Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

49 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Saw a report yesterday that Trump has basically terminated support for Ukraine, so it would be hard for Europe to not surpass US supply.  The implicit deal being offered to the Russians seems to be a free hand in Ukraine in exchange for a free hand in Iran.  Most curious.

It is hysterical that you cling to this notion that Russia can do anything significant to help Iran even if it wanted to.

[mkenny]

46 minutes ago, Josh said:

It is hysterical that you cling to this notion that Russia can do anything significant to help Iran even if it wanted to.

Yep 'nuthin can stop them there western wunder-waffen. 

[Josh]

7 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Yep 'nuthin can stop them there western wunder-waffen. 

Yes, your tired one-size-fits-all argument for west vs Russia, even when weapon systems are not being discussed.

Tell me, how would you help Iran if you were Putin for a day? What Russowaffen would you float over the Caspian to save axis of broken resistance?

[mkenny]

25 minutes ago, Josh said:

Yes, your tired one-size-fits-all argument for west vs Russia, even when weapon systems are not being discussed.

The reaction it gets proves how effective it is. 

You would think you learned your lesson when the previous 243 predictions  of the game-changing ability of the   high-tech unstoppable western wunder-waffen  all fell flat.

Imagine the ignominy,  the best-of-the-west humbled  by a ragged bunch of ex-cons armed only with shovels and depended on looted Zanussi washing machine chips!. 

[seahawk]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Saw a report yesterday that Trump has basically terminated support for Ukraine, so it would be hard for Europe to not surpass US supply.  The implicit deal being offered to the Russians seems to be a free hand in Ukraine in exchange for a free hand in Iran.  Most curious.

The art of deal. Exchange something of no value to the USA (Ukraine) for strategic dominance in Middle East. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

As if Russia has ever had that to offer.

[Stefan Kotsch]

13 minutes ago, mkenny said:

You would think you learned your lesson when the previous 243 predictions  of the game-changing ability of the   high-tech unstoppable western wunder-waffen  all fell flat.

Israel is currently demonstrating how to take over and secure air supremacy.

Iran is also equipped with Russian SAM systems. ... 😊

Edited June 17, 2025 by Stefan Kotsch

[bfng3569]

13 minutes ago, mkenny said:

The reaction it gets proves how effective it is. 

 

wow!  congrats!  a rare self proclaimed troll in full acknowledgement! rare thing out here...

and in regard to the post you were doing what ever it is you do with, from what i read, my interpretation (not to put words in anyone else text) but it sure seemed to me that it was about Russia's inability in its current state of affairs to PROVIDE Iran with anything meaningful or useful at this point in time and nothing at all to do with the 'wester wonder waffles'... which are quite delicious

[JWB]

Naked terrorism.

 

[Josh]

25 minutes ago, mkenny said:

The reaction it gets proves how effective it is. 

You would think you learned your lesson when the previous 243 predictions  of the game-changing ability of the   high-tech unstoppable western wunder-waffen  all fell flat.

Imagine the ignominy,  the best-of-the-west humbled  by a ragged bunch of ex-cons armed only with shovels and depended on looted Zanussi washing machine chips!. 

Quote any one of my posts if you are going to fault my predictions. I’ll wait. Outside of HIMARS, I think you are going to have a hard time making that argument stick to me, and I believe HIMARS did in fact alter the operational and even strategic situation.

In any case, this is about Iran, not Russia, and all you have done is roll out your straw man argument in a less concise way while ignoring my question: what specifically could Russia do to help Iran?

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Tell me, how would you help Iran if you were Putin for a day? What Russowaffen would you float over the Caspian to save axis of broken resistance?

First principle is that any Russian response will follow, and will not lead, the Chinese response.   That is to say, if the Chinese do nothing then the Russians will do nothing.  If the Chinese get involved, then the Russians will need to support their ally China to one degree or another.

