Cold War, The Reimagined Series

[Gregory]

I have puzzled over a better word for somebody who launches an inquiry when translating these things before. "Inquirer" would be obvious, but then I think of US tabloids.

Investigator?

[BansheeOne]

Well, they don't investigate anything themselves there, they were merely posing questions to the government as part of the parliamentary control rights. Though I'm starting to think that "inquiry" might be the wrong translation for Anfrage (which I would simply translate as "request" in any other venue) in the first place.

Edited March 24, 2015 by BansheeOne

[sunday]

No, the translation looks fine, but I found it kinda of hilarious, especially as one could imagine Cardinal Fang making those mistakes....

[Panzermann]

Oh well, five seconds with their web search engine of choice could have cleared the details and filled in the correct terms. The SED was more professional...

[Panzermann]

Polish Army summons reservists

23.03.2015 15:00

 

Selected members of the reserve forces are to turn up for military exercises immediately, the Ministry of Defence said Monday.

 

 

Polish Army summons reservists Selected members of the reserve forces are to turn up for military exercises immediately, the Ministry of Defence said Monday.

General Bogusław Pacek assures the step is nothing out of ordinary and bears no relation to theongoing crisis in Ukraine.

In an interview for broadcaster TVN24, the defence ministers advisor explained such a mode of operation, where individuals are obligated to reach a given military unit within hours, is the perfect test of the reservists readiness to perform.

The army may call up any male aged between 18 and 60 with a satisfactory medical history.

General Pacek stated that they would not be informed about the whereabouts of the military unit beforehand so as to ensure reliable results of the test.

According to a statement issued by the Defence Ministry on Monday, the exercise is conducted in line with plans to check the operational and mobilisation readiness in the Armed Forces in 2015, and stems from the [armys] need to accumulate well-trained reserve troops.

The authorities, however, affirm the drills are not to be linked with the enduring tension between NATO and Russia.

While the Ministry has refrained from disclosing the location of the military unit drawing its first reservists, the officials put the number of summoned men at several hundred. Some 12,000 are to be called for throughout the year. (aba/rg)

from Radio Poland: http://www.thenews.pl/1/2/Artykul/201195

[urbanoid]

Urbanoid, can you offer any additional insight into what's going on?

 

 

Defence initiatives do indeed become more and more popular in Poland, though on a state level the organisation is still lacking. For now the effects of Ukrainian conflict are:

 

1. High interest in paramilitary groups and/or shooting associations, sometimes the initiative comes from local governments. There's a campaign 'Reestablish the Home Army', to create territorial defense on a local level (still subordinate to MoD). When Union of Enterpreneurs and Employers ordered a poll, it turned out that even 100 thousand of enterpreneurs declares it's ready to take part in it, both financially and as members.

 

2. Calling up reservists for training more often. last week there were mobilisation drills of the chemical regiment, over 500 reserve and NSR members were given 4 hour notice to attend. It was done for the first time since 7 years, and it ended with a success, apparently. As for reintroducing the conscription (it was suspended, not abolished), it seems a political impossibility right now, we have an election year.

 

3. Acceleration of modernisation program for the armed forces, for example the dates of planned introduction of new attack helicopters is earlier than it was before. It also looks like the patience for the Polish MIC has run out in the MoD, the example could be going South Korean after no decent chassis for SP artillery was available after ... a decade? Since 2016 we should spend 2% of GDP, and it's likely that the government will no longer try to get around the law (1,95% GDP for defense) by 'persuading' the MoD to return part of the cash back to MF. This year we're going to spend 1,95%, but since the last part of the F-16 loan is to be paid, total expenses would be around 2,1%.

[Gregory]

 

Urbanoid, can you offer any additional insight into what's going on?

 

 

 

Defence initiatives do indeed become more and more popular in Poland, though on a state level the organisation is still lacking. For now the effects of Ukrainian conflict are:

 

1. High interest in paramilitary groups and/or shooting associations, sometimes the initiative comes from local governments. There's a campaign 'Reestablish the Home Army', to create territorial defense on a local level (still subordinate to MoD). When Union of Enterpreneurs and Employers ordered a poll, it turned out that even 100 thousand of enterpreneurs declares it's ready to take part in it, both financially and as members.

 

Are those groups anything like Estonian Kaitseliit?

[Andreas]

Bell-Boing

 

 

Not sure I would like to get on a Bell-Boing plane. Sounds painful.

 

All the best

 

Andreas

[Andreas]

They have CV22s based here in the UK? When did this start?

