Kiev Is Burning

[Blunt Eversmoke]

Get real. That's bizarre. Crimean Tatars conducting a successful armed uprising & joining Crimean to Turkey? That's crazy. They're 12% of the population, & poorer & less well educated than average. They have no chance at all of a successful armed uprising - & in any case, Turkey would run a mile from any suggestion of reincorporating Crimea. No sane Turkish government would want all those Slavs, or to fight Russia, or even Ukraine, over it.

 

 

Of course Turkey would as it stands now. And of course it is bizarre. Have I not said it is completely asinine, even? Am I not speaking about a SMALL percentage of the Crimean Tatars, only? Maybe I wasn't being clear enough: I am not throwing all Crimean Tatarians in one pot. I suppose that he vast majority of them is against a split-off because they fear an all-out civil war that would throw Ukrainian economy four-five decades back.

A small part of them is radical enough, however, to think in other terms: Were the current chaos to continue for twenty-thirty years, that would suffice for an explosion of Tatarian population in Crimea, and give them time to prepare a repeat of the Kosovo scenario, complete with NATO marching in: Screw like rabbits and make things uncomfortable for the rather docile Russian population of Crimea, forcing them to seek asylum in Russia proper (which is what the Ukrainian fascists who are currently in power WILL do as well if they remain in power for any prolonged period of time) till you ARE the ethnic majority, cache arms, enforce ties with radical islamists of Wherevermoneyisistan.

May well be that is what they are hoping for, however stupid that is.

This all was meant as a side-argument, anyway, as the chance for such a scenario are pretty slim as it stands.

 

 

Now, I am not one to hastily believe in conspiracy theories, but Ukraine willing to sign economical treaty with EU in the next months (sorry, found no source in English so far) would, in a theoretical conspiracy, mean "Goal reached!"

Were this to happen, it would mean complete degradation and ruin of whatever is left of Ukrainian industry and pauperization of the people, 90s style.

 

 

 

How is it the Germans manage to have one of the strongest economies in Europe? How the Eastern Europeans seem to have economies that, whilst perhaps not booming at the moment, seem to be performing slightly above expectations ? So clearly the EU is not the source of industrial malaise. Its just more often blamed for it.

Ultimately the Ukrainian economy is already failing. The EU might save it, it might not, but it wont be the cause of its industrial decline. its already underway.

 

As one Russian minister yesterday said (and I for one am given hope by this) that Ukraine doesnt HAVE to choose Europe or Russia. It can play the old game of Austria or Finland, ie, unaligned. And thinking on it, economically it might benefit from the best of 2 worlds, trading with Russia and trading with Europe.

http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/ukraine-revolutionary-radicals-taliban-750/

 

 

Interesting Sophie Shevardnaze interview with Mikhail Margelov, Russian senator and member of their foreign affairs committee. I dont agree with all the points but it does have some interesting things to hear about the Russian perspective on this.

 

Indeed a role of an economic ambassador, or, if you will, free trade zone between Europe and Russia is one that would suit Ukraine quite well, I agree.

 

With regards to industrial decline: Contracts that Russian state and industry signed with the industry in East Ukraine shortly before the current Maidan pandemonium started were meant to prevent just that.

 

As to the EU: While you can't blame the EU for everything, there were reasons why Yanukovich refused to sign that treaty. You might find a hint in the current (or recent) events in the newer EU members such as Bulgaria, Romania... Opening your market just won't do you any good unless your local producers are strong as a rock already - which the Ukrainian are not, not by any account.

So, who thinks Putin will seize the opportunity of the exercise to reincorporate the Crimea?

 

No one. No reincorporation needed. However, occupying Crimea and using it as a base for further operations (from support for the more sane forces of Ukraine to actually pacifying Ukraine) is surely an option considered.

[Yama]

 

It's because those countries are sucking money from rest of the EU...

Id be pretty astonished to find that Germany is, as they are the ones paying Greeces bills at the moment.

 

Germany is in fact the biggest parasite of EU, they're just more subtle than Greece. It's no coincidence that Germany's economy is doing great whilst rest of the EU withers.

[X-Files]

Germany ... parasite

 

 

Such familiar verbiage, but you need more kettledrums.

