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Kiev Is Burning


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10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

He means Ukrainians. I know, I found it confusing as well, I thought he meant the British Army.

Well that would be silly.  There's lots more guys than that in the whole British Army, at least seven or eight hundred people!  And I'm pretty sure they still have at least one tank!

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34 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Seriously? Kill a few million people and pollute the whole world with the fall out is winning?

He is talking about the Russians starting a nuclear war, because America is more vulnerable. I wouldnt call using nuclear weapons on Russia winning in any sense, but if there remains a possiblity of losing more, they undoubtedly would. Their command and control systems are a mess, their nuclear delivery systems are unconvincing. For these reasons, I could seem them threatening the use of nuclear weapons, perhaps even doing an open air test. Going against American first? I dont think even Zhirinovsky is that nuts.

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16 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

When the US buys more crude from Russia than Mexico, does it really want to sanction their supplier? I guess it's worth it.

Europe can voluntarily cut Russian gas consumption and show Putin they don't need him. 

Poland and Estonia will provide replacement supply from their stocks. 

It's beyond farcical and 400 dollar oil will be quite amusing for awhile. 

russia tried to energy blackmail us back in 1994. 

now estonia has about 50000 households left that are only  gas-heating dependent,  87% of gas-burning powerplant capacity has alternative fuel capability (shale oil gas), most local heating comes from chipped wood etc. 

at 400 dollar per oil barrel our shale oil/gas production would make us quite rich, we have shale for 30-40 years left iirc. and the point of profitability is around 45USD barrel 

 maybe we even really could provide some replacement of russian gas, i dunno

Edited by bd1
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31 minutes ago, bd1 said:

mid-90´-russian-like

Yeltsin-like then. If supported by the Globalists, then perhaps Putin may be justified to effect a regime change, reversing the Maidan.

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Ukraine was suitably nebulous up to the Yanukoych presidency. It was a handy buffer state, which was being plundered mercilessly to fund mansions in London and DC. The revolutions were not about civil reform but to jockey for position between the oligarchs. The fever dreams of the Obamistas, fuelled by the success of the Arab Spring (the following failure not yet quite apparent) sent Victoria Nuland and Joe Biden to Kiev. Both have since found great success as puppets of the USian oligarch class and brought Ukraine to USia.

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No, Russia's strongarm tactics towards Ukraine started a good decade earlier than that. Look at the Orange Revolution. Look at Yushenko's Dioxin poisoning for the start point.

What was the trigger point for Putin's fear of NATO? I think he recognised it was a useful tool to remain in power. Sucking up to the west didnt generate enough money, or enough attention for the self adulatory prick. So he made it an enemy instead. Looked at like that, Ukraine is currently suffering from small man syndrome.

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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-president-claims-coup-attempt-against-him-imminent-as-russian-tensions-grow/ar-AAR9X8G?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he has received information about a possible attempt to stage a coup against him as early as next week.

Zelenskiy told a press conference that the coup could take place at the beginning of the December.

He did not accuse Russia of involvement in the coup attempt but spoke of a wider threat of military escalation from Moscow.

“We have challenges not only from the Russian Federation and possible escalation - we have big internal challenges. I received information that a coup d’etat will take place in our country on Dec. 1-2,” Zelenskiy said.

Russia has been building up forces near its border with Ukraine, and Kyiv, the United States and NATO have voiced concerns about a possible attack - a suggestion the Kremlin has dismissed.

Tensions are growing between the two countries, raising fears that a long-running conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists could erupt into renewed open warfare.

“We are in full control of our borders and are fully prepared for any escalation,” Zelenskiy said.

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2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Excellent example of Western journalism – the author managed to avoid mentioning of key persons involved: Ukraine’s richest man oligarch Akhmetov (right)  and his long-time rival (and “owner” of President Zelensky) oligarch Kolomoysky (left).

https://s.mind.ua/img/forall/a/202108/83.jpg?1589403668

Below is Yandex-translation of yesterday’s post by one of pro-Russian bloggers who actually predicted this affair (source https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7246807.html)

The threat of "martial law"

Lyashko, who is sitting on Akhmetov's payroll, said that Zelensky and his entourage plan to pass through the NSDC (National Security and Defense Council – RA) a decision on the introduction of martial law from December 1, 2021 for a period until February 1, 2022. Taking into account what kind of decisions and in what form were carried out earlier through the NSDC, there are no obstacles for such a step, which actually copies Poroshenko's tactics of the end of 2018, when, speculating on the topic of provocation in the Kerch Strait with a "Wolf Pack", Poroshenko tried to impose martial law (and also for two months) in order to use this to solve his domestic political problems, namely, to achieve the postponement or cancellation of presidential elections. Then he didn't succeed with it. But this, of course, does not guarantee that Zelensky will not try to pull off such a scam either.