 

June 2013 apparently:

 

http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/2267/Birds-of-Prey-the-CV22-Osprey-in-the-UK

 

All the best

 

Andreas

[bd1]

i think this is great news! take that, russia!

 

https://euobserver.com/news/128217

 

 

France is to supply its Mistral warships to the EU foreign service instead of to Russia in a move designed to forge a “genuine European defence policy”.

The landmark deal comes after EU sanctions over Ukraine, last year, stopped France from transferring the first of the two vessels to Russia.

It also indicates deep EU scepticism on Moscow’s promises to make peace.

EU foreign relations chief Federica Mogherini said on Wednesday (1 April): “This purchase, by an EU institution, of two amphibious assault vessels, marks a historic step in ‘the framing of a common defence policy’, as envisaged in Article 42 of the Lisbon Treaty”.

“Last year witnessed the eruption of major new challenges in the EU neighbourhood … in this crucial time, the EU is determined to step up its security co-operation".

The French foreign ministry said it "underlines France’s commitment to the creation of a genuine European defence policy”.

It also said it'll help to preserve jobs in the French ship-building sector “at a difficult time”.

Under the agreement, the first of the ships, the “Sevastopol”, which is currently undergoing sea trials near the French port of St. Nazaire, is to be handed over to the EU in May.

It is to be renamed the “Juncker”, after European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, and to be posted to Riga, the capital of EU presidency Latvia.

The second ship, to be named the “Mogherini”, is to be transferred in 2016 and to be stationed in Lampedusa, an island in the EU top diplomat’s native Italy.

The €1.2 billion acquisition will be funded by the commission, the European Defence Agency, and the European Central Bank (ECB).

The Mistrals are capable of carrying 16 attack helicopters, four landing barges, up to 70 armoured vehicles, and 450 soldiers.

The Juncker will be manned by personnel from the Benelux Battle Group, comprising servicemen from Belgium and Luxembourg, but not the Netherlands.

The other 26 member states will be represented in minor capacities, including, for instance, British cooks.

The Juncker will sail under an EU flag, but will be registered in Panama for tax purposes.

The decision to deploy forces is to be made only if Nato declines to act.

It is made on the basis of a proposal by the EU Civil-Military Planning Cell and the European External Action Service, which must be endorsed by the EU Council’s Political and Security Committee and by a consensus of EU foreign ministers.

The European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee, and the Committee of the Regions must be “consulted” before action is taken, but will have no power of co-decision.

The ECB funding means the Juncker and Mogherini will also host “troikas” - groups of EU experts tasked with ensuring that operations are in line with austerity.

The Juncker’s initial task is to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic region.

But it will be moved to Luxembourg, a landlocked country, when Luxembourg takes over the rotating EU presidency in July.

The Mogherini will be staffed by Italian sailors and will stay in Lampedusa.

“It’ll defend EU values by detecting irregular migrants on their way to Europe and making sure they go back where they come from”, an EU source said.

 

i think this solves a lot of problems at once

[JasonJ]

 

 

They have CV22s based here in the UK? When did this start?

 

June 2013 apparently:

 

http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/2267/Birds-of-Prey-the-CV22-Osprey-in-the-UK

 

All the best

 

Andreas

 

Hmm, kept that very quiet. Im disappointed ive not seen them.

 

 

Maybe the British aren't so opposed to them? Ospreys in Japan make the news more than rarely. Japan has a Hate-Osprey-gumi, especially in Okinawa. But there's also quiet osprey fans. US Ospreys were first deployed to Japan in Okinawa in 2012 and since then have been stationed in a few other places throughout Japan. This year, the SDF is getting 5 and they will be stationed in Saga prefecture in Kyushu. 12 more are planned in the following years which will still need yearly budget approvals.

[Andreas]

 

 

They have CV22s based here in the UK? When did this start?

 

June 2013 apparently:

 

http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/2267/Birds-of-Prey-the-CV22-Osprey-in-the-UK

 

All the best

 

Andreas

 

Hmm, kept that very quiet.

 

 

You're not actually British, but hail from Irony Coast, right?

 

http://www.stripes.com/news/noise-not-safety-is-main-osprey-concern-in-hawaii-1.183812

 

Some good pictures here:

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesv9820/5645739192/

 

All the best

 

Andreas

Edited April 1, 2015 by Andreas

[Panzermann]

The Sidney Morning Herald:

Russian analyst urges nuclear attack on Yellowstone National Park and San Andreas fault line

 

March 31, 2015 - 12:36PM

 

By SU-LIN TAN

A Russian geopolitical analyst says the best way to attack the United States is to detonate nuclear weapons to trigger a supervolcano at Yellowstone National Park or along the San Andreas fault line on California's coast.