 

 

Armed men seize Crimea parliament and hoist Russian flag

Ukraine crisis escalates after Tatar leader says Crimea’s parliament building has been occupied by gunmen

 

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/27/armed-men-seize-crimea-parliament-reports

[X-Files]

"I am appealing to the military leadership of the Russian Black Sea fleet," said Olexander Turchinov, acting president since the removal of Viktor Yanukovich last weekend.

"Any military movements, the more so if they are with weapons, beyond the boundaries of this territory (the base) will be seen by us as military aggression," he said.

 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored calls by some ethnic Russians in Crimea to reclaim the territory handed to then Soviet Ukraine by Soviet Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.

 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored calls by some ethnic Russians in Crimea to reclaim the territory handed to then Soviet Ukraine by Soviet Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.

The United States says any Russian military action would be a grave mistake.

But Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement that Moscow would defend the rights of its compatriots and react without compromise to any violation of those rights.

It expressed concern about "large-scale human rights violations", attacks and vandalism in the former Soviet republic.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/ukraine-crisis-crimea-idUSL6N0LW0AY20140227

Edited February 27, 2014 by X-Files

[DKTanker]

So, who thinks Putin will seize the opportunity of the exercise to reincorporate the Crimea?

I think that is likely the case, and if there is little political resistance to it, he might include the rest of the Black Sea coast as far as Odessa. I see the west standing by like so many back benchers clucking their tongues, but in the end they/we will accept the new reality.

[Yama]

 

Germany is in fact the biggest parasite of EU, they're just more subtle than Greece. It's no coincidence that Germany's economy is doing great whilst rest of the EU withers.

Ok, on that point we respectfully part company because we are clearly on entirely different pages. I find it hard to criticise Germany for being economically viable because they made the correct decisions 20-30 years ago, whilst the rest of Europe rested on their laurels.

 

What the Germans have set up is essentially a modernized version of mercantilism, where they out-compete other economies within the Eurozone and maintain a huge trade surplus. It's almost impossible for Finland, for example, to compete with German products - climate, geography and economies of the scale make almost anything produced in Finland uncompetive compared to Germany. Now, what would normally happen is that Finnish currency would eventually devaluate, but since we're in the Euro, that can't happen so we're pretty much screwed.

[Yama]

 

So, who thinks Putin will seize the opportunity of the exercise to reincorporate the Crimea?

I think that is likely the case, and if there is little political resistance to it, he might include the rest of the Black Sea coast as far as Odessa. I see the west standing by like so many back benchers clucking their tongues, but in the end they/we will accept the new reality.

 

There is no chance for that happening, unless state of Ukraine itself suffers a catastrophic breakdown. Current situation of ethnically divided Ukraine is more preferable to Russia.

 

Unfortunately, the situation is potentially beyond Russian control. Russia has a doctrine where it defends the rights of Russians living in the neighbouring countries. Crimean separatists know this, and they know that if the Ukrainan government responds with force to their 'rebellion', it can be very difficult for Russia to not get involved.

[DKTanker]

What the Germans have set up is essentially a modernized version of mercantilism, where they out-compete other economies within the Eurozone and maintain a huge trade surplus. It's almost impossible for Finland, for example, to compete with German products - climate, geography and economies of the scale make almost anything produced in Finland uncompetive compared to Germany. Now, what would normally happen is that Finnish currency would eventually devaluate, but since we're in the Euro, that can't happen so we're pretty much screwed.

 

In the english vernacular we would say Finland stepped on their dick.

[rmgill]

 

 

Germany is in fact the biggest parasite of EU, they're just more subtle than Greece. It's no coincidence that Germany's economy is doing great whilst rest of the EU withers.

Ok, on that point we respectfully part company because we are clearly on entirely different pages. I find it hard to criticise Germany for being economically viable because they made the correct decisions 20-30 years ago, whilst the rest of Europe rested on their laurels.

What the Germans have set up is essentially a modernized version of mercantilism, where they out-compete other economies within the Eurozone and maintain a huge trade surplus. It's almost impossible for Finland, for example, to compete with German products - climate, geography and economies of the scale make almost anything produced in Finland uncompetive compared to Germany. Now, what would normally happen is that Finnish currency would eventually devaluate, but since we're in the Euro, that can't happen so we're pretty much screwed.

Perhaps you have a different understanding of the meaning of parasite?

[rmgill]

So, what, anyone up for a second Crimean War? These things do seem to come in twos, so it would be a right time for it.

