Cold War, The Reimagined Series

[BansheeOne]

Well, the Lithuanian side has denied there was an "official" request, rather than probing within the frame of their AFV procurement plans, while the German MoD says this has been on their desks for a couple months already. Apparently we're talking of 100 Boxers here; the confusion seems to be about the mode of delivery. The Lithuaniansdefinitely want a government-to-government deal as it would cut through European regulations for an official competition and likely be cheaper. Apparently Germany would find it possible to stock up the current Bundeswehr orders of 272 + 131 by another 100 to pass them on, but that's allegedly not what Lithuania wanted; Germany OTOH doesn't want to pass on any of the planned additional 131 for the Bundeswehr.

 

The case seems different for an also-reported Lithuanian interest in PzH 2000, of which there are still German surplus stocks.

[BansheeOne]

I last came up with at least 157.

 

Categorizing of offensive or defensive systems by third parties is not a consideration in deliveries to NATO partners. Though there is some wondering here who stands to gain from publication of the issue. Some point to German industry who have allegedly declared that they will happily build Boxers for the Bundeswehr and Lithuania at the same time, no delays or other problems, nossir. Others say that shot could very well backfire because the Lithuanians seem pissed over the treatment their discrete inquiry of how such a delivery could be arranged most easily now gets in German public.

[Gregory]

Baltic nations increasing their armed forces

 

 

Lithuania is to reintroduce conscription over concerns about "the current geopolitical environment" in the Baltic states, President Dalia Grybauskaite says.

Conscription will be renewed for a five-year-period to "enhance and accelerate army recruitment", she said.

Ms Grybauskaite did not specifically refer to the situation in Ukraine, but neighbouring states have expressed worries about Russian aggression.

Parliament must still approve the plan.

Lithuania abolished conscription in 2008, but the new rules would see it reinstated for men aged 19-26, with exemptions for certain categories, such as university students and single fathers.

Up to 3,500 men would be recruited each year.

Latvia's defence minister has also suggested strengthening his country's military, by increasing army numbers to 7,000 men. However, there are no plans to introduce compulsory service.

 

 

It was Russia's annexation of Crimea last year and President Putin's warning that he reserved the right to protect Russian speakers wherever they were which first raised the alarm in the three small Baltic republics.

In response Nato announced plans for a new rapid reaction force in the region. Now Lithuania says it will bring back compulsory national service starting this September.

It fears that unrest could be stirred up among its tiny minority Russian population.

An even greater worry is that it sits next to Kaliningrad, an enclave cut off from the rest of Russia but bristling with troops and armaments.

Lithuania's top general admitted there was not yet a military threat. But its foreign minister has voiced the fear that "we could be next" if tensions with Russia continued to deepen.

 

Lithuania was formerly a part of the Soviet Union, along with Latvia and Estonia, but sought to join Nato and the EU upon independence in 1991.

Its proximity to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, has lead to fears about possible interference from Russia.

Russia carried out a military drill there in December that featured 9,000 soldiers and more than 55 naval vessels.

That is one of a number of incidents that have led to the deterioration of relationships between Moscow and its neighbours.

Last September Estonian security official Eston Kohver was detained by Russia at the border on accusations of spying. There was a dispute over whether he had been captured on Russian or Estonian soil.

The foreign ministry in Tallinn called it "a very disturbing incident", which lead to a rift between the two countries.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31607930

Edited February 25, 2015 by Gregory

[Gregory]

U.S. military vehicles paraded 300 yards from the Russian border

 

MOSCOW – U.S. military combat vehicles paraded Wednesday through an Estonian city that juts into Russia, a symbolic act that highlighted the stakes for both sides amid the worst tensions between the West and Russia since the Cold War.

 

The armored personnel carriers and other U.S. Army vehicles that rolled through the streets of Narva, a border city separated by a narrow frontier from Russia, were a dramatic reminder of the new military confrontation in eastern Europe.