Why does Zelensky and his entourage need martial law? Of course, not to "repel Russian aggression." Using martial law, it is possible to strike at Akhmetov by closing Akhmetov's media for the duration of martial law, which are now working non-stop 24/7 for a further collapse of Zelensky's  and "Servants of the People" party rating as well as for Razumkov's promotion as a "reasonable alternative to Zelensky". (game of words here  - “Razumkov” literally means something like “reasonable” – RA)

As it is easy to see, now in Ukraine there is an increase in the collaboration of various oligarchic forces against Kolomoisky and Zelensky. Seeing Zelensky's growing weakness, he is being attacked quite openly on those channels that do not belong to Kolomoisky and Zelensky's entourage. After Medvedchuk's channels were closed, Akhmetov became the main skirmisher, collecting "fugitives" from the "Servant of the People", "deceived Gordons", characters associated with Poroshenko and other disgruntled oligarchs, etc. on the airwaves.

 

At the same time, it is easy to notice the continuing pressure on Zelensky from the West, from where an invoice is also pouring on him, accusing him of offshore fraud and "zrad" in the Wagnerheit case. This invoice is replicated inside Ukraine, simultaneously focusing on the fact that Zelensky does not have the unconditional support of the United States. And in Ukraine it is very important. You can even have minimal internal legitimacy, but as long as you have Washington's support, you don't have to worry – your opponents won't dare to overthrow you. But if the falling internal rating is supplemented by the dissatisfaction of the external control circuit, then this is an eloquent signal that "the object is available for attack."

Therefore, the "disappointed" continue to be publicly "get disappointed" with the help of Akhmetov, the compromising material on Zelensky and Kolomoisky leaked from the West takes the form of "independent journalistic investigations", and social networks are flooded with anti-"green" propaganda (game of words, Zelensky is sort of “green” – RA). Coupled with unfulfilled promises and deception of his electorate, this leads to a natural decrease in both Zelensky's rating and the rating of "Servant of the People".

It has already reached the ridiculous point when, according to Ukrainian opinion polls, Razumkov, who recently ran away from Zelensky, can already defeat Zelensky in the presidential election. This, of course, does not mean that Razumkov is something significant (in fact, he is the same oligarchic parsley as Zelensky), they just have already been disappointed in Zelensky, but not in Razumkov yet.

 

And so, Zelensky's entourage sees how opponents are working more and more closely on the task of changing the current puppet administration with the tacit connivance of the external circuit. What to do? Go to the media and discuss? But there is nothing banal to show. Their channels are not influential enough to flood the heads of "wise Ukrainians" with their propaganda. The West, despite formal words of support, continues to "feed ammunition of compromising material" to Zelensky's internal opponents. In view of this, Zelensky, in fact, has no other options other than the path of administrative and forceful suppression of opponents, since he cannot even rely on his own party to the end and the majority in the Verkhovna Rada has already become fictitious.

 

Martial law under the sauce of the "war with Russia" (which is now being promoted in the Ukrainian and foreign media) can give Zelensky and Kolomoisky a respite from information pressure inside Ukraine, somehow influence Zelensky's problems with the Biden administration and weaken Akhmetov in order to force him to make concessions. So the reasons for the introduction of martial law, if it is introduced, of course, internal.

 

Lyashko, as a media "asset" (although, maybe, a "liability") Akhmetov, is used as a drain tank to play a proactive role and force Zelensky to either announce his plans ahead of time, which will make it possible to wet him with information for almost a whole week, or force him to back down, saying that, they say, "nothing was planned, but Lyashko is breaching," which will actually lower Zelensky's entourage to the level of disputes with Lyashko. As a result, the topic of martial law has already been speculatively introduced into the political agenda, which, taking into account the recent past and Poroshenko's identical attempts, already strikes Zelensky in itself, since in this matter he begins to look like a complete epigon of Poroshenko, the differences from which are more and more minimal every month.

 

Of course, one should not delude oneself that all this will somehow lead to the loss of control over Ukraine by the United States. From Washington's point of view, the change of power in Kiev should take place as a replacement of one puppet administration for another. And if the enemies of Kolomoisky and Zelensky can convince the Biden administration that they will do Zelensky's work better and more effectively, then, of course, the White House and the State Department will easily turn a blind eye to the further weakening and inevitable collapse of Zelensky - whether as a result of the "new Maidan" or during the banal loss in the next election with the breaking of Yushchenko's anti-record.

 

If the actions of Akhmetov's money bunching around begin to threaten the fundamentals of the American course in Ukraine (at least in the form of multiplying chaos in the process of weakening Zelensky), then Akhmetov may have real problems. Therefore, all the attacks on Zelensky were, are and will be with an eye to what they will say in Washington, so as not to run behind the red flags. Zelensky's entourage, of course, will be interested in presenting the case in such a way that the actions of Akhmetov and Co. pose a threat to the long-term interests of the United States, therefore it is necessary to impose martial law, close/select Akhmetov's channels, impose sanctions against particularly zealous "critics" and "disillusioned" and strengthen Zelensky's position as the main and only conductor of American interests.

