China's Peaceful Rise

[futon]

Three Chinese warships down under.

The Australian Defence Force is keeping three Chinese warships spotted 150 nautical miles from Sydney under close surveillance.

The vessels were first detected in international waters off north-east Queensland last week and have been sailing steadily down the coast in recent days.

"Defence is monitoring the People's Liberation Army-Navy Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai-class Cruiser named Zunyi and the Fuchi-class replenishment vessel Weishanhu, which continue to operate to the east of Australia," an ADF spokesperson said today.

...

https://www.9news.com.au/national/chinese-naval-ships-spotted-150-nautical-miles-from-sydney/143bb31b-1970-44a0-a657-9c8c4dfb6da8

[futon]

Then an unannounced live fire drill by the three down under.

MELBOURNE, Australia (AP) —

Airliners were over the Tasman Sea crossing between Australia and New Zealand when the Chinese navy warned they were flying over a secret live-fire exercise, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said on Friday.

Regulator Airservices Australia warned commercial pilots of a potential hazard in airspace between the countries as three Chinese warships conducted exercises off the Australian east coast.

But Marles said Australian authorities only learned about China’s live-firing plans in international waters midway between Australia and New Zealand from the airlines.

“To be clear, we weren’t notified by China,” Marles told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio in Perth.

“What China did was put out a notification that it was intending to engage in live firing. By that, I mean a broadcast that was picked up by airlines or literally ... commercial planes that were flying across the Tasman,” Marles said.

...

https://apnews.com/article/australia-new-zealand-chinese-flight-diverted-08067898b342c350ce7ef7cec56717de

[futon]

A 2nd live fire drill by the three down under.

The New Zealand government says the Chinese navy conducted a live-fire exercise in international waters near the Pacific nation on Saturday, a day after it held a similar drill between Australia and New Zealand that forced airlines to divert flights.

"We are aware of reporting from the New Zealand Defence Force that the Chinese naval Task Group has advised of a second window for live firing activity, on Saturday afternoon," a spokesperson for Defence Minister Judith Collins said in a statement.

Sailors on the New Zealand Navy frigate Te Kaha observed live rounds being fired from a Chinese vessel's main gun, the statement said, adding that the task group had "advised via radio channels of its intent to conduct live firing".

...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-23/chinese-warships-australian-coast-live-fire-drills-new-zealand/104970682

 

 

PRC media counter response.

The Chinese Defense Ministry on Sunday rejected Australia's accusation about the recent activities and drills of three Chinese warships, calling Australia’s remarks completely inconsistent with the facts while stressing that China's actions are in full compliance with international law and practices and will not affect aviation safety.

Countries should adapt to the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy's legitimate voyages at far seas, which will become increasingly routine as the PLA Navy continues to expand its capabilities, a Chinese military affairs expert told the Global Times on Sunday.

In response to Australia's accusation of China's lack of transparency and the Australian air traffic control agency's notices for some airlines to adjust their flight plans amid the recent activities of three Chinese warships and live-fire drills in waters near Australia, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian stated in a statement on Sunday that the relevant remarks from the Australian side are completely inconsistent with the facts.

...

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202502/1328914.shtml

[Ivanhoe]

4 hours ago, futon said:

A 2nd live fire drill by the three down under.

The New Zealand government says the Chinese navy conducted a live-fire exercise in international waters near the Pacific nation on Saturday, a day after it held a similar drill between Australia and New Zealand that forced airlines to divert flights.

Chinese aggression is irrelevant. All eyes must be on eastern Europe, don't you know.

[futon]

5 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

Chinese aggression is irrelevant. All eyes must be on eastern Europe, don't you know.

It makes for a quiet visit to us by Charles De Gaulle.

https://news.usni.org/2025/02/19/u-s-japan-and-french-naval-forces-wrap-up-drills-in-philippine-sea

[Ivanhoe]

Nice!

[glenn239]

Thought to be the 300th J-20 in service,

https://theaviationist.com/2025/09/17/china-300th-j-20/

[glenn239]

Chinese unmanned (?) B-21 style bomber apparently in testing says talking frog,

 

Edited September 19, 2025 by glenn239

[Josh]

6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Chinese unmanned (?) B-21 style bomber apparently in testing says talking frog,

 

I am a little doubtful that is what we are looking at. Certainly it is a large platform, but there’s little way to measure mass or internal volume. It might be a competing ISR type rather than strike.

