Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

7 minutes ago, Rick said:

Thank you for your reply. Does "RF" mean Russian Federation?

I think your last sentence explains much.

Yes RF is Russian Federation 

[Stefan Kotsch]

Why should the West will be devided Western Ukraine in some form between Poland and Hungary after Russia's tanks have invaded, coming from the East?

Is there a "secret additional protocol" that we do not yet know?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Legend has it that Putin hinted Poland could take former territories back from Ukraine in 2014. 

https://www.novinite.com/articles/164220/Russia+'Offered+Poland+Part+of+Ukraine'+-+Former+FM

Russia has sought to involve Poland in the partition of Ukraine, former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told a US media outlet.

"This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, [soon to be President of the European Council] when he visited Moscow. He went on to say Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lwow is a Polish city and why don’t we just sort it out together," Politico magazine quotes him as saying.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has however dismissed claims of Sikorski as "sheer red herring".

 

it's all so very 1939.

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Why should the West will be devided Western Ukraine in some form between Poland and Hungary after Russia's tanks have invaded, coming from the East?

Is there a "secret additional protocol" that we do not yet know?

 

Have I said “West should”? I think I was quite clear in indicating the scenario of Russia openly stepping in Ukraine is, unfortunatelly, higly UNliikely since our rulling elite is too greedy and pro-Western for that. But if it really happens  - then it is not difficult to predict scenaruios for Western Ukraine: Hungary is allready accused by official Ukraine of supporting ethnic Hungarian separatism

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-hungary-ukraine-dispute-idUKKBN28A2ZZ

Hungary summons Ukrainian ambassador over raids on ethnic Hungarian organization

Polish activity in Western Ukraine is also quite known, with number of “Ethnic Pole card” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karta_Polaka) believed to be in hundreds of thousands

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

10 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Russia has sought ...

Hm. Not the West.

@Roman

Ok, but Hungary and Poland are not THE WEST. You cannot single-handedly divide Ukraine.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Stefan Kotsch

[urbanoid]

12 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Polish activity in Western Ukraine is also quite known, with number of “Ethnic Pole card” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karta_Polaka) believed to be in hundreds of thousands

It wasn't directed just to 'Western Ukrainians', but to all other 'post-Soviet' citizens as well. That is until 2019, when it became eligible to everyone.

[Stefan Kotsch]

One should also look at the matter with a sense of humor:

Quote

Patriarch Kirill calls Russia the leader of the free world

https://ria.ru/20211120/kirill-1759943792.html

If you look at the free states led by the Kremlin, you know what will happen in Ukraine after liberation. 

[ex2cav]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

There seems to be a lot of talk about how the Russians are a "go", but I am surprised there hasn't been any sat intelligence showing Russian units moving into staging/assembly areas. There have been pics on this site of car parks full of equipment, but they are stacked and lined up, not at all in deployment disposition.

With the increase in tension in the area, it makes sense both sides are seeing the other behind every tree. I haven't seen the Russians move towards the border yet....Have they?

[Stefan Kotsch]

To show such pictures means to reveal one's own possibilities for reconnaissance. A possible thought.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oh there are satellite photos of deployment areas, I've just not posted any.

Cu

Current assessment on some newspapers is January. I'm not sure what they are basing that on, but lots more kit to come if they do.

 

[ex2cav]

Again, lined up for strafing/bombing/missile targets.  How far is this from the border? At some point they have to move to a jump off point. 

As to "revealing recon capabilities", there is plenty of open source material/satellite photography out there. If they really were prepping for a ground assault, by laying out  deployments that could deter them. 

Are the Ukies deploying? If the Russians are getting ready to move it would be in their interest to cover likely axis of advance. Or are they not deploying? Are they planning to re do 2014 and remain in barracks until the Russians are deep in territory? Or are they not taking it seriously?

It seems the Russians do this on occasion to teach their army large scale troop deployments and to ramp up tensions. They could be doing a chicken little, and are waiting til no one notices and then go. Methinks the equipment sitting in car parks is a flag to nato that they are not really serious....this time. 

Again for me, I don't believe the war is over. Are they going to move now? Who knows?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[ex2cav]

34 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Oh there are satellite photos of deployment areas, I've just not posted any.

Cu

Current assessment on some newspapers is January. I'm not sure what they are basing that on, but lots more kit to come if they do. 

 

Yeah, I saw that pic too. A report indicates it is in the vicinity of Yelna, Russia. Which is 100 or so miles from Ukraine and closer to the eastern border of Belarussia. Pogovo is opposite Ukraine, again 100miles away. Moslovka is right on the Ukie border. I don't have a twitter account so I can't see what is there. 

As to the January timeline, I don't know how they could expect that as you noted. Everyone is just beating the drums of war. Or being led around be the nose. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Beware of confirmation bias. It's precisely why Putin keeps turning out the army in the border of Ukraine. One day it won't be a snow job.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Stuart Galbraith

[ex2cav]

My point about chicken little.

[wilhelm]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Beware of confirmation bias. 

This has got to be THE most hilarious, hypocritical, dishonest double-speak in the history of the forum.

[Ssnake]

4 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Again, lined up for strafing/bombing/missile targets.

Strafing/bombing/missile targeting by whom?

Do you expect NATO to attack?

Or the Ukrainian air force, to deliver the legitimacy for a Russian invasion?

