China's Peaceful Rise

[sunday]

Just now, glenn239 said:

I guess the question is, is a Chinese recession 3% growth rate or less than 0%?

Are we assuming Chinese economic statistics are truthful, and reliable?

[Josh]

Also, doesn’t the current growth rate assume 2022 as a baseline, which was a decreased GDP year due to lockdowns?

 

I think putting exact percentages on these values is impossible given the patchy data. My point was more that the government’s methodology for housing statistics seems rather intentionally designed to smooth out severe spikes and drops, such that it isn’t a particularly reliable way of measuring the market in real time.

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Are we assuming Chinese economic statistics are truthful, and reliable?

The numbers (projected estimates) came from the western source.

[sunday]

6 minutes ago, Strannik said:

The numbers (projected estimates) came from the western source.

 But the data must be Chinese.

[Strannik]

"Xi Jinping wants to centralize government finances and impose fiscal discipline on local governments that have lived off the windfall of land prices for the past thirty years."

 

[Strannik]

Another argument on RE/economy 

 

[Josh]

To be fair, the property bubble is being deflated rather than bursting. I’m not predicting a collapse. I’m predicting real growth year over year falling to the 2-3% range.

[Strannik]

Compare this with a RE prices/rates situation in the US.

[Josh]

19 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Compare this with a RE prices/rates situation in the US.

If we're going to talk rates, then I think we have to also entertain the fact that China is entering a period of deflation on top of its property markets losing value. But in any case, it is too early to tell. By the end of the year it should be clear whether China's markets, currency, and rates stabilize or don't.

[JWB]

 

[Josh]

I thought this quote kinda funny:

 

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has a well-known aversion to any social spending, which he has derided as “welfarism,” that he believes might erode the work ethic of the Chinese people.

“Even in the future, when we have reached a higher level of development and are equipped with more substantial financial resources, we still must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism,” Mr. Xi said in a speech two years ago.

Who knew Xi would fit right in the Republican party!

More broadly, one of the problems is that stimulus is difficult now because of local government debt and diminishing returns on infrastructure investment:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/business/china-economy-property.html

 

[RETAC21]

12 hours ago, Josh said:

I thought this quote kinda funny:

 

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has a well-known aversion to any social spending, which he has derided as “welfarism,” that he believes might erode the work ethic of the Chinese people.

“Even in the future, when we have reached a higher level of development and are equipped with more substantial financial resources, we still must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism,” Mr. Xi said in a speech two years ago.

Who knew Xi would fit right in the Republican party!

More broadly, one of the problems is that stimulus is difficult now because of local government debt and diminishing returns on infrastructure investment:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/business/china-economy-property.html

 

It's kind of funny that Xi, that is one of the "princes" (is , thinks the Chinese have gone soft when provided with unfettered capitalism, and doesn't realise that China needs a strong internal market to realise his ambitions. Presumably this time in the country during the cultural revolution have colored his views.

[urbanoid]

Who says he doesn't realize that China needs strong internal market to become less dependent on exports? The Chinese themselves have been saying it for years.

[RETAC21]

30 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Who says he doesn't realize that China needs strong internal market to become less dependent on exports? The Chinese themselves have been saying it for years.

But at the same time they have worked to undercut it, limiting the average Joe access to funding. So it has only been fueled by especulation on the part of the local governments.

[urbanoid]

Very interesting article.

 

Quote

China is still on the wrong track, partly because of fears raised by official demographic projections that suggested that if the one-child policy were to remain in place, the fertility rate would stabilize at 1.8, and the population would peak at 1.5 billion in 2033. These projections also estimated that if all couples were allowed to have two children, the population would peak at 1.6 billion by 2044, and the fertility rate would increase to 4.4-4.5 births per woman.

We now know that all these predictions, much like the ones made in 1980 to justify the one-child policy, are nonsense. Even according to China’s exaggerated official figures, the country’s population began to decline in 2022, with the fertility rate falling to 1.0.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by urbanoid

[sunday]

The risks of political planning based in incorrect statistics.

We will see ourselves in twenty years.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

But at the same time they have worked to undercut it, limiting the average Joe access to funding. So it has only been fueled by especulation on the part of the local governments.

The disconnect is that Xi values control over domestic consumption. He may want an economy less based on exports but he isn’t willing to make changes to push a more free market model if they also enable dissent.

[Colin]

On 8/16/2023 at 6:53 PM, Strannik said:

A Chinese boat, what would it even being doing in the middle of Pacific? - trying to stalk US CBG?  It would become an easy prey.

Around Taiwan- sure, closer to Japan's shores - possible, but out there in a big blue - I don't think so.

Hence why I said the Chinese can control the littoral, but suffer in the Pacific. Keep in mind the majority of subs in the world are DE and not nuke powered. DE subs play an important role, acting a bit like a mobile minefield and require significant resources to find them.

[Colin]

10 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

But at the same time they have worked to undercut it, limiting the average Joe access to funding. So it has only been fueled by especulation on the part of the local governments.

Government polices and regulations being at loggerheads and counterproductive is not limited to only China. Lot's of examples around the world.

[Roman Alymov]

I wonder what will China do if radiation dumping not stopped....

August 24, 08:06
China demanded to stop the discharge of water from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant

BEIJING, August 24. /tass/. China opposes Japan's dumping of water from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant into the ocean and demands that these actions be stopped. This was stated by the official representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

"Despite serious doubts and opposition from the international community, the Japanese government unilaterally began dumping water contaminated as a result of the nuclear accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean. China strongly opposes, strongly condemns this and has already sent an official submission to the Japanese side demanding that these illegal actions be stopped," China Central Television quoted him as saying.

On Thursday, the energy company Tokyo Electric Power announced that Japanese specialists have started dumping the first batch of water purified from radioactive substances from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant into the ocean. The data of the measurements showed that the purified water prepared for discharge was sufficiently diluted with seawater and the tritium content in it, according to TASS calculations, is 952 times less than the permissible safety standard established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and the Government of Japan.

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I wonder what will China do if radiation dumping not stopped....

August 24, 08:06
China demanded to stop the discharge of water from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant

BEIJING, August 24. /tass/. China opposes Japan's dumping of water from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant into the ocean and demands that these actions be stopped. This was stated by the official representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

"Despite serious doubts and opposition from the international community, the Japanese government unilaterally began dumping water contaminated as a result of the nuclear accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean. China strongly opposes, strongly condemns this and has already sent an official submission to the Japanese side demanding that these illegal actions be stopped," China Central Television quoted him as saying.

On Thursday, the energy company Tokyo Electric Power announced that Japanese specialists have started dumping the first batch of water purified from radioactive substances from the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant into the ocean. The data of the measurements showed that the purified water prepared for discharge was sufficiently diluted with seawater and the tritium content in it, according to TASS calculations, is 952 times less than the permissible safety standard established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and the Government of Japan.

Probably nothing. I suspect they don’t really care that much and that mostly they are just whipping up nationalism.

[DB]

It would be funny if it were not sad.

You almost certainly get more radiation exposure if you live in a property built on granite than the additional exposure from bathing in the sea off the beach in Fukushima.

[Strannik]

It would be funny if it were not sad propaganda: 👇 The Economist blaming "autocratic" Xi whose policies are curtailing the supply side model investments which were happening under the watch of "liberal leaning" Jiang and Hu and which this (and many other outfits) proclaimed unsustainable for decade and a half.

 

 

[sunday]

The Economist went SJW too many years ago.

[Strannik]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

The Economist went SJW too many years ago.

More like they follow the party line.

Just highlighting the fallacy of their latest trope that folks like to parrot lately.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Strannik