China's Peaceful Rise

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

In one thread you can't picture the Chinese being able to hunt US warships in the Atlantic because "geography", in another you are not able to understand that Venezuela could act as an important staging base for next gen Chinese assets to hunt US warships in the Atlantic, even with the clue of "base" given.

And in a war, how long do you think “base” will last inside US tactical fighter range?

[urbanoid]

Uh huh, Chinese power projection to the Atlantic, the NATO lake. Jesus wept.

[Strannik]

9 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Uh huh, Chinese power projection to the Atlantic, the NATO lake. Jesus wept.

I concede China is not Poland, but still given time...

Edited September 8, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

36 minutes ago, Josh said:

And in a war, how long do you think “base” will last inside US tactical fighter range?

What fighter has 1,200nm combat radius w/o refueling? But I am nitpicking.

At least as long as Guam I would think.

However it works both ways - imagine it only takes DF-17s stationed there to threaten Norfolk.

Anyway, we are getting ahead ourselves here, it could be just about VE oil for CN investment... at least in this round.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

Suggesting we move all  US-yet-another-coalition-of-the-willing vs China wargames there

 

[glenn239]

9 hours ago, Strannik said:

What fighter has 1,200nm combat radius w/o refueling? But I am nitpicking.

Josh is way too optimistic about the USAF's options I think.  Venezuela is a large jungle nation, and jungles are not easy to see down into for what's underneath the canopy.  One patch of jungle looks exactly like that other patch with the hypersonic missile launcher under it.  DF-21 mobile batteries operating in Venezuela or Cuba should be able to use their DF-ZF hypersonic glide missiles to target US warships and naval infastructure all the way to Boston and beyond. 

I also doubt much can be expected from the few dozen sorties a day that can be spared by a USAF urgently engaged on about 5 other fronts all over the world.  (If there is one thing Biden has accomplished, it's to make the number of fronts in the next US war as ubiquitous as possible).   USAF operations against Venezuela would have to be from bases in third world countries teaming with people that hate the USA, so opportunities for drone and missile attacks on aircraft at the bases.  Why not just have the USAF blow up their own F-35's and save the trouble?

 

Quote

Suggesting we move all  US-yet-another-coalition-of-the-willing vs China wargames there

I thought about that, but copy-pasting all the quotes over is a pain, so....

Edited September 8, 2023 by glenn239

[Strannik]

Italy will exit BRI.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-10/meloni-signals-to-china-that-italy-plans-to-exit-belt-and-road

[Josh]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-central-bank-peruse-bulk-dollar-purchases-sources-2023-09-11/#:~:text=Companies that need to purchase,said one of the sources.

[kokovi]

On 9/9/2023 at 1:33 AM, glenn239 said:

Josh is way too optimistic about the USAF's options I think.  Venezuela is a large jungle nation, and jungles are not easy to see down into for what's underneath the canopy.  One patch of jungle looks exactly like that other patch with the hypersonic missile launcher under it.  DF-21 mobile batteries operating in Venezuela or Cuba should be able to use their DF-ZF hypersonic glide missiles to target US warships and naval infastructure all the way to Boston and beyond. 

I also doubt much can be expected from the few dozen sorties a day that can be spared by a USAF urgently engaged on about 5 other fronts all over the world.  (If there is one thing Biden has accomplished, it's to make the number of fronts in the next US war as ubiquitous as possible).   USAF operations against Venezuela would have to be from bases in third world countries teaming with people that hate the USA, so opportunities for drone and missile attacks on aircraft at the bases.  Why not just have the USAF blow up their own F-35's and save the trouble?

 

I thought about that, but copy-pasting all the quotes over is a pain, so....

Have you ever heard of synthetic aperture radar and thermal imaging?

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, kokovi said:

Have you ever heard of synthetic aperture radar and thermal imaging?

 

In terms of SAR and thermal imaging, I doubt the latter would be of much use.  The former presumably would require launchers to reposition assuming the satellites do not get shot down, assuming that the Chinese do not trust their decoy launchers to be fully reliable of absorbing the damage.

 

Edited September 11, 2023 by glenn239

[Rick]

From our local university's economics professor 

https://commentaries.cberdata.org/

[urbanoid]

Russian gas exports to China are a fraction of what they used to sell to Europe, looks like the profit margins are too:

Quote

Russia will sell natural gas to China at almost a 50% discount compared to European buyers

Russia expects to sell gas to China at almost half the price compared to European buyers, Bloomberg reported.

Gas for China will average $271.6 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2024, versus $481.7 for buyers in Europe and Turkey.

