Cold War, The Reimagined Series

[BansheeOne]

A joint European army has always been in the near future since Churchill's second term.

[swerve]

I don't see any prospect of any of the major states surrendering the control they now have over their own forces, especially not the UK & France.

 

A modest joint rapid reaction force might be handy, but it'd have to be made up of forces contributed by members.

 

I can see a role for some joint capabilities, but not in fighting units. I can imagine larger scale pooling of transport, pooling of support, AAR, etc., & more shared development, as support of national manufacturers becomes harder. Given long enough, this could lead to more integration.

[Gregory]

Actually - the model I had in mind is less EuroCorps and more Common Agricultural Policy. Sort of. Imagine a scheme where a portion of target defense

spending is collected via general taxes and then dispensed as grants. I.E - let's say EU sets common defense spending target at 1.5% of GNP. Any state

spending less than that would have to pony up the rest to the common EU purse, from which it would be disbursed in spending on EU-centric defense projects.

[swerve]

Funny, that. I had a very similar thought the other day. Spent a little while thinking about the projects that such a levy should be spent on. One thing I though of was that if any country is spending more than the threshold, the common fund could take over paying for anything that's covered by the joint projects.

 

Partial list:

Transport. Could be used to support additional AAR tankers, buy a couple of spare LHDs from France, etc.

Satellites: communications & recce.

Other intelligence & recce where it's short, such as AEW, airborne ground recce, etc.

R&D for new weapons & systems used by EU countries - provided they're not country-specific.

[wendist]

 

 

There was somebody talking about this at the EU the other week, that we should have a common defence program. It got short shrift from Britain if I remember rightly. We dont like anyone else mismanaging our defence. We feel fully capable of doing it ourselves.

 

Its a good idea, particularly for the smaller members of the community.

Stuart, perhaps you are thinking of this man. I don´t believe this is a god idea, better to focus on NATO.

 

https://euobserver.com/political/127914

 

It does get in the way of Natos job I can certainly see that. Funny thing is, even Britain to an extent has flirted with it. During Blairs turn we had committed to not only the Nato rapid reaction corp, but were also planning (in light of the Iraq war Im not sure how far it got) committed to an EU Rapid Reaction Force that was being set-up. Even more remarkably we committed the same forces to both.

 

I think an EU army may one day be a good idea. But only when we all have a single currency and we have a Presidency with some power with the will to underline a single foreign policy and ultimately direct a military campaign. Thats decades off, if ever. Britain is simply not going to stand for it, not unless the EU steps to ensure security for its previous possessions. Try as I will I cant see the French going south to the Falklands to defend them, and I cant see us going to Africa to defend old French colonial possessions.

 

In defence of EU borders it might have something to commend it. But as we saw with Iraq and Afghanistan, in a globalised world economy, military action to ensure security often takes way beyond European borders. At which point an EU Military is going to get badly unstuck.

 

Im still thinking a Nato Army might be a better idea. Though you are still left with a US President making most of the important decisions on how and when it is used.

 

To split up your efforts for political reasons or concentrate them on one objective for maximum efficiency. Was that not a recurring theme when Churchill and Alanbrooke had their little night-time chats?

When it comes to Juncker I´m afraid he is far more concerned with his pet project, strengthening the EU, rather than military efficiency. I don´t think he cares much if his initiative weakens NATO as long as he can score some political points for himself and the EU. Anyway don´t we already have a embryo of an EU army, the Battlegroups?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_Battlegroup If Juncker has this secret urge to be a new Napoleon, let him tour Europe and have the Battlegroups troop the colour or something.

Edited March 16, 2015 by wendist

[BansheeOne]

Well, ahead of the 2016 budget deliberations by the cabinet the German Bundeswehr Association (basically the soldiers' union) demanded to increase the defense budget from currently 33 to 35 billion Euro in 2020 yesterday, with an 800 million raise for next year. By reports from today, it will actually be 1.2 billion for next year, and a total of 35 million by 2019 already. Seems political conditions are currently advantageous for this; according to a poll released yesterday, 49 percent of participants are for raising the budget, 36 against. That gotta be the most favorable numbers in two decades.

 

41 percent of those polled also think the Bundeswehr is too small at currently 181,000, 29 percent think it's just right, ten percent that it's too big. The Bundeswehr Association wants an increase by 5,000, but in light of demographics, not much is going to change if we stay all-volunteer; I can't see anybody re-activating conscription unless there are more sweepingly dramatic developments. It's not like there are to little soldiers in Europe after all; I can think of much more pressing necessities like regenerating equipment and training for conventional scenarios, and improving interoperability, political and procedural conditions for deployments even within NATO. I remain flabbergasted that apparently half the work for moving the VJTF into Poland and/or the Baltic states is in filing customs declarations to introduce military equipment - this in a supposedly borderless EU.

