Roman Alymov Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) 1 hour ago, urbanoid said: Btw as of today the full scale war has lasted 1418 days, as long as the 'Great Patriotic War'. Pro-Rus take "Today, SVO duration has equaled that of the Great Patriotic War, a symbolic and difficult milestone. But if then the whole country was living on a frontline wave, from young to old, today there is an amazing gap. The war continues, regardless of whether everyone sees it. And every new day of this confrontation is another reminder that our reality has changed for a long time. Whether we fully realize it or not." https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/2398 Edited January 10 by Roman Alymov
Roman Alymov Posted January 10 Posted January 10 16 hours ago, urbanoid said: I believe his childhood and young adulthood might result in some insight. In what ways is his childhood and young adulthood in Donetsk, big Soviet industrial city, provided him with insights different from ones of any other Soveit boy from big industrial city (say, Leningrad)? Western and "liberal Russian" experts love to trace imaginate roots of "Putin's mental traumas" to his poor urban boy childhood, but for some reason this childhood id immediately forgotten when not matching the narative..... 16 hours ago, urbanoid said: He has his life here, started a family etc., I think when the war began for years he was simply sharing his thoughts on facebook, only recently some niche media asked him to contribute. So no, I don't see a monetary/status motivations for him to write what he does, since he has been doing the same for free for years. It is up to you, but from my point of view this type of nonsence is quite typical for people who left former USSR and is now trying to build new life in other places - especially for those who are not extraordinarly successful in that. This type of people are present on next to every Rus-language chatboard, usually telling how wrong in every aspect are the people who have not left and how good is their new life in new home..... 16 hours ago, urbanoid said: He is in no danger to be sent to the Eastern front either, neither are Ukrainians who simply came here, don't have a citizenship etc. Let's wait and see. 16 hours ago, urbanoid said: Recently even the Ukr government allowed those under 22 to leave if they wish, which in my mind they wouldn't have done if they had manpower shortages as severe as some are claiming. Even hardline pro-Ukrainians believe this move was to "let the steam off" and avoid another Maidan-style disaster, this time against West-supported" Gov in Kiev. Note this regulation was immediately used by hundreds of thousands of young people of Ukr citizenship who just voted with their feet. 16 hours ago, urbanoid said: Well, yeah, that's different. Maybe a bit weird, but still... friend-enemy distinction and all that. Well, good for you. I fully support that - at least, most of children of those "new Britons" would be just Britons unable to understand the language etc. (as English is from another language group) so they are complete loss for Poland, so effectively the most radical anti-Russian elements of Polish society are self-moderating.
urbanoid Posted January 10 Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: Well, good for you. I fully support that - at least, most of children of those "new Britons" would be just Britons unable to understand the language etc. (as English is from another language group) so they are complete loss for Poland, so effectively the most radical anti-Russian elements of Polish society are self-moderating. And how, pray tell, did you reach that conclusion? 'Radical anti-Russian' is the norm here. Also in recent years Western societies largely adopted the attitude of the 'Eastern flank' when it comes to Russia, not the other way around. As far as I'm concerned the 'britished' Poles are welcome here as are the (white) Brits in general. Recently I saw the article according to which the number of Brits living in Poland grew over 4 times in the last decade, from ~40k to ~185k. I have no idea about the share of 'UK natives' and 'Polish descendants' among them.
