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Cold War, The Reimagined Series


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On 1/17/2022 at 7:23 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Netherlands has sent a logistics ship into the Baltic, it's not clear if it's to shadow them or what.

So NATO is preparing for an invasion of Kaliningrad?

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4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Two divisions of S-400...

Russian "Дивизион"/French "Divizion"  =/= English "Division". "Battalion" would be more correct translation, through it is not perfect.

 

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12 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The entire Russian navy looks like its on exercises for next month, too.

February is expected to be very tense this year - if weather turn cold in Ukraine (Feb is coldest month),  it will be full scale energy crisis for both industry and population (due to local Gov neglected preparations for winter and they are running extremely low on coal and gas stocks).  Quite likely lots of factories and infrastructure may be damaged beyond repair, and effectively it will be the last winter of Ukraine-the-industrial-country. Of course, weather is unpredictable, but there are strong reasons both for Western handlers to use Ukrainian army now, till it is still supported by some industry, and for local Gov to launch attack to distract public from their own failure. March may be too late as snow begin to melt  and roads unusable. Next window for pro-Ukrainian  attack is late April-early May, when snow already gone but leafs not grown. It is reasonable to keep Russian Army on high alert at that time.

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39 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

February is expected to be very tense this year - if weather turn cold in Ukraine (Feb is coldest month),  it will be full scale energy crisis for both industry and population (due to local Gov neglected preparations for winter and they are running extremely low on coal and gas stocks).

I don't think the Russian navy is sorting everything everywhere because Ukraine didn't pay the gas bills.

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25 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I don't think the Russian navy is sorting everything everywhere because Ukraine didn't pay the gas bills.

“Soviets are adversary, while enemy is Army”(c)US Admiral I do not remember the name of. I think the last thing Russian Navy would like to do is to idle in their bases while Army is staging the demonstration against possible conflict over Ukraine. They also want their piece of pie.

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We cannot have a naval exercise gap!

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Date 22.01.2022

NATO to hold major naval drills in the Mediterranean Sea

The US said the drills, which had not been listed earlier as part of scheduled exercises, had nothing to do with fears that Russia could invade Ukraine. Russia is also set to hold maneuvers at the same time.

The United States and NATO partners will conduct a 12-day maritime exercise in the Mediterranean Sea, beginning Monday, US Department of Defense spokesperson John Kirby said on Friday.

The maritime exercise, called "Neptune Strike '22" will run through February 4 and is meant to demonstrate and test NATO's maritime capabilities, according to Kirby.

The US announced the decision to hold NATO naval drills, which will involve the participation of the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier, a day after Russia said it would demonstrate its own naval capabilities for two months, January and February, from the Pacific to the Atlantic Sea.

The USS Harry Truman aircraft and its carrier group have been at the Mediterranean Sea since the middle of December, when the US ordered the aircraft carrier to position itself in the Mediterranean instead of making its way to the Middle East.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the decision was to "reassure" Europeans amid tensions with Russia.

The announcement came just hours after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in a bid to de-escalate tensions surrounding fears that Moscow might be preparing to invade Ukraine.

Pentagon maintains drills not directly aimed at Ukraine tensions

Kirby told reporters on Friday that tensions with Moscow had played a part in discussions about conducting the naval drills, but the NATO "exercise itself is not designed against the kinds of scenarios that might happen with respect to Ukraine."

Kirby also stressed that Neptune Strike '22 "really is a NATO maritime exercise to test... a wide range of maritime capabilities that we want to make sure we continue to improve."

But the maritime exercise does not appear on a list, published December 14, of the scheduled exercises for the year on the NATO website.

"There was due consideration about — given tensions right now — our exercise posture. And after all that consideration and discussion with our NATO allies, the decision was made to move ahead," Kirby said.

Russia announced its own maritime maneuvers in the Atlantic, the Arctic, the Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea, involving 140 warships and 10,000 servicemen, over the months of January and February.

https://www.dw.com/en/nato-to-hold-major-naval-drills-in-the-mediterranean-sea/a-60521598

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9 hours ago, seahawk said:

The Navy will at least force NATO to keep some forces in reserve against a potential amphibious landing in Denmark or Poland. This reduces the number of troop NATO can use to invade Russia.

They'll also place lots of missiles nearby to otherwise distant targets.

Edited by glenn239
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Yep, a self-inflicted problem.

 

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Estonia’s PM calls for greater US presence in Baltics

Plea for the west to remain united and not give even smallest concession to Moscow
 
Richard Milne, Nordic and Baltic Correspondent
 
Estonia’s prime minister called for a greater US presence in the Baltics to deter Russia as she made a plea for the west to remain united and not give even the smallest concession to Moscow.
 
Kaja Kallas told the Financial Times that Nato should strengthen its eastern flank in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania irrespective of whether Russia invades Ukraine, something many western experts increasingly fear after Moscow stationed more than 100,000 troops on the border.
 
She added that Estonia would like to see “the big allies present in our region”, an indirect call for US troops to be based in the Baltics as it is the only large Nato country without a presence in the region.
 
“The biggest deterrence there is that you have big friends. If you are bullied at school, the bully doesn’t bully you if you have strong and big friends, and it’s the same with deterrence . . . The biggest deterrence to Russia is an American flag,” she added.
[,,,]
FT

 

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Russia welcomes US counterproposals on ultimatums

2h ago

Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov has said there are "grains of rationality" in US offers on "secondary issues." The US has increased diplomatic pressure following Russia's extraordinary troop buildup near Ukraine.

