Cold War, The Reimagined Series

[futon]

Trip to central Asia cancelled. I guess we'll see if a reschedule happens or not.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Friday that he canceled his planned trip to central Asia after the previous day's major earthquake off Miyazaki Prefecture, southwestern Japan.
   The 7.1-magnitude temblor led the Japan Meteorological Agency to release its first-ever emergency information warning about an increased risk of a megaquake in the Nankai Trough off the Pacific coast of central to southwestern Japan.
   Kishida was scheduled to visit Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia for four days from Friday.

...

https://sp.m.jiji.com/english/show/34792

About the earthquake advisory

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240808/p2g/00m/0na/063000c

[sunday]

1 hour ago, futon said:

Trip to central Asia cancelled. I guess we'll see if a reschedule happens or not.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Friday that he canceled his planned trip to central Asia after the previous day's major earthquake off Miyazaki Prefecture, southwestern Japan.
   The 7.1-magnitude temblor led the Japan Meteorological Agency to release its first-ever emergency information warning about an increased risk of a megaquake in the Nankai Trough off the Pacific coast of central to southwestern Japan.
   Kishida was scheduled to visit Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia for four days from Friday.

...

https://sp.m.jiji.com/english/show/34792

About the earthquake advisory

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240808/p2g/00m/0na/063000c

According to our favorite geology Youtuber, probability of this quake preceding a bigger one that would occur within a week is around 5%, according to the last 100 years of Japanese quakes history:

Of course, it is still a thing to consider, as a low probability of a very destructive event is still a big risk.

Edited August 9, 2024 by sunday

[futon]

54 minutes ago, sunday said:

According to our favorite geology Youtuber, probability of this quake preceding a bigger one that would occur within a week is around 5%, according to the last 100 years of Japanese quakes history:

Of course, it is still a thing to consider, as a low probability of a very destructive event is still a big risk.

A big one in that area is due within next 30 years. So if not next week, it'll probably come some years after. Have to be ready. 

[futon]

WASHINGTON -- The U.S military would like Japan to produce more than 100 Patriot missiles, according to the Pentagon's top official for acquisitions, as the two countries expand co-production of weapons to plug a burgeoning American shortage.

After last week's "two-plus-two" meeting of foreign affairs and defense ministers in Tokyo, the U.S. and Japan agreed to expand production of PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles -- the highest-end member of the Patriot missile family -- and newly co-produce the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/U.S.-wants-Japan-to-co-produce-100-plus-Patriot-missiles

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, futon said:

WASHINGTON -- The U.S military would like Japan to produce more than 100 Patriot missiles, according to the Pentagon's top official for acquisitions, as the two countries expand co-production of weapons to plug a burgeoning American shortage.

After last week's "two-plus-two" meeting of foreign affairs and defense ministers in Tokyo, the U.S. and Japan agreed to expand production of PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles -- the highest-end member of the Patriot missile family -- and newly co-produce the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/U.S.-wants-Japan-to-co-produce-100-plus-Patriot-missiles

That's great, but 100 isn't a whole lot.

Considering current events, there may be justification to produce a total of several thousand annually, shared between allies.

[futon]

12 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

That's great, but 100 isn't a whole lot.

Considering current events, there may be justification to produce a total of several thousand annually, shared between allies.

It looks like the US has a goal of 750 annually in mind, which includes those made for the services of other countries I guess. Seekers from.. Boeing.. might be a bottleneck. I guess the 100 that would be from Japan are on top of Japan's annual production of 30 that's for JASDF. Fairly informative article in the quote below.

Quote

 

TOKYO, July 20 (Reuters) - A U.S. plan to use Japanese factories to boost production of Patriot air defence missiles - used by Ukraine to defend against Russian attacks - is being delayed by a shortage of a critical component manufactured by Boeing, four sources said.

Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.T), opens new tab (MHI) already makes about 30 PAC-3 missiles each year under licence from defence contractor Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab and can increase that number to about 60, two Japanese government officials and two industry sources told Reuters.

The U.S. hopes to increase production from about 500 a year to more than 750 per year globally as soon as possible, a person familiar with the program said. But no expansion at all will be possible in Japan without additional supplies of the missiles' seekers, which guide them in the final stages of flight, the officials and industry sources said.

"It could take several years before MHI is able to raise output" because of the shortage, said one of the industry sources, who like the others declined to be identified because they are not authorised to speak to the media.

