China's Peaceful Rise

[Wouter2]

Kissinger visited Chine, too, and apparently was received well and got access to Xi. Wonder if anything will come from that. Biden knew about it in advance, not cleat whether or not he thought it was a good idea.

[Strannik]

2 hours ago, Wouter2 said:

Kissinger visited Chine, too, and apparently was received well and got access to Xi. Wonder if anything will come from that. Biden knew about it in advance, not cleat whether or not he thought it was a good idea.

At this point this visit is likely a curiosity for Xi and an attempt for legacy mk.2 for the Dealmaker.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Wouter2 said:

Kissinger visited Chine, too, and apparently was received well and got access to Xi. Wonder if anything will come from that. Biden knew about it in advance, not cleat whether or not he thought it was a good idea.

I think the goal from the Chinese side was to remind the US of when things were much more cordial and that a return to previous policies might return both countries to that state. Also an article I read suggested that the Chinese prefer the situation where the US has a designated negotiator/expert who consistently handles the China portfolio - this arguably hasn't existed in the last two administrations.

[DB]

It's only possible to be cordial when your neighbour is behaving well.

If they're parking their cars on their neighbour's driveway, and moving the fence over the property boundary, not so much.

[Wouter2]

12 hours ago, Josh said:

I think the goal from the Chinese side was to remind the US of when things were much more cordial and that a return to previous policies might return both countries to that state. Also an article I read suggested that the Chinese prefer the situation where the US has a designated negotiator/expert who consistently handles the China portfolio - this arguably hasn't existed in the last two administrations.

It would probably be a good idea to have a dedicated negotiator who knows both China and Taiwan well.

I don't think there is a reason to not have a relatively cordial relationship- given that the economies are so entangled and the climate change is a major threat to both - on condition that the Chinese don't actually attempt to force the Taiwan issue by force. That was possible under the predecessors of Xi, now remains to be seen.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Wouter2

[Josh]

27 minutes ago, Wouter2 said:

It would probably be a good idea to have a dedicated negotiator who knows both China and Taiwan well.

I don't think there is a reason to not have a relatively cordial relationship- given that the economies are so entangled and the climate change is a major threat to both - on condition that the Chinese don't actually attempt to force the Taiwan issue by force. That was possible under the predecessors of Xi, now remains to be seen.

No argument. I was just putting out reasons why Kissinger might have been much more warmly received.

[Strannik]

J11b/J16 might get radar update 

 

[Strannik]

Interesting opinion

 

[Josh]

39 minutes ago, Strannik said:

J11b/J16 might get radar update 

 

I'm not sure why a white radome would imply a GaN radar, though I expect it is in fact an AESA GaN. I can't imagine upgrading to anything else in this day and age.

[Roman Alymov]

Official RusMoD video of recent joint Rus-China navy excercises. Strange to see translator (the guy whom Chineese sailor in live vest is trying to explain something) is not officer but kadet https://t.me/anna_news/53174

[Strannik]

Decoupling from US services on Chinese side

 

[Josh]

China's foreign minister formally removed after disappearing for over a month. No reason given.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/world/asia/qin-gang-china-foreign-minister.html

 

[Strannik]

Educational priorities

 

[Josh]

Deflationary pressure potential combined with high household debt:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/while-everyone-else-fights-inflation-chinas-deflation-fears-deepen-4045cabf#

[sunday]

On 7/25/2023 at 5:19 PM, Strannik said:

Educational priorities

 

Dilbert over Catbert.

[Josh]

Can anyone find a list of what is included in the new draw down aide package to Taiwan?

[Mike1158]

What is going to happen to Africa if countries continue to be taken over via bribery and corruption by the prc?

 

I cannot look at the current situation in Africa without seeing very dark times for Africans indeed.  More refugee's for europe that we cannot afford opr are we going (As France are now) goping to be caught up supporting those wanting to avoid the creepint take over of their nations.  Ugly.

[urbanoid]

Don't give a shit about sub-Saharan Africa, and if their migrants are let in here it's on us (for being dumbfucks), not on them or the Chinese. We should pay the North African Arabs to deal with the problem in the way they see fit if we don't have the stomach for it ourselves (guess we may not, unfortunately).

[KV7]

2 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

What is going to happen to Africa if countries continue to be taken over via bribery and corruption by the prc.

I cannot look at the current situation in Africa without seeing very dark times for Africans indeed.  More refugee's for europe that we cannot afford opr are we going (As France are now) goping to be caught up supporting those wanting to avoid the creepint take over of their nations.  Ugly.

It's roughly the opposite case. The last decades have seen a shift from the stagnation of the 1980's and 1990's following the Volker shock to quite rapid growth in many areas. 

China's engagement with Africa opens many opportunities for African countries, particularly in respect to modernisation of the infrastructure, but the domestic government still need to be competent and the society functional in order to get a good return from such projects. 

