Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-urged-to-expel-russian-diplomats-over-attack-carried-out-by-salisbury-suspects-in-czech-republic-12280419

The minister said it is thought the Czech depot was caught up in the attack by mistake because the real target had been a shipment of ammunition that was due to be transported to an arms dealer in Bulgaria - but the mission went wrong.

"As far as we know, it was not an attack against the Czech Republic as such," he said.

"The target was a load of ammunition that was already purchased and paid for by a Bulgarian arms dealer and we think that the plan was not to detonate it in the Czech Republic but the plan was to detonate it on the way to Bulgaria and simply something went wrong on their side."

As for why the ammunition was of interest to the GRU, Mr Hamacek shared some theories.

"We have two lines of thought. Basically what we think is that this ammunition was to be used somewhere against Russian interests so we suspect Ukraine or Syria," he said.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[ex2cav]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Which is just too much like saying a woman was raped for wearing provocative clothing.

If Putin wanted to control who NATO has a relationship with, he should have joined.

I think that was floated in the early 2000's.....

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Then Russia will likely lose satellites in return, at least if it engages US satellites. I agree with previous posts; it isn't possible redirect LEO satellites and historically airspace has always been accepted as ending at the 100km altitude. There is no justification for shooting them down and there would be retaliation for doing so.

 

Well, so that gives the Russians two choices.  Don't shoot the satellites down and the  see thousands of Russian soldiers killed and wounded by the targeting information they provide, or shoot them down and let NATO worry about what their answer shall be.  Which begs the question what sort of retaliation could NATO window shop for that the Russians would prefer less than avoiding thousands of KIA and WIA on the battlefield?

Let's hope Ukraine does not attack the Donbass Pocket, so that we are less likely to find out whether you are right or wrong.  

 

 

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

The Ukraine/Syria comparison is ill advised, for reasons posted here already - Syria was a side show; the Ukraine and Belaruse is a core Russian interest. .

It is precisely because of that reason why Trump put Ukraine on ice.  Trump had the brains to understand where he could be assertive and where he could not.  Democrats seem unable to understand the concept that Ukraine is a place where the Russians can take military measures and the US will be placed in the unenviable position of backing down or making an insane, completely irrational, escalation.   

 

Quote

You seem to think that Biden bad mouthing Putin started all of this; I'll note that none of the Russian contingent here - in fact none of the posters besides yourself - seems to think that is the case

Diplomacy can be a very sensitive games left to the experts.  So, I imagine that many US diplomatic experts were cringing at what Biden said as a stupid thing to do.  What did Biden think he was gaining for US interests and security by calling Putin a killer?   

For the record, I don't think that Biden's stupid comments are what are causing this, I think all they're doing was to confirm in Putin's mind that a more forceful approach is correct.  What I think might have happened is that the Russians have gained more intel on what Biden's policy with Ukraine actually is, and have concluded that because of this war with Ukraine is almost inevitable.

I see on the news today that the EU is estimating the Russian troop buildup to be 150,000 strong.  If this is actually so, then this is beyond the level required to deter a Ukrainian attack on the Donbass.

Edited April 19, 2021 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

I think that was floated in the early 2000's.....

Putin actually inquired about joining. He lost interest when he found out he would have to actively apply. I guess he believed his own propaganda that NATO actively was seeking to expand...

Someone estimated the amount of deadlift now present in the Black Sea..

 

[ex2cav]

Looking at it from Russia's perspective they are in a degrading position. Ukraine is drifting into the western sphere, all the Russian subterfuge and influence of "Russian speakers" in Ukraine amounting to little except increased tension.

In 2014 Ukraine's military was barely able to roll out of barracks. Today it is better with western help. That will only increase as time passes. I think Russia knows they can't win an arms race with NATO. If things cool now, they know there will be an influx of western material to the Ukie army, airforce etc. Zelensky will push this to help facilitate the interoperability Nato membership requires. 