[DB]

Currently, national debt repayments are benefiting from low inflation (in countries that have a decent credit rating, anyway). For the UK, this means a significant current account surplus (well, actually, a reduced budget deficit...).

 

Given that defence has taken a hell of a beating, and that 2% as a target is well below the historical lows (which are much nearer 3% for the UK, since government spending records began), I'd hope to see no further cuts from ours, and maybe some thoughts towards actually increasing capability, not further crippling it.

 

I live in hope, but not expectation. There's not enough votes in spending money on bombs and bullets.

[Roman Alymov]

Not exactly on topic but still interesting: Soviet military observers Isuzu Trooper rammed by Bundeswehr car why trying to break to training ground

 

Soviet military observers mission cars

[swerve]

Currently, national debt repayments are benefiting from low inflation (in countries that have a decent credit rating, anyway). For the UK, this means a significant current account surplus (well, actually, a reduced budget deficit...).

 

Given that defence has taken a hell of a beating, and that 2% as a target is well below the historical lows (which are much nearer 3% for the UK, since government spending records began), I'd hope to see no further cuts from ours, and maybe some thoughts towards actually increasing capability, not further crippling it.

 

I live in hope, but not expectation. There's not enough votes in spending money on bombs and bullets.

While in eastern Europe countries are looking at their defence budgets & saying "We need to spend more", with public approval.

[Roman Alymov]

 

 

Roman, do you know of any English language accounts of Soxmis anywhere? Ive always been interested in the Western Missions, but there seems a dearth of anything on Soxmis.

 

I do not know even Russian sources - seems like GRU men keep their memoirs for better times.

Few more pictures here (probably from US source). Seems like building windows where once shot and then repaired

http://www.drive2.ru/b/288230376152100042/

[BansheeOne]

Not exactly on topic but still interesting: Soviet military observers Isuzu Trooper rammed by Bundeswehr car why trying to break to training ground

 

It's a bit hard to see from a black-and-white picture, but I'm not sure that's a Bundeswehr car - color looks wrong in contrast to the trim and the mission vehicle. The type could be an Opel Omega A that was procured as a staff car for brigade and division commanders as well as for the military police in the late 80s, which would be contemporary with the Trooper; but the hubcaps are wrong.

 

Of course the Bundeswehr also had no legal authority to block the Soviet missions, but obviously it happened at times. As did plain accidents with civilian cars; which was always trouble for the owners because unlike for NATO forces, there was no base in German law for the missions that would have enabled German authorities to pay for the damage.

 

I think some of the pictures from the last link were on our MLM thread.

[Panzermann]

Those hub caps look like aftermarket accessory.

Edited March 18, 2015 by Panzermann

[Corinthian]

Dunno if posted already:

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-russias-fortification-of-the-arctic-2015-3

[Corinthian]

The Spratlys On Ice sounds like a winter skating show.

[Roman Alymov]

Another Soviet Mission car. There is a story why this one is black: All Soviet military personnel in Germany was promised 10 days of vacation at home if successfully block foreign mission car. In 1986 driver of this car forget or ignored order to change his yellow English zone number plates to regular Soviet military black-white when entering Wunsdorf – and was rammed by Ural375 driver so eager to get his vacation that he not noticed red flag on number plate. Car was then restored “army way” and since only green and black paint available – painted black

Edited March 19, 2015 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

Those hub caps look like aftermarket accessory.

Better picture

[Roman Alymov]

More pictures from Facebook

[Roman Alymov]

[BansheeOne]

Better picture

 

 

Hm, I really wish we had a color photo. The ramming car looks more like a civilian silver-grey hue, but there's no way to be sure. Of course West German military police sometimes used unmarked cars, but mostly for investigating the whereabouts of AWOL cases. It might also be a vehicle from allied security services trailing the Soviet missions, as the British MP car in the following post.

 

The picture below the latter might be of the 12 August 1982 incident where the car of BRIXMIS head Brigadier John Learmont (British license plate number 1) was rammed in the side by an NVA truck coming out of the gate of a radar site near Quedlinburg.

[BansheeOne]

Seems political conditions are currently advantageous for this; according to a poll released yesterday, 49 percent of participants are for raising the budget, 36 against. That gotta be the most favorable numbers in two decades.

 

41 percent of those polled also think the Bundeswehr is too small at currently 181,000, 29 percent think it's just right, ten percent that it's too big.

 

To back that up a little, here is a current poll on German public opinion about the Ukrainian crisis.

 

 

Top left question: Who is responsible for the war in Ukraine? (Multiple answers possible.)