Edited February 27, 2014 by rmgill

[DKTanker]

 

There is no chance for that happening, unless state of Ukraine itself suffers a catastrophic breakdown. Current situation of ethnically divided Ukraine is more preferable to Russia.

 

Unfortunately, the situation is potentially beyond Russian control. Russia has a doctrine where it defends the rights of Russians living in the neighbouring countries. Crimean separatists know this, and they know that if the Ukrainan government responds with force to their 'rebellion', it can be very difficult for Russia to not get involved.

 

There is no chance of what happening? The Crimea will be part of the new Russian Empire within weeks, if not days. Russia needs a port on the Black Sea and has the muscle power to ensure it happens. As for Odessa, perhaps not, but don't discount Russia using it as leverage to bring Ukraine tightly within the sphere of Russian influence.

 

You and John Kerry may wish this isn't happening, but it is, and neither he nor you are in any position to influence outcomes.

[Marek Tucan]

Well, Thin Red Line would look weird with SA-80s, fitted for but not with bayonets...

 

EDIT: In any case, if it comes to NATO-Russia conflict, opening move of the Czech army would be to bomb Karlsbad

Edited February 27, 2014 by Marek Tucan

[DKTanker]

So, what, anyone up for a second Crimean War? These things do seem to come in twos, so it would be a right time for it.

Not going to happen. There will be no more push back than there was with Georgia. Nobody takes seriously anything Obaminator says, and John Kerry is living in Fantasy Land if he believes he can avert an outcome by simply not participating.

[Yama]

Perhaps you have a different understanding of the meaning of parasite?

Etymology

 

From Latin parasitus, from Ancient Greek παράσιτος (parasitos, “person who eats at the table of another”), from noun use of adjective meaning "feeding beside", from παρά (para, “beside”) + σῖτος (sitos, “food”).

 

Hmm, no, I don't think so.

[DKTanker]

 

Etymology

 

From Latin parasitus, from Ancient Greek παράσιτος (parasitos, “person who eats at the table of another”), from noun use of adjective meaning "feeding beside", from παρά (para, “beside”) + σῖτος (sitos, “food”).

 

Hmm, no, I don't think so.

 

When the sheep lies down in front of the wolf, the wolf is not a parasite and the sheep is not a victim.

[rmgill]

 

Perhaps you have a different understanding of the meaning of parasite?

Etymology

 

From Latin parasitus, from Ancient Greek παράσιτος (parasitos, “person who eats at the table of another”), from noun use of adjective meaning "feeding beside", from παρά (para, “beside”) + σῖτος (sitos, “food”).

 

Hmm, no, I don't think so.

 

 

You wrote that in essence Finland was being out produced by Germany. Germany is putting out material, at a larger rate for lower cost right? That's not FEEDING. Thats producing. Unless you're unhappy that Finland is not as successful at the same sort of parasitic behavior that Germany is engaging in, in which case that sounds like sour grapes no matter how you slice it.

 

Economic Exports aren't parasitic behavior Yama, no matter how humpty dumpty you get with the word Parasite.

[Marcello]

Re the Russian threat, my own view is you could have Ronald Reagan in the white house right now, and he would do exactly the same Obama and George Bush(s) would do. Nothing. You dont pick fights you dont have to against nuclear powers, particularly when its right on their own doorstep.

 

 

Give or take. Thing is, in Georgia it was the local darling of the West who attempted a land grab, of territories claimed by Georgia to be sure but one is supposed to play nice about such things in this day and age, and no amount of western pro-Georgia coverage could erase that. While if Putin just jumps in Ukraine he is going to come out as the aggressor. Russia can screw with the West but the West can screw with Russia.

The chinese might end up having the last laugh, if their economy holds.

Edited February 27, 2014 by Marcello

[ink]

Re: the EU's economic interest in all this

Personally, I expect the EU to do very well out of quasi-expansion* involving the Ukraine.

 

First, the Ukraine will have to pay back the USD35bn, or whatever the bailout ends up costing, over time (with interest of course) so its a neat boost for EU banks.

 

Secondly, in order to pay back these loans the Ukraine will have to embark on a painful reform process which will also be great for EU businesses (1, the state administration will have to be reduced leaving lots of people out of work and bringing the price of Ukrainian labour down and, 2, state-owned enterprises will have to be sold off in a rush - read: at below market value - and can be picked up by established EU firms seeking to profit from the inexpensive acquisitions and low labour costs).