Roman Alymov Posted January 10 Posted January 10 44 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: Pro-Rus take "Today, SVO duration has equaled that of the Great Patriotic War, a symbolic and difficult milestone. But if then the whole country was living on a frontline wave, from young to old, today there is an amazing gap. The war continues, regardless of whether everyone sees it. And every new day of this confrontation is another reminder that our reality has changed for a long time. Whether we fully realize it or not." https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/2398 And "guardian" take "The hype around the date of 1,418 days is not entirely clear, which supposedly goes longer than the Great Patriotic War (GPW) 1. GPW was a total patriotic war, where all the resources of society and the state were thrown into the war. SVO is still a limited war, where a part of society and the state continue to live in essentially peacetime conditions. 2. The GPW was fought with the support of a coalition of allies - only North Korea is fighting for us directly. Against a bloc of dozens of states actively involved in a proxy war against the Russian Federation and possessing collectively larger material resources. 3. In terms of timing, there have been longer wars. Apart from various proxy wars over the years (like Vietnam or African adventures), the same Afghan war was fought by the USSR for 10 years. The Russian Empire regularly waged long wars that exceeded the duration of the GPW and the Second World War (see the history of the wars with Poland and the Ottoman Empire). Right now, no one really cares how long a particular war with the Ottoman Empire was fought, if as a result of it certain territories joined Russia, including the Black Sea region and Crimea. Well, who cares how many years the wars for the return of Smolensk went on. 4. Since we have set goals, we will achieve them as much as necessary, by military or diplomatic means. Someone wants to hurry up (me too), but wishlist (including mine and not only about the timing) is one thing, but the objective military-political situation and the economic basis of the war are another matter. The desired must be measured against the possible. 5. The outcome of the war will be assessed not by its timing, but by its results. In the end, the main thing is the score on the scoreboard. If you can't win beautifully and quickly, just win. Because winning writes everything off. But if there is no victory, then all the lives, resources and time were wasted. As it was sung in a famous song, which means we need one victory, one for all, we will not stand for the price. Now we are slowly and bloodily moving towards our goals, despite all the ifs and buts. And we are crushing our enemies at the front." https://t.me/boris_rozhin/193903
Roman Alymov Posted January 10 Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, urbanoid said: And how, pray tell, did you reach that conclusion? Well, that is simple. Those who left post-Soviet countries, including Poland, to West (especially in early post-Soviet years) were mostly above-average in activity, education level etc. Taking children of this peopple out of Polish education system and society (that are, as we have allready discussed, based on deeply rooted anti-Russian sentiments based on hirtoric trauma of Polish upper class disasterously loosing competition to "Muscovy") and submerging them into regular Western system and media (that are also anti-Russian, but way more modestly then Polish ones -since West do not have this level of historic trauma, since, for example, collapse of British Empire was not associated with loosing to Russians) will make next generation of this British-Poles just regular Western citizens. And no reasons to believe this "new white Britons" would hate Russians who are far away more, then they would hate "British Pakistanians " who are very much on their doorsteps and raping their children..... Anyway all this is pure speculation now. Let's just wait and see, may be we will still be alive in 20 years to see it.
urbanoid Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Just now, Roman Alymov said: Well, that is simple. Those who left post-Soviet countries, including Poland, to West (especially in early post-Soviet years) were mostly above-average in activity, education level etc. Taking children of this peopple out of Polish education system and society (that are, as we have allready discussed, based on deeply rooted anti-Russian sentiments based on hirtoric trauma of Polish upper class disasterously loosing competition to "Muscovy") and submerging them into regular Western system and media (that are also anti-Russian, but way more modestly then Polish ones -since West do not have this level of historic trauma, since, for example, collapse of British Empire was not associated with loosing to Russians) will make next generation of this British-Poles just regular Western citizens. And no reasons to believe this "new white Britons" would hate Russians who are far away more, then they would hate "British Pakistanians " who are very much on their doorsteps and raping their children..... Anyway all this is pure speculation now. Let's just wait and see, may be we will still be alive in 20 years to see it. Let's say that A LOT of 'below average', including 'way below average' types went West too since early 2000s. Not to say they still aren't a loss, but on the bright side we can increasingly see them returning to Poland, often with loads of cash (relatively), probably not in the least because of the 'British Pakistanis' you mentioned, although I'd guess that the economic effects of Brexit have way more to do with that. Anti-Russian sentiments are the 'general ones' on the Eastern flank and increasingly all over the West. Even here they have barely anything to do with 'Polish upper class' grievances at this point. The reason for them is the recent and current behavior of the Russian Federation, not some 'ancient history'.