The production snag in Japan shows the challenges Washington faces in plugging industrial help from its global allies into its complex supply chains.

Boeing last year began expanding its seeker factory in the United States to increase production by 30%, although the additional lines won't operate until 2027. The company did not say last year how many were produced, but noted it had just delivered its 5,000th.

A Boeing representative referred questions to Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the interceptor.

Lockheed Martin has said it is increasing its U.S. output of Patriot interceptors from 500 to 650 by 2027. Each costs about $4 million.

Even if enough seekers are available, expanding annual PAC-3 production in Japan beyond 60 would require MHI to build more capacity.

In its 2022 plan to double military spending, Japan's government said it would offer financial help to defence companies that wanted to expand production. Those subsidies, however, only apply to equipment destined for the country's Self Defense Forces and not exports.

That means that MHI or the United States would have to stump up the money to pay for a new PAC-3 factory, which could cost tens of millions of dollars or more, one of the Japanese government sources said.

"The Indo-Pacific is a large area of focus for the U.S. and our allies and strategically postured capabilities in the region are critical to support deterrence and maintain readiness," Lockheed Martin said in an email, referring questions about PAC-3 production in Japan to the Japanese and U.S. governments, and MHI.

Japan's Ministry of Defense declined to comment. MHI declined to comment.

A U.S. defence official said a $4.5 billion contract signed in June with the U.S. Army - the Patriot system's primary customer - marked the beginning of a ramp-up in production of both missiles and seekers.

Foreign and defence ministers from Japan and the United States are set to meet in Tokyo this month for talks that are expected to include deepening industrial cooperation on defence. The Patriot project is seen as a key part of that effort.

Even with help from allies, supply chain bottlenecks complicate U.S. efforts to supply Ukraine's demand for munitions, including air defence systems that can thwart Russian attacks.

In the deadliest wave of air strikes in months, a Russian missile in July struck a children's hospital, killing at least 41 civilians.

In December 2023, Japan eased military export rules to allow it to help replenish U.S. Patriot missile stocks, which had been tapped to help Ukraine.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, who called that a "historic decision", has been a leading proponent of deeper military industrial ties with Japan that could ease the strain on U.S. defence contractors.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed in April to deepen defence industry cooperation.

In an opinion piece published by the Wall Street Journal two months after that meeting, Emanuel described a shrunken U.S. military industrial complex as a "weak link" that had been exposed by the Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict.

 

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-japan-patriot-missile-production-plan-hits-boeing-component-roadblock-2024-07-20/

 

That's for PAC-3

PAC-2 is currently at 240 a year. So current total if counting both is 500+240 for 740. Aim 3 years from now is 750+420 for 1140. But maybe better to keep the counting separate for both PAC-3 and PAC-2. 

...

Quote

 

Four NATO countries — Germany, Romania, Spain and the Netherlands — are coming together to buy 1,000 PAC-2 GEM-T missiles and will do a large amount of production in those countries, primarily Germany.

By pooling their resources, the countries get an economic order discount, and since they are being bought collectively, the missiles will be distributed based on priority of need, Laliberty explained.

Raytheon went under contract at the beginning of the year with NATO. While some components will still be made stateside, Raytheon is expanding its supplier base in Europe to build critical GEM-T components and will build an all-up round integration and test facility with Germany’s MBDA.

MBDA subsidiary Bayern-Chemie will become a new rocket motor manufacturer for the missile, and another company in Spain will build a new control actuation system.

Overall, Raytheon’s production of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles is ongoing, with a contracted backlog of approximately 1,500 missiles, including the NATO order and an estimated near-term demand of an additional 1,000 missiles. The company is producing roughly 20 missiles a month and, with the added capacity being through international initiatives, is on a path to reach 35 missiles a month by the end of 2027, according to Laliberty.

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/

[futon]

The Peace Unity-2024 joint military exercise between China and Tanzania entered the live-fire drill phase with an opening ceremony at the Tanzanian military's Comprehensive Training Center on July 29. During the exercise, troops will jointly carry out drills on land and at sea, aiming to hone their capabilities in joint counter-terrorism maneuvers.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-07-31/China-Tanzania-joint-military-exercise-enters-live-fire-drill-phase-1vG6wVYYfu0/share_amp.html

[futon]

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Shandong Carrier Strike Group deployed out to the Philippine Sea for a second time this year, with Japan issuing a sighting report of the CSG’s presence Monday.

