Cold War, The Reimagined Series

[Colin]

The US have massive tank reserves, outfit a couple of the smaller countries with enough to form 3 squadrons combined, the US pays them to buy spare parts, keeps the armour balance in Europe up, creates jobs for the US Tank Factories.

[BansheeOne]

Considering the abysmal state of the swedish army i can see the swedes favouring this solution.

 

ISTR that the early plans for this elicited some snide remarks here about defending Sweden to the last Finn.

 

About that summary of NATO measures ... let's see.

 

VJTF: Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain to rotate in lead; IOC this year, FOC next year. One brigade headed by the current lead nation to be ready for deployment within 2-15 days. Last year's brigade at 30-day readiness; next year's brigade at 45 days for the complete land element of the NRF. Six forward reception bases in each of the Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria to provide logistical assistance upon arrival, but normally manned only by about 40-50 personnel, half of which locals.

 

UK JEF: This would be the British-led reaction force mentioned last year; though plans go back to 2012, a letter of intent was signed at the NATO summit in Wales between Britain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and the Baltic states last September to have FOC by 2018. The wording refers to the force as "capable of projecting power with global effect and influence" rather than reinforcing Eastern Europe, but its members and circumstances make this a likely mission; it's possible that it will simply be plugged into the VJTF spot when the UK leads the latter. I still suspect this is basically built around the existing UK/NL Landing Force.

 

US: Four combined-arms battalion sets to be pre-positioned at Grafenwöhr, GER, and near exercise areas in the Baltic states, Poland and Romania/Bulgaria from next year. Personnel to rotate through for training.

 

EU: An overlooked angle. All nations concerned are EU members, and under the Lisbon Treaty the EU took over the mutual defense obligation of the defunct WEU which is actually more stringent than Article 5 of the NATO Treaty in that all members have "an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power" rather than "such means as [they] deem necessary" in case of armed aggression against the territory of one of them. Typically you would expect that NATO action will render this superfluous, as most EU members are also members of NATO; however, conversely this means that in theory, the semi-annually rotating EU Battlegroups (two reinforced battalions deployable in 5-10 days) could be deployed in a crisis, since they exist in addition to NATO reaction forces.

 

C³: HQ Multinational (German-Polish-Danish) Corps Northeast in Szczecin is the designated headquarters for NATO operations in the area and is currently being built up with additional personnel to increase readiness. This includes liaison elements of the non-lead member nations (eleven, including all Eastern European NATO members except Albania and Bulgaria, the US and, as of last September, Sweden); the US is putting a brigadier general in place as their senior officer. In theory, GER 1st Panzer, POL 12th Mechanized and DAN "Frederica" Division remain assigned to the Corps.

[BansheeOne]

I forgot to include the question about what will happen to the current token battalion spread by companies throughout the Baltic states and Poland in my previous post. If it was to remain a pure US measure as it has been so far with a battalion from 173rd Airborne Brigade followed by one from 2nd Stryker Cavalry BCT, I would expect it to be folded into the future troop rotation through the pre-positioned battalion sets, amounting to a doubling of presence plus the ones in Grafenwöhr and Romania/Bulgaria. However, last year there was talk of Germany contributing a company to this year's rotation, which I interpreted as this becoming a joint NATO measure - though this may have been obsoleted by the VJTF plans.

[Red Ant]

Needless to say if there is anything further on this important issue, I will post it up. My own view is, a Tu95 would have to do a victory roll up Whitehall at 50 feet before anyone would see the value of spending more on defence.

 

They'll install a couple of barrage balloons.

[BansheeOne]

Troops and hardware from 3rd Infantry Division heading to Eastern Europe

By Jon Harper

Stars and Stripes

Published: March 9, 2015

WASHINGTON — Thousands of troops and major hardware from the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division are heading to the Baltic region to reassure NATO allies fearful of Russian aggression, according to the Pentagon.

Approximately 3,000 soldiers from the division’s 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team are bringing approximately 750 vehicles and pieces of heavy equipment with them, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery pieces and helicopters. The gear arrived Monday via ship in Riga, Latvia, Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren told reporters.

The troops and equipment will participate in multinational training exercises with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which will kick off in May. The exercises are part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, a U.S.-Army led mission which began last year after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region and sent troops and equipment to the eastern part of the country to support pro-Moscow separatists. NATO allies in Eastern Europe, which were under Russian domination during the Cold War, are worried the Kremlin will try to destabilize other neighboring countries.