The president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems based in Moscow, Konstantin Sivkov said in an article for a Russian trade newspaper on Wednesday, VPK News, that Russia needed to increase its military weapons and strategies against the "West" which was "moving to the borders or Russia".

He has a conspiracy theory that NATO - a political and military alliance which counts the US, UK, Canada and many countries in western Europe as members - was amassing strength against Russia and the only way to combat that problem was to attack America's vulnerabilities to ensure a "complete destruction of the enemy".

 

"Geologists believe that the Yellowstone supervolcano could explode at any moment. There are signs of growing activity there. Therefore it suffices to push the relatively small, for example the impact of the munition megaton class to initiate an eruption. The consequences will be catastrophic for the United States - a country just disappears," he said.

"Another vulnerable area of ​​the United States from the geophysical point of view, is the San Andreas fault - 1300 kilometers between the Pacific and North American plates ... a detonation of a nuclear weapon there can trigger catastrophic events like a coast-scale tsunami which can

completely destroy the infrastructure of the United States."

He said the Russian geography on the other hand would protect it from a tsunami or a volcano attack. Few people live on the coast in Russia and Siberia which rests on basalt would withstand similar attacks.

 

Mr Sivkov, who spoke at the 2013 Moscow Economic Forum, said by 2020 to 2025 Russia would have amassed "asymmetric weapons" in its arsenal for the attack.

"The situation for us today is comparably worse than half a century ago," he said.

"The weakened economic potential in Russia, the loss of the 'spiritual core of what was the communist idea', and the lack of large-scale community allies in Europe such as the Warsaw Pact, Russia simply cannot compete against the NATO and its allies."

In December last year, the vocal military strategist told Russian newspaper, Pravda.ru that there is a "developing standoff between Russia and the West" and the US's ultimate goal was to "destroy Russia".

Mr Sivkov accused American politicians of committing several crimes including causing the deaths of 1,200,000 people in Iraq. He believed the only way for the "American elite" to be held

accountable was for its military forces to be destroyed.

"American politicians have committed a variety of crimes. Will anyone be held accountable for those crimes? What about the international law, the UN and other organisations? Are they doing anything?" he asked.

Mr Sivkov told Pravda that the idea of the US preparing for a serious war against Russia using cruise missiles was plausible given that it had already launched a thousand missiles in Yugoslavia and Iraq.

good old fear mongering and usa bashing from a think tank, sorry, from Academy of Geopolitical Problems. And yugoslavia thrown in for good measure and a erupting volcano.

[Gregory]

 

Russia threatens to use 'nuclear force' over Crimea and the Baltic states

Moscow would use a 'spectrum of responses' if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato.

According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military” if Nato moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

The Russians told the meeting, which took place in Germany last month, that an attempt to return Crimea to Ukraine would be met “forcefully including through the use of nuclear force”.

And they said if Nato sent arms to Ukraine this would be seen as “further encroachment by Nato to the Russian border” and “the Russian people would demand a forceful response”.

They added that “the same conditions that existed in Ukraine and caused Russia to take action there” existed in the three Baltic states, which like Ukraine have significant numbers of people who regard themselves as ethnically Russian.

Russia was considering taking steps in the Baltics, according to the notes, but this would most likely be “destabilising actions that would be even harder to trace back to Russia than those of eastern Ukraine”.

The notes suggest Moscow would avoid “injections of troops and heavy weapons in favour of other tools”.

“Russia would hope slowly to entice those Russian populations towards Russia without giving Nato a pretext to deploy troops,” the document adds.

If Nato then responded, that would make it “a potential co-aggressor against Russian-speaking minorities in Baltic states”, a situation described as “potentially more dangerous than that in Ukraine to the United States”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-to-use-nuclear-force-over-crimea-and-the-baltic-states-10150565.html

[JasonJ]

More lessons from the Norks?

[Gregory]

Estonia is planning to hold spring exercises, called "Hedgehog 2015". Up to 13000 soldiers, including from reserve, will participate. In particular, 7000 reservists will be called up for exercises. 4000 of them will form a reserve brigade, and will be called up for two weeks. The remaining 5000 will consist of conscripts, professional soldiers and Kaitseliit militia.

In total, 21000 reservists comprise so called "hot reserve" - soldiers who will be called up first in case of war. Because the call up comprises considerable fraction of the number, it will be possible to test whether the system works or not. The callup went out mostly to those who have completed their service in 2012,2013 and 2014.