A new economic outlook revealed that Russia expects to sell gas to China at a steeply discounted rate over the next three years, far below the price European buyers will pay, according to a Bloomberg report.

The report, citing an outlook through 2026 from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, showed that Moscow will sell pipeline natural gas to China at an average price of $271.6 per 1,000 cubic meters next year.

Buyers in Europe and Turkey, on the other hand, will face an average price of $481.7.

Those prices should remain through 2026, with gradual reductions over time, per Bloomberg.

This year, meanwhile, Russia expects to sell gas to China at an average of $297.3 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the remaining clients in Europe and Turkey will pay an average of $500.6.

Meanwhile, Moscow anticipates state-run energy giant Gazprom to supply natural gas to China on a $400 billion contract, via the Power of Siberia connection.

Russia and China's economic ties have deepened since last February, when Vladimir Putin ordered the "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Because Russia's standing on the global economic order has weakened significantly, it has become increasingly reliant on China for trade.

Thousands of companies have left the country, it's navigating historic economic sanctions, and most of its Western trade partners have turned elsewhere — leaving China with the upper hand.

"Clearly Russia is much more dependent on China to provide it with the imports and advanced manufactured products it needs, while Russian markets represent a negligible secondary opportunity for Chinese businesses," Yale researcher Jeffrey Sonnenfeld told Insider in a July interview.

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-will-sell-natural-gas-to-china-at-almost-a-50-discount-compared-to-european-buyers/articleshow/103519305.cms

Well, good for Chynah's rise, whether peaceful or not.

Edited September 12, 2023 by urbanoid

[Strannik]

Beyond hate and anger - after the successful campaign against terrorism and Islamism, Beijing wants conditions in Xinjiang to return to normal   https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/xinjiang-china-kampf-gegen-terrorismus-und-separatismus-ld.1753509

A peculiar article in Neue Zürcher Zeitung - conclusion: "If the human rights situation continues to normalize demonstrably, the EU should initiate dialogue and reconsider the sanctions imposed on China"
 

[Strannik]

3 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Russian gas exports to China are a fraction of what they used to sell to Europe, looks like the profit margins are too:

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-will-sell-natural-gas-to-china-at-almost-a-50-discount-compared-to-european-buyers/articleshow/103519305.cms

Well, good for Chynah's rise, whether peaceful or not.

Aren't they comparing apples and oranges: spot and long term prices?

Remember the long term prices for EU which they decried as "unfair" and switched to spot pricing.

Edited September 12, 2023 by Strannik

[urbanoid]

5 hours ago, Strannik said:

Aren't they comparing apples and oranges: spot and long term prices?

Remember the long term prices for EU which they decried as "unfair" and switched to spot pricing.

At least Turkey should have long term contracts (~400 USD IIRC), there aren't that many buyers left in Europe (of pipeline gas, I assumed that the author of the article wouldn't compare pipeline to LNG, as it wouldn't make any sense).

[Strannik]

41 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

At least Turkey should have long term contracts (~400 USD IIRC), there aren't that many buyers left in Europe (of pipeline gas, I assumed that the author of the article wouldn't compare pipeline to LNG, as it wouldn't make any sense).

That's assuming quality honest journalism 🤣

[Strannik]

China and Venezuela announced elevation of their ties to an all-weather strategic partnership, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Wednesday afternoon.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Strannik

[Strannik]

Amid US tech sanctions, Chinese scientists say they made the world’s most powerful radar chip:

New semiconductor performs at orders of magnitude higher than similar power-amplifying chips in most existing radar systems...

It uses gallium nitride despite export bans by the US government blocking high powered gallium-based semiconductors to China.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3234346/amid-us-tech-sanctions-chinese-scientists-say-they-made-worlds-most-powerful-radar-chip

[Josh]

Chinese defense minister removed.

[Strannik]

19 minutes ago, Josh said:

Chinese defense minister removed.

Supposedly being investigated for corruption.

[urbanoid]

That comment...

 

[Strannik]

Remember US MSM beating Chinese-spy-on-US-via-balloon drums?

Now, seven months later, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tells "CBS News Sunday Morning" the balloon wasn't spying. "The intelligence community, their assessment – and it's a high-confidence assessment – [is] that there was no intelligence collection by that balloon," he said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-bizarre-secret-behind-chinas-spy-balloon/

[glenn239]

Claims that Chinese J-20 is now at the 100 per year mark,

China increases J-20 stealth fighter jet production (defence-blog.com)

[lucklucky]

 

[Strannik]

Granted it's Chinese "communism"