- Russia - 55 %

- Separatists - 34 %

- Ukrainian government - 20 %

- United States - 17 %

- European Union - 6 %

- Others - 2 %

 

Bottom left question: Do you have a good opinion of Putin?

Blue line - yes

Red line - no

 

Right question: Which statement do you agree with?

- Russia is supporting the separatists with weapons - 64 %

- Russia is trying to conquer Eastern Ukraine - 61 %

- Conflict in Ukraine only exists because Putin wants it to - 51 %

- Russia will also try to conquer areas in other Soviet countries - 42 %

- The West should support Ukraine more - 30 %

- Most people in Eastern Ukraine are not behind the separatists - 26 %

- The current Ukrainian government came to power by a putsch - 20 %

- Conflict in Eastern Ukraine only escalated when the West interferred - 20 %

- Russia is protecting Eastern Ukrainians from the Ukrainian government - 7 %

 

The pro-Russian camp therefore remains stable at ca. 20 percent. Of interest ist that for the last question, agreement is only three percent among Green voters, four percent of Social Democrats, seven percent of Conservatives, 15 percent among sympathizers of the right-wing Alternative for Germany, and 20 percent among those of the Left Party. As before, the latter is thus still the most pro-Russian party, while the Greens remain the most pro-Ukrainian.

 

Other items show differentiated appraisals of the situation though. In an either-or question not pictured, 55 percent agreed with the statement "Russia wants to expand its influence in the world with its policy. Most of all Russia wants to extend its area of power." 30 percent agreed with "Russia basically wants nothing else but to maintain the position it has now. Russia is only defending its influence in Eastern Europe."

[Gregory]

Finishing his working week as a lawyer, Robert Juodka puts on his fatigues, loads his assault rifles into the car and heads off to the woods to take part in training. He and his comrades regard their “war games” as deadly serious; preparations for resisting a Russian invasion.

 

The Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union, which was disbanded by the country’s communist government, now has 10,000 members. New recruits join every week. The age range is wide, but a hard nucleus is being formed of former service personnel. And experienced foreign volunteers may be admitted in the future. Many fear that what has happened to Ukraine may be revisited in Lithuania.

 

Last week the parliament in Vilnius voted overwhelmingly to bring in conscription. Security forces surrounded two railway stations after the foreign ministry received “intelligence” that large numbers of Russian men in civilian clothes were on board trains coming from Belarus, a neighbouring state and a Kremlin ally. They were said to be heading for Kaliningrad, the Russian-controlled enclave between Lithuania and Poland.

 

The Vilnius parliament has voted in conscription (Robert Juodka) The Vilnius parliament has voted in conscription (Robert Juodka)

The reports proved to be wrong, but the Lithuanian government was quick to point out that Moscow had carried out extensive naval exercises off Kaliningrad and had since announced reinforcements for the base. At the recent commemorations of the 25th anniversary of independence, President Dalia Grybauskaite warned that Lithuania needed “the same unity which got us liberty now”.

 

Her government has published a 100-page pamphlet on how to survive an invasion. “Don’t panic… gunshots just outside your window are not the end of the world,” one passage reads.

 

Robert Juodka, of the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union, stressed that there were no shortage of volunteers to fight the invaders. “The aggression in Ukraine, which is close to us, has certainly helped recruitment,” he said. “Our members start as young as 10 and can go up to 80. But it is the ex-army people who are very useful; some of them have been to Afghanistan and they bring a lot of experience and skill. The aim is to back up the regular army if we are invaded by the Russians. We think the Ukrainians were caught by surprise. We are going to be prepared.”

 

Keen to play his part is Briton Mark Harold, who has become the first foreigner to become a Vilnius city councillor. The 36-year-old said: “People see what has happened in Ukraine and so naturally they are worried. This country is looking towards a Western free-market economy, not to what [Russian President Vladimir] Putin brings.”

 

Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Moldova, all former Warsaw Pact states, feel vulnerable at the creation of “Novo Russia”. They fear that Mr Putin’s ambitions are unlikely to end with the annexation of Crimea and the creation of separatist enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine.

 

Dalia Grybauskaite warned that Lithuania needed “the same unity which got us liberty now” (Getty Images) Dalia Grybauskaite warned that Lithuania needed “the same unity which got us liberty now” (Getty Images)

Lithuania is the only Nato country supplying arms to Kiev. In Washington, Barack Obama is waiting to see whether a ceasefire agreed last month in the Belarus capital holds. The two European leaders who brokered the Minsk accord, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and French President François Hollande, are adamant that such a course would add fuel to an already incendiary scenario.

 

The government in Vilnius has remained one of the strongest proponents of sanctions against Russia despite its economy being hard hit as a result. Rolandas Krisciunas, the deputy foreign minister, said: “We’ll find other markets. The problem is some of our European partners, they are worried about losing the Russian market, but they may end up by losing not markets, but land.”