Of course, all this should be under the sauce of the "fight against Russia", so that everyone who criticizes Zelensky and his art can be called direct and indirect accomplices of the Kremlin and Putin. The main thing here is to have time to hang the label first before it is hung on Zelensky himself, especially since media steps in this direction are already being taken ("Wagnerheit", "patriots jailed", etc.).

To make the picture convincing, new provocations will most likely be required in the Donbas or in the Black Sea, possibly with bloodletting, so that, under the guise of the "Russian threat" and under the guise of martial law, it would be possible to achieve stabilization of the internal political situation in Ukraine, simultaneously flooding Razumkov, who, with the support of Akhmetov, is becoming more and more dangerous.

As a result, Ukraine continues to use the war and bloodletting in the Donbas as a tool for correcting domestic policy, and, of course, they are not going to abandon it.

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7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, Russia's strongarm tactics towards Ukraine started a good decade earlier than that. Look at the Orange Revolution. Look at Yushenko's Dioxin poisoning for the start point.

I wonder for how long you will use this fake story that even pro-Ukrainians do not claim it anymore? Back in 2019 the chief military prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoly Matios said that the prosecutor who investigated the poisoning of the third President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko found no evidence of a crime. (Source  https://gordonua.com/news/politics/otravleniya-yushchenko-ne-bylo-matios-1153980.html )

So your proposed starting point is fake.

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On 11/24/2021 at 6:00 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

If the Ukrainians were going to implode, they would have done it in 2014. Despite the continual narrative, year on year, from Roman and others of the 'Ukraine is going to collapse' narrative, its still there. Despite problems, despite issues, they endure year after year of Russian occupation. Their army is stronger than 2014, and now they are getting new kit. By contrast, Russia is not able to procure the high tech stuff it feels it needs, and its defence budget is dipping. And year on year, Putin becomes more and more unpopular, and the DNR seems to prove wholly unable to stand on its own feet without massive Russian support.

Do I know that Ukraine is going to wait Russia out? No. But I think from putin's position, he would be a complete fool not to believe it. Despite all he has done, they drift closer and closer to NATO and Europe, and his means of doing something about it are starting to drift. For him, panic must be starting to set in.

The Europeans may not care about Ukraine. I do think that Poland having another Russian border, dominating the Baltic states, and possibly becoming economically stronger and more dominant of the Baltic states SHOULD focus minds.

 

 

It is interesting how discussion on This Great Topic is going in circles…. Let me quote my old post from December 2017 that was allready retype from earlier cycle of discussion – and note that in four years nothing have improved for Ukraine  

 

Currently “Ukrainians” are increasingly finding they are better off when out of Ukraine – as economic migrants in Russia or EU (especially Slavic countries like Poland etc). To avoid retyping the same let me quote from my previous post http://www.tank-net.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=38893&p=1337599

“If it was corrupt at Roman asserts it would have collapsed like a pack of cards in 2014” – let me quote Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Georgian president who went on to become a leading Ukrainian politician, has warned Ukraine "will continue to break up" unless the government improves the economy and reins in the scourge of corruption that has blighted the country since independence. ( http://www.telegraph...on-saakashvili/ )

So Ukraine actually have collapsed and continue to fall (what else is twofold drop of GDP if not collapse?) and is now Europe’s poorest country (https://112.internat...egion-1206.html ) with prospects even worse as another tour of natural gas and electricity prices rise for population expected next year. Here is more reading for you on this (in English) https://112.international/article/four-after-maidan-what-happened-to-the-ukrainian-economy-22917.html “Four years after Maidan: What happened to the Ukrainian economy”

But one thing you are right: looking back, it would be good development for Ukraine to receive US armament in 2014. It will require stronger involvement from Russia (including, possibly, official military help to Novorossia or even direct use of Rus Army) and by now all this mess would be over. Now, after four years (and 25 years of "independence") significant part of Ukraine (actually, USSR) industry is irreversibly lost as plants gone, qualified workers became work migrants etc – and even if tomorrow Novorossia tanks roll through Kiev, it will take decades to restore Ukraine even up to pre-Maidan level (far below Russian one, and Russia is surely not the wealthiest place). Nobody even know how many people left in Ukraine to support 13 mln of pensioneers there...

 

 

Edited by Roman Alymov
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23 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, I think thats nonsense. Because we have a counterstrike doctrine, and for the Russians there is no real value in doing anything other than counterstrike either. Oh, Russia might beat its chest about Countervalue strikes, but if it ever did, it would witness historic cities like St Petersburg or Volgograd being wiped off the map, even if Moscow survived.

Looks to me like Putin's patience with Washington on Ukraine has snapped.  If this is so, then the US's best move is to fold and walk away from the table.  Expanding NATO into Ukraine was always a stupid bet, they should have never even thought about doing it.

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10 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Looks to me like Putin's patience with Washington on Ukraine has snapped.  If this is so, then the US's best move is to fold and walk away from the table.  Expanding NATO into Ukraine was always a stupid bet, they should have never even thought about doing it.

Declining Empire can’t afford to step back  - there are too many places around the globe where their presence is kept only on fear of their might, and if there is no more might – how they are going to stop their enemies? Too many enemies…. One Ukrainian commenter named US “Global policeman on  retirement”.

And UK is de-facto blackmailing US by creating conflicts that US would have to intervene, giving UK back their fpormer role of US ally№1 (now officially granted to Germany).

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3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Declining Empire can’t afford to step back  - there are too many places around the globe where their presence is kept only on fear of their might, and if there is no more might – how they are going to stop their enemies? Too many enemies…. One Ukrainian commenter named US “Global policeman on  retirement”.

American globalism was always a bit of a Washington hobby horse, so yes, they can afford to step back.  

Quote

And UK is de-facto blackmailing US by creating conflicts that US would have to intervene, giving UK back their fpormer role of US ally№1 (now officially granted to Germany).

Biden sent the UK a message in Kabul about that business.  The Americans did nothing while the Argis plugged half a dozen ships off the Falklands in 1982, so I would think that the British should think long and hard before they assume that they can wag the dog in Washington in 2021.

 

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9 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

American globalism was always a bit of a Washington hobby horse, so yes, they can afford to step back.  

Not any more. USD status of global reserve currency is the key to US ability to solve internal problems by endless quantitative easing, and this status is dependent on USA position of planet-dominating military power.

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50 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Not any more. USD status of global reserve currency is the key to US ability to solve internal problems by endless quantitative easing, and this status is dependent on USA position of planet-dominating military power.

IMO, the US status as global currency reserve has little or nothing to do with the strength of the American greenback.  If the US packed up and went home from everywhere tomorrow, the dollar would still be the world's go-to currency.

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13 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

IMO, the US status as global currency reserve has little or nothing to do with the strength of the American greenback.  If the US packed up and went home from everywhere tomorrow, the dollar would still be the world's go-to currency.

Only if you consider it as coincidence that USD got global reserve status when USA became dominant power on the non-socialist part of the globe :) Anyway, we will see if live long enough.

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1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

It's interesting how the discussion about this big topic turns in circles…. Let me quote my old post from December 2017, which comes from an earlier cycle of discussions - and note that nothing has improved for Ukraine in four years

Is that amazing? After all, the Kremlin is unwilling to grant Ukraine full political sovereignty. In addition, the Kremlin is only willing to negotiate peace with other states on one condition. And this prerequisite is: Ukraine, as part of the Russian world, is not a sovereign state.

And the successes or failures of the Ukrainian government are a matter for the Ukrainians. Not the Kremlin.

Edited by Stefan Kotsch
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Just now, Stefan Kotsch said:

Is that amazing? After all, the Kremlin is not willing to grant Ukraine full political sovereignty. Furthermore, the Kremlin is only prepared to negotiate peace with other states on one condition. And this requirement is as follows: Ukraine, as part of the Russian world, is not a sovereign state.

So it is Kremlin who push every new Ukraine President into looting own country? :) See latest Panama papers - President Zelensky, as well as President Poroshenko, was stealing from his own budjet while pretending they are at war with Russia :)

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And back to Kiev news:  

KIEV, November 26. /tass/. Ukrainian businessman Rinat Akhmetov called a lie the statement of President Vladimir Zelensky about involving him in alleged plans for a coup in Ukraine. This was announced on Friday by the press service of the company "System Capital Management" (SCM), which was founded by a businessman.
"The information made public by Vladimir Zelensky about allegedly dragging me into some kind of coup is a complete lie. I am outraged by the spread of this lie, regardless of what motives the president is guided by," Akhmetov said.
According to the businessman, he will continue to "defend democracy, economy and freedom of speech in Ukraine as a citizen of Ukraine, the largest investor, taxpayer and employer of the country." "And I will do everything in my power so that there is no authoritarianism and censorship in Ukraine," Akhmetov assured.
Earlier on Friday, at a press marathon, Zelensky said that "on tapes" some people from Ukraine and Russia discussed the implementation of a coup in the country with the alleged participation of Akhmetov, $ 1 billion will be raised for this. At the same time, the head of state said that he did not believe in Akhmetov's participation in the conspiracy, and suggested that they were trying to drag the businessman into a war against the authorities.

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