Some servicemembers from the 1st Armored Brigade have arrived in the region and more will follow next month, according to Maj. James Brindle, a Pentagon spokesman.

The unit, based at Fort Stewart, Ga., will replace U.S. Army Europe’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment, which has been conducting training with NATO allies in Eastern Europe since January. The regiment will return to its base in Vilseck, Germany.

The 1st Armored Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, is the Army’s regionally aligned force for Europe. The regionally aligned forces concept is an Army initiative to build long-term ties between specific units and overseas partners and enhance troops’ familiarity with regional security environments.

The 1st Armored Brigade will wrap up its rotational deployment in mid-June. But all of the heavy rolling stock that the unit is bringing over, to include tanks and armored personnel carriers, is slated to remain in the European theater after the brigade departs, according to U.S. defense officials.

 

http://www.stripes.com/news/troops-and-hardware-from-3rd-infantry-division-heading-to-eastern-europe-1.333467

[Corinthian]

Somewhat OT...

 

I am somewhat depressed seeing the unit sizes mentioned in this thread. "Company" this. "Battalion" that. "Brigade" this. It's only in the previous few posts that "DIVISION" is mentioned. This is giving me the impression that Europe is almost defenseless, that it only has tens of brigades (not counting US contribution) to field, vs. a Soviet Russian army that still (?) uses the term "Shock Army."

[Colin]

I wish we could get ours up to 1.95%, that would be an improvement

[Corinthian]

ISTR Shock Army or at least Army was still being used.

 

OK, so tripwire. But other than the USA (and UK during Telic), all I've seem to remember seeing from Europe is at most regiment and brigade ('cept for the Poles, I recall seeing division being mentioned).

[BansheeOne]

I'm not sure if this is related to the recent decision to pre-position US combined arms battalion sets or rather the earlier one to base AFVs at Grafenwöhr for general training purposes again, with which the withdrawl of American armor from Germany was reverted some time ago already; but here's a video about a joint US-German exercise at Graf (German).

 

[Gregory]

So...is the current intention to permanently base a US battalion in each of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland - "on exercises"?

[Panzermann]

So...is the current intention to permanently base a US battalion in each of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland - "on exercises"?

AFAIK no, they are there to stay for the near future at least. why should they be "on exercise "?

Edited March 11, 2015 by Panzermann

[BansheeOne]

I think that's the general idea, though it will only be one battalion for all of the Baltic states, another in Poland and another in Bulgaria/Romania, plus the one in Germany. I'm not sure the rotation of troops will be seamless, but there will be regular training stays to work with the equipment in place.

[Gregory]

This article says "3000 troops"....

http://www.novinite.com/articles/167096/US+Sending+3000+Troops+to+Baltics+for+3-Month+NATO+Drills

[bd1]

us tanks (4) on border crossing from latvia to estonia

 

http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/delfi-fotod-usa-tankid-joudsid-hommikul-tapale?id=71012061#!dgs=dgsee-149715:ATBWs1SkadzAB7P9T05SoJ

 

only putin achieved what stalin,khrustschev,brezhnev, chernenko,andropov, gorbachev and yeltsin couldn´t - american tanks on russia´s borders....

[bd1]

btw, offtopic, but iirc royal armored corps achieved also more than german panzertruppen - 1919 british-operated mk.v tanks* got closer to st.petersburg than germans during ww2

 

* in russian north-west army

[BansheeOne]

This article says "3000 troops"....

http://www.novinite.com/articles/167096/US+Sending+3000+Troops+to+Baltics+for+3-Month+NATO+Drills

 

This is a brigade-level exercise which also delivers the equipment that will remain in the region for future rotational troops to fall in on for training in place. Have not seen the planned duration of three months before, but this might be the envisioned rotation period, which would indicate that changeover might in fact be seamless, i. e. four rotations per year; but they might center on one country at a time.

 

There were national exercises planned in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland respectively in the coming quarters which have now been expanded into NATO exercises with various members participating (not always the same); I have since learned that the German company equivalent I asked about earlier will be part of most, in addition to largish support elements. The exercise calendar currently looks like this (courtesy of Thomas Wiegold):

 

SUMMER SHIELD

Latvia, 21-31 March

Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Germany, Canada, UK, US; total 950, including 50 Germans (one NBC platoon, two Joint Fire Support Teams, one Forward Air Controller).