[Roman Alymov]

"It's a sad story about the short-sightedness of the Chinese comrades, which also speaks to the real independent level of their critical technologies. That is, of course, China is greatly helped by the huge domestic market and access to the global market, and yet the desire to challenge the hegemon and at the same time "save money" on key nodes is somewhat naively infantile. Of course, this does not negate their breakthrough in many previously lagging niches, but fans of idolizing the achievements of the PRC can't hurt to take a little cold shower.:

C C919 is stalling: COMAC has reduced its supply plans by almost three times The Commercial Aviation Corporation of China (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China or COMAC) is not fulfilling previously announced plans to produce the C919 narrow-body airliner, according to reports from three Chinese airlines operating this model. The program of China's first C919 medium-haul aircraft continues to face serious challenges. The "big Three" Chinese carriers: China Eastern Airlines, Air China and China Southern, expected to receive 32 aircraft by 2025. In fact, by September, COMAC had delivered only five airliners to customers. According to Bloomberg, COMAC has lowered its own production plan for the C919 this year to 25 aircraft instead of the originally announced 75 (https://t.me/AviaCT/31803 ). In January, the manufacturer announced its intention to supply 30 airliners and reach a rate of 50 airliners per year in 2025. In March (https://t.me/AviaCT/31803 ), on the contrary, the plan was raised to 75. However, the real pace of production lags far behind expectations. The main vulnerability of the C919 is its almost complete dependence on foreign components. In the summer, the United States temporarily suspended exports of CFM engines (https://t.me/AviaCT/33364 ), which was a serious blow to the program. In addition, supply is complicated by problems in production chains: shortages affect almost all key systems.

   The COMAC C919 is designed for 158-192 passengers and should compete with the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX. However, he has not yet received certification from the FAA and EASA. Sales outside China are sluggish, despite COMAC's active efforts – interest in South and Southeast Asia has not yet translated into actual orders. 🛫️️ AviaNews (https://t.me/+iggi1A5K0Cw4MDJi)

   Yes, as a result, our path is more thorny, but we are building the MS-21 independently, with most of the key technologies localized in Russia. Including the composite wing, which is a really cool design where we are ahead of the competition. And having thrown down the gauntlet to the West, we are fighting a hard battle with a bloc that is many times superior to us, while in Beijing they continue to expect that someday Taiwan itself will return to their hands, and they cynically make money from our struggle with the West. Of course, there is no point in making claims against them, because no one promised to stand behind us.. But when the West repeats its experience of opium wars to tame China, it is worth behaving in a mirror manner." (yandex-translation from https://t.me/rusengineer/8169 )

[Mitleser]

 

Fritz thought it do be like that

[urbanoid]

"I have a sense that we're witnessing the final break with the Chinese "hide your strength, bide your time" doctrine of Deng Xiaoping. A new China has arrived, one that bows to no one.

A few reflections from a week in Asia, including a series of conversations in Beijing.

In short, I think that in 10 years of talking to Chinese people, I've never seen such immense self-confidence, a sense of power and superiority over others, as now. Among experts, diplomats, Party officials.

And above all – I've never seen such clarity about Chinese intentions. Usually our work involves digging through layers of party line about "China's peaceful rise" or "neutrality towards Russia", only then – using arguments, provoking – to extract what the interlocutor really thinks. This time, it comes unprompted – and it's quite striking.

A few takeaways from the conversations:

On territorial disputes in the region: It's time for you to start living in the new reality, not the old one. Stop listening to the old powers, and listen to the new power instead. And that power is China. We've been talking about maritime law (UNCLOS) for 20 years now, and it leads nowhere. The truth is, we have the military strength and we'll win; you must recognise all our claims in the South China Sea. When an elephant walks, it can trample ants. It should consider the fate of the ants, but don't hold it against him.

On economic goals: The latest Five-Year Plan has one aim: to prepare the Chinese economy for confrontation with the US. It's about creating an autonomous industrial system, resilient to shocks. When we win the technological and industrial competition with the US, "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan will happen by itself, because no one will even try to stop it. That's the "preferred option", but the Taiwan issue will be resolved within 10 years anyway. If Europe wants to keep earning here, it should invest in those capabilities and fill the technological gaps we need from that perspective. If not, then follow the lead of a few Japanese firms selling cheap fast food in China – that'll be your way to make a bit of money.

On nuclear weapons development (China aims for parity in strategic weapons with the US and Russia by 2035): Yes, we're developing capabilities, but that won't affect our "no first use" doctrine. Why? Because we already have conventional dominance in the Western Pacific, so strategic nuclear weapons are needed for one thing only – to knock the idea out of the US's head that they can stop a conventional war by means of a limited nuclear strike on us. So the expansion of our strategic forces basically stabilises the situation in that area.

