Meanwhile In Africa...

[sunday]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Yes, in some cases justified, in some cases not. Definitely won't simp for Russian-backed coup by a military junta, supported by Wagner - Nuland doesn't look bad in comparison. 

Wait until she helps to organize a "Polish spring".

[urbanoid]

I'm not particularly concerned about that hypothetical scenario. Meanwhile there are actual, existing problems that should be addressed and as long as the interests coincide - and they do with the US far more often than they don't, even if the reasons for that are different - I have no problem with strict cooperation. Not a fan of Biden or Nuland in the 'ideological' sphere, but bitchslapping the enemies of the West should be...uh... bipartisan (or multipartisan in case of most of Europe). 

[JWB]

 

[sunday]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I'm not particularly concerned about that hypothetical scenario. Meanwhile there are actual, existing problems that should be addressed and as long as the interests coincide - and they do with the US far more often than they don't, even if the reasons for that are different - I have no problem with strict cooperation. Not a fan of Biden or Nuland in the 'ideological' sphere, but bitchslapping the enemies of the West should be...uh... bipartisan (or multipartisan in case of most of Europe). 

Enemies of the West come in a variety of types and kinds.

Most effective enemies are those that work from the inside.

[urbanoid]

Our internal matters are ours to fix, if we can, the external enemies are to be bitchslapped on general principle.

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Our internal matters are ours to fix, if we can, the external enemies are to be bitchslapped on general principle.

It is important to deal with internal enemies first, or one could come back from a victorious war only to find that all the things and ideals he went to fight for have been destroyed by internal subversion.

Perhaps the problem is not so acute in Poland, as those accusations of Authoritarian trends leveled by Euro NPCs against Poland and Hungary show.

Edited August 8, 2023 by sunday

[urbanoid]

Not a fan of a restored Russian Empire or a Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere, especially that fixing western internal fuckups is a job for decades. We act when we have to (or are forced to) and I don't really care whether it's Biden or a president more to my liking putting them in place or at least trying to. The time to act is when they get uppity and try to upset the Correct World Order™. Sorry, no anti-Western empires allowed, try that and we war you.

[sunday]

Currently the US of A behaves as the anti-Western empire.

Edited August 8, 2023 by sunday

[Josh]

41 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Niger extracts ~5% of the world's uranium and accounts for ~15% of French and ~10% of EU imports, so it doesn't sound like the end of the world.

Oh, ok. I thought I had read a post that indicated 80% came from there. 10-15% is a non issue.

[urbanoid]

4 minutes ago, sunday said:

Currently the US of A behaves as the anti-Western empire.

The West is the geopolitical term, I'm more or less comfy as long as the west is on top and uppity wannabes are kept in check. The West may go further left or the pendulum may swing to the other side as people get more and more pissed off with 'progressive' silliness, regardless which happens I still want the West to be on top and possibly integrated. And if Russia is trying to fuck with 'French' uranium in Niger it should probably also be addressed on the general principle, not even necessarily in Niger itself. I don't have to like French policies to be on the French side here on general principle.

[sunday]

Ideas and moral principles are more important than geopolitics. If not, then why fight?

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

The US presence in Niger is larger than I would have thought, apparently because of the previous coups at Mali and BF. The French contingent is apparently larger for the same reason. It seems inconvenient for Boko Haram related operations to be sure, but not super important. For the French I don't know how hard it is to source an alternative for Uranium, but I assume they keep a fair amount in country for just such an occurrence while they find a new seller. Perhaps they can come to some arrangement with Iran...

The one to keep an eye on apparently is Algeria.  As it stands the Niger coalition is outgunned even assuming some Wagner support, but Algeria is rattling sabers, and it is an African military powerhouse.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/niger-coup-algeria-military-intervention-direct-threat

The Algerian president said on Saturday any military intervention in Niger would be a direct threat to his country and is "absolutely rejected".

Edited August 8, 2023 by glenn239

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

I  am hearing that Wagner groups is behind the coup in Niger and other political unrest.  When will putin and his pillox cease and desist?

 Russia is now geared up industrially for war just as Ukraine is on the backfoot and seems to be fading.  All those Lancet drones now pouring off the production lines will sooner or later run out of decent targets in Ukraine, at least in comparison to increasing production numbers.  Perhaps they'll start sending them to other countries in search of targets.   I bet Niger's kids are quick studies and would be happy to take France to Lancet school.  That is what Macron must have been asking for in Ukraine, is it not?

 

Edited August 8, 2023 by glenn239

[sunday]

19 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The one to keep an eye on apparently is Algeria.  As it stands the Niger coalition is outgunned even assuming some Wagner support, but Algeria is rattling sabers, and it is an African military powerhouse.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/niger-coup-algeria-military-intervention-direct-threat

The Algerian president said on Saturday any military intervention in Niger would be a direct threat to his country and is "absolutely rejected".

Plus Algeria is a major gas supplier to Europe, with subsea pipelines to Spain and Italy.

Wonder when the Algerians will blow up those pipelines, like the Russians did with Nord Stream...

[urbanoid]

7 minutes ago, sunday said:

Ideas and moral principles are more important than geopolitics. If not, then why fight?

I'd say geopolitical approach is tied to security and security is... generally placed higher on the list of priorities than abstract ideas? Sure, ideally I'd like the West to be different in quite a few departments, safer, less prone to ideological silliness, less infested with thirdworlders etc., but I'd choose even the current one over what its enemies offer, even if sometimes I might be holding my nose quite a bit while doing so (especially that most of this silliness is pretty much absent from Central Europe). 

There won't be any kind of 'salvation' coming from this Eastern shithole upsetting the Correct Order™, actually the contrary will happen and in Central Europe we know it very well and act accordingly. Neither will it come from the Far Eastern one that evidently plans to do the same on another continent, which results in the potentially affected countries gathering around the US - and the Asian allies of the US aren't especially 'progressive' either.

[sunday]

One of the best outcomes of the WWII Eastern Front is that horrible Nazi Germany and horrible Communist Russia were  wearing each other out. Most efficient way to win against multiple enemies is to have those fighting one against other.

That is what Neocons, for calling them something, could be doing currently in Ukraine: use Ukrainian bodies and Western weaponry to wear out the Russian arsenal, while depriving a future unified Russian of Ukrainian bodies.

Plus good dividends from Western defense manufacturers that are reaping a windfall of orders.

Considering recent history between Poland and Russia, were I a Pole, I could be tempted to approve that.

However, were I be able to choose an antagonist to Clown World, I would very much prefer Russia to China. The former are less enamored with Totalitarianism.

Also, Clown World needs an antagonist. God knows what would they do without some real external menace.

[glenn239]

Biden’s Ukraine strategy is failing

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/biden-s-ukraine-strategy-is-failing/ar-AA1eXHM1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0d8da9940147471d82a7884fc46bcd4c&ei=20

The war, for its part, is exposing some key Western military limitations. The U.S. set out to bleed Russia in Ukraine but it is America, not Russia, that is running out of critical munitions

Edited August 8, 2023 by glenn239

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

 Russia is now geared up industrially for war just as Ukraine is on the backfoot and seems to be fading.  All those Lancet drones now pouring off the production lines will sooner or later run out of decent targets in Ukraine, at least in comparison to increasing production numbers.  Perhaps they'll start sending them to other countries in search of targets.   I bet Niger's kids are quick studies and would be happy to take France to Lancet school.  That is what Macron must have been asking for in Ukraine, is it not?

 

It seems more likely Russia builds up its own inventory of ammunition, assuming the war in Ukraine ends any time soon, given the fact its cupboard is very bare in PGMs of all types. Dumping their shiniest toys in Africa when they seem to have a dearth of 152mm seems a little fanciful.

[Josh]

40 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Biden’s Ukraine strategy is failing

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/biden-s-ukraine-strategy-is-failing/ar-AA1eXHM1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0d8da9940147471d82a7884fc46bcd4c&ei=20

The war, for its part, is exposing some key Western military limitations. The U.S. set out to bleed Russia in Ukraine but it is America, not Russia, that is running out of critical munitions

That is rather ignorant analysis. It draws a broad equivalency to munitions donated to Ukraine and munitions donated to Taiwan or needed by the US in a war with the PRC, when in fact the Venn diagram of those two things probably only cross over on a few manportable missile types.

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Plus Algeria is a major gas supplier to Europe, with subsea pipelines to Spain and Italy.

Wonder when the Algerians will blow up those pipelines, like the Russians did with Nord Stream...

Algeria is relatively close to Russia politically though, also a major customer for Russian weaponry. I don't think those ties would survive if the Russians blew up a major pipeline (or both) the Algerians use to export gas to Europe, and it's where over 80% of Algerian gas ends up - mostly by pipelines, but also as LNG. Economic fallout for the Algierians would be catastrophic, as much of the export profit goes into social programs.

[sunday]

No, no, no, no.

It would be the people most interested in the correct running of the pipeline the ones that shall blow it up.

So, the Algerians.

Did you not learn anything about the Nord Stream thing?

😁

[urbanoid]

Good for meme war purposes, definitely, but I don't think the Algerians would be amused. Most likely Ukraine would get several hundred 'Eastern' tanks and a lot of other stuff that would be (totally by accident!) found somewhere in the desert, ready for shipping.

Algeria supplies ~12% of Europe's gas, let's say 10% of that via pipelines, hardly an end of the world for Europe in general (though possibly a major pain in the ass for Italy and to a much lesser extent Spain, which has a shitload of LNG facilities), at the same time Europe accounts for over 80% of Algerian gas exports. Europe did ok with the supply cut of ~30% due to sanctions on Russia.

As for the Nord Stream, I'll pass. I'm just... happy with whoever blew it up.

[Roman Alymov]

On 8/2/2023 at 7:59 PM, Roman Alymov said:

I wonder where this guys are getting Russian flags from. I mean i do not think it is not every day comodity in local shops  - can't just walk in and buy Russian (or Serbian) flag...

Seems like flags are locally produced https://t.me/wagnernew/9584

[Roman Alymov]

On 8/8/2023 at 8:27 PM, glenn239 said:

 Russia is now geared up industrially for war just as Ukraine is on the backfoot and seems to be fading.  All those Lancet drones now pouring off the production lines will sooner or later run out of decent targets in Ukraine, at least in comparison to increasing production numbers.  Perhaps they'll start sending them to other countries in search of targets.   I bet Niger's kids are quick studies and would be happy to take France to Lancet school.  

I do not think Niger is in big need for relatively com[lex toys like Lancets. Simple MANPADs and ATGMs (may be even captured Western ones) would make the life of Western colonial forces nightmare.

[seahawk]

3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I do not think Niger is in big need for relatively com[lex toys like Lancets. Simple MANPADs and ATGMs (may be even captured Western ones) would make the life of Western colonial forces nightmare.

Nothing better than giving Western weapons sent to anti-Russian forces to kill Russians to the people in Niger to kill Westerners.