Jaroslav Posted January 10 Posted January 10 35 minutes ago, urbanoid said: Also in recent years Western societies... What is western society today?
Stefan Kotsch Posted January 10 Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: post-Soviet countries It has already been said once. The Soviet Union was the last state of the Eastern Bloc to collapse. Therefore, Poland and the other states west (!) of the Soviet Union cannot possibly be POST-Soviet.
urbanoid Posted January 10 Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Jaroslav said: What is western society today? A sum of societies of Western countries.
Jaroslav Posted January 10 Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, urbanoid said: A sum of societies of Western countries. You know that I didnt ask you that and I know that you can't answer me. I dont know answer either, no one does
Josh Posted January 10 Posted January 10 14 hours ago, mkenny said: I would say this better describes the EU's insane reaction. Effectively destroying its access to cheap energy (now powering Chinese AI) the reputation of its banking system whilst chaining its taxpayers to decades of funding Ukrainian golden toilet production. Even the Swiss have decided to join in and it has caved to US demands over Venezuelan money. In effect the west has hastened its economic decline by becoming a US vassal and for its pains Trump is now going to take Greenland from them. The EU has simply reprioritized its physical security to higher level than it’s economic security due to the increased Russian threat after years of letting Russia carry out sabotage and assassination campaigns on its territory. 14 hours ago, mkenny said: The EU is betting everything on mid-term Democrat take-over and a quick Trump impeachment. The Don is on borrowed time. Trump is in no danger of being removed; the next election will not really constrain his foreign policy. Domestic politics likely get a lot more spicy, but not even the Republicans in Congress were briefed on the Venezuelan raid. One simply hopes that his cabinet realizes the domestic and international turmoil military action would produce and turns him away from the option.
Roman Alymov Posted January 10 Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said: It has already been said once. The Soviet Union was the last state of the Eastern Bloc to collapse. Therefore, Poland and the other states west (!) of the Soviet Union cannot possibly be POST-Soviet. Post-Soviet means states that emerged after Socialist system collapsed, not states that outlived USSR.
Roman Alymov Posted January 10 Posted January 10 1 hour ago, urbanoid said: Let's say that A LOT of 'below average', including 'way below average' types went West too since early 2000s. It is not contradicting my text above. 1 hour ago, urbanoid said: Not to say they still aren't a loss, but on the bright side we can increasingly see them returning to Poland, often with loads of cash (relatively), probably not in the least because of the 'British Pakistanis' you mentioned, although I'd guess that the economic effects of Brexit have way more to do with that. Again, no contradiction here. The same way we see not only ex-migrants, but also "real" Westerners coming to RF to live here. But i can't say they are allready making statistically significant group. 1 hour ago, urbanoid said: Anti-Russian sentiments are the 'general ones' on the Eastern flank and increasingly all over the West. Even here they have barely anything to do with 'Polish upper class' grievances at this point. The reason for them is the recent and current behavior of the Russian Federation, not some 'ancient history'. I see it differently, but let's agree to disagree here.
Stuart Galbraith Posted January 10 Posted January 10 5 hours ago, urbanoid said: Btw as of today the full scale war has lasted 1418 days, as long as the 'Great Patriotic War'. This time next year in Berlin!
Stefan Kotsch Posted January 10 Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said: Post-Soviet means states that emerged after Socialist system Yes, of course. How could I have forgotten? Moscow was the navel of the Soviet Mir. 😇
seahawk Posted January 11 Posted January 11 11 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: This time next year in Berlin! One can hope.
urbanoid Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Damn... https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2010746401714782242
Roman Alymov Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Compilation of medium-range drone strikes videos by Rubicon https://t.me/boris_rozhin/194206
Stuart Galbraith Posted January 13 Posted January 13 16 hours ago, urbanoid said: Damn... https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2010746401714782242 The face that launched a thousand T55's.
