "honeymoon" period that's now over, but they were able stunt the SAA offensive at the time, giving their proxy forces time to regroup and dig in. Or, more likely, to be withdrawn from combat and relocated to Libya where they are now driving force of Turkish-Emirates proxy war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 I think there are many (five?) eyes trained on wherever the S300 may be, to harvest as much data as possible on it whenever it launches. The Russians are, understandably, not going to oblige for the sake of an ally like Syria. I would be surprised if the S300 tech deployed there was anywhere near the fully capable Russian version. Too much potential for a security breach otherwise. The Greeks use a version of S300. I doubt the Russians are overly worried about the technology being compromised by Syria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolas93TS Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 And Israel has been training against those same batteries since at least 2015. Reportedly, Israel was even training Turkish pilots on S-300 countermeasures in the long gone times of their close relations, although it is questionable how good was Israeli experience in those day and how much of that knowledge actually stayed in Turkish airforce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 All the same, I would be wary of drawing conclusions from Russian air defense performance in Syria at any level. Moscow is not going to show its hand for Assad's sake, and may be trying to give an impression of less capability than it actually has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty_Zuk Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 Pretty sure the only S300 battery is no where near Idlib. I believe this is where it used to live, but the imagery is too blurry now for me to make anything out. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Syria/@35.1659947,36.2622307,513m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x1518e6dc413cc6a7:0x877546f4882af620!8m2!3d34.802075!4d38.996815 It shouldn't have taken a modern SAM to shoot down a drone though. I can only assume that the SAA simply stopped even traveling with SAM coverage until the Turks started bombing them.You don't just send 1 type of asset to deal with a threat. That's the thing about multi-layered protection, that many layers can engage the same threat, just at different times. Their Pantsirs were blown to bits, so the sensible move would be to send Buk, Tor, and S-300 batteries at the same time. Because those are MALE drones, a Tor would have limited capability against them. Their short range means they'll struggle with high flying threats, and their main advantage is mobility. Buks and S-300 would alternate fires depending on the fire envelope and severity of the threat. I assure you, expending a couple dozen missiles from the S-300 would definitely be worth the huge losses they took from these drones. The initial location of the S-300 is irrelevant though. Masyaf is less than 130km from Idlib, and Aleppo is less than 170km. With only a few hours movement, they could have easily covered the entire relevant border area. 1)The SAA does not have the ability to physically move its S-300, rendering it ineffective.2)The S-300 cannot engage medium sized drones, rendering it ineffective.3)The S-300 was jammed by Turkish EW, rendering it ineffective. 4) Israeli Air Force knows positions of S-300 batteries and uses standoff missile attacks to stay outside its engagement envelope or F-35's to thread through radar coverage when engaging targets in the north. How is the IAF relevant here? The IAF wasn't destroying S-300 batteries for the TuAF. ​ They could have helped a lot when Turkey did their intense drone attacks.As far as I understand Turkish drone attacks campaign was only effective first couple of days, with surprise effect (as Syrian Army was not used to threat from above). Oh, so that's how SAMs work? Does it always take several weeks to respond, if there is even a response, or is a very, very early warning from the other side sufficient? No idea what “several weeks to respond” you are talking about – as in reality I know Turkish operation was launched on Feb 27, 2020 with initial success, but already on March 1, 2020 from 3 to 9 Turkish attack drones were shot down by SAA and Turkish air activity over frontline effectively ceased, giving SAA ground troops to move forward and recapture positions along important M5 highway. As for me, SAA AD proved to be extremely effective and fast responding. The first day of the operation is irrelevant. Spotting movements and talk of a future operation should not be outside the reach of the SAA. I think there are many (five?) eyes trained on wherever the S300 may be, to harvest as much data as possible on it whenever it launches. The Russians are, understandably, not going to oblige for the sake of an ally like Syria. I would be surprised if the S300 tech deployed there was anywhere near the fully capable Russian version. Too much potential for a security breach otherwise.It also seems unlikely the Russians would let the Syrians fire or that the Syrians would want to risk their one off toy on anything that might shoot back. Shooting a missile that I assume costs hundreds of thousands of dollars at a small diameter bomb is also not a particularly cost effective practice. I wouldn't be surprised if the S300 battery has never fired a missile yet.All the same, I would be wary of drawing conclusions from Russian air defense performance in Syria at any level. Moscow is not going to show its hand for Assad's sake, and may be trying to give an impression of less capability than it actually has. Why sell the S-300 to Syria then? Seems like a lose-lose situation. First, the reputation of the system falls because potential customers see that Syria keeps getting battered from the sky, and even sees one of the most effective airstrike campaigns on its soil in recent years, despite the system's presence.Second, Russia's reputation falls because it's content with this situation persisting.Third, the system's reputation further falls when the SAA criticizes the system's inability to engage relevant threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 All the same, I would be wary of drawing conclusions from Russian air defense performance in Syria at any level. Moscow is not going to show its hand for Assad's sake, and may be trying to give an impression of less capability than it actually has. The conclusion seems to be that stand off missiles with a low RCS and nap of the earth approach are necessary in a modern SAM environment. F-35's are also clearly able to thread between radar sites with impunity, but the known unknown is the reports of S-500 component testing for the past few years. The Americans were throwing a fit over Turkey having the S-400 and F-35 at the same time, but the Russians in Syria and the Israeli F-35's flying over Syria probably achieve something to close to the same effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 The S-300 system was possibly not moved because the ground forces running the advance did not have the authority to do so, and those in charge of air defence who could were fixated on protecting against air strikes against installations etc.This is somewhat plausible as the SAA has never made a point of having SAM systems covering their ground troops, as the typical threat from the sky has only been small drones etc. which are not a large threat and can be taken care of with AAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 I wouldn't think a heavy SAM like S-300 would be appropriate for drones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 (edited) I wouldn't think a heavy SAM like S-300 would be appropriate for drones.I agree somewhat as above. But Zuk is correct - it is certainly capable of engaging MALE drones and would have been a well used in that role, especially if layered with Buk systems - in which case it can pick targets outside of the Buk envelope. Edited June 19, 2020 by KV7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 Interview with Russian specialist on Pantsir in Syria and Libya, https://www.defenseworld.net/feature/42/Russian_Pantsir_Air_Defense_System__Sitting_duck_or_Top_Dog_#.Xu0dIkBFyUk Interesting tidbit - one of the systems lost to the IAF this year was tracked by a cell phone left by one of the operators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 Have the Syrians actually been complaining about Russian air defense ineffectiveness? I think the missiles, monkey models or not, are there to force other players to account for them. I would not be surprised if there were explicit orders not to fire unless cleared to do so by Moscow. The Russians may be harvesting data in the skies over Syria as well, for the sake of S500 development. They are clearly playing their own game there, not Syria's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty_Zuk Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 Interview with Russian specialist on Pantsir in Syria and Libya, https://www.defenseworld.net/feature/42/Russian_Pantsir_Air_Defense_System__Sitting_duck_or_Top_Dog_#.Xu0dIkBFyUk Interesting tidbit - one of the systems lost to the IAF this year was tracked by a cell phone left by one of the operators.Doesn't sound believable. It is an order of magnitude harder to track a specific cellphone than any radar, even if said radar was only activated briefly. It's certainly within the capability of the IDF, but logically should not be used because it's a less accurate, less reliable, more dangerous method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty_Zuk Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 Have the Syrians actually been complaining about Russian air defense ineffectiveness? I think the missiles, monkey models or not, are there to force other players to account for them. I would not be surprised if there were explicit orders not to fire unless cleared to do so by Moscow. The Russians may be harvesting data in the skies over Syria as well, for the sake of S500 development. They are clearly playing their own game there, not Syria's.Not plausible either. Maybe the first few airstrikes, an enemy would try to account for these systems. But not when they know the SAA are not allowed to use them. And Russia is more capable of harvesting data through its own installations in Hmeimim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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