Carrier CNS Shandong (17), cruiser CNS Yan’an, destroyer CNS Zhanjiang (165) and frigate CNS Yuncheng were sighted 261 miles south of Miyako Island around 6 a.m. Monday. A map in the release shows the location being roughly in the vicinity of its past deployments to the Philippines Sea.

Japan Maritime Self Defense Force destroyer JS Akizuki (DD-115) shadowed the PLAN CSG. Shandong conducted flight operations with its embarked fighter jets and helicopters, according to the Japanese release.

Shandong previously deployed to the Philippine Sea between July 9-18 then returned to its homeport at Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island. Last year, the carrier deployed three times to the area. Its initial deployment was in April, when it operated for 19 days in the Philippine Sea, followed by a five-day deployment in the Philippine Sea in September. The third deployment, in October and November, to the Philippine Sea lasted 12 days.

The Shandong CSG arrived in the Philippine Sea at the same time as the Abraham Lincoln CSG left the area. The Lincoln CSG is heading to the Middle East as part of the ongoing U.S. response to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. On Sunday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the carrier strike group to accelerate its transit, although it will still take the ship up to seven to nine days weeks, USNI News reported.

On Friday, USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) conducted a bilateral bilateral multi-large deck event (MLDE) in the Philippine Sea with the Italian Navy Cavour Carrier Strike Group.

The MDLE comprised of more than 7,500 U.S. and Italian sailors and Marines, was an opportunity to engage in joint operations, including enhanced maritime communication operations, air warfare operations and cross-deck flight operations to strengthen maritime integrated-at-sea operations and combat readiness, according to a Navy release.

...

Participating ships in the MDLE were carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and destroyers USS Spruance (DDG-111) and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG-121) and the Cavour CSG made up of Italian aircraft carrier ITS Cavour (550) and Italian frigate ITS Alpino (F594), according to the release.

On Sunday, the Cavour CSG arrived in Guam for a port visit before continuing to Japan, where it will conduct a number of exercises and engagements.

The 15th MEU and the Republic of Korea Marine Corps will participate together in a series of combined training events in the vicinity of Pohang, South Korea, starting Monday, according to a Marine Corps release.

Elements of the 15th MEU arrived aboard amphibious assault ship USS Boxer (LHD-4) and amphibious dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry (LSD-49), and that the training will include a series of live-fire and non-live-fire events from infantry, artillery and aviation units, according to the release.

...

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/12/chinese-aircraft-carrier-shandong-deploys-to-philippine-sea

[JWB]

Mind numbing propaganda:

 

[futon]

BMD execise carried out by HMAS Sydney and an E-7A, ITS Montecuccoli, JS Haguro, ROKS Yulgok Yi I, HNLMS Tromp, USS Carl M. Levin, USS Kidd, USS Shiloh and a P-8A and an MQ-9. Went from July 29th to August 13th around Hawaii.

https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3877190/us-allies-execute-pacific-dragon-2024-exercise/

[futon]

The following ships plus a Japanese sub and P-1 conducted joint-training from Aug 27 to Aug 29 along Japan's southern waters. 

https://www.mod.go.jp/msdf/en/release/202408/20240830en.pdf

Video by Marina Militare of the sailing.

 

[futon]

Maybe more after Patria.

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The defense ministers of Japan and Finland agreed Thursday to advance discussions on establishing frameworks for defense equipment transfers and information security, the Japanese government said.

At their talks in Tokyo, Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and his Finnish counterpart, Antti Hakkanen, also agreed to further ramp up collaboration against unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion, according to the Defense Ministry.

...

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240912/p2g/00m/0in/039000c

[futon]

Even though the name is clarified, the irony can't be ignored. US and PRC soldiers in Brazilian exercise.

The Brazilian Navy said in a recent announcement that for the first time, the US and Chinese military personnel are taking part in the joint military exercise, “Operation Formosa,” hosted by the Brazilian Armed Forces.

Operation Formosa is one of the biggest military drills to be conducted in Latin America since the late 1980s. The military drills are hosted close to the Brazilian city of Formosa and do not have any link with Taiwan, known as Formosa before being renamed in 1895.

The Brazilian Ministry of Defense stated that more than 3,000 soldiers are currently training as part of the drills that are supposed to continue till September 17.

China participated in Operation Formosa last year but it was only in the capacity of an observer while the US had sent troops from the US South Command.

A Brazilian Defense Ministry spokesperson told Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, that this year’s exercise includes 33 personnel from the Chinese Navy and 54 from the United States Navy, marking the rare participation of troops from both nations.