Roman Alymov Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Take from KTsPN "1,418 days of Special Military Operation in Ukraine Today, January 13, is a significant date - 1,418 days since the beginning of its history. At one time, it took exactly that much for the Red Army to defeat Fascism in Europe and raise the banner of Victory over its defeated capital, Berlin. By this time, Kiev had been liberated for a year and a half. Do you remember when it was fashionable to glue patriotic pictures with the slogan "1941-1945 We can repeat" on cars? Now they are not visible, and for good reason: it is clear that we could not "repeat" them. The fighting has been going on for four years, but if in the last war the capitals of regions, republics and countries were taken for the fourth year, now there is a struggle for regional centers. It 's clear why this happens .: The Great Patriotic War was neither short nor easy, but it was a war for results. Her main slogan: "Everything for the front, everything for victory!" was not just a PR slogan. It's not for nothing that people call it a "strange military operation." Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, which has actually been going on for the 12th year, Russia has twice missed a chance to win. The first time was in the spring of 2014, when there really would have been enough limited contingents of troops to clear Kiev and the entire eastern and central Ukraine of the pro-Western elites and neo-Nazis who had just taken power, or at least create a "Greater Novorossiya" - the territory of the Russian protectorate from Odessa to Kharkov, which could give us real guarantees. security in the south-west direction. But instead, anti-Russia, which was emerging in the former Ukraine, was given 8 years to reformat society, rearm and form a totalitarian fascist state under the auspices of NATO, focused on only one thing - a future war with us. The second chance was missed in the first months of the war, due to the total underestimation of the enemy's capabilities and the will of his masters on both sides of the ocean. As a result, the war turned into a protracted "limited conflict" with creeping "raising the stakes", crossing "red lines" and endless political games. We are told that we are advancing on all fronts and, it seems, we are really advancing, but we can advance like this for years, with an unclear perspective. The ongoing confrontation has its advantages: the domestic manufacturing sector has received incentives and opportunities for development in a variety of industries, our civil society has largely rallied and self-cleansed, and Russia has gained allies, albeit situational ones. On the other hand, there is no unity in the camp of the enemies, and the maintenance of the parasitic Ukrainian quasi-state is costing the enemy more and more expensive and is getting tired of it. However, in general, the situation remains unclear and may develop in the direction of both attenuation and escalation of the conflict. It is clear, including from past experience, that any agreements here are worthless and in modern conditions of positional warfare can only mean a temporary freeze in hostilities while maintaining confrontation. So nothing will end with the formal end of the SVO. At a minimum, the bloc of European NATO countries will continue to harm Russia with all its might, and for Russia itself, the existence of Ukraine in its current format of a terrorist enclave will remain unacceptable. So the struggle will continue one way or another, on the same frontiers or on new ones. After all, Russia fought for Ukraine and Novorossiya with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Ottoman Empire throughout the 17th and first half of the 18th centuries. And she was also the object of hatred of the collective West, both then and later. It remains to do what is necessary and help the front with all our might, and time will tell who will have the next round in the old dispute. Cogito ergo vinco I THINK, THEREFORE, I WIN!" https://t.me/kcpn2014/3664
Roman Alymov Posted January 13 Posted January 13 "SVO is still far from over, but Russia has delivered the main strategic blow to the world order and won a crushing victory. At the top is a seemingly complex chart from Julius Baer, a small Swiss bank specializing in private banking and asset management (the "bank" of whom you need). The graph shows that the Bretton Woods system turned the dollar into inflating gold, de facto equating US Treasuries to "yellow bullion." Holders of American bonds have been earning returns similar to gold for decades, and inflation and a small coupon on top were covered by debt service interest. At the same time, the holders of American bonds did not bear the cost of storing gold in safes. In general, everything looked reasonable, prudent and convenient for investors. The Bretton Woods Agreement (and then the Jamaican Agreement) lasted for almost 80 