 

PERSISTENT PRESENCE 15

All-year series in Poland and the Baltic states. German participation:

16 April - 15 July, Lithuania, one companie Jägerbataillon 292

15 August - 15 November, Latvia, one Panzergrenadier company

1 October - 16 Dezember, Poland, one Panzergrenadier company

 

2015 VJTF FUNCTIONS TESTING

7 - 10 April

Command Post Exercise involving SHAPE, Joint Forces Command Naples, I GER/NL Corps Münster, and units from Germany, Czech Republic, Netherlands and Norway; followed by

 

FALCON VIKING

Munster, May

Deployment exercise for interim VJTF, including German battlegroup NRF 2015 (Panzergrenadierbataillon 371, minus one company, plus recon, engineer, medical, logistics troops, total ca. 1,000); followed by

 

NOBLE JUMP

9 - 21 June

Deployment exercise for elements of interim VJTF to Poland, German participation ca. 350

 

SIIL 15 – STEADFAST JAVELIN

Estonia, 6 - 12 May

German participation ca. 80

 

SABER STRIKE 2015

Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, 8 - 20 June

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Finland, US, Germany, France, Portugal; German participation ca. 600

 

IRON WOLF

Lithuania, 8 - 20 June

German participation ca. 400, allegedly reinforced companies from Fallschirmjägerregiment 31 and Jägerbataillon 292

 

BALTOPS 2015

Baltic Sea, 6 - 23 June

Naval exercise organized by US; German participation ca. 500

 

SWIFT RESPONSE

Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, 18 August - 15 September

France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK, US; German paratroop platoon mentioned

 

SILVER ARROW

Latvia, 21 - 30 September

German participation ca. 250

TRIDENT JUNCTURE 2015

Italy, Portugal, Spain, 28 September - 16 Oktober (Command Post Exercise), 21 October - 6 November (Live Exercise)

Regular exercise for NRF 2016; total 25.000, including elements of Gebirgsjägerbataillon 233

IRON SWORD 15

Lithuania, November

German participation ca. 150

COMPACT EAGLE

Poland, 21 - 27 November

Command Post Exercise/Computer Assisted Exercise led by Multi-National Corps Northeast, Szczecin; GER Panzergrenadierbrigade 41, POL 16th Mechanized Brigade, CZE 7th Mechanized Brigade, Lithuania, Latvia

The interesting thing is that though the Baltic states and Poland are all NATO and EU members, they have all different procedures for diplomatic clearance etc. to introduce military equipment, so planners found they couldn't just move forces from Estonia to Poland like that; again, so much for Russian fears about NATO forces on their borders. This is being addressed now, but would never have been found out without the current crisis.

[Gregory]

Thanks for keeping us appraised on this Banshee.

Indeed, very thourough - thank you very much. Have you seen anything with counts of US forces to be deployed for those exercises?

[Gregory]

KALISZ, Poland — For evidence of how much President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has jangled nerves and provoked anxiety across Eastern Europe, look no farther than the drill held the other day by the Shooters Association, a paramilitary group that, like more than 100 others in Poland, has experienced a sharp spike in membership since Mr. Putin’s forces began meddling in neighboring Ukraine last year.

 

Thirty students took an oath to defend Poland at all costs, joining nearly 200 other regional members of the association — young men and women, boys and girls — marching in formation around the perimeter of the dusty high school courtyard here, across Polish Army Boulevard and into the center of town, sprawling in four long lines along the edge of St. Joseph’s Square.

 

Gen. Boguslaw Pacek, an adviser to the Polish defense minister and the government’s chief liaison with these paramilitary groups, marched with them. He has been making the rounds in recent months of such gatherings: student chapters like this one, as well as groups of veterans, even battle re-enactors.

 

Children played soccer as young members of the Shooters Association trained at a school in Kalisz. Credit Piotr Malecki for The New York Times

 

One of those who took the oath in Kalisz was Bartosz Walesiak, 16, who said he had been interested in the military since playing with toy soldiers as a little boy, but had been motivated to join the Shooters Association after Russia moved into Crimea.

 

“I think that Putin will want more,” Mr. Walesiak said.

 

“Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are already getting ready for such a scenario, so Poland must do the same.”