 

4 hours ago, ex2cav said:

At some point they have to move to a jump off point.

Sure, but apparently we're not at that point yet. But once that they do move out, there'll be very little time left to react. A serious analysis focuses on capabilities, not mind reading. With the current build-up, Russia develops the capacity for aggressive action on very short notice. In hindsight, some - and I suspect it'll be the same who currently claim that all talk about an impending Russian invasion is paranoid, warmongering and escalatory talk - will then ask "why did nobody see it coming, they started building up the invasion force in spring 2021 already?"

🙄

[Simon Tan]

I have actually had some time on a Javelin simulator. It's not so easy and requires drilling to be effective. The biggest probalem is the short time you have to lock it up before the cooling unit conks out. In contrast, Kornet is actually simpler to to train on. 

[Simon Tan]

The Russians do not need to invade. They achieve their goals simply by being able to counter any Ukrainian concentrations. It's very Marlburian. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, wilhelm said:

This has got to be THE most hilarious, hypocritical, dishonest double-speak in the history of the forum.

Ah, I see the Internet Research Agency is hiring again.

[Stuart Galbraith]

5 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

I have actually had some time on a Javelin simulator. It's not so easy and requires drilling to be effective. The biggest probalem is the short time you have to lock it up before the cooling unit conks out. In contrast, Kornet is actually simpler to to train on. 

It probably is, but its still going to suffer higher user attrition through having a SACLOS system. And its an open question whether Kornet is still effective against Ukrainian forms of APS anyway.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, Ssnake said:

Strafing/bombing/missile targeting by whom?

Do you expect NATO to attack?

Or the Ukrainian air force, to deliver the legitimacy for a Russian invasion?

 

Sure, but apparently we're not at that point yet. But once that they do move out, there'll be very little time left to react. A serious analysis focuses on capabilities, not mind reading. With the current build-up, Russia develops the capacity for aggressive action on very short notice. In hindsight, some - and I suspect it'll be the same who currently claim that all talk about an impending Russian invasion is paranoid, warmongering and escalatory talk - will then ask "why did nobody see it coming, they started building up the invasion force in spring 2021 already?"

🙄

I believe they will either blame it on Joe Biden and the Democrats, or they will pretend that the Ukrainians asked for it, and besides they were all Nazi's anyway. People unthinkingly keep repeating Kremlin Propaganda to a degree that I find truly terrifying. There is probably even a couple of helpers on this grate site.

You are quite right of course, lining up is absolutely no problem. They know nobody is going to go in at them first. Which proves the lie that this is all because they are paranoid about NATO moving against their borders. Im truly amazed that people still go for that narrative, they have been banging on about it for the past 30 years.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

I thought this was interesting.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0061a68-82be-415c-bf33-b2f4c6bd2496

In July, Putin published a 5,000-word article, apparently based on his own historical research in which he wrote that he was “convinced that the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia” and vowed Moscow would never allow the country to become “anti-Russia”.

“In Putin’s understanding, the people of Ukraine are basically one with Russians, so they should support integration with Russia. But since the country is under the thumb of the west the people are being tricked — they’re hostage to geopolitical games,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political consultancy R. Politik. “If the Americans left, it’d be a unified state . . . and everything would be great. Or so Putin thinks.”

The article sparked concerns in Ukraine that Putin — who has avoided requests to meet his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and visibly lost interest in the Ukrainian peace process — had grander designs on the country.

“Putin has a sense of mission on reinstalling a new kind of empire. It’s sitting very deep in his mind. Not just Ukraine’s success, but also any separate path of Ukraine would be highly damaging to the Russian mythology,” said Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s former foreign minister.

Klimkin, who was born in Kursk, Russia, added: “The narrative in Russia is that there is no Ukrainian identity as such, including history, language, mentality and statehood. Putin’s stance on Ukraine is highly irrational. Ukrainians and Russians have two different sets of values.”

Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Russia had neglected to study Ukraine’s changing society over the years in favour of dealing directly with its oligarchical elites, many of whom had close business ties to Moscow until 2014. That blinkered attitude led the Kremlin to write off surges in pro-western sentiment, such as the 2004 Orange revolution and the Euromaidan protests a decade later, as manipulation by foreign powers rather than reflective of broader changes in Ukrainian society, Trenin said.

The war had accelerated those social changes to the point where “separate Ukrainian statehood is incompatible with any meaningful integration with Russia”, added Trenin.

 

Which probably means he was texting Alexander Dugin.

 

[seahawk]

If Putin takes back the Ukraine for Russia, he will become a Russian hero for generations. Imho it is a necessity for the safety of Russia to do it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

If Putin takes back the Ukraine for Russia, he will become a Russian hero for generations. Imho it is a necessity for the safety of Russia to do it.

And that, I think, is the best explanation of why he will try to do it. If not this time, then at some undetermined point in the future. Probably when Angela's phone calls finally convinces him the West is completely rotten.

 

If you look at any Russian history book and look up the maps from 1600 to 1914, you will see the map advancing West and South. Putin lived in the sole period in Russian history when that was thrown into reverse, permanently. Yeah I get it, its painful losing territories that were part of the state for hundreds of years. But this is no different from the pain Germans in the 20's and 30's were facing, and I dont think anyone accepted their defence that their actions to recover them were necessary.