The second principle is that if China gets involved, it won't need any help from anyone except the Pakistanis.  You're a systems genius, you understand perfectly well that DF21 and DF26 can sweep the upper half of the Indian Ocean from China and Pakistan, while the Americans lack the land based air assets like are in play on China's east coast.  Without land based air support, those carriers are hanging out in the wind if the Chinese switch their missiles over to the west.  You  also know perfectly well that the Chinese could in theory hit Israel with DF-26's from China, and that their bomber fleet can rain missiles on Israel unimpeded from Western Pakistan.

So already Russia is a secondary factor.   China is the main player here with its geopolitical strategy and economy at stake, not Russia, and China will make its decisions first.

The third principle is that Russia must win the war in Ukraine, for if it does not, the war in Iran is meaningless to its prospects.  So Russia must do nothing in Iran that jeapardizes the outcome to the Ukraine war.

The fourth principle is that Russia has signed a security agreement with Iran, and Putin tends to honor his agreements.

These points are to an extent in conflict with each other.  Summing that all up, I would guess that the assistance the Russians will provide will be on the intelligence, security, and air defense fronts.   I doubt they supply offensive weapons.

Edited June 17, 2025 by glenn239

[glenn239]

19 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Israel is currently demonstrating how to take over and secure air supremacy.

That is true, but they are also demonstrating that they have no choice but to fly their tanker fleet over unsecure Syrian wilderness.  That pattern might not be sustainable.

[Josh]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

First principle is that any Russian response will follow, and will not lead, the Chinese response.   That is to say, if the Chinese do nothing then the Russians will do nothing.  If the Chinese get involved, then the Russians will need to support their ally China to one degree or another.

The second principle is that if China gets involved, it won't need any help from anyone except the Pakistanis.  You're a systems genius, you understand perfectly well that DF21 and DF26 can sweep the upper half of the Indian Ocean from China and Pakistan, while the Americans lack the land based air assets like are in play on China's east coast.

So already Russia is a secondary factor.

This sounds like a long winded way of saying the same thing I did, only with a caveat “but we could have done something if we really *wanted* to”.

Re: AShMs, If Pakistan threatened US interests in that way, they would suffer the same fate as Iran. The U.S. would not have a problem hitting targets there.

 

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The second principle is that Russia must win the war in Ukraine, for if it does not, the war in Iran is meaningless to its prospects.  So Russia must do nothing in Iran that jeapardizes the outcome to the Ukraine war.

Obviously Russia will prioritize their own war. I was just asking hypothetically what could they physically do even if they had a reason too; they are not wasting any resources on Iran until the Ukraine conflict is concluded.

This underlines how much value the west gets from its Ukraine support: Russia is tied down to the point of being more or less neutralized in every other theater.

 

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The third principle is that Russia has signed a security agreement with Iran, and Putin tends to honor his agreements.

Summing that all up, I would guess that the assistance the Russians will provide will be on the intelligence, security, and air defense fronts.   I doubt they supply offensive weapons.

I cannot think of many other agreements he has honored, but we will agree to disagree.

Summing up, I think they will do little of even those things: I suspect even their orbital intelligence assets are heavily tasked. I doubt they have AD they are willing to part with and I suspect the the IAF blows up any deliveries on the tarmac/pier if they did.

Edited June 17, 2025 by Josh

[txtree99]

36 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

First principle is that any Russian response will follow, and will not lead, the Chinese response.   That is to say, if the Chinese do nothing then the Russians will do nothing.  If the Chinese get involved, then the Russians will need to support their ally China to one degree or another.

The second principle is that if China gets involved, it won't need any help from anyone except the Pakistanis.  You're a systems genius, you understand perfectly well that DF21 and DF26 can sweep the upper half of the Indian Ocean from China and Pakistan, while the Americans lack the land based air assets like are in play on China's east coast.  Without land based air support, those carriers are hanging out in the wind if the Chinese switch their missiles over to the west.  You  also know perfectly well that the Chinese could in theory hit Israel with DF-26's from China, and that their bomber fleet can rain missiles on Israel unimpeded from Western Pakistan.

So already Russia is a secondary factor.   China is the main player here with its geopolitical strategy and economy at stake, not Russia, and China will make its decisions first.