...

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-china-come-together-for-formosa-military-drills/amp/

[Roman Alymov]

Interview with last US Ambassador to USSR https://youtu.be/yHn98LaCN3I?feature=shared

[glenn239]

Somebody is deploying drone swarms over US air bases, including Langley and the naval station at Norfolk,

https://www.newsweek.com/drones-langley-air-force-base-us-military-mystery-1968605

 

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

This has been happening for years.

[glenn239]

A more detailed report,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/drone-swarms-targeting-us-military-bases-operated-by-mother-ship-ufo/ss-AA1siFRR?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=dac477a83075426da05f4f6c3415389c&ei=12#image=1

Officials at Langley would appear to agree, admitting that the December 2023 'drone' swarms proved to be impossible to pin down. The rogue fleets of small aircraft would disappear into thin air each night despite being hunted by the best hardware the Air Force and NASA had on hand. The episodes were 'so sustained and disruptive that an entire fighter wing had to be relocated to another base,' according to Mellon, who wrote about the case in May. General Glen VanHerck, the commander with North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command, who led the mission to takedown the infamous Chinese spy balloon back in February 2023, described these Langley cases as unlike any other.

So, the usual suspects are the Chinese, the Russians, the UFO's, some other actor capable of this stuff, or the US government itself.  

[futon]

Video of JS Kaga departing San Diego for testing with F-35Bs.

Testing has started.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/0facabbfbf22-us-f-35b-makes-1st-landing-on-japan-sdf-carrier-kaga-off-san-diego.html

[futon]

ROKS Marado at Yokosuka.

Yokosuka, Kanagawa Pref. Nov. 7 (Jiji Press)--Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani visited a South Korean naval ship and interacted with its crew on Thursday at the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Yokosuka base in the city of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo.

It is the first time Japan's defense minister has boarded a South Korean military vessel, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry.

Nakatani's visit was aimed at demonstrating defense cooperation between Japan and South Korea and deepening exchanges between the two sides in light of their improving relations.

...

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2024110700154/japan-defense-chief-makes-1st-boarding-on-s-korean-naval-ship.html

[futon]

Currently the 52 surface combat ships in the JMSDF are organized under "Fleet Escort Force"  in 4 "Escort Flotillas" and 5 "Escort Squadrons". And all the minesweepers are in its on unit called "Minesweeping Flotilla".

Next year, a restructuring will occur.

The overhead unit will become "Surface Force". All the current 52 ships and the minewarfare ships will be organized into 3 "Surface Combat Groups" (Yokosuka, Kure, Maizuru) and 1 "Amphibious Combat Mine combat group" (Sasebo)

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/articles/2e9f885dcf581cecd782094fed6719b71334c8d6

 

 

[futon]

A promo video of Armée de Terre française in Japan back in September. An article about it follows.

 

The French army is taking part in joint drills with Japanese forces this week for the second year in a row. Named after a 19th-century military collaboration between the two countries, the Brunet-Takamori exercises send a message to China and Russia about Japan's expanding defence partnerships with other countries.

Nearly 50 French troops have been deployed to Japan for the Brunet-Takamori 2024 exercise, which sees the French Army's 2nd Foreign Infantry Regiment train alongside the 39th Infantry Regiment of the Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force.

The training, which concludes on Saturday, is taking place at the Ojojihara and Iwateyama manoeuvre camps in northern Japan. Focused on infantry combat operations, the drills are being supported by drones.

...

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20240920-france-and-japan-hold-joint-military-exercises-in-signal-to-china-russia

 

France's carrier to train with Japan along its Asia tour next year in Feb/March.

A French naval official said on Tuesday during his visit in Japan that part of a French carrier strike group - Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike Group (CSG) - is due to visit Japan sometime between February and March next year. 

The commander of the French navy in the Pacific region, Rear Admiral Guillaume Pinget, was interviewed by the media on Tuesday in Tokyo. Pinget, who himself commanded the Charles de Gaulle between 2019 and 2021, said that while France as a Pacific nation regularly sends warships to the Indo-Pacific, this will mark the first deployment of a French carrier strike group to the wider region in over four decades," the Japan Times reported.

...

