Cold War, The Reimagined Series

[Stuart Galbraith]

Tell them 'We want the Kuriles back, or we arm the Golden horde, and wake up Godzilla'.

[Rick]

On 3/9/2014 at 10:26 AM, BansheeOne said:

I've been working on this, but as usual wanted too much to soon and got bogged down in the details of which battalion with what equipment would be where. The higher echelons are much clearer. Assumptions:

 

- There will be no new NATO members. Finland is free to join now, but as they haven't done so over the last 20 years, they may feel they're besser off alone than with the alliance obligations that come with a membership. Sweden has shown even less aspirations, as has Austria. Ukraine won't get in with open territorial disputes with Russia, as will Georgia or other former Soviet states.

 

- There will be no increase in troops or equipment other than what is currently planned (including upgrades of existing systems), though decisions to get rid of "outfashioned" non-expeditionary heavy stuff may be revised and existing units may be shuffled around to get formations better suited to conventional warfare. Strained budgets still rule.

 

- NATO members on the eastern border will primarily task their troops to protect their own soil. "Second line" nations may deploy some forces forward, but not to the extent of the Netherlands or Belgium who had basically all of their active land components based in Germany during the Cold War; additional global obligations are unlikely to reduce to the levels of that period again, though they will be given less priority.

 

- Southern members will stick to the traditional mission of securing the Mediterranean flank, though with borders moved to the Black Sea, this is a much less likely threat now. There will be no major relocation of forces from the US and Canada to Europe.

 

The most basic divide could be between JFC Brunssum dealing with the northeast from Norway to the Black Sea, and JFC Naples with the southern flank including Turkey and the Black Sea itself. Below Brunssum, existing corps take over sectors, reverting from their prevalent role of expeditionary HQs today. In fact I envision ARRC becoming responsible for Norway, since that country has a small "front" and is not the most likely target for Russian expansionism, therefore not needed to be heavily garrisoned rather than reinforced in crisis. NOR Brigade Nord could be quickly backed up by UK 3 Commando Brigade (including a NL Korps Mariniers battalion group) per their old Cold War mission, and UK 16 Air Assault Brigade. If that's not enough, I see that under Army 2020 UK 3 Division becomes the designated reaction force with three armoured infantry brigades (plus, I guess, some armoured field artillery regiments and other attachments).

 

Multinational Corps Northeast could take over the Baltic states; it's there I'm currently stuck due to overorganizing peace and wartime assignments for the minuscule local forces. The corps has GER 1st Panzer, POL 12th Mechanized and Danish Division assigned today (though the Danes seem to have plans to switch to ARRC); the current German plans for alliance support amount to a division command capable of taking in partner forces, with two brigades, division troops and a strong mixed helicopter force (probably one Tiger and NH 90 squadron each) as national elements. If we're actually basing them forward, 1st Panzer's current brigades would need some swapping of units though since as our primary reaction force, unlike the British plans they have gotten more light infantry rather than armor battalions, which is exactly what is not needed there. They also have currently just one of the grand total of four artillery battalions we have left.

 

Danish Division is a HQ in peacetime only, and they have just two brigades total; I guess one could round out 1st Panzer in peacetime, and DANDIV would only fully deploy in crisis (grand total of Danish artillery: one firing battalion). Their third brigade could be Lithuanian "Iron Wolf" with whom I understand they have an association agreement. This is the only real active mechanized brigade in the Baltic states; they could be under POL 12th Mechanized in peacetime though since they're immediate neighbors, so the Poles would only need to deploy two brigades, too (which they might also want to swap around a bit to have their Leopard 2-equipped units work with the Germans and Danes for logistical ease). That would leave them eight in two divisions under POL 2nd Mechanized Corps to take care of their own border, possibly reinforced by GER 10th Panzer Division in crisis. The Latvians and Estonians are very mobilization-dependent and have only two and one active infantry battalions respectively in peacetime (which could also attach to the Germans and Poles), but will form four brigades each in wartime.

 

South of Poland, I'm not sure yet. The Romanians can also form their own corps of three divisions, but I'm a bit worried that they are driving, in the end, merely much-updated T-55s for MBTs. In the center, the Hungarians and Slovaks have two brigades each with another two Czech ones in the rear; the Bulgarians have also two behind the Romanians, all of the latter using various modernized T-72 variants as armor. I thought the Italians and/or Greek might want to move some Ariete/Leopard 2-equipped brigades forward, though they're strictly speaking on the southern rather than the eastern flank. The French have also traditional good relations with the Romanians, but only two heavy armor brigades left; I see them more as bringing up their wheeled armor as quick reinforcements in crisis, along with airborne forces (this includes the future joint Dutch-German air assault division and US 173rd Airborne Brigade).