 

The call up will work as follows: the reservists is supplied with arms and equipment ,after which he reports to his unit. The exercises will consist of small arms course refresher, as well as retraining on MOS skills. The exercise will then conclude with unit tactical training.

 

Besides this the following foreign units will take part: an airborne and a tank platoon from US, infantry company from UK, and two AAA platoons from Belgium and Germany. Air support will be provided by 4 Eurofighter Typhoons from UK and Polish Su-22s.

 

http://rus.delfi.ee/daily/estonia/grafika-ezh-proverit-smozhet-li-estoniya-mobilizovat-vojsko-dlya-otrazheniya-napadeniya?id=71132163

[BansheeOne]

It's not like there are to little soldiers in Europe after all; I can think of much more pressing necessities like regenerating equipment and training for conventional scenarios, and improving interoperability, political and procedural conditions for deployments even within NATO. I remain flabbergasted that apparently half the work for moving the VJTF into Poland and/or the Baltic states is in filing customs declarations to introduce military equipment - this in a supposedly borderless EU.

 

There is an interesting article in the current issue of "Europäische Sicherheit und Technik" which goes on relentlessly about lack of materièl and a myriad details of having high-readiness forces like the VJTF or allied troops regularly move across your territory that have been un-learned by Germany since the end of the Cold War. Among them:

 

- AFVs had to be collected from 17 bases to fully equip the battalion group at Marienberg which is the German main contribution to the Interim VJTF.

 

- Bundeswehr stocks of fuel and ammunition are for a mere seven days of operations at any moment.

 

- Readiness levels necessary for the VJTF have not been seen regularly by German troops since the onset of the détente policies of the late 60s.

 

- The article also questions whether overseas missions like still having 850 troops in Kosovo or 650 in Afghanistan can be afforded with the continuous obligations for the new NATO operations in Europe.

 

- The Bundeswehr and Deutsche Bahn have neglected to retain a sufficient number of railway cars for transport of large armor formations, and it's not even clear whether the existing stocks will support the growth in vehicle size and weight over the last 25 years. Most bizarrely, it seems unclear if there are sufficient loading ramps and tiedown chains left in depots.

- During the Cold War, German and allied troops had special rights for stuff like conducting oversize vehicle road marches at short notice. Today, such movements have to be registered with civilian authorities 30 days in advance and authorized by the state governments (some of which BTW with participation of the Left Party which is critical towards NATO and its response to the Ukrainian crisis).

 

- Even if no German troops are being deployed, Germany is a likely transit country for allied forces; diplomatic clearance for their entry alone typically takes 21 days, and all the logistics problems mentioned above also apply to supporting their movement through Germany.

 

- The extensive Host Nation Support system of the Cold War era has withered away with the overall level of allied forces in Germany. Oversize convoys typically need a police escort, but the state police agencies have been happily reduced over the last decades because Federal Police is always available to help out at planned mass events - except they may only have one or two days of warning here, have their own obligations, and only get borrowed their authority from the states in such cases. Allied troops moving through Germany will have to be provided with rest areas, overnight accommodation and food, but provision of the latter currently has to be requested ten days in advance. Also, will transiting forces have to pay the coming road toll and taxes for fuel? Etc. etc.

 

I'm not sure if all this is based on facts since the tone is rather alarmist and some points seem merely based upon rumor, but it gives a good picture of the extent of issues connected to returning to a high-readiness posture in Europe, and how much work on minute details it will take to make it happen. There are probably years of inter-department coordination, legislative changes and bureaucratic nightmares ahead, at least in a country as anal about regulations as Germany.

[Panzermann]

Do NATO military lorries pay the road toll already in existence for lorries?

But then I guess most if not all NATO armies are going to have to hire civilian transport, because they cut down their own and are going to pay it indirectly. And using civilian firms probably complicates legal matters further.

 

 

There are probably years of inter-department coordination, legislative changes

and bureaucratic nightmares ahead, at least in a country as anal about regulations as Germany.

And german lawmakers and administration have become even more obsessed with special snow flake exception rules for many special cases instead of defining one broadly applicable rule since the end of the cold war. e.g. there is more tax laws and accompanying literature published in Germany than the rest of the world combined. Other areas of legislation do not seem better.

 

Ironically the old laws and administrative rules and procedures from the cold war are for sure written down and stored in an archive somewhere. But I doubt that those could just be applied today. First thing will he to screen the books for politically incorrect language, because that is most important.

 

*sigh*

 

No wonder Putin thinks he can do as he pleases.