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202412/1325358.shtml

[urbanoid]

Nothing to see here, move along

Quote

Trio charged in Germany for pro-Russia plot targeting US bases in Bavaria

GRAFENWOEHR, Germany — Three men have been charged with spying on U.S. military bases for Russia and plotting attacks on American personnel in retaliation for Western support of Ukraine, German prosecutors said. The men, identified only as dual German-Russian nationals Dieter S., Alexander J. and Alex D., were charged Dec. 9 in the Munich Higher Regional Court with suspicion of working for a foreign intelligence agency, according to a statement Monday from the German federal prosecutor’s office. Dieter S., who prosecutors say was the plot’s ringleader, was also charged with acting as a sabotage agent, conspiracy to cause an explosion and arson, declaring his willingness to interfere with rail traffic and endangering security by taking pictures of military installations. The case first made headlines in April after Dieter S. and Alexander J. were arrested in Bayreuth, about 20 miles northwest of Tower Barracks in Grafenwoehr, the prosecutor’s office said at the time. Police raided the men’s homes and workplaces. The pair surveilled U.S. military facilities, including the Army training area in Grafenwoehr, with the intention of disrupting NATO logistical support to Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia, German news magazine Der Spiegel reported in April. Ukrainian forces receive combined-arms and weapons training there. German law enforcement officials typically withhold the full identity of suspects due to the country’s strict privacy laws. Dieter S. became acquainted with a Russian intelligence agent while battling Ukrainian forces starting in 2014 as a member of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, the prosecutor’s office statement said. Donetsk is a province in eastern Ukraine that has been the scene of heavy fighting since the 2014 Russian invasion, which served as a precursor to the ongoing full-scale war that the Kremlin launched in February 2022. Dieter S. was charged Oct. 18 with suspicion of membership in a foreign terrorist organization, the Donetsk People’s Republic, the statement said. The group is reported to have used violence against civilians and was often involved in “intensive confrontations,” according to German authorities. In October 2023, Dieter S. began exchanging information with the agent about possible sabotage in Germany and scouted potential targets, prosecutors allege. He passed on images of military transports and goods to his Russian handler, said he was willing to carry out bomb and arson attacks against military and industrial sites, and promised to attack railway lines used to move military equipment, authorities said. Alexander J. and Alex D. began helping in March, the statement said. Prosecutors did not specify what that help entailed. Of the three, Alex D. is the only one who remains at large.

https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2024-12-31/dual-nationals-charged-spying-russia-16331452.html

[Stuart Galbraith]

Look where appeasement got us. They all but decalred war on us, and we are too stupid to respond to it.

[futon]

New Year's Lai, president of Taiwan:

...

Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. Taiwan needs to prepare for danger in times of peace. We must continue increasing our national defense budget, bolster our national defense capabilities, and show our determination to protect our country.

Everyone has a responsibility to safeguard Taiwan’s democracy and security. We must gather together every bit of strength we have to enhance whole-of-society defense resilience, and build capabilities to respond to major disasters and deter threats or encroachment. We must also strengthen communication with society to combat information and cognitive warfare, so that the populace rejects threats and enticements and jointly guards against malicious infiltration by external forces.

Here at home, we must consolidate democracy with democracy. Internationally, we must make friends worldwide through democracy. This is how we will ensure security and peace.

The more secure Taiwan, the more secure the world. The more resilient Taiwan, the sounder the defense of global democracy.

...

https://english.president.gov.tw/News/6893

 

New Year's Xi, president of China:

...

On the eve of the 25th anniversary of Macao's return to the motherland, I visited the city again, and I was gratified to see the new progress and changes there. We will unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems to maintain long-term prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macao. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same family. No one can ever sever the bond of kinship between us, and no one can ever stop China's reunification, a trend of the times.

...

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/zyxw/202412/t20241231_11524948.html

[futon]

On 1/7/2024 at 10:35 PM, futon said:

Annual Demonstration Exercise by 1st Airborne Brigade on Jan 7th at Narashino grounds in an island recapturing scenerio. About 2000 personnel from the Brigade participated, about 45 from the US, and 80 collectively from the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, Indonesia, and as an observor, Cambodia . The US participation in the annual exercise started in 2020. The UK joined the first time last year. It's the first time for all the other countries. 

https://www.sanspo.com/article/20240107-E7SERM7B2FJRVH2PULB7BMOTSY/?outputType=amp

 

This year's Demonstration Exersise of the 1st Airborne Brigade was on Jan 12th. 2000 personnel from the JGSDF while collectively 200 personnel from 11 other countries, those being the US, Canada, Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, the UK, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland. 

https://www.sankei.com/article/20250112-4MUXPY2DCFOKZEU4SW655SDTAI/