years. However, the freezing of Russian assets as the main form of pressure on Russia killed Bretton Woods: gold's dependence on US Treasuries broke. Simply put, the most conservative investors in the world have seen that assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars can be "frozen" (here confiscated) by a single arbitrary decision by the head of the United States or the EU, even without providing a certificate of their mental health. And off it went: a careful exit from US-Treasuries and a rapid flow of capital into gold began (so far). In other words, US-Treasuries and gold are no longer synonymous. This means that the United States lost its main achievement of the Second World War in Ukraine — the dollar as the world's savings currency. In parallel, the dismantling of the dollar system as the world's settlement currency is underway — and this is a disaster for the US Treasury and the Fed. Hence the very strange and inconsistent activities of the White House in recent months: the categorical refusal to permanently confiscate Russian assets, an attempt to "fill" the dollar bubble with oil from Venezuela, Iran and American LNG and other tangible assets. For Russia, the price of victory is frozen currency reserves worth 300 billion dollars. They are lost. This is 2 thousand dollars per resident of the country. Quite a lot. But thanks to this sacrifice, the dollar system began to fall (the money volume of M2 is 22 trillion dollars) and the euro system (M2 is 16 trillion dollars). In other words, frozen Russian assets represent less than 1% of the money supply in the United States and Europe. And in this context, the losses of the opponents are two orders of magnitude higher." https://t.me/topinfographic/4125
Roman Alymov Posted January 13 Posted January 13 On 1/10/2026 at 9:05 PM, urbanoid said: Anti-Russian sentiments are the 'general ones' on the Eastern flank and increasingly all over the West. Even here they have barely anything to do with 'Polish upper class' grievances at this point. The reason for them is the recent and current behavior of the Russian Federation, not some 'ancient history'. By the way re: "Anti-Russian sentiments are the 'general ones' on the Eastern flank and increasingly all over the West." "The graph above shows the most important political outcome of the SVO: German residents' trust in the United States has fallen to a historic low. The Germans only treat Russia worse, but not dramatically: the public's trust in the United States and Russia is about the same level, and the difference can be attributed to a statistical error. That is, today the German feels about the same "indignation" towards both Russia and America, the two victors of World War II who divided the country in two, with the only difference being that Russia withdrew its troops from the GDR 35 years ago, while the US military contingent is still stationed in Germany. At the moment, the trust of German residents in a particular country does not play any role — who asks their opinion when the American boot is firmly planted on German soil? But Germany is a key U.S. ally in NATO, the alliance's main sponsor, an important logistics and military hub in Europe, the EU's largest economy, and a major market for American products. In this light, the loss of German confidence for the United States is a huge long—term political defeat: the "floor" under the American boot is rapidly becoming covered with ice. The change is extremely important. The Germans were forced to outsource the main function of the state — security — to the US troops. But trust in these troops has been lost. Germans are already sympathetic to nationalist movements and parties, anti-Atlantic sentiments are growing, and gradually Germany is "pupating." This will lead to the gradual displacement of Americans, first from Germany, and then from Europe. In general, all this happened with the USSR in Europe half a century ago, and now it is happening with the United States. Of course, in many ways, the States themselves have messed up, changing the vector of policy in favor of one party or another that came to power. They artificially created a military crisis in Ukraine by dragging the EU countries into it, and then abandoning them — leaving them alone with "evil" Russia. The United States milked the economies of the once prosperous countries of the Old World through LNG, oil, and tariffs. They are trying to relocate factories from Europe to America. In general, a lot of mistakes have been made. With such a level of trust from the US population, it will be difficult to stay in Europe: the attitude of Germans towards the United States is still far from the hatred of Afghans, Vietnamese or Iraqis, but the trend is obvious. This means that the process of political restructuring of the European system has been launched and is already irreversible." https://t.me/topinfographic/4126
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