 

Thirdly, the EU can demand (as part of the accession process which will be inevitable for a heavily indebted Ukraine seeking pre-accession funds to cover its budget shortfalls) that the business environment is softened for the EU in the form of low import/export tarrfis, low taxes on FDI, fresh debt for infrastructure projects (which will magically be awarded to EU firms), etc.

In short, it will be a massive net benefit to the EU and to EU businesses - as was the case with the accession of every other country since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

 

German Chancellors love to complain about the way their taxpayers prop up the EU but in reality their economy is still riding a wave of benefits from EU expansion, which is why they want more.

 

 

* I say quasi-expansion because the EU has moved away from the model of expansion that involves actually granting full membership towards one where prospective member states have to continually jump through the pre-accession hoops that require them to 'open up' their economies before the EU reciprocates - by which time local firms that might have been able to compete have already been crushed by already well-established potential competitors from EU countries operating in a favourable environment.

 

 

As a mini-test, please tell me how many world-beating companies/corporations/brands from any post-Cold War accession countries you can name? I'm guessing none. They have all been crushed by the accession process or are, at best, in the hands of West European and other Western owners.

Edited February 27, 2014 by ink

[Blunt Eversmoke]

Re: the EU's economic interest in all this

 

Personally, I expect the EU to do very well out of quasi-expansion* involving the Ukraine.

 

First, the Ukraine will have to pay back the USD35bn, or whatever the bailout ends up costing, over time (with interest of course) so its a neat boost for EU banks.

 

Secondly, in order to pay back these loans the Ukraine will have to embark on a painful reform process which will also be great for EU businesses (1, the state administration will have to be reduced leaving lots of people out of work and bringing the price of Ukrainian labour down and, 2, state-owned enterprises will have to be sold off in a rush - read: at below market value - and can be picked up by established EU firms seeking to profit from the inexpensive acquisitions and low labour costs).

 

Thirdly, the EU can demand (as part of the accession process which will be inevitable for a heavily indebted Ukraine seeking pre-accession funds to cover its budget shortfalls) that the business environment is softened for the EU in the form of low import/export tarrfis, low taxes on FDI, fresh debt for infrastructure projects (which will magically be awarded to EU firms), etc.

In short, it will be a massive net benefit to the EU and to EU businesses - as was the case with the accession of every other country since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

 

German Chancellors love to complain about the way their taxpayers prop up the EU but in reality their economy is still riding a wave of benefits from EU expansion, which is why they want more.

 

 

* I say quasi-expansion because the EU has moved away from the model of expansion that involves actually granting full membership towards one where prospective member states have to continually jump through the pre-accession hoops that require them to 'open up' their economies before the EU reciprocates - by which time local firms that might have been able to compete have already been crushed by already well-established potential competitors from EU countries operating in a favourable environment.

 

 

As a mini-test, please tell me how many world-beating companies/corporations/brands from any post-Cold War accession countries you can name? I'm guessing none. They have all been crushed by the accession process or are, at best, in the hands of West European and other Western owners.

Taking up your argument and spicing it up with a healthy dose of cui bono: The Maidan was planned and financially backed by the EU, using the dissent caused by heavy corruption in Ukrainian government as well as the radical nationalist/revisionist/fascist forces present within ranks of the Ukrainian opposition, after the first try to sign the Ukraine-EU trade treaty, getting all the things you mention while giving, in essence, nothing.

Q.E.D

[TonyE]

It would be damn thin too, 12 bods from the 12th foot and mouth, filled out with levies from the Salvation Army and the Army Cadets

 

 

The Chelsea pensioneers could propably muster an additional regiment of foot (and cane) btw.

[Yama]

You wrote that in essence Finland was being out produced by Germany. Germany is putting out material, at a larger rate for lower cost right? That's not FEEDING. Thats producing. Unless you're unhappy that Finland is not as successful at the same sort of parasitic behavior that Germany is engaging in, in which case that sounds like sour grapes no matter how you slice it.

What you fail to understand here is that Germany has set up a system which is not unlike that between colonial power and a colony: trade relations between Germany and peripheral Eurozone countries are not equal, but Germany maintains a large trade surplus which is benefitting Germans more than the peripheral countries. In a 'normal' setting the trade would eventually balance itself out, by for example currencies revaluating. However, euro makes this impossible. One option peripheral countries have left is bashfully called 'internal devaluation' - ie. wage cuts: however this would kill the home markets even further.