 

As the crisis drags on, what was unthinkable at the end of the Cold War now seems not quite so unlikely to many Poles: that the great Russian behemoth will not be sated with Ukraine and will reach out once again into the West. The thought is darkening the national mood and rippling across the entire region in ways that reflect a visceral fear of an aggressive and unpredictable Russia.

 

Pointing out that Russia insists it has no such intentions usually elicits little more than a despairing laugh.

 

“I think the impact on everyday life is starting to be very bad,” said Marcin Zaborowski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs. “Very often now, people approach me — neighbors, hairdressers — asking whether there will be a war. The other day, my mother called and asked me.”

 

Dinner parties in Warsaw these days frequently drift to the topic. Possibilities that were once shrugged off are now seriously contemplated. Even the jokes are laced with anxiety.

 

In January, the Polish Ministry of National Defense announced that it would provide military training to any civilian who wished to receive it, with registration beginning March 1. About 1,000 people showed up the first day, said Col. Tomasz Szulejko, spokesman for the Polish Army’s general staff. “This number certainly bodes well for the future,” he said.

 

Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s defense minister, is also contemplating a proposal to establish a Territorial Defense Force, taking the cream of the members of the paramilitary associations and other volunteers to create something akin to the National Guard in the United States.

 

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz changed the law on who can be called up for service in case of “military maneuvers.” Previously, the armed forces could summon only current and former reservists, those with actual military training. Now, if necessary, they can call on almost any man in the country.

 

In neighboring Lithuania, President Dalia Grybauskaite said her government intended to reinstate military conscription because of the “current geopolitical environment.”

 

In January, the government issued a 98-page booklet (“How to Act in Extreme Situations or Instances of War”) that offered advice on what citizens should do if foreign soldiers appeared on their doorstep, and how they might offer passive resistance to an occupying power.

 

“If you are a civilian and you make that clear, it is unlikely someone will rush to kill you,” the booklet advised, urging people not to panic. Even hearing shots fired outside your home “is not the end of the world,” it said.

 

“People come up and ask me: ‘Should we leave? Should we flee?’ ” said Karlis Bukovskis, deputy director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs in Riga. “This is a new development. This is the first time that has happened to me.”

 

Worries are increasing in Poland, but they have not yet reached the level of mass fear, said Tomasz Szlendak, a sociologist at Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun who has studied the effects the Ukraine crisis is having in Poland.

 

At a recent party of fellow academics, he said, one retired military officer announced that he would organize a local militia if the Russians invaded. Another professor declared that he would put his wife and daughter on a plane out of Poland with a bag of money and then sign up with one of the paramilitary groups.

Continue reading the main story

 

By The New York Times

 

“These kind of comments are, of course, meant as jokes,” Mr. Szlendak said. “But they are based on real fear. They are humorless, sad jokes.”

 

The situation has not quite gotten to the point that people are stockpiling food and ammunition in the basement, said Mr. Zaborowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, but anxiety is definitely rising.

 

Pawel Kowal, a former member of Poland’s Parliament and a foreign policy expert, said the country was getting parallel messages from its leaders, being told that a newly aggressive Russia poses a genuine threat while also being reassured that membership in NATO and the European Union will provide sufficient protection.

 

“The sense is that the border between NATO and Russia is like a new Iron Curtain,” Mr. Kowal said. “But at least this time, Poland is on the right side of it.”

 

The growing enrollment in the paramilitary groups is just one manifestation of the changed climate. The number of groups, General Pacek said, is clearly rising. Not all of the increase is due to Ukraine — patriotism and uniformed service are becoming more fashionable among younger Poles, and the military does offer a stable career — but Mr. Putin’s shadow has certainly accelerated the trend, he said.

 

A gathering a few days earlier in the city of Szczecin had 500 new cadets taking the oath. General Pacek estimated that there were around 120 such groups at the moment, with about 80,000 members, but he acknowledged that this was just a guess, as the groups are not required to report their existence or membership rolls.

 

The defense ministry has been trying to entice the groups to join an alliance with the government, offering equipment, uniforms, training and even money in exchange for a clearer idea of who they are — and a chance to assemble a new generation of energized recruits.

 

“There is no question of them doing any fighting,” General Pacek said. “They are to offer assistance to the military. But of course, they have to be prepared to defend.”