These are a few snapshots from some of the conversations, which were under Chatham House rules (can be quoted, but without attributing the speaker).

 

To that, I'll add a general conclusion from a dozen or so conversations in Beijing, aimed at finding a way out of the EU-China conflict: slim chances. Essentially, as a starting condition for talks, the Chinese are demanding unconditional surrender from the EU: withdrawal of tariffs, anti-subsidy proceedings, export controls, coordination with the US, and a change in rhetoric. And if Europe didn't have such weak cards in hand, we'd increasingly feel that it can't back down – because it'll be crushed industrially and geopolitically.

That's it for today; I'll repeat once more: it's not the content that shocks me, but China's openness about its intentions. And above all, the self-confidence I've never seen before.

Is it justified? I don't know if rubbing Trump's nose in it a few times, combined with a belief in the decline of the West, isn't turning into triumphalism. China has its own problems too, which it masks with strength. And I wouldn't count us out in Europe, because flexing muscles is precisely meant to make us give in."

https://x.com/J_Jakobowski/status/1991780548910456908

 

[sunday]

I wonder about the ancestors of that Jakub Jakóbowski, and why his tribe wants USA to make war to China.

[urbanoid]

No need to sniff around and look for larger noses, he also said nothing about 'wanting things'. He's an analyst of OSW, a rather respected institution in Poland.

Quote

About us

The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) was established in 1990 in Warsaw as a public institution. It was created to meet democratic Poland’s demand for analytical research on the processes that had occurred in the Soviet Union, and later in the states that emerged following its collapse. At present, the OSW’s portfolio includes Russia, Eastern and Central Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Balkans, Germany, the Baltic and Nordic states, China, Turkey and Israel. In addition, we carry out research focused on specific sectors, for example the EU’s energy policy, transport, trade and digital connectivity in Central Europe, as well as on European security.

The OSW holds the status of a state legal person on the basis of the parliamentary act of 15 July 2011. Its main tasks include:

preparing analyses, expert opinions and forecasts;

compiling reports about the major developments and political, social and economic processes occurring in Poland’s international neighbourhood, and making them available to Polish state administration;

inspiring, organising and conducting research focused on the states and regions from the OSW’s research areas;

spreading knowledge and expertise on the state of and future trends in the political, social and economic fields, and on the development of international relations in the OSW’s research areas;

promoting Polish analytical expertise abroad.

The OSW’s key tasks are funded from the state budget on the basis of an annual decision by the Polish Parliament. The Centre employs more than 40 analysts on a permanent basis. It is independent in its work. Its director is appointed by the Polish Prime Minister from among candidates nominated by the OSW’s seven-member bipartisan Board.

Quote

Deputy Director of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) and the head of the China Department, having previosly served as the coordinator of the „Connectivity in Eurasia” project and a Senior Fellow on China’s economy. Formerly a Taiwan Fellow at Soochow University in Taipei and a European China Policy Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). He holds a PhD in political science from the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), based on a dissertation on China’s foreign economic policy towards the Global South. He gives lectures at the Warsaw University and the Warsaw School of Economics. Member of a number of international projects and associations, including the Think Visegrad, China Observers in Central Europe (CHOICE) and the Horizon 2020 EU-STRAT project.  In 2012-2015 he worked as an exports consultant for Polish small and medium-sized enterprises in East Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States markets.

Expertise

China’s foreign economic policy

transport, digital and energy connectivity in Eurasia

international political economy

China’s economic and political relations with Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union

[sunday]

Mearsheimer is a respected scholar in International Relations, and you have no issues berating him, so color me skeptical.

[urbanoid]

Mearsheimer is inconsistent, self-proclaimed realist who says that great powers exist and always will and it's realistic to expect them to do things to enhance their power and position and at the same time blames (but only the US/West) for... doing things he considers realist in outlook, like enhancing their power (NATO expansion after WARPAC and USSR folded). At the same time he claims that if NATO wasn't doing things he considers a cornerstone of realist policies, then Russia wouldn't either - i.e. it would also be unrealistic and wouldn't be trying to reassert control of the old imperial/Soviet lands/sphere of influence.

His accusations of Western actions being fueled by idealism are just that - accusations. The ideals are generally a cover and it's no different in case of Western policies. Ask a random 20-year old if he believes that politicians are acting based on the ideals they (allegedly) believe in and he/she will likely look at you as if you were a clown, yet Mearsheimer  claims that Western actions are based on ideals and not interests.