The deeper problem is that after the failures of many developmentalist projects started after independence, politics has became quite nihilistic and venal (developing the country started to be seen as a pipe dream, but at least you could get rich out of pretending to govern something) but that can change if sustained development seems attainable. And it clearly is. Frankly if the national leaderships shifted a little towards the Chinese developmentalist model it would be a substantial improvement. 

There is a very good documentary about China in Africa (I forget the name) but it highlights many of the difficulties. For example the main character they follow is some manager in some construction unit working on a railway line, but simple things like getting gravel or food is a major difficulty. There is a local gravel pit, but the orders he places are not filled, and the whole operation is ramshackle. IIRC eventually he ends up having to open his own pit in order to get basic reliable supplies. 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by KV7

[urbanoid]

 

7 minutes ago, KV7 said:

It's roughly the opposite case. The last decades have seen a shift from the stagnation of the 1980's and 1990's following the Volker shock to quite rapid growth in many areas. 

China's engagement with Africa opens many opportunities for African countries, particularly in respect to modernisation of the infrastructure, but the domestic government still need to be competent and the society functional in order to get a good return from such projects. 

The deeper problem is that after the failures of many developmentalist projects started after independence, politics has became quite nihilistic and venal (developing the country stared to be seen as a pie dream, but at least you could get rich) but that can change if sustained development seems attainable. And it clearly is. Frankly if the national leaderships shifted a little towards the Chinese developmentalist model it would be a substantial improvement. 

There is a very good documentary about China in Africa (I forget the name) but it highlights many of the difficulties. For example the main character they follow is some manager in some construction unit working on a railway line, but simple things like getting gravel or food is a major difficulty. There is a local gravel pit, but the orders he places are not filled, and the whole operation is ramshackle. IIRC eventually he ends up having to open his own pit in order to get basic reliable supplies. 

 

Empire of Dust?

[KV7]

12 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

 

Empire of Dust?

Yeah that's it. 

[Skywalkre]

On 7/25/2023 at 8:19 AM, Strannik said:

Educational priorities

 

Whoever made this tweet is a dumbass, plain and simple.  It's easy to look up what degrees are conferred in the US... and those liberal-out-there-ones have always been an incredibly small percentage of all degrees.  When you look at the degrees that are awarded it's a majority are in the fields this tweet considers priorities.  If anything we're awarding too many... because with what little data we have many of these degree holders (about 1/3 across the board from what some numbers show) are never able to land work in their respective fields (yes... even STEM).

[KV7]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Whoever made this tweet is a dumbass, plain and simple.  It's easy to look up what degrees are conferred in the US... and those liberal-out-there-ones have always been an incredibly small percentage of all degrees.  When you look at the degrees that are awarded it's a majority are in the fields this tweet considers priorities.  If anything we're awarding too many... because with what little data we have many of these degree holders (about 1/3 across the board from what some numbers show) are never able to land work in their respective fields (yes... even STEM).

There also is an issue of demand. China can absorb large amounts of relatively mundane STEM graduates (not just academic superstars) because of the huge manufacturing, energy, construction etc. industries. 

The U.S. economic structure is very different, and here the liberal arts and other non-technical degrees serve as a sort of way to screen candidates for their socialisation and intelligence, which employers think is important in many areas of the service economy, including in the admin/middle management roles, which seem to have bloated considerably.

In both the U.S. and China, stem degrees also serve this role, but I think more so in China, as there is a culture of "technical" rather than "human resources management" approach to administration, though this is also a function of the economic structure (i.e. manufacturing firms will naturally want their managers to have an engineering background, whereas service sector firms or those with some important marketing/brand name effort might want people who are "professional, cosmopolitan, cultured and urbane" etc.  I think also in the U.S. there is much more of a sort of "superstar" culture where firms place a much higher wage premium on what they deem to be "exceptional talent and experience" and this is reflected in the inequality of wages within a given occupation. 

In the U.S. and much of the west the demand for those with non-technical degrees is apparent because there is still a sizable wage premium for non-technical higher education, presumably because such degrees show people are likely to be better suited to generic office work than those with only high school education. 

If these degrees are are largely functioning as a screening mechanism, there is a considerable inefficiency, as a large amount of resources are used up in a  sort of positional game that does not in aggregate improve productivity much, except perhaps via some better matching of labour and jobs. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by KV7

[Josh]

5 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Whoever made this tweet is a dumbass, plain and simple.  It's easy to look up what degrees are conferred in the US... and those liberal-out-there-ones have always been an incredibly small percentage of all degrees.  When you look at the degrees that are awarded it's a majority are in the fields this tweet considers priorities.  If anything we're awarding too many... because with what little data we have many of these degree holders (about 1/3 across the board from what some numbers show) are never able to land work in their respective fields (yes... even STEM).

China seems to suffer from the same issue, perhaps more so. Both countries have cultures that have over emphasized college degrees at the expense of tradesmen jobs and have a workforce imbalance (and in the US At least rampant student debt) as a result.

[Josh]

Replacement of leadership in the PLARF.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/01/china-pla-rocket-force-purge-corruption-generals-xi/