 

The soldiers from the U.S. Army’s Second Cavalry Regiment were taking part in a military parade to mark Estonia’s Independence Day. Narva is a vulnerable border city separated by a river from Russia. It has often been cited as a potential target for the Kremlin if it wanted to escalate its conflict with the West onto NATO territory.

 

Russia has long complained bitterly about NATO expansion, saying that the Cold War defense alliance was a major security threat as it drew closer to Russia’s borders. The anger grew especially passionate after the Baltic states joined in 2004, and Russian President Vladimir Putin cited fears that Ukraine would join NATO when he annexed the Crimean Peninsula in March last year.

 

Russia’s Baltic neighbors, meanwhile, have said that what happened in Ukraine demonstrates exactly why they wanted to join NATO in the first place.

 

U.S. tanks rolled through the streets of Riga, Latvia in November for that nation’s Independence Day parade, another powerful reminder of U.S. boots on the ground in the region. The United States has sent hundreds of military personnel to joint NATO exercises in the Baltics. NATO nations committed in September to forming a rapid reaction force that could deploy quickly to eastern Europe if they are invaded.

[BansheeOne]

It has.

 

[urbanoid]

And anything smaller is an AK.

[Gregory]

Abrams were in Riga. I think they had this one right, First Cab was supposed to be there in the fall.

[BansheeOne]

I last came up with at least 157.

 

Of course with recent demands to get rid of "dynamic availability management" in favor of all combat units being fully (rather than 75 percent) equipped once again, there is now thought to increase the planned number of Leopard 2s in service from 225 to about 300, which would cut half of the stocks remaining for export. Along the same lines, the reduction in Puma orders might be rescinded.

[TonyE]

 

Good God, it really is like the old days. Can Reforger be far behind?

 

When they say 'tanks' is that really correct? I thought 2 ACR had rerolled as a lightweight formation?

 

 

2nd Dragoons!

 

[BansheeOne]

Of course with recent demands to get rid of "dynamic availability management" in favor of all combat units being fully (rather than 75 percent) equipped once again, there is now thought to increase the planned number of Leopard 2s in service from 225 to about 300, which would cut half of the stocks remaining for export. Along the same lines, the reduction in Puma orders might be rescinded.

 

Defense Minister von der Leyen has now officially announced that there will be no more passing-on or scrapping of existing AFV stocks. One tank battalion previously planned as inactive (this would have to be 414) will also be activated at Bergen; it may or may not include a Dutch company which has been talked about recently as a subject of bi-national integration. In addition to the 50 additional Pumas from the previously cancelled last batch, there are also demands to take over the similarly cancelled last 22 NH 90s.

[Panzermann]

IIRC 414 (na) has been the inactive reserve sister to 413.

 

Weird. Maybe this is still easier than than to levy a disbanded battalion?

[swerve]

No more second hand Leopard 2s for sale! Well, unless someone else cuts their inventory.

[BansheeOne]

IIRC 414 (na) has been the inactive reserve sister to 413.

 

Weird. Maybe this is still easier than than to levy a disbanded battalion?

 

Well, the reports speak variously of "re-activating" or "activating an armor battalion that existed only on paper so far". Looking around the net, it seems to have been in the cards for some time already, not just in conjunction with Dutch-German cooperation, but also to compensate for the withdrawl of UK 7th Armoured Brigade this year. Thomas Wiegold had this back in September, and here is a local press report from earlier this month based upon a release by local MP Henning Otte, the head of our defense working group; it says the units will be raised from elements of the inactive or outgoing battalions at Torgelow and Neustadt am Rübenberge. However, this current report confirms it will be called PzBtl 414.

[Panzermann]

von der Leyen says that Leopard 2 are being scrapped? Huh? Never heard of that. Selling off, rebuilding into utility vehicles etc, yes, but outright scrapping? (Ignoring the few tanks that got trashed)

 

 

And the numbering system is FUBAR anyway after all the reassigning and shuffling the past two decades. There was a time when a units number told you something. today they could just throw a few ten sided dice and produce the same result. And the mixed D/NL battalion... Okay, I'll stop rambling. Most important is a a good power point presentation.