 

Mr Krisciunas stressed that there would be no shortage of people prepared to stop aggression from the east. “My son is just 14 and he wants to join up,” he said.

 

New recruits join the Riflemen’s Union every week (Robert Juodka) New recruits join the Riflemen’s Union every week (Robert Juodka)

In this febrile atmosphere, there is renewed interest in learning the lessons of history. Lines of young visitors visit the Museum of Genocide Victims at the former KGB headquarters in Vilnius. Ricardas Petrauscas, 19, a student, said: “We are told we need to learn from the past, and we don’t want those times returning. Of course, we don’t want the Russians back and we don’t want another Ukraine here. I don’t want to see people from Russian families being targeted; Lithuanians from all backgrounds should be together.”

 

For Yevginy Bogomolov in Visaginas, one of the few Russian majority towns in the country, it is the nationalists who are creating divisions. “You here this kind of talk more and more now, saying there are spies at work. This is nonsense,” the 52-year-old said. “What is happening in Ukraine and other countries around here is complex; there should be a debate about it. If people stop talking, stop listening to each other, they may well end up fighting.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/fearful-of-russia-lithuanian-volunteers-sign-up-fearing-a-repeat-of-ukraine-10126321.html

[swerve]

Visaginas - founded in 1975 as Sniečkus, a new town filled with Russians brought in from Russia, on the site of four Lithuanian villages which were demolished. It was named after the head of the Lithuanian communist party from 1940 to 1974, famed for organising mass deportations of his countrymen in 1941 - including his own brother & his family - & after the return of the Red Army in 1944. When Khrushchev released many Lithuanians from camps, Sniečkus barred them from returning to Lithuania.

 

The name of the town was an insult to most Lithuanians. The current name comes from one of the demolished villages.

 

Now, Yevgeny, what were you saying? And are you listening?

[BansheeOne]

I just had to get my red pen out for the introduction to a current inquiry of the Left Party in the Bundestag over the basing of additional US forces at Spangdahlem AB. Translation mine.

 

Since the 50s there is a military airport in Spangdahlem, Rhineland-Palatinate, which is mostly used by the US Army. Noise and other health and environmental hazards have evoked broad discontent by [female and male] residents. Citizens initiatives are organizing the resistance against the military airport and demanding civilian use of the areal. In February 2015 it emerged that the US Army wants to base another 2,500 [female and male] soldiers in Rhineland-Palatinate, among which 1,300 in Spangdahlem [source]. In a first step, twelve close support aircraft of the Thunderbold type (also known as "Warthogs") as well as about 300 members of the military were based in Spangdahlem. From there they are to be repeatedly deployed as a part of the already-commenced NATO exercise Operation Atlantic Resolve in exercises in Eastern European countries. The close support aircraft are a highly effective lethal weapon which was developed in times of the Cold War to be employed against Soviet tank divisions. Additionally, 20 combat aircraft of the Bell-Boing CV-22 type (Osprey) are to be relocated from Great Britain to Spangdahlem [source]. All this entails a great danger of escalation in the view of the inquisitors and could present a massive obstacle for diplomatic efforts for a new policy of détente.

 

[...]

 

[sunday]

I just had to get my red pen out for the introduction to a current inquiry of the Left Party in the Bundestag over the basing of additional US forces at Spangdahlem AB. Translation mine.

 

Since the 50s there is a military airport in Spangdahlem, Rhineland-Palatinate, which is mostly used by the US Army. Noise and other health and environmental hazards have evoked broad discontent by [female and male] residents. Citizens initiatives are organizing the resistance against the military airport and demanding civilian use of the areal. In February 2015 it emerged that the US Army wants to base another 2,500 [female and male] soldiers in Rhineland-Palatinate, among which 1,300 in Spangdahlem [source]. In a first step, twelve close support aircraft of the Thunderbold type (also known as "Warthogs") as well as about 300 members of the military were based in Spangdahlem. From there they are to be repeatedly deployed as a part of the already-commenced NATO exercise Operation Atlantic Resolve in exercises in Eastern European countries. The close support aircraft are a highly effective lethal weapon which was developed in times of the Cold War to be employed against Soviet tank divisions. Additionally, 20 combat aircraft of the Bell-Boing CV-22 type (Osprey) are to be relocated from Great Britain to Spangdahlem [source]. All this entails a great danger of escalation in the view of the inquisitors and could present a massive obstacle for diplomatic efforts for a new policy of détente.

 

[...]

 

 

Nobody expects...

 

Oh, wait...

 

...the Red Inquisition?

[BansheeOne]

I have puzzled over a better word for somebody who launches an inquiry when translating these things before. "Inquirer" would be obvious, but then I think of US tabloids.