The Crimea needs water from the river to the north to survive. The Ukies control access to that canal. Russia built a bridge to connect the Crimea to Russia, but to me that looks like a ripe piglet to a wolf. It is vulnerable, as is the water supply. 

Russia's position is degrading both politically and militarily. Waiting for them will only make it harder later. 

 

[bojan]

"122mm mortars"

Quality source.

[KV7]

20 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

 

Well, so that gives the Russians two choices.  Don't shoot the satellites down and the  see thousands of Russian soldiers killed and wounded by the targeting information they provide, or shoot them down and let NATO worry about what their answer shall be.  Which begs the question what sort of retaliation could NATO window shop for that the Russians would prefer less than avoiding thousands of KIA and WIA on the battlefield?

Let's hope Ukraine does not attack the Donbass Pocket, so that we are less likely to find out whether you are right or wrong. 

Satellites providing targeting information is nice but they are not enough to magically give thousands of extra casualties on the other side, if the other assets are not there. 

The only thing Ukraine has that might be a threat to the Russian rear is some SRBM. But a few dozen SRBM lobbed at Russian camps isn't a good reason to start downing US satellites. Ukraine cannot do tactical bombing and artillery duels would be resolved quickly and with a bloody loss given to Ukrainian artillery.

 

[seahawk]

Aggressive action by the Ukraine:

 

 

[Josh]

40 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

 

Well, so that gives the Russians two choices.  Don't shoot the satellites down and the  see thousands of Russian soldiers killed and wounded by the targeting information they provide, or shoot them down and let NATO worry about what their answer shall be.  Which begs the question what sort of retaliation could NATO window shop for that the Russians would prefer less than avoiding thousands of KIA and WIA on the battlefield?

Let's hope Ukraine does not attack the Donbass Pocket, so that we are less likely to find out whether you are right or wrong.  

 

 

I think you rather overstate the tactical utility and timely processing of strategic recon satellites. The Russians will not need to engage them, and it isn't clear that the US will provide that intel or even could provide it in any kind of timely fashion. The US has done some early experiments with fast forwarding satellite data to front line troops, but even the US Army is only at the early stages of testing the theory and process of such a practice and it is using much longer ranged weapons to take advantage of that info than the Ukraine possess (google 'Convergence' exercise). US and commercial satellite images likely will only indicate just how fucked the Ukrainians are after the fact rather than lead to thousands of preventable Russian deaths.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Josh

[wilhelm]

Britain must be currently experiencing a shortage of vacuum cleaners, considering the prolific output here of the "Slav Whisperer".

One wonders what his boss thinks..

 

[wilhelm]

25 minutes ago, bojan said:

"122mm mortars"

Quality source.

Only the best.

Earlier, it was: "Look! Twitter showing a fuel truck on the move! In Donetsk!"

Edited April 19, 2021 by wilhelm

[Josh]

34 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

It is precisely because of that reason why Trump put Ukraine on ice.  Trump had the brains to understand where he could be assertive and where he could not.  Democrats seem unable to understand the concept that Ukraine is a place where the Russians can take military measures and the US will be placed in the unenviable position of backing down or making an insane, completely irrational, escalation.   

 

Diplomacy can be a very sensitive games left to the experts.  So, I imagine that many US diplomatic experts were cringing at what Biden said as a stupid thing to do.  What did Biden think he was gaining for US interests and security by calling Putin a killer?   

For the record, I don't think that Biden's stupid comments are what are causing this, I think all they're doing was to confirm in Putin's mind that a more forceful approach is correct.  What I think might have happened is that the Russians have gained more intel on what Biden's policy with Ukraine actually is, and have concluded that because of this war with Ukraine is almost inevitable.

I see on the news today that the EU is estimating the Russian troop buildup to be 150,000 strong.  If this is actually so, then this is beyond the level required to deter a Ukrainian attack on the Donbass.

I simply don't think the US Administration enters into any of Putin's calculations. I doubt Putin is concerned with Biden's opinion one way or the other, for the same reasons you state: there is nothing the US could do to stop Russia from invading.