Russia signaled some pleasure Friday with US proposals received in writing, in response to a series of ultimatums it had issued.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the counterproposals received by the United States were better than those received by NATO. The responses were to the ultimatums Russia had issued earlier this week over NATO expansion since 1997.

Russia has over 100,000 troops amassed on Ukraine's borders. The US and Europe have threatened "massive consequences" should Russia invade Ukraine.

It is unclear exactly what the US offered that NATO did not, but the US has held to its obligation to NATO allies and said NATO expansion and force posture were nonnegotiable.

John Sullivan, the US ambassador to Russia,  said Washington's counterproposals included curbs on military exercises and missiles in Europe. Sullivan said the US was now awaiting written responses from Moscow.

"If I put a gun on the table and come in peace, that's threatening," he said. 

Lavrov said the US proposal had "grains of rationality" on what he termed "secondary issues." He called it "almost an example of diplomatic propriety," whereas the NATO response was "idealized."

"I was a little ashamed for the people who wrote these texts," Lavrov added, referring to the NATO response.

[...]

Germany's foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said Russia was prepared to invade Ukraine but had not yet decided to.

"The crisis can develop in thousands of ways," Kahl said.

Speaking on Friday, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said war is only possible if Belarus or Russia are attacked. Belarus is currently hosting Russian troops and conducting war games with Russia.

In Central Europe, Slovak Foreign Minister Ivan Korcok confirmed in an op-ed for the liberal daily Sme media reports that Slovakia, which borders Ukraine, was in talks to receive NATO troops "in order to strengthen its defense."  

Hungary's Viktor Orban said his country would seek more Russian gas as the country faces a supply crunch.

Russian warships were also conducting exercises in the Black Sea.

https://m.dw.com/en/russia-welcomes-us-counterproposals-on-ultimatums/a-60586909

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On 1/11/2022 at 2:32 PM, Rick said:

 

I ask the following due to my lack of knowledge.
Why do these Russian individuals and families believe they are, apparently, financially and politically better off in the West? Is a distinction drawn between the U.S. and Europe when "West" is mentioned?

-    It is big story to tell as it evolved from early post-Soviet situation, when a)West was seem by next to every person from former USSR as some kind of magic land where everybody are happy millionaires and b)In “wild capitalism” of early post-Soviet Russia, it was physically unsafe for relatively rich people to stay in Russia, as their “business competitors” were not reserved in methods and c)there was no luxury infrastructure for rich elite. Of course now situation is different, money could buy everything in modern Russia except good climate, but now it is unsafe for “elite”,  who got the trace of crime from their early years, to stay within rich of Russian law, even with all imperfection when it comes to inevitability  of crime (see big bosses arrested for crimes commited 20 years ago). “West” is mostly not separated into “US” and “Europe” and from country to country (except some specific cases like Pugachev-the-banker)


I'm thinking out loud while typing, but it appears these "Western Russians" are acting as a middleman between Russian resources and Western markets?
There is a word for this middleman – “comprador bourgeoisie,” (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprador )


 Forgive me for my ignorance of foreign affairs, but what Russian resources are going to what Western businesses then to Western customers? 
Almost any kind of them, for example aluminium and titanium products (Boeing gets about 35% of its titanium from Russia - https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/16/news/russia-sanctions-retaliation-boeing-aerospace/index.html ) And this assets are controlled with relatively few rich people with unclear past.


Pardon me while I make an assumption that the Russian "middlemen" where, maybe still are, higher up government officials?
Now they are, mostly, not (at least not in ultimate forms of Ukraine where Pinchuk, son-in-law of President. became county’s richest man, or where oligarch Poroshenko became President) – but clearly they became so rich not because of their business talents, but because of links with Gov decision makers (often corrupt ones). That is why they feel the need to stay out of Russian law.
 

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On 12/19/2021 at 11:00 AM, BansheeOne said:

Meanwhile the below has caused some excitement for the timing of publication, but the video conference in question actually happened several weeks ago already - after the start of the Russian build-up vis-a-vis Ukraine, but long before the Russian demands for NATO withdrawl from Eastern Europe. Though the timing of the leak is probably indeed no accident.

I could see France and/or Italy take the lead in Romania (they're currently making rotating contributions to eFP Estonia and Latvia respectively) and Turkey and/or (ha) Greece, maybe Spain in Bulgaria.

https://www.dw.com/en/nato-mulls-deploying-troops-to-bulgaria-romania-der-spiegel/a-60182693

From what I'm reading, plans for the southern eFP equivalent - now including Hungary and Slovakia - are running under "enhanced vigilant activities". And yes, France has offered to take the lead in Romania.

It will be interesting to see whether this will lead to a permanent increase of eFP, too. The host countries have of course long wanted that. British plans to reinforce its presence with several hundred troops have been well-reported, and there are equivalent talks between Germany and Lithuania. By itself, that's nothing extraordinary; the eFP battlegroups regularly receive temporary add-ons for exercises providing critical capabilities they don't usually have, like artillery and NBC defense. The crucial point is "permanent"; I've said before that current providers wouldn't break a sweat raising deployments to brigade level (well, not so sure about Canada if its partners in Latvia became lead nations in the south themselves, actually).

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