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I get the impression China is bullying for the sake of bullying and India is reciprocating. Outside of the minor loss of life, I don't see it functionally different from the shenanigans the PRC is up to in the SCS. They seem determined to burn any potential neutral bridge they can. Push on everyone in every direction because you can. It makes me think Xi is under a lot of pressure either internally (seems doubtful post 'corruption' purge) or else he feels China's expansion has a deadline. What that could be I don't know; I would assume it would have to be either economic decline or social unrest related.

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Tough to gauge India's domestic cohesion if tested.  It could be that under pressure India as a nation will grow stronger.  It could be that under pressure it will grow weaker and prosecuted minorities backed by China will start causing real trouble.  India's leadership seems to act like they fear the latter more than they hope for the former.

China acts like it has the whip hand and that both sides know it, but it seems not seek anything from India beyond non-interference in its strategic initiatives.  I doubt India believes that inviting Australia and the US to military exercises will cause India's disenfranchised 225 million Muslims to feel less alienated.

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China wanted to make a base in Indonesia but was declined.
 

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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto told his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe (魏鳳和), that his country would not accept a request for a Chinese military base in the country, reports said Friday (Sept. 11).

The conversation occurred during a meeting between the two top defense officials in Jakarta on Sept. 8, according to a report by Indonesian publication Kompas. Indonesia occupies a strategic location on the southern edge of the South China Sea and on the main sea route between China and the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Subianto also excluded the possibility that Indonesia would sign military accords with any other country, a military spokesman said. China would never be allowed to set up a base on Indonesian soil, as the government conducted an active foreign policy based on national freedom, a military spokesman said.

According to a U.S. report about China’s military published Sept. 1, Beijing was looking to expand its reach overseas by opening more bases. Djibouti in the Horn of Africa is one mooted location, but China is considering several other countries, from Sri Lanka and Myanmar, all the way to the Seychelles off the coast of East Africa, CNA reported.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4006820

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On 9/10/2020 at 8:34 AM, Josh said:

I get the impression China is bullying for the sake of bullying and India is reciprocating. Outside of the minor loss of life, I don't see it functionally different from the shenanigans the PRC is up to in the SCS. They seem determined to burn any potential neutral bridge they can. Push on everyone in every direction because you can. It makes me think Xi is under a lot of pressure either internally (seems doubtful post 'corruption' purge) or else he feels China's expansion has a deadline. What that could be I don't know; I would assume it would have to be either economic decline or social unrest related.

How is India standing up for itself when faced with aggressive Chinese behavior bullying?  Is this like the way some schools punish both bully and victim?

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Chinese ships stay in Japanese waters near Senkakus for record 57 hours

Oct 14, 2020

Naha – Chinese coast guard ships that entered Japanese territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea over the weekend left the area Tuesday night, having stayed there for a record 57-plus hours until Tuesday evening, the Japan Coast Guard said.

The two ships left Japanese waters and sailed in the so-called contiguous zone from 8:19 p.m. Tuesday after remaining in the waters for a record 57 hours 39 minutes. The length of time exceeds the previous record set in July, when Chinese vessels spent 39 hours and 23 minutes in the waters.

The two ships had entered the waters near the islands, which are claimed by China, at around 10:47 a.m. Sunday, and attempted to approach a Japanese fishing boat, the coast guard said.

Japan Coast Guard vessels sent to the area repeatedly urged them to leave while protecting the fishing ship. The territorial spats over ownership of the islets have often strained Japan-China relations.

“The situation has continued for more than two full days, and it is very regrettable,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato earlier in the day, adding Japan had repeatedly warned the vessels to leave the waters and “strongly protested” to China over the intrusion through diplomatic channels.

The top government spokesman said Japan is determined to protect its territory.

Meanwhile, China repeated its mantra about the uninhabited islets, saying they are its “inherent territory” without elaborating on why the country’s vessels have remained near the isles for such a long time.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters, “It is China’s inherent right to carry out patrolling and law enforcement in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands, and Japan should respect this,” using the Chinese name of the isles.