 

To bring it back to Stuart's original post, EU and EMU sure are success stories for some EU countries, but it doesn't mean all EU countries benefit to same extent. And Germany certainly aren't 'paying Greece's bills' - the bailout was pittance. Especially when you consider that much of the bailout was used to pay Greece's weapons purchases from France and Germany, what a coincidence...

[Marek Tucan]

Hmm someone is swallowing Russian line hook, line and sinker. Sooo... If Maidan are fascist revisionist revanchist lackeys, it makes the other side stalinist communist genocidal lackeys. You were saying?

 

As for the deep economical conspiracies, let's just say that generally if foreign company is taking over a large "national treasure" industry, it usually means it is viable. Czechoslovakia been there, done that, there were far more problems with companies that were "kept Czech" along with inept leaders who didn't know what to do with them. Skoda Car really doesn't suffer by being owned by Volkswagen.

[ink]

Skoda Car really doesn't suffer by being owned by Volkswagen.

 

No, of course it doesn't. But Volkswagen (and therefore their German shareholders and, therefore, the German economy) has benefited enormously from being able to acquire Skoda for a pittance, employ low-wage (at the time) Czech workers, cut Czech red-tape by way of EU reforms... etc. This same model for success has been replicated again and again with EU expansion and not just through buying up formerly state-owned enterprises but also through lucrative infrastructure projects financed by EU loans (which do have to be paid back, you know), etc. One of the reasons Turkey isn't in the EU is that the US was flooding it with cheap finance and so it could tell the EU to f*** off.

Edited February 27, 2014 by ink

[DKTanker]

Why did Putin's puppets believe it best to beat and torture Yulia Tymoshenko?

[swerve]

 

 

Germany is in fact the biggest parasite of EU, they're just more subtle than Greece. It's no coincidence that Germany's economy is doing great whilst rest of the EU withers.

Ok, on that point we respectfully part company because we are clearly on entirely different pages. I find it hard to criticise Germany for being economically viable because they made the correct decisions 20-30 years ago, whilst the rest of Europe rested on their laurels.

What the Germans have set up is essentially a modernized version of mercantilism, where they out-compete other economies within the Eurozone and maintain a huge trade surplus. It's almost impossible for Finland, for example, to compete with German products - climate, geography and economies of the scale make almost anything produced in Finland uncompetive compared to Germany. Now, what would normally happen is that Finnish currency would eventually devaluate, but since we're in the Euro, that can't happen so we're pretty much screwed.

Nonsense! A very large part of the German economy is made up of small & medium sized manufacturing firms, which have no economies of scale. It's one of the strengths of their economy, & our lack of it is one of the reasons our industry has gone downhill. Finland can excel in niches, as the Mittelstand does - & indeed, Finland does so in some niches.

 

No, any problems Finnish industry has that aren't common to W. European nations are home-grown. Consider, for example, Nokia, that astounding success - until its management screwed it up. Nokia had the economies of scale that German mobile phone makers (e.g. Siemens) never managed to achieve. Its decline in mobile telephony has been a drag on the Finnish economy recently, just as its growth boosted Finland for years, & that decline has been entirely due to making the wrong decisions on what to make & who to co-operate with. Teaming with Microsoft was suicidal, & Nokia's been totally shafted.

 

As for out-competing countries within the Euro zone, I'll tell you a story from 1979. I had a temporary post-school job in the QC lab of a soft drink bottling plant. The bottling line was German made. I asked the head of production why they'd bought German. Were they cheaper than British manufacturers (which existed then, & I knew it)? "No", he said. The German machinery was much more expensive - & no wonder, with German wages, which were much higher then than in the UK. But the German line was far more reliable, & when it did need repair, the Germans would fly in whoever was needed, on weekends, public holidays, whatever, & fix it damn quick. Their British competitors would send someone eventually, but it'd take much longer, not least because their support staff were constantly busy, while the Germans always had someone free who could be sent straight away. The reliability & service meant that production interruptions were very rare, & very short, & that meant that even at twice the price of British machines (& the difference wasn't that much), it would be better value. Losing production cost more than paying more for machines & service.

 

He said they'd looked at Japanese machinery, which was also very good & cheaper than German, but they didn't have service engineers in Europe back then, so response time was longer.

 

See?