China's Peaceful Rise

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

I certainly can’t imagine Xi accepting such an arrangement. I don’t know enough about the economics to know how much that buys China, but point 3 seems like a non starter and not something that the Fed would sully its hands with. I’m guessing this isn’t how the actual offer went down, assuming one was made.

Point 3 - "China clearly states its non-support for Russia." - No problem at all. US clearly states it is supporting one China policy (while arming Taiwan and promoting its separation from mainland China). Whole gang of Western Europe were clearly stating support of Minsk agreements  - only to admit later it was just a trick to gain time to arm Ukraine. Why can't China follow the same best diplomatic practice? 

[Strannik]

Yellen's China trip yields long meetings, 'cordial' tone, but no consensus: 

"The accomplishment of the meeting was the meeting itself, not specific issues,"

[glenn239]

Yellen would obviously not be seen in Beijing as anyone to listen to or respect.

Interesting article on fighter production since Feb 2022,

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/07/09/f-35-is-the-most-acquired-j-20-is-next-sukhoi-flankers-are-4th/

F-35 is the most produced model with 48.  But after that the rest of the top five are all Sino-Russian, a total of 152 J-20, J16, J10, SU34/35

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by glenn239

[TrustMe]

The F16 is still in production, 26 are being built for Morocco.

[glenn239]

22 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

The F16 is still in production, 26 are being built for Morocco.

List only includes the top 5.  For future trends, J-20 will start with its final upgraded engine, so production totals might accelerate.  J-31 will start up soon as well, while presumably J10's will fade to zero.

[Strannik]

Interesting estimates of misc. missile systems 

 

[bfng3569]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:57 PM, glenn239 said:

Blinken seems confused on the concept of other countries having basing rights,

Blinken says he ‘made very clear’ US ‘would have deep concerns’ about Chinese military activities in Cuba (msn.com)

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken “made very clear” during his meetings in Beijing this week that the United States “would have deep concerns” about China increasing its intelligence or military activities in Cuba, the top US diplomat told reporters during a press conference in London on Tuesday.

shocking news!

every country says that.

 

Hell, china says that when a U.S. ship sails through international waters.

Edited July 12, 2023 by bfng3569

[Perun]

8 hours ago, Strannik said:

Interesting estimates of misc. missile systems 

 

Thanks mate

[glenn239]

Potential NATO moves in Asia causing friction with Beijing,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-opposes-nato-s-move-into-asia-pacific-region-warns-of-resolute-response/ar-AA1dJYWd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=82dcdd99a07d42b2bb3410af60d32f2c&ei=17

[Strannik]

Facing an increasingly suspicious research climate, a growing number of Chinese scientists are leaving the United States for positions abroad...

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/13/chinese-scientists-united-states-research-tech-academia-china-initiative/

[Roman Alymov]

China has not forgotten NATO’s 'debt of blood' for bombing embassy in Yugoslavia — MFA
"Isn't NATO the one who has engaged in bloc politics and military operations around the world, threatening other countries with force and challenging the interests, security and values of the world?" Hua Chunying said China has not forgotten NATO’s 'debt of blood' for bombing embassy in Yugoslavia — MFA - World - TASS

[Strannik]

A sober view:

When I returned to the US in 2019, thirty years later, we were still rich, but much less so, and becoming poorer as a group.  Terribly unequal societally; fractured, imbalanced and unkind to one another, with a decaying middle class, daily gun violence, homelessness and crumbling infrastructure; almost unrecognizable from when I left and obviously in rapid decline.  Even now, for many Americans, it probably feels more and more like a fiefdom than a land of opportunity.

 

 

[Strannik]

While the Japanese government has been increasing its military spending, it is doing that for the sake of its own defense and not so that it can take part in a major war.

“The United States should not take it for granted that Japan will simply go along with Washington’s desires or expectations.”

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/07/17/war-with-china-over-taiwan-dont-expect-us-allies-to-join/

 

[Josh]

Realistically Japan cannot allow China to take Taiwan or else its strategic situation becomes hopeless. In any case, their participation wouldn’t be nearly as important as their basing. So long as they allowed that, China would be at a disadvantage.

 

Slowing economic growth in China:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-q2-gdp-growth-slows-08-qq-just-above-expectations-2023-07-17/

[urbanoid]

True, and they definitely don't want to be left alone with China, that's why they're likely to reinterprete the already made reinterpretations of the constitution, which as we know is not a suicide pact. 

[glenn239]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

Realistically Japan cannot allow China to take Taiwan or else its strategic situation alliance with the United States becomes hopeless. 

Fixed it.

Edited July 18, 2023 by glenn239

[Josh]

29 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Fixed it.

Pretty much one and the same. If Taiwan falls or the US pulls out of the Western Pacific, Japan is economically and militarily China's bitch. They either fight for Taiwan when China would be at a distinct disadvantage trying to support a landing or they can wait for China have a new set of ports and airbases that totally break through the first island chain and allow them to seriously threaten the home islands with isolation. If they are not going to just go gently into that good night, then they have to draw the line at Taiwan, not their own shore.

There is a fair amount of evidence that they understand that, current statement not withstanding. But ultimately such decisions are made at the top and are almost more psychological questions than truly political ones.


EDIT: to say nothing of the consequences of China either destroying or possessing Taiwan's semiconductor industry.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Josh

[glenn239]

Some interesting tidbits in this article on J-20 upgraded engines,

 

China's J-20 fighter seems to have a new homegrown engine, after years of struggle - Breaking Defense

[Strannik]

No climate accord with the barbarians 

 

 

[Strannik]

Decoupling- easier said than done.

 

 

[Strannik]

Innovations via IPOs:

 

 

[Strannik]

A good thread with an easy to understand explanation of how top-down system in China works

 

[Strannik]

And the new old yellow scare or DeSantis is desperately trying to stay relevant 

 

[Josh]

34 minutes ago, Strannik said:

And the new old yellow scare or DeSantis is desperately trying to stay relevant 

 

Desantis is desperately trying to ride the white Christian nationalist wave Trump kicked up with little success. I can’t tell for sure if he always sincerely felt that way and is coming out of the closet or just is willing to do anything to win the nomination (except actually disparage trump for his many failures). But either way his campaign is dead and gone. At this point I think he’s just trying to hold on to the #2 slot and praying for an act of god that it even matters.

[futon]

2 hours ago, Strannik said:

And the new old yellow scare or DeSantis is desperately trying to stay relevant 

 

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/48173-pax-americana-vs-pax-sinica-vs-multipolar-world/&do=findComment&comment=1688202