 

 

So which Brigade is it to be attached to? Panzerlehr in Munster has got two PanzerBtl already.

 

edited to add: in the comments someone says that the dutch 43rd Brigade is to be put under command of 1. Panzerdivision.

Edited February 27, 2015 by Panzermann

[BansheeOne]

That's what the inspectors of the Dutch and German armies said at the talk I spoke of in my linked post. Dutch company under German battalion under NL 43rd Mechanized Brigade under 1st Panzer Division (and I guess I GER/NL Corps will nominally be on top of the chain). Though as all German battalions in multi-national formations are administratively assigned to a Bundeswehr brigade, I suppose it will stay with Panzerlehr 9.

[TonyE]

And the numbering system is FUBAR anyway after all the reassigning and shuffling the past two decades. There was a time when a units number told you something. today they could just throw a few ten sided dice and produce the same result.

 

It is time for the Ansbach Dragoners to rise again........

 

[BansheeOne]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11448971/Vladimir-Putin-wants-to-destroy-Nato-says-US-commander-in-Europe-Ben-Hodges.html

 

[...]

He called for American tanks to be positioned in countries along Nato’s eastern flank, as a deterrent to Mr Putin.

Just months after moving its last tanks out of Europe, the US has decided to send some 220 Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles back in response to the Ukraine crisis.

Gen Hodges said he had proposed positioning some of the tanks in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Bulgaria.

And the US has already agreed to send troops to Poland and the three Baltic states.

Gen Hodges called for Nato countries to maintain defence spending in the face of the Ukraine crisis.

The chief of staff of the US army, Gen Raymond Odierno, said he was “very concerned” earlier this week after David Cameron refused to commit to maintaining defence spending at Nato’s agreed target of 2 per cent of GDP.

But Gen Hodges said he was “sure” the UK would continue to meet the 2 per cent target.

“The UK is one of only four Nato members that currently meets its 2 per cent target,” he said. “There are 24 that are already below, and many of them are well below.” He described German military equipment shortages as “unacceptable”.

“For the most powerful nation in Europe, which takes a leadership role in the EU, it is unacceptable to have helicopters that don’t fly, or aircraft you can’t use,” he said Only 42 of Germany’s 109 Typhoon fighters are available because of maintenance issues, alongside 38 of its 89 Tornado bombers.

[...]

 

Oh good, I see he said much the same at the publicized German Society for Foreign Policy talk as he did at our house earlier, so there's no reason to hold off. Apparently the plan is to base a battalion set each at Grafenwöhr and exercise areas in the Baltic states, Poland and Romania/Bulgaria for a total of four (talk was of one brigade, so I thought one battalion might be artillery or other support, but upon reflection 220 Abrams and Bradleys add up to four combined-arms battalions quite precisely), personnel to rotate through for training in observance of the NATO-Russia Founding Act. It's basically REFORGER Light, which would be a continuation of this:

 

In Face Of "Russian Aggression," US Forces May Expand Military Operations Across Eastern Europe

By Christopher Harress @Charress c.harress@ibtimes.com on March 04 2015 2:06 PM EST

The U.S. military is due to send troops to Romania and Bulgaria during the summer as part of an operation to counter Russian hostility in Europe, but U.S. officials now say the operation may be expanded to include Hungary, the Czech Republic and Georgia. Operation Atlantic Resolve, which already has U.S. troops training in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since April 2014, is aimed at demonstrating U.S. commitment to Europe and NATO “in light of the Russian intervention in Ukraine,” says a U.S. Department of Defense mission statement.

According to Col. Michael Foster of the 173rd Airborne Brigade, based in Vicenza, Italy, the operation is expected to expand into northern and southern regions of Europe.

"So by the end of the summer, you could very well see an operation that stretches from the Baltics all the way down to the Black Sea," Foster said, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington on Monday. "As you connect countries, there is almost a line of U.S. troops.”

Around 300 U.S. troops from the 173rd Brigade are being sent to Ukraine to help train troops from the country’s National Guard, which is a separate mission from Atlantic Resolve, "but certainly tied in to deterring Russian aggression,” said Foster.

The training comes at the request of the Ukrainian government and will focus on military skills, from basic first aid to ambush operations. Come October, Ukrainian units with on-the-ground experience fighting pro-Russian rebels will be paired with U.S. military units.

"What we have been asked to do, and the issue that exists in the fight, is not an issue of teaching the Ukrainians things they don't know but refining their processes and pushing them forward," Foster said. "The fight from my perspective only is, it's not an imbalance of capability, it’s an imbalance of capacity in some places, or a refinement in one area that's giving Russia tactical overmatch in a few specific areas."

The inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania into the operations brings the total number of U.S. troops involved in Operation Atlantic Resolve to around 1,900.

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/face-russian-aggression-us-forces-may-expand-military-operations-across-eastern-1835984

 

I've been meaning to make an updated summary of NATO's reassurance efforts to Eastern European members; one uncertainty is about the early-mentioned British reaction force that was to include the Netherlands, Canadians and Scandinavians. Haven't heard anything of that lately and am not sure if it has been subsumed into the VJTF scheme, where Britain is of course one of six framework nations.

 

Also saw a wire report yesterday that the Czech Republic was going to reintroduce general military physicals, but can't find an English source except some saying they were preparing legislation last summer already to have a basis for re-enacting conscription if necessary.

[urbanoid]

Well, one must say that the Baltic states are nowhere near as indefensible as West Berlin was, but deploying forces there (as well as in FRG proper) made a message clear: by attacking you're not just at war with Germany, but with all of us. When NATO soldiers from other countries are already fighting, there's no debate in their capitals whether to engage or not.

 

Also it's high time to scrap this idiotic treaty with Russia.

[BansheeOne]

Meanwhile on the northern flank:

 

Scared By Russia, Sweden And Finland Make War Pact

By Christopher Harress @Charress c.harress@ibtimes.com on February 19 2015 3:13 PM EST

The defense ministers of Sweden and Finland announced Thursday a new military cooperation agreement that could see the two countries go to war together in the event of an attack. The new relationship comes amid ongoing aggressive behavior from Russia in the region. Neither country is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance, whose charter stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all, mandating a reaction from every allied nation.

The level of the cooperation is still to be finalized, and it may include increased communication and shared military bases.

“This gives us a concrete ability to work together, first and foremost in peacetime but also in times of crisis should we choose to,” said Finland’s defense minister Carl Haglund to the TT news agency.

However, his Swedish counterpart, Peter Hultqvist, said that the cooperation was not a formal alliance.

“By planning for various crisis scenarios, we create preparations to use them in a given situation. Whether or not we end up implementing these proposals is a decision that has to be made at government level in that situation and then confirmed by the parliaments in the two countries,” said Hultqvist to Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, while adding that the governments would decide which proposals to move forward with in the near future.

Even though Sweden and Finland are both neutral countries, not formally allied with any other, the pair signed a so-called host nation support agreement with NATO in 2014. The agreement means that NATO troops can deploy inside the country.

The decision to cooperate comes after a year of increased Russian aggressiveness in the Baltic region, with Russian warplanes flying very close to European airspace. The Swedish military also suspects that up to four Russian submarines may have been operating off the coast of Stockholm in January.

Those events, along with the war in East Ukraine, have swayed public opinion in Sweden, with most Swedes now in favor of joining NATO. Finland, on the other hand, still opposes membership.

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-russia-sweden-finland-make-war-pact-1821906

 

News 5.3.2015 9:07 | updated 5.3.2015 10:27

Thursday's papers: NATO support, complaints to police, state visits, a Nazi anthem and cancelled flights

Finland's print press on Thursday reports on a new NATO support poll, the top ten reasons people in eastern Finland complain to the police, an important day for state visits, the singing of a banned Nazi anthem at a student party, and continued cancellations from Norwegian due to a pilot strike.

The country’s leading newspaper Helsingin Sanomat leads with the results of a poll it commissioned assessing Finnish support for NATO membership. Over one thousand people were contacted by phone between February 16 and 27, and the clear majority, 57 percent of the respondents, indicated they were against NATO membership for Finland. More than one quarter, 27 percent, were in support of Finland joining the military alliance, however, the most support recorded since public opinion polls on the issue began in 2002. The change from the last poll on the subject, taken last August, is negligible.

At the same time that NATO support numbers stay in place, however, respondents’ view that Russia is a threat has grown. 21 percent completely agreed with the statement: "Russia is now a greater threat to Finland” and 40 percent somewhat agreed. Those who said they support the centre-right National Coalition Party were the only group with a majority, 57 percent, supporting NATO membership. Support for NATO membership fell among adherents to every other political group since August.

[...]

 

http://yle.fi/uutiset/thursdays_papers_nato_support_complaints_to_police_state_visits_a_nazi_anthem_and_cancelled_flights/7846688

 

Finland to take part in Nato CMX15

Finland will participate in a crisis management exercise organised by Nato between 4 and 10 March as a partner country, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs announced on Tuesday.

The Crisis Management Exercise 2015 (CMX15) is a decision-making and consultation exercise held regularly by the defence alliance and is now open for Nato partner countries for the sixth time. Finland also took part in the five previous exercises that were open to partner countries, most recently in 2013.

The partner countries that participate in CMX15 alongside Nato member states are Finland, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Ukraine. In addition to the headquarters and strategic-level staff of Nato, civilian and military personnel in national capitals and Nato embassies will participate in the exercise.

From Finland, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Mission of Finland to Nato in Brussels, the Ministry of Defence, the Defence Command, the Prime Minister's Office and, if necessary, other authorities will take part in CMX15.

No deployed forces participate in the crisis management exercises, nor do the exercises feature rescue or other field activities.

The exercise will be based on a fictitious scenario in which a crisis with humanitarian and marine security dimensions will emerge between two imaginary countries far from Nato territory. The exercise will focus primarily on the actions of Nato in the early stages of the unfolding crisis.

 

http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/13269-finland-to-take-part-in-nato-cmx15.html

[TonyE]

Considering the abysmal state of the swedish army i can see the swedes favouring this solution.

[glenn239]

Those events, along with the war in East Ukraine, have swayed public opinion in Sweden, with most Swedes now in favor of joining NATO. Finland, on the other hand, still opposes membership.

 

 

Finland I can understand still being cautious, but why hasn’t Sweden joined NATO? Doesn't seem to be much of a downside.

[urbanoid]

Sweden doesn't need NATO, feminist foreign policy will do wonders.

[wendist]

Be interesting to see greater cooperation between the Northern states though, particulary in development of military equipment.

It´s a pity the UK media does not provide you with more information on nordic military cooperation because, Stuart trust me on this one, you would have been entertained. Royally entertained!

 

It has a official name, NORDEFCO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NORDEFCO, and it appear not to be an overwhelming success . Or to use their own somewhat more diplomatic choice of words, "In 2013, the agency found that many of its efforts had failed to meet requirements."

[wendist]

 

Those events, along with the war in East Ukraine, have swayed public opinion in Sweden, with most Swedes now in favor of joining NATO. Finland, on the other hand, still opposes membership.

 

 

Finland I can understand still being cautious, but why hasn’t Sweden joined NATO? Doesn't seem to be much of a downside.

Sweden will not join NATO unless Finland join at the same time. A scenario were Finland is the only neutral country left between an expanding NATO and a paranoid Russia would put the Finns under some serious pressure. If we join NATO we will join together and even then it would probably be a rather tense and messy affair with the Russians doing everything they could to stop it.

[wendist]

Should add that there are plans for closer cooperation with the Danes to.

 

http://www.thelocal.se/20150303/defence-deal-doesnt-spell-nato-membership-for-sweden