Edited April 9, 2015 by Panzermann

[BansheeOne]

NATO Exercise Tests How Rapid Reaction Force Is

Troops must be ready to fly out in 48 hours

By NAFTALI BENDAVID

April 9, 2015 8:19 a.m. ET

EINDHOVEN, Netherlands—When 200 Dutch troops converged on the air force base here this week, it wasn’t a routine case of reporting for duty but a test for a key element of NATO’s response to the renewed Russian threat.

Just after 9 a.m. Thursday, the final 80 troops, who had just traveled 60 miles from their home base, hopped off buses, grabbed their rucksacks and duffels from an accompanying green truck, and hurried into the air terminal.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in an exercise playing out in 11 countries, made its first attempt this week to test its revamped rapid-reaction force, the alliance’s highest-profile response to Moscow’s aggressiveness in Ukraine and elsewhere.

The goal was to see if the troops could be ready to board planes 48 hours after receiving an “order to move,” as specified in a new NATO policy. Previously, NATO’s response force aimed to mobilize in five days to two weeks, which NATO leaders agreed last September was too slow for new global threats.

About 1,500 troops took part in this week’s exercise, which lasted from Tuesday through Thursday. In eight countries, mostly headquarters personnel were involved, while in Germany, 900 troops moved to four central garrisons.

And in the Netherlands and Czech Republic, troops were actually transported to air bases as if they were about to be flown to a crisis area.

Officers said Thursday they were generally satisfied with the outcome, which met the 48-hour deadline, though they said they found areas for improvement.

Col. Mariusz Lewicki, chief military planner for the high-readiness force, said the first troops left their home bases within eight hours. “Our initial impression is we are very pleased with the results,” Col. Lewicki said.

Brig. Gen. Kees Matthijssen, commander of the Dutch 11th Air Mobile Brigade, said the exercise did reveal that adjustments had to be made. For example, commanders had not allowed enough time for the administrative requirements of transporting ammunition by air.

“Of course you find out things in an exercise like this that we could do better, but that’s what exercises are for,” Gen. Matthijssen said. “So far, I’m pretty happy. We’ve identified lessons, and we’ll incorporate them into procedures.”

More elaborate exercises are scheduled in the coming months. In June, troops won’t stop at the air bases, as they did Thursday, but will fly from several European countries to the Zagan Military Training Area in Poland, where they will practice maneuvers they might undertake in a real crisis.

[...]

NATO leaders stress that they see a resurgent threat not only from the east, meaning Russia, but also from the south, given the turbulence and terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

So while much of NATO’s focus has been on responding to Russia’s latest moves, the rapid-response force is designed to move quickly to wherever a threat emerges.

The force will conduct an exercise this fall in southern Europe, converging on Italy, Spain and Portugal. [This will actually be for next year's rotation.]

In the Netherlands, after the so-called “order to move” came Tuesday, troops were called to their bases and briefed, equipment was checked, vehicles were prepared, and the troops headed to Eindhoven.

The 48-hour deadline “is pressing us into a tight schedule,” Gen. Matthijssen said. “It’s a difference in the mind-set.”

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-exercise-tests-how-rapid-reaction-force-is-1428581995

[BansheeOne]

German Ministry of Defense has announced that future number of Leopard 2 in service is to be revised from 225 to 328; 100 will be bought back from industry for 22 mn Euro and modernized from 2017. This includes the full establishment for the six tank battalions of 44 each, 56 for training, and eight demonstrators for the Bundeswehr's procurement office.

Edited April 10, 2015 by BansheeOne

[Panzermann]

BansheeOne sits at the source in the dark heart of the Reichstag.

 

 

Well 264 Leopards in active combat units. Not too long ago that number was an order of magnitude greater...

 

And it is not just main battle tank numbers. Artillery, engineers and mechanised infantry have been cut down as well. Without that the additional MBTs are pointless.

Edited April 10, 2015 by Panzermann

[Gregory]

Has there been any interest from Poland or Baltics to buy surplus German Marders or Pzh2000?

Edited April 10, 2015 by Gregory

[bd1]

ex-german/NL pzh-2000 is in estonia´s sights, at least the procurement process for a batallion worth of SPG´s should start 2017 iirc. no certain candidates have been mentioned. marders -no, wre buying ~140m eur for 44 cv-9035NLs

and lithuania has started enquiries about SPG-s too

Edited April 10, 2015 by bd1

[Gregory]

Interesting. 400+ refurbished Marders could be had for 200 min euros in 2009. Seems like a bargain. Granted, CV90/35 is a far superior vehicle.

Edited April 10, 2015 by Gregory

[bd1]

i think 200 30-year old marders would be more than EDF can manage to maintain in some decent shape without very radical change of force structure...