 

The only other US maneuver elements left in Europe are of course 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment and 12th Combat Aviation Brigade. Maybe they could back up the center, though I would like that better if those M1s recently redeployed to Germany for training purposes would be in actual operative use.

I don't follow European events closely, but has any of the above come to pass?

[ink]

46 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Tell them 'We want the Kuriles back, or we arm the Golden horde, and wake up Godzilla'.

Wait, weren't you against taking other people's territory before? 😎

[sunday]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Wait, weren't you against taking other people's territory before? 😎

He is not for returning Gibraltar, either.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, ink said:

Wait, weren't you against taking other people's territory before? 😎

Thats only when it wasnt funny.

 

 

[ink]

48 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Thats only when it wasnt funny.

😆

[ink]

57 minutes ago, sunday said:

He is not for returning Gibraltar, either.

In all seriousness, it should be about the wishes of the people who live there. That's why I think Kosovo was lost to Serbia a long time ago, by the communists (or earlier - by the Royal government, one could argue).

But that would be in a world where the powers that be genuinely cared about such things.

[sunday]

2 minutes ago, ink said:

In all seriousness, it should be about the wishes of the people who live there.

Yep, tell that to the inhabitants of the part of Hong-Kong that was leased in perpetuity to HM Government.

[ink]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Yep, tell that to the inhabitants of the part of Hong-Kong that was leased in perpetuity to HM Government.

Of course, and a million other examples too.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Yep, tell that to the inhabitants of the part of Hong-Kong that was leased in perpetuity to HM Government.

How do you bridge the divide of being an ardent anti imperialist and an ardent imperialist at the same time? You must wake up screaming in the night at the pain of your poor fractured personality.

 

Edited August 8, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 minutes ago, ink said:

Of course, and a million other examples too.

Pst, Spain has colonies too! Some of they there weren't even run out of at the end of a British musket.

 

[ink]

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Pst, Spain has colonies too! Some of they there weren't even run out of at the end of a British musket.

 

Well indeed.

[sunday]

2 hours ago, ink said:

Well indeed.

First news I have that Spain currently has colonies.

However, anything is possible in Stuartworld.

Edited August 8, 2024 by sunday

[Stuart Galbraith]

Sure, declare someone else's land yours. That always works, ask the French.

[ink]

11 minutes ago, sunday said:

First news I have that Spain currently has colonies.

However, anything is possible in Stuartworld.

I don't want to get into it, if that's ok. I don't feel I know enough about Spain's history or current affairs. 

I will say, however, that borders generally seem to be a rather fluid thing - especially in Europe's relatively recent history.

[sunday]

23 minutes ago, ink said:

I don't want to get into it, if that's ok. I don't feel I know enough about Spain's history or current affairs. 

I will say, however, that borders generally seem to be a rather fluid thing - especially in Europe's relatively recent history.

Which are the Spanish colonies? Ceuta? Melilla? The Canay Islands? Llívia?

See the BBC

Quote

But what does international law say on the claim and the counter-claim?

"Under international law, Morocco doesn't have strong claims to Ceuta and Melilla, which have been Spanish for hundreds of years. There are significant legal and political barriers to any change in status of those territories in favour of Morocco," writes Dr Jamie Trinidad of Cambridge University in the UK.

"Politically, the fact that the populations of Ceuta and Melilla wish to remain Spanish is the most significant barrier to any change of status. The idea of Morocco taking over these cities against the wishes of their populations is almost unthinkable in this day and age," he adds.

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Ceuta-and-Melilla-not-considered-colonies

Quote

Because they have been part of the Spanish state for over 500 years, and the population is over 70% ethnically Spanish…..the question hints that because they are on the African mainland, it is somehow against some law that they are populated by ethnically European people who wish to retain the status quo…..this is like a form of reverse racism, because just because a city is located in Africa does not automatically mean it is under foreign colonial power, because both cities are not Spanish Colonies, they are Spanish cities, they just don’t happen to be located on the Iberian Peninsula……and one more thing, you are not doing anybody any favours by suggesting that the cities are given to Morocco, because thats the last thing they want, and by *they* I mean the Moroccans because as Spanish exclaves they are teeming with business opportunities, and poor people carry huge bundles of cheap imports to sell accross the border in Morocco, so do you want all those impoverished people to go without work just because you thought Ceuta was waiting for liberation…..its like Gibraltar too, it may annoy the Spanish on a purely patriotic level, but on an economic level, there are fortunes to be made by cross border smuggling, so just leave the four states that form the shores of the Strates of Gibraltar to their own devices, because they won’t thank you if they just turn once prosperous outposts into towns without special status and business opportunities.

