Simon Tan Posted October 4, 2014 Posted October 4, 2014 Peace with the PKK is the Big Thing for the AKP in the next elections.
Colin Posted October 4, 2014 Posted October 4, 2014 Turkey's regional power broker plans is in tatters, he's has bit the hands of the US and Israel. The Kurds are the only hope they have of salvaging something from this nightmare.
NickM Posted October 4, 2014 Posted October 4, 2014 Turkey's regional power broker plans is in tatters, he's has bit the hands of the US and Israel. The Kurds are the only hope they have of salvaging something from this nightmare. And ironically, the Turks are losing ground to their traditional rivals, the 'thrice cursed Persian heretics';
DADI Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 The sensible, if cynical, thing was leaving Assad and his russian pals deal with his own problems with their resources.Yes, maybe the qatari, saudi & co would have complained; hope they enjoy it when the beheaders show up at the front door and start to work them with dull blades . Even if we had jumped in right away and delivered Syria to the "good guys" it would have been most likely a re-run of Libya: with the syrian army smashed by western bombings and government in disarray how long the perfumed exiles types would have lasted against guys like the above? Safe bet they would have been screaming for western troops to save them from the "not so moderate" islamists very soon.It will not be long before ISIS and Assad are the only game in town anyway. Unless the turks invade en masse of course but I cannot help being cynical about Erdogan motives. Not that I don't agree, but with one, let's say, missing observation:That is the way of the ME. They are ALL dull blade beheaders. Assad's dad (Hafez) killed 30 thousand Muslim Brotherhood members + families, and got to rule his country with for another 2 decades without even a whisper against him in Syria. His son, perhaps an idiot, perhaps unwilling at first to draw blood - found himself killing 170,000 and counting, without a chance to ever rebuild his country. Erdogan's first bet was on Assad, than on the "rebels", than against the coalition, now for it... Erdogan's role is a slippery as it gets.Remember the Turkish Flotilla? The Mavi Marmara?One of the IHH leaders on the boat, backed fully by the turkish then PM.... Was killed in a U.S attack against ISIS targets.. Turkish humanitarian aid organizations involved in terror... Hmmmm - Who would have thought?The simple Middle-Eastern truth always take a wide turn before entering the comprehension zone..
EchoFiveMike Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 The durka-durka never fails to deliver pure, reagent grade dysfunction. S/F....Ken M
BansheeOne Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 I keep saying that Erdogan has shown an almost Palestinian propensity to bet on the wrong horse. First he has this glorious vision of making Turkey sort of a hegemonial power in the old Osman area again, fostering good relations with everybody including good neighbors like Iran and Syria, cutting off the one very well-working relationship with Israel in the process. Then Arab Spring rolls up, he cuts off the old regimes including Mubarak and Assad for the hot new Sunni guys in town. Oops, the hot new Sunni guys get stomped on in Egypt and turn into genocidal maniacs in Syria-Iraq, taking Turkish hostages and bringing Turkey's NATO allies down on top of them. Well played.
EchoFiveMike Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 It's the CIA and Mossad brain control devices forcing them to do stupid shit!S/F.....Ken M
bojan Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 ...First he has this glorious vision of making Turkey sort of a hegemonial power in the old Osman area again... Oh, he still has ambitions, don't think he does not.
BansheeOne Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 No doubt. It's just that now he supports the Iraqi Kurds, if I was one of them I would get as far from the area as humanely possible.
Simon Tan Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 No can do.....that be Kurdistan. Ultimately this is going to further weaken and isolate the AKP. YAY!
Brian Kennedy Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 That's some pretty mighty cynicism by Turkey -- doing an I-told-you-so warning about Kobani falling while Turkish tanks are massed and chilling out on the border... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/08/world/middleeast/isis-syria-coalition-strikes.html
firefly1 Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 . It is amazing what poor memories the US (and rest of the West) have. The US (supposedly) promised Turkey that once it invaded Iraq that there would NOT be an independent Kurdish state, and it was upon this promise that Turkey assisted. Since then the US has rubbed Turkey's nose in its inability to affect the US allowing an independent Kurdish area - OF COURSE Turkey is taking advantage of this opportunity to get the Kurds taken down a peg or two. Turkey does not want the Kurds of northern Iraq and Afghanistan united and able to stir up problems with the Turkish Kurds. Politics aren't quite as simple as some like to think (and some countries take diplomatic promises seriously). .
Brian Kennedy Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 "Taken down a peg or two" in my mind doesn't necessarily mean "letting them get slaughtered by psychotic maniacs while you sit by and watch from a few miles away..." sure, it's rational, but it's pretty vile.
Andreas Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Realpolitik. Let's see how this will work in a world of high-level media frenzy. All the best Andreas
Marcello Posted October 7, 2014 Author Posted October 7, 2014 (edited) That's some pretty mighty cynicism by Turkey -- doing an I-told-you-so warning about Kobani falling while Turkish tanks are massed and chilling out on the border... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/08/world/middleeast/isis-syria-coalition-strikes.html Basically he is dangling the carrott of turkish ground troops to bait Obama into smashing Assad. He should not be trusted IMHO. Edited October 7, 2014 by Marcello
firefly1 Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Basically he is dangling the carrott of turkish ground troops to bait Obama into smashing Assad. He should not be trusted IMHO. . Why not ? He has been played for a fool by the US for a decade..
bojan Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Why not ? He has been playing US for a fools for a decade.. Fixed.
DKTanker Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 . It is amazing what poor memories the US (and rest of the West) have. The US (supposedly) promised Turkey that once it invaded Iraq that there would NOT be an independent Kurdish state, and it was upon this promise that Turkey assisted. Just so we're clear. You're bagging on the US for breaking a promise it may never have made, which hasn't been broken had it been made, and in any case is completely out of the hands of the US?
Simon Tan Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 The Kurds know that ISIS will burn itself out and the real challenge is carving out a big old slice of Turkey. Kobani makes the Turks look like the assholes they are.
Brian Kennedy Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Starting to wonder how long it's going to take for ISIS to burn itself out, though -- nobody seems to be doing too well against them on the ground, and the armies that could stomp them are sitting tight.
Simon Tan Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 The KRG are somewhat stabilized but the Iraqi Army is still garbage in many areas. The half hearted, PR driven US coalition is substantially less effective than Team Sunni in terms of delivering raw combat power into battlespace. 98% of the friction is down to one man.
WRW Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Starting to wonder how long it's going to take for ISIS to burn itself out, though -- nobody seems to be doing too well against them on the ground, and the armies that could stomp them are sitting tight.these bast...rds will be around a long time
Andreas Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Why the hell is turkey still in NATO. Look at a map of the region. All the best Andreas
firefly1 Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Just so we're clear. You're bagging on the US for breaking a promise it may never have made, which hasn't been broken had it been made, and in any case is completely out of the hands of the US? . It was heavily reported in the US, western and Turkish press, just not "officially" confirmed. Trying to squirm out of reality doesn't work. Turkey's attitude towards an independent Kurdish state has been consistent and vocal, it is only its pragmatism towards Iraq and then Syria that has meant that it goes along with other nations aims. (The same probably applies to Iraq, Afghanistan and even Iran with regards to the Kurds - however "moderate" they are they have been screwed for centuries and there seems little prospect for them to "get out from under" under present diplomatic incompetence and various self-seeking countries' own concerns. .
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