Photo

Members of the paramilitary association lined up during an exercise at 3 a.m. Credit Piotr Malecki for The New York Times

 

In St. Joseph’s Square, the 30 new members of the Shooting Association waited for the command before taking four purposeful steps forward and raising their right hands.

 

“I hereby pledge to put the good of the Polish Republic above all else,” they repeated. “I will always be ready to defend its independence until my last breath.”

 

After the ceremony, Grzegorz Sapinski, the mayor of Kalisz, watched the cadets march down the cobblestone streets back to the school.

 

“One cannot help but notice the change in attitudes among young people following what is happening in Ukraine,” Mr. Sapinski said. “The conflict is not in some obscure place. It is happening four hours’ drive away.”

 

The members of one squad from the Shooters Association were splayed on their bellies on the edge of the school’s soccer field, pushing themselves ahead one knee thrust at a time. Each held a prop AK-47, and Capt. Lukasz Kolcz, the chapter’s commander, barked at them to keep low and move forward.

 

The youngest of the cadets, Grzegorz Zurek, 11, was having trouble keeping up, but he was stubbornly determined. As they arrived on the far side of the field, the cadets turned to cheer Grzegorz along.

 

“I think it is highly probable that Putin will do something against Poland,” Grzegorz later said. “I know from history that Russia has always been a totalitarian state. Now it is trying to regain the territory it lost at the end of the Cold War.”

 

He rested his rubber-coated gun on the soft, perfect grass.

 

“Should it invade Poland,” he said, “I would not hesitate a second to fight against them.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/15/world/europe/poland-steels-for-battle-seeing-echoes-of-cold-war-in-ukraine-crisis.html

Urbanoid, can you offer any additional insight into what's going on?

[BansheeOne]

Indeed, very thourough - thank you very much. Have you seen anything with counts of US forces to be deployed for those exercises?

 

Only bits. NATO's current publicized event forecast only extends to the end of April so far. Here and here is something about Saber Strike 2015 from USAREUR, which shows it's largely an event to train deployment for National Guard units on the American side.

[Panzermann]

Dragoon Ride will send US troops through eastern Europe in show of support

STUTTGART, Germany U.S. Army soldiers with the 2nd Cavalry Regiment will soon begin a 1,100-mile convoy through six countries en route to their home station in Vilseck, Germany as they wrap up months of training with allies in Poland and the Baltics, Army officials said.

Troops will be taking their Strykers on a road march, dubbed Dragoon Ride. They will be accompanied by aerial reconnaissance support provided by the Armys 12th Combat Aviation Brigade, U.S. Army Europe said. ...

from Stars&Stripes

 

That is ambitious. A road march of about 1700 km. Good luck. And no break downs.

Edited March 14, 2015 by Panzermann

[Gregory]

Banshee,

 

Is there any thought being given to moving some of individual EU member defense spending to a common EU program?

[Panzermann]

Looking at the quagmire that the (b)eurocracy is, with its diffusion of responsibility. No thanks. It is going to be worse than the nationally individual mismanagement.

[Ivanhoe]

Looking at the quagmire that the (b)eurocracy is, with its diffusion of responsibility. No thanks. It is going to be worse than the nationally individual mismanagement.

 

Hmm, there is a 2nd law of bureaucracy in there; "The product of N bureaucracies > the sum of N bureaucracies".

 

Too lazy to figure out how to do math symbols in bbcode.

[BansheeOne]

Defense remains largely in the inter-governmental realm of the EU; as always, countries are reluctant to surrender this core field of national sovereignty to supranational institutions, and the more Atlanticist members in particular are opposed to a doubling of structures already provided by NATO to mutual detriment. The Lisbon Treaty allows for Enhanced Cooperation in defense matters, but the only move that has actually gotten underway so far is the Ghent Initiative for Pooling and Sharing, which is analogue to NATO's "Smart Defense" (i. e., let's combine our capability gaps) and centers on mostly uncritical areas like joint training and procurement.

[wendist]

There was somebody talking about this at the EU the other week, that we should have a common defence program. It got short shrift from Britain if I remember rightly. We dont like anyone else mismanaging our defence. We feel fully capable of doing it ourselves.

 

Its a good idea, particularly for the smaller members of the community.

Stuart, perhaps you are thinking of this man. I don´t believe this is a god idea, better to focus on NATO.

 

https://euobserver.com/political/127914