[KV7]

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

I think you rather overstate the tactical utility and timely processing of strategic recon satellites. The Russians will not need to engage them, and it isn't clear that the US will provide that intel or even could provide it in any kind of timely fashion. The US has done some early experiments with fast forwarding satellite data to front line troops, but even the US Army is only at the early stages of testing the theory and process of such a practice and it is using much longer ranged weapons to take advantage of that info than the Ukraine possess (google 'Convergence' exercise). US and commercial satellite images likely will only indicate just how fucked the Ukrainians are after the fact rather than lead to thousands of preventable Russian deaths.

Exactly. They are more useful for locating large concentrations in the rear, fuel depots, less mobile air defense assets etc. which might be targeted by aviation or SRBM or long range MLRS.  But Ukraine would struggle to pull of such attacks I think, beyond those with SRBM.

[seahawk]

More proof of the Ukrainians preparing for an attack

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/ukraine/video-2399752/Video-Ukrainian-military-convoy-transport-tanks-amid-tensions-Russia.html

Ukrainian president threatening to attack Russia with NATO help

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/ukraine-warns-it-could-be-provoked-as-russian-troops-loom-on-border-amid-fears-of-allout-war/news-story/f35bfb6514d485cab5f4a0d645fbe110

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, right. That after being outnumbered 2 or 3 to one?

[Josh]

30 minutes ago, seahawk said:

More proof of the Ukrainians preparing for an attack a Russian attack.

 

Fixed it for you.

[seahawk]

27 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yeah, right. That after being outnumbered 2 or 3 to one?

If they believe NATO will do the dirty work...

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well clearly they dont, or they would already have done it.

[Stefan Kotsch]

For me, this great game of confusion has only one background.  The KGB lads in the Kremlin are quite simply and honestly and wholeheartedly convinced that the Ukrainians are not a independent people and that Ukraine is an illegal construction and it is unworthy to have one's own sovereignty. Ukraine is Russian colonial area of interest!

And the Russians are right with that.  Anyone who acts in Russian very own colonial  territory without the permission of the Kremlin is a threat to Russia. Foreign policy can be that simple.

(you can only shake your head)

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

I don't know how much credence to give this. This is reportedly Vitebsk today.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

For me, this great game of confusion has only one background.  The KGB lads in the Kremlin are quite simply and honestly and wholeheartedly convinced that the Ukrainians are not a independent people and that Ukraine is an illegal construction and it is unworthy to have one's own sovereignty. Ukraine is Russian colonial area of interest!

And the Russians are right with that.  Anyone who acts in Russian very own colonial  territory without the permission of the Kremlin is a threat to Russia. Foreign policy can be that simple.

(you can only shake your head)

 

 

For a nation that fought wholeheartedly against Empires all round the world, they certainly didn't move far from Imperialism.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://illinoisnewstoday.com/biden-administration-reviews-nordstream2-gas-pipeline/159521/

Washington — According to people with deliberative knowledge, the Biden administration will bring Russian natural gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea under new pressure after the construction of the $ 11 billion project resumed this month. We are reviewing US policy on designed pipelines.

The undersea pipeline, Nord Stream 2, is over 90% complete, with about 100 miles remaining. Construction resumed in earnest on February 6, more than a year after construction stopped, in the face of opposition from the Trump administration and Congressional action to approve sanctions on companies and individuals involved in the project. It was. The Biden administration has so far not imposed the sanctions required by law.

Biden administration has started talks with Berlin The future of the pipelineGerman officials said it included “a threat of sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2.

The administration on Tuesday is facing a deadline to report a list of companies that it considers to be in breach of US law aimed at shutting down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. These companies will be potential targets for US sanctions. The Biden administration could also abandon sanctions under national interest clauses, crush Germany, a key European ally, bring geopolitical victories to Russia, and cross bipartisan coalitions in parliament.

 

 

And this is what I mean about things being impossible to predict. There are a half dozen issues going off right now, any one of which might set Putin off.