Usually, time trying to reason with Stuart is time mostly wasted, so I shall not try.

Edited August 8, 2024 by sunday

[Josh]

Why would any of those enclaves count as colonies any less than Gibraltar? Is the legal status that different?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Because they have a Spanish flag flying over them of course.

A couple of months ago I finally read the girl with the dragon tattoo, and there was a scene set in Gibraltar. And even Stieg Larsson noted the hypocrisy of the Spanish bleating about Gibraltar, whilst still owning colonies on the other side of the Med. Oh, how I laughed..

[Stuart Galbraith]

So if you know anything about the UK, this is huge. 50 years ago, an MOD briefing document talked about retaining 6 days of ammunition to fight WW3.

That we are talking about retaining warfighting levels, suggest to me somewhere in the MOD is the belief that war is getting very near.

 

[ink]

10 hours ago, sunday said:

Which are the Spanish colonies? Ceuta? Melilla? The Canay Islands? Llívia?

 

Like I said, I don't know sh!t.

[Josh]

46 minutes ago, ink said:

Like I said, I don't know sh!t.

Nor do I, but I would like to. If there is some kind of legal difference or some kind of referendum that makes Spaninish territory outside of Spain more legal than British territory outside Britain, I would like to know. As a U.S. citizen, I can say all three countries seem to bend the rules when it suits them, so it it seems, but perhaps the Spanish have different circumstances. I honestly have not look into it and am asking the question.

[ink]

3 minutes ago, Josh said:

Nor do I, but I would like to. If there is some kind of legal difference or some kind of referendum that makes Spaninish territory outside of Spain more legal than British territory outside Britain, I would like to know. As a U.S. citizen, I can say all three countries seem to bend the rules when it suits them, so it it seems, but perhaps the Spanish have different circumstances. I honestly have not look into it and am asking the question.

I think the problem here is "outside". What is and is "inside" and "outside" a country? Where does one draw the line.

(I'm not talking here about the Spanish situation, just making a general point)

[Josh]

2 minutes ago, ink said:

I think the problem here is "outside". What is and is "inside" and "outside" a country? Where does one draw the line.

(I'm not talking here about the Spanish situation, just making a general point)

Indeed, I think there would be a lot of historical context I do not have access to without a lot of effort. I was hoping the forum could provide, if there was a glaring difference.

Edited August 9, 2024 by Josh

[Ssnake]

I suppose Ceuta and Melilla don't count as colonies because they are older and longer in possession of the Spanish kingdom than the surrounding countries even exist.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its funny how nobody credits us that as the case for the Falklands.

 

There is this point which Sunday never seems to realise. Britain's right to own Gibraltar was agreed with the Spanish with the Treaty of Amiens of 1802.  This is significant, because the treaty not only ceded us Gibraltar, but...

Well, perhaps have a look at what was agreed.

• The restoration of prisoners and hostages.
• Britain to return the Cape Colony to the Batavian Republic.
• Britain to return most of its captured Dutch Guiana to the Batavian Republic.
• Britain to withdraw its forces from Egypt.
• Spain agreeing to British rule of Trinidad^[19]
• The Batavian Republic to cede Ceylon, previously under control of the United Provinces and the Dutch East India Company, to Britain.^[20]
• France to withdraw its forces from the Papal States and the Kingdom of Naples.
• French Guiana to have its borders defined.
• Malta, Gozo and Comino to be restored to the Knights Hospitaller and to be declared neutral.
• Gibraltar to remain under British rule.
• Menorca be returned to Spain.
• The House of Orange-Nassau to be compensated for its losses in the Netherlands.
• The Septinsular Republic was recognised by the signatory parties.

Most of these now are obviously outmoded. Except, you will notice Menorca, or the Balerics as they seem to otherwise be known.. If one accepts the idea that the treaty is null and void, then we would be wholy justified in relcaiming Menorca, a British posession illegally annexed by the perfidious Spanish Empire, by way of compensation. Because as Putin says, what was once ours, is always ours, etc etc etc. Anyone that has read Patrick O Brien would be well aware of this one.

Well, what the hell, it will keep the Lawyers busy for years.

In the end, Spain agreed Gibraltar was British at several points and several treaties, and the only argument they have for claiming otherwise is ownership of the water. Which tells you the mentality of the politicians arguing over it.

 

 

Edited August 9, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith