Kiev Is Burning

[Marek Tucan]

AFAIR there were many wild rumors on the Square (incl this). I say don't go RUMINT

 

Seems that so fart the most likely location is Eastern Ukraine, namely Kharkiv. Even if he folded, Russia is probably more logical destination. Dubai means admitting defeat, Russia means staying on the scene with Putin as a backup. I would say with strong position in Russian regions, the latter is more likely.

[T19]

Sochi will have lots of places to stay next week. And climate seems nice

[Marek Tucan]

Ah yes, one of Opposition leaders also talks about Yanukhovych promising to resign. And heads of Kiev police seem to be now also claiming to "stand by the people". TV starts showing injured policemen... Guess an attempt at de-escalation?

 

Would suggest that Putin decided Yanukhovych botched the situation too much and that it is time to cut the losses and throw him under the bus.

 

Edit: And "The gas must flow..."

Edited February 22, 2014 by Marek Tucan

[Marek Tucan]

Members of parliament were hastily recalled to meeting even though there was a break announced for today.

[Marek Tucan]

Hm, seems it is not over yet...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304842

 

 

Ukraine president decries 'coup'

Breaking news

Ukraine President Yanukovych refuses to quit, describes Kiev events as a "coup"

More to follow.

[bojan]

And technically he is right, it is a coup.

[Corinthian]

Coup, revolution, uprising, whatever.

 

It's not over till it's *really* over.

 

Let's hope Russia doesn't go around grasping at whatever straws as basis to intervene militarily. Though a part of me says Putin ain't that crazy and rational enough to know when to quit - and start on a new track.

[X-Files]

 

 

Perhaps not, but those protesters could be armed to the teeth with everything from a healthily equipped Rec room, and it wont do anything for them when someone decides to muscle up and send the T72s in. Im surprised its not already happened TBH.

 

 

The thing about sending in the AFVs is that there are really just 3 outcomes; Prague, Tianamen, or Bucharest. I know little of Ukraine, but if the gov't escalates, I believe the outcome will be Bucharest.

 

 

You forgot Grozny.

 

 

[X-Files]

 

Hm, seems it is not over yet...

Ukraine president decries 'coup'

 

 

You know that part 80 minutes into a horror movie, where the monster/bad guy just got shot in the chest?

 

Yeah, it's like that.

[bojan]

 

You forgot Grozny.

 

Grozny ended in what condition and part of what country, remind me again?

[AETiglathPZ]

You guys totally forgot Moskva in 1993.

http://youtu.be/Pq70twXc_EA

[Marek Tucan]

Realistically though it depends primarily on how much are the tankers/police/whatever willing to shoot the people. It gets much easier for them if they are under fire.

[X-Files]

 

 

You forgot Grozny.

 

Grozny ended in what condition and part of what country, remind me again?

 

 

Exactly my point (although 2,000 Mujihadeen kept up to 100k Russian troops 'busy' for most of a decade.

[Marek Tucan]

Beeb reports Yanukhovych was stopped from leaving the country by border security.

 

EDIT: And that while the conference of heads of "Russian" regions denounced the coup and supported him, its two key representatives subsequently left the country to Russia. And there seem to be substantial demonstrations in the Eastern big cities as well so maybe this time they found it is not about ethnicity.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Marek Tucan

[bojan]

 

Exactly my point (although 2,000 Mujihadeen kept up to 100k Russian troops 'busy' for most of a decade.

 

Yes, they can do that OFC, but w/o outside support any such effort is bound to fail.

 

My bet re Ukraine - whatever happens and whoever gets in power in 5 year opposite hardliners get to power again as "democratic" government will again show to be kleptocracy.

[Marek Tucan]

Well, cleptocracy it will be in any case. maybe this time the pepole will start to value the difference between cleptocracy you can at least shuffle around every 5 years and cleptocracy that shoots at you when you try

 

EDIT: According to news from spot. while Tymoshenko was greeted as symbol, she didn't get that great reception overall regarding current politics. Might indicate the shift to new generation of politicians overall?

Edited February 22, 2014 by Marek Tucan

[Ivanhoe]

EDIT: And that while the conference of heads of "Russian" regions denounced the coup and supported him, its two key representatives subsequently left the country to Russia.

 

Why did they do that? Seems like a really bad time to be choosing sides. When in doubt, sit it out.

[swerve]

And technically he is right, it is a coup.

Is it? The parliament has voted to impeach him, which AFAIK is perfectly legal under the laws of Ukraine. He was president, recognised by opposition leaders as such, the police were obeying him, & he had signed an agreement under which he approved such things as reversion to the 2004 constitution (since voted through by the Rada), & then he disappeared, resurfacing far from Kiev saying 'It was a coup! Fascists have taken over!" He ran away & his government fell apart. With no orders, the police gave up trying to enforce his wishes. How is that a coup?

 

He's almost certainly guilty of massive theft & abuse of power. People who tried to look into his personal finances have been murdered. He's abandoned his responsibilities as president. So what's wrong with the parliament voting to impeach him, calling early elections, & setting up a transitional government?

 

There's another thing to consider. He ceased to exercise the powers of his office. If he did so because his subordinates stopped obeying him, that's not a coup, it's a collapse in his credibility & authority, which is not a coup. A leader who loses the confidence of his people & the apparatus of the state to such an extent that he can no longer exercise his powers is incapable, just as someone is who's lost his faculties. He has to be replaced. Any sensible constitution has a method for doing so, & impeachment is one of those methods.

 

If he ceased to exercise his powers because he chose to flee from them, then he has, in effect, resigned. Impeachment formalises that. Abandonment of office is usually one of the causes for replacement allowed for in constitutions.

[swerve]

AFAIR there were many wild rumors on the Square (incl this). I say don't go RUMINT

 

Seems that so fart the most likely location is Eastern Ukraine, namely Kharkiv. Even if he folded, Russia is probably more logical destination. Dubai means admitting defeat, Russia means staying on the scene with Putin as a backup. I would say with strong position in Russian regions, the latter is more likely.

No. Leaving the country is abdication. Anyone in such a situation has to stay close to the action up to the point where it's obviously not safe, & then move to whatever part of the country is still safe & act as if he's still in charge, making a show of exercising all his powers in any places that will accept that. The moment you leave the country you've conceded everything. And in his position, fleeing to Russia would be an admission that he's Putin's bitch.

[swerve]

Well, cleptocracy it will be in any case. maybe this time the pepole will start to value the difference between cleptocracy you can at least shuffle around every 5 years and cleptocracy that shoots at you when you try

 

EDIT: According to news from spot. while Tymoshenko was greeted as symbol, she didn't get that great reception overall regarding current politics. Might indicate the shift to new generation of politicians overall?

Maybe. Certainly interesting. She's almost as much part of the problem as Yanukovich is. Not as brutal, maybe not as corrupt, but not what I think of as a good democrat who puts the interests of the country first. Perhaps they've got sick of politicians like her.

 

But what Ukrainian politicians aren't like her?

[Corinthian]

 

Well, cleptocracy it will be in any case. maybe this time the pepole will start to value the difference between cleptocracy you can at least shuffle around every 5 years and cleptocracy that shoots at you when you try

 

EDIT: According to news from spot. while Tymoshenko was greeted as symbol, she didn't get that great reception overall regarding current politics. Might indicate the shift to new generation of politicians overall?

Maybe. Certainly interesting. She's almost as much part of the problem as Yanukovich is. Not as brutal, maybe not as corrupt, but not what I think of as a good democrat who puts the interests of the country first. Perhaps they've got sick of politicians like her.

 

But what Ukrainian politicians aren't like her?

 

 

She is still one helluva MILF...

 

 

And her daughter ain't bad looking either:

 

 

Ok ok ok back to topic....

Edited February 23, 2014 by TomasCTT

[ink]

 

And technically he is right, it is a coup.

Is it? The parliament has voted to impeach him, which AFAIK is perfectly legal under the laws of Ukraine. He was president, recognised by opposition leaders as such, the police were obeying him, & he had signed an agreement under which he approved such things as reversion to the 2004 constitution (since voted through by the Rada), & then he disappeared, resurfacing far from Kiev saying 'It was a coup! Fascists have taken over!" He ran away & his government fell apart. With no orders, the police gave up trying to enforce his wishes. How is that a coup?

 

He's almost certainly guilty of massive theft & abuse of power. People who tried to look into his personal finances have been murdered. He's abandoned his responsibilities as president. So what's wrong with the parliament voting to impeach him, calling early elections, & setting up a transitional government?

 

There's another thing to consider. He ceased to exercise the powers of his office. If he did so because his subordinates stopped obeying him, that's not a coup, it's a collapse in his credibility & authority, which is not a coup. A leader who loses the confidence of his people & the apparatus of the state to such an extent that he can no longer exercise his powers is incapable, just as someone is who's lost his faculties. He has to be replaced. Any sensible constitution has a method for doing so, & impeachment is one of those methods.

 

If he ceased to exercise his powers because he chose to flee from them, then he has, in effect, resigned. Impeachment formalises that. Abandonment of office is usually one of the causes for replacement allowed for in constitutions.

 

 

It certainly isn't a coup. That's the wrong word. What is certain is that the government was overthrown violently. Maybe that's a revolution then but it certainly isn't a democratic, peaceful change of government.

 

Also, as someone who has little faith in revolutions as a force for good, I would also add that it isn't likely to be very beneficial to the people of the Ukraine in the long-run.

 

Anyway, it isn't over yet so we'll just have to wait and see.

[Ivanhoe]

Interesting tweet;

If you want to know who the good guys are in Ukraine, they're the ones pulling down Lenin statues.

David Burge (@iowahawkblog)

https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/statuses/437230206948880384

February 22, 2014

[Mr King]

Came across this article. A question to you with a good grasp of the situation, is it a decent crib notes of this whole mess?

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/understanding-euromaidan-2014-1?utm_source=slate&utm_medium=referral&utm_term=partner

[Corinthian]

A coup?

 

A revolution?

 

It's a "popular uprising by the people against their government resulting to a change of leadership." Or PUBTPATGRTACOL, pronounced as Pubta-Pat-Gratacol.