The third principle is that Russia must win the war in Ukraine, for if it does not, the war in Iran is meaningless to its prospects.  So Russia must do nothing in Iran that jeapardizes the outcome to the Ukraine war.

The fourth principle is that Russia has signed a security agreement with Iran, and Putin tends to honor his agreements.

These points are to an extent in conflict with each other.  Summing that all up, I would guess that the assistance the Russians will provide will be on the intelligence, security, and air defense fronts.   I doubt they supply offensive weapons.

What a maniacal view.   

[Josh]

33 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

What a maniacal view.   

It is kinda of on the level of “what if the U.S. just gave Taiwan nukes”: divorced from the reality of the interests of the powers involved and absolutely ignoring any political or economic context.

[urbanoid]

Many such cases when hopium for le evil west getting its ass kicked overpowers rational thoughts.

[mkenny]

5 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Many such cases when hopium for le evil west getting its ass kicked overpowers rational thoughts.

The western arse was well and truly kicked in Ukraine. Where  now  the uber-panzer  Leopards and Challengers that were  dashing  to the sea of Azov to isolate Crimea ?

 

[urbanoid]

Just now, mkenny said:

The western arse was well and truly kicked in Ukraine. Where  now  the uber-panzer  Leopards and Challengers that were  dashing  to the sea of Azov to isolate Crimea ?

 

Ukraine is still in the fight, in what was supposed to be a quick victorious war for Russia.

The unrealized hopes of some journos and/or fanboys don't diminish the success of keeping Ukraine in the fight while inflicting gigantic losses on the strategic competitor.

[Josh]

42 minutes ago, mkenny said:

The western arse was well and truly kicked in Ukraine. Where  now  the uber-panzer  Leopards and Challengers that were  dashing  to the sea of Azov to isolate Crimea ?

 

As far as I can recall the Ukraine war is still going and the Russians are down from their high of 27% to 20% control of conquered territory, thanks to western support and in particular HIMARs which forced the Russians to the east bank of the Dnieper.

ETA: the current status of perpetual Ukraine war suits NATO just fine.

Edited June 17, 2025 by Josh

[mkenny]

18 minutes ago, Josh said:

As far as I can recall the Ukraine war is still going and the Russians are down from their high of 27% to 20% control of conquered territory, thanks to western support and in particular HIMARs which forced the Russians to the east bank of the Dnieper.

ETA: the current status of perpetual Ukraine war suits NATO just fine.

....but where are the uber-panzers that were  going to crush everything before them and reach the sea of Azov?  

[mkenny]

58 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The unrealized hopes of some journos and/or fanboys don't diminish the success of keeping Ukraine in the fight while inflicting gigantic losses on the strategic competitor.

The recent lopsided  body-swap being  undeniable proof that Russia is the one suffering 'gigantic losses'!

[yochlol]

1 hour ago, mkenny said:

....but where are the uber-panzers that were  going to crush everything before them and reach the sea of Azov?  

Ah yes, those ridiculous claims by the Collective West! How many days was it supposed to take again? Six days to the coast of the Azov?

[Stefan Kotsch]

2 hours ago, mkenny said:

The western arse was well and truly kicked in Ukraine.

After your weird Kiev-in-three-days-show, I would sit quietly in the back row

[mkenny]

55 minutes ago, yochlol said:

Ah yes, those ridiculous claims by the Collective West! How many days was it supposed to take again? Six days to the coast of the Azov?

The attackers made it 5 miles  before they were stopped dead at Robotyne. The Russians released footage of several   dead Leopards and were immediately accused of lying/faking the footage. Turns out it was the Ukrainians that lied. 

Anway the Ukrainian advance rate was about 5 Leopards per  mile!

[mkenny]

30 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

After your weird Kiev-in-three-days-show, I would sit quietly in the back row

It is amazing how the small rump of true believers who spend their time here insisting  'Ukraine is winning and Russia is  losing  ' completely  lose their merde   when anyone dares suggest they have it arse first!