That makes him either a fraud or... the greatest romanticist in the field of international relations. 

 

 

[sunday]

Yep, that is the thing about this.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

His accusations of Western actions being fueled by idealism are just that - accusations. 

His accusations are irrelevant.   The perception in Beijing, I assume, is that Western idealism is being driven by Western weakness.  Which loops back, I assume, to Chinese confidence about the future.

Edited November 21, 2025 by glenn239

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

His accusations are irrelevant.   The perception in Beijing, I assume, is that Western idealism is being driven by Western weakness.  Which loops back, I assume, to Chinese confidence about the future.

Tbh he did tell the Chinese, right there in China, that when it comes to defending its security interests the US is an absolutely ruthless great power which merely hides behind liberal ideals. At the same time he's accusing US/Western policy of being ideologically driven when it fact the ideology is merely a cover. Inconsistent.

Also inconsistent is assigning the blame to the West when it comes to Ukraine 'for going into Russia's backyard' with his calls to contain China, which involves remaining involvied in 'China's backyard' - in the latter case he says 'there are no good and bad guys' just great power politics, ya know?'. 

Also for a 'realist' guy who's supposed to shy away from moral considerations and focus on interests, which he honestly does in case of US-China rivalry, he doesn't extend the same courtesy to Western actions wrt to Russia/Ukraine or for Israel. Yet more inconsistency.  

 

 

[sunday]

For someone that happily accepts inconsistency when applying the rules of the "rules-based international order", you show quite the ideological rigidity when discussing Mearsheimer.

Of course, if one is open to the consideration of the current Gazan conflict as genocidal, then Mearsheimer stances look more consistent than the ones of his neocon adversaries.

[urbanoid]

Just now, sunday said:

For someone that happily accepts inconsistency when applying the rules of the "rules-based international order", you show quite the ideological rigidity when discussing Mearsheimer.

Of course, if one is open to the consideration of the current Gazan conflict as genocidal, then Mearsheimer stances look more consistent than the ones of his neocon adversaries.

Ah, so the problem is not Mearsheimer being inconsistent, the problem is little old me pointing out his inconsistencies, that he's contradicting his own theories? Maybe it should be called 'selective realist school of international relations'?

'Rules-based international order' is a useful tool if it serves Western interests, I don't believe in it anymore than those big names out there, but I can say it openly, as I'm just a guy on the internet forum. My considerations are whether something is good for the West or bad for the West, I'm open about it, I don't have to hide behind 'the rules'. 

Then again I'd appreciate it more if your reply was more to what I wrote than myself. 

[Josh]

45 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

His accusations are irrelevant.   The perception in Beijing, I assume, is that Western idealism is being driven by Western weakness.  Which loops back, I assume, to Chinese confidence about the future.

I doubt anyone seriously considers the West idealistic anywhere. I cannot imagine China cares one way or the other. Their aggressive diplomatic posture seems based on a perception of physical and cultural superiority.

[sunday]

20 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ah, so the problem is not Mearsheimer being inconsistent, the problem is little old me pointing out his inconsistencies, that he's contradicting his own theories? Maybe it should be called 'selective realist school of international relations'?

'Rules-based international order' is a useful tool if it serves Western interests, I don't believe in it anymore than those big names out there, but I can say it openly, as I'm just a guy on the internet forum. My considerations are whether something is good for the West or bad for the West, I'm open about it, I don't have to hide behind 'the rules'. 

Then again I'd appreciate it more if your reply was more to what I wrote than myself. 

No, the problem is not Mearsheimer being inconsistent because he is not. Genocides are not justified, and reciprocity does not apply here because the terror attack in October 7th was not a genocide.

Keep with the might-makes-right Utilitarian doctrine, but please do not complain very much once that turns against you.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, sunday said:

No, the problem is not Mearsheimer being inconsistent because he is not. Genocides are not justified, and reciprocity does not apply here because the terror attack in October 7th was not a genocide.

Keep with the might-makes-right Utilitarian doctrine, but please do not complain very much once that turns against you.

Mearsheimer and the theory of realism is literally the 'might makes right' one. And even that he applies selectively, condemning some for putting his theory into action while justifying others.

[sunday]

I prefer to interpret realism as an example of the impossibility of peace without justice, at least applied to great powers. 

Melians would continue to be thrown under the bus, like Iceland during WWII, but those small conflicts usually resolve themselves with minimum damage.