China's Peaceful Rise

[glenn239]

Possible.  I assumed it was a corruption issue.

[Josh]

11 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Possible.  I assumed it was a corruption issue.

Still far more likely, but the positions involved are all outward facing posts. If there was a finance or interior ministry involved I’d not have entertained the thought.

[Nobu]

On 10/13/2023 at 9:56 PM, Strannik said:

And now US establishment is starting to realize they're in fact an insane cult deep People's Liberation Army intelligence operation spreading fake news, meddling in politics and attempting to destabilize the state 🤦‍♂️🤣

FIFY

Edited October 29, 2023 by Nobu

[Josh]

I bet that will go over well:

"The Women’s Congress, held every five years, has long been a forum for the ruling Communist Party to demonstrate its commitment to women. The gesture, while mostly symbolic, has taken on more significance than ever this year, the first time in two decades that there are no women in the party’s executive policymaking body.

What was notable was how officials downplayed gender equality. They focused instead on using the gathering to press Mr. Xi’s goal for Chinese women: get married and have babies. In the past, officials had touched on the role women play at home as well as in the work force. But in this year’s address, Mr. Xi made no mention of women at work."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/asia/china-communist-party-xi-women.html

 

[Josh]

https://www.newsweek.com/china-japan-philippines-defense-assistance-1840132

[Strannik]

Milestone:  China traded more with developing countries than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined. It was one of the clearest signs yet that China and the West are going in different directions as tensions increase over trade, technology, security and other thorny issues. 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e

[glenn239]

Some progress it appears on the problem of a surplus of Russian holdings of Indian Rupees,

Russian-Indian barter: Russia spends S-400 on 24 cargo ships (bulgarianmilitary.com)

[TrustMe]

33 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Some progress it appears on the problem of a surplus of Russian holdings of Indian Rupees,

Russian-Indian barter: Russia spends S-400 on 24 cargo ships (bulgarianmilitary.com)

Is this Bulgarian website report credible? i've never heard of it before.

[Josh]

I had not realized how popular Li was.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/why-mourning-former-premier-li-keqiang-forbidden-china-opinion-1840864

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, TrustMe said:

Is this Bulgarian website report credible? i've never heard of it before.

It is true, strange it took almost 10 days to reach Western press ( https://tass.ru/ekonomika/19109261?ysclid=loka6bfw7p510238762 )

"At the shipyards of India, 24 cargo ships will be built by the Russian order until 2027

According to Dmitry Dubovik, director of the Caspian International Integration Club "North - South", the first four vessels are planned to be laid in 2024
ASTRAKHAN, October 25. /tass/. The construction of 24 cargo ships for their operation in the Caspian Sea is planned until 2027 at the Goa shipyards in India with the participation of the Russian Export Center. This was announced at the international forum in Astrakhan by the director of the Caspian International Integration Club "North - South" Dmitry Dubovik.

"It was decided to open production <...> in India at Goa shipyards. They confirmed to us their readiness to start production of our ship models. There are three of them - chemical carriers, bulk carriers, ships for the transportation of goods in containers. We are ready to issue 24 ships in three years - this is a very high pace today," he said, noting that the first four ships are planned to be laid in the first quarter of 2024.

Cargo ships will be used in the Caspian Sea. As Dubovik clarified in an interview with TASS, their construction is planned with the participation of the Russian Export Center, the project is planned to be implemented until 2027. Among the advantages of cooperation with India is the price, which will be twice lower than that of Russian manufacturers, as well as business rates of 2-3% instead of 18.6%, which is now offered by the State Transport Leasing Company (STLC).

Commenting on the terms of leasing, the STLC noted that they finance the construction of ships mainly within the framework of state programs and investment projects at preferential rates. "Based on the current macroeconomic situation, the market leasing rates do exceed the level of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by several percentage points. At the same time, STLC finances the construction of water vessels, including cargo vessels, mainly within the framework of state programs and investment projects at preferential rates significantly lower than the market," the press service of STLC noted."

Taking into consideration Russian shipyards are overloaded with orders for years to come, decision to use Indian money to buy something useful is quite reasonable - it is far better then sponsoring US debt.

[Josh]

Caspian Sea? These must be small ships to navigate Russian internal water ways.

[TrustMe]

5 minutes ago, Josh said:

Caspian Sea? These must be small ships to navigate Russian internal water ways.

If I remember correctly there a large canal that goes from the Caspian to the Black.

[Josh]

12 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

If I remember correctly there a large canal that goes from the Caspian to the Black.

Biggish, yes, but not even Panamax large.

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, TrustMe said:

If I remember correctly there a large canal that goes from the Caspian to the Black.

For increased Iran trade.

[TrustMe]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

For increased Iran trade.

No, both Russia and Iran share part of the Caspian sea so they can trade over it directly.

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, TrustMe said:

No, both Russia and Iran share part of the Caspian sea so they can trade over it directly.

I meant the purpose of the ships.

[sunday]

5 minutes ago, Strannik said:

I meant the purpose of the ships.

Interior Russian trade, also. There is an extensive canal network in Russia.

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Interior Russian trade, also. There is an extensive canal network in Russia.

Could be, although if they need those ships internally - they could've been ordered in the years before since Russia always had a positive balance in trade with India.

[KV7]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

I had not realized how popular Li was.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/why-mourning-former-premier-li-keqiang-forbidden-china-opinion-1840864

He was a sort of imagined figurehead for Chinese liberals, who are proportionally not that numerous, though more so among those born between 1950 and 1960, who came of age in the 1980's. 

The article above is a little biased and misleading though, (it misleadingly suggests there is a widespread yearning for a liberal policy shift) especially in regard to economic policy. He did have a commitment to "growth and shared prosperity", but it would have been hard to carry through in liberal framework.

Notably, he was known for a staunch opposition to stimulus programs and to industry policy especially of the "leapfrog" type (i.e. big pushes to skip over outdated technology and go straight towards the leading edge), both of which have been huge success stories for China. 

Generally, China-US hostilities have diminished further the case for his economic program, as US sanctions on technology increase the need for this "leapfrogging" industry policy. 

[TrustMe]

Not strictly China but about Tiawan. If this is a clear example of the Taiwan armed forces then Taiwan is in serious trouble.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67282107

[Josh]

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-exports-drop-more-than-expected-signaling-continued-headwinds-dc57b719

[Strannik]

33 minutes ago, Josh said:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-exports-drop-more-than-expected-signaling-continued-headwinds-dc57b719

Exports are down 6.4% yoy, expected to drop 3.5%.   Imports are up 3%, expected to drop of 5%.

Takeaway: China continues to successfully reorient it's economy towards domestic consumption while US/EU demand has dropped due to decoupling and slowdown.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

6 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Exports are down 6.4% yoy, expected to drop 3.5%.   Imports are up 3%, expected to drop of 5%.

Takeaway: China continues to successfully reorient it's economy towards domestic consumption while US/EU demand has dropped due to decoupling and slowdown.

Also a different picture in yuan:

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Strannik

[Colin]

On 11/4/2023 at 11:30 AM, Josh said:

Biggish, yes, but not even Panamax large.

Likely Handy (<40,000 DWT) or Handymax (50-60,000DWT) normally with their own cargo handling cranes.

[Roman Alymov]

9 hours ago, Colin said:

Likely Handy (<40,000 DWT) or Handymax (50-60,000DWT) normally with their own cargo handling cranes.

Volga-Don channels could only handle ships below 7000 DWT.

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Roman Alymov