It is the longest period Chinese vessels have intruded in the waters since the Japanese government put the islets under state control in September 2012 after buying out a private Japanese owner.

On Tuesday, the coast guard said it also spotted another pair of Chinese vessels sailing in the so-called contiguous zone outside Japan’s territorial waters.

Chinese vessels were seen sailing near the Senkakus for the 37th straight day, according to the coast guard.

[...]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/14/national/china-japan-senkakus-record-57-hours/

 

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Date 20.10.2020

Taiwan, China trade barbs over violent altercation in Fiji

A violent altercation broke out between Chinese and Taiwanese diplomats at a Taiwan National Day celebration in Fiji. Taiwan said an official was hospitalized with a head injury after Chinese officials crashed the event.

China and Taiwan traded barbs on Monday over a violent altercation that broke out between Chinese diplomats and Taiwan government employees at a recent Taiwan National Day reception in Fiji.

Taiwan said it would not be intimidated by China's "hooligan" officials and would continue to celebrate its national day around the world, after it accused Chinese diplomats of trying to charge into the event.

China has heavily disputed Taiwan's allegations, including that a Taiwanese diplomat was hospitalized with a head injury following the altercation. China views the democratically-run island as its own territory with no right to formal diplomatic ties.

The Pacific is a region of major competition between the two countries, where Taiwan maintains formal relations with four countries: the Marshall Islands, Republic of Nauru, Palau and Tuvalu.

The confrontation broke out when Taiwanese at the gathering tried to stop Chinese diplomats from taking photos of guests at the reception, according to a statement from Taiwan's Foreign Ministry.

"We strongly condemn the violence against our diplomat in Fiji by China's uncivilized 'wolf warriors,'" tweeted Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. "As a sovereign state, we'll continue celebrating Taiwan National Day everywhere, every year. Taiwan is a force for good in the world & we won't be intimidated."

China: Taiwan's account 'inconsistent with the facts'

China has countered Taiwan's account of the events, saying Taiwan's statement was "inconsistent with the facts." It added that one of its staff was also injured.

"On that very evening, the staff of the Taipei Trade Office in Fiji acted provocatively against the Chinese Embassy staff who were carrying out their official duties in the public area outside the function venue, causing injuries and damage to one Chinese diplomat,'' the Chinese Embassy statement said.

Chinese officials also criticized the National Day celebration, saying it "violates the one-China principle and relevant rules and regulations of the Fijian government, with an attempt to create 'two Chinas' or 'one China, one Taiwan' internationally."

The one-China principle refers to the idea that Taiwan, a self-ruled island democracy, is also a part of China.

Speaking in Taipei, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Taiwan was a "peace-loving country" that invited people to events around the world for its national day.

"The reality is this year we had 108 offices hold national day events in different ways, inviting the world to celebrate our birthday," said Joanne Ou.

Fiji's Foreign Ministry has not commented on the incident, but police issued a statement making clear that the issue would be resolved via diplomatic channels and that the involvement of Fijian authorities was at an end.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-china-trade-barbs-over-violent-altercation-in-fiji/a-55331299

Edited by BansheeOne
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Here's a graph showing the number of times China Coast Guard ships intruded into Senkaku waters per month.

chinacoastguardsenkaku.jpg

https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000465486.pdf

The number of times PRC CG ships have been in territorial waters has been roughly the same although a general increase in activity in the contiguous zone. Although, usually in the past few years, whenever PRC Coast Guard ships entered Senkaku territorial waters, they stay in them for about 2 hours. So staying in them for 30 to over 50 hours is very different.

 

With the overall increase of PRC coast guard ship activity for a year now, USFJ General reaffirmed US posture in backing Japan with the Senkaku island in late July this year.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200729/p2g/00m/0na/123000c

Edited by JasonJ
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