Kiev Is Burning

[seahawk]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

(I actually thought I was replying to Ink, not our resident court Jester or I probably wouldnt have bothered, but now I have, Im not inclined to delete it all, because it wants laying down once and for all)

Ok, for the millionth time. War is bad, Mkay? When an aggressor starts a wars and wins a war, he receives the lesson he can always start wars and get away with them. This was illustrated with the war in Georgia and the seizure of Crimea, for which Russia was not punished.

If Russia believes it can gain territory through military use, not only does it gain the lesson it can conceivably do so against European border regions (Finland, Baltic states, Moldova), it also gives the lesson to lunatics in the world, Xi, Netanyahu, Donald Trump not least, that they can go and seize territory and suffer no ill effects as a result.

We set a precident in 1945. You dont go and changing European or world borders with military force. And whilst the takeup on that message was slow (and we were still enforcing that lesson with military force as late as 1991) as a rule it was a good one. And yes, I do know someone is going to say 'Because Kosovo'. However one likes it, Kosovo was an isolated case that proved the rule. Nobody else in Europe has had chunks annexed since, which rather illustrates it. Other than Ukraine of course.

Maybe everyone wants to go back to the 1930's, with Mussolini desciding to Hoover up Ethiopia, Japan wanting to annex China, Hitler wanting his Austria and Sudetenland (and worse to come), but personally, im happy with leaving all the worlds borders as they are, the world our Grandfathers bequeithed us with. We change that rule at our peril, because we will unleash a series of wars we will not be able to stop without much bloodshed and treasure. Frankly id be decidedly happy not to unleash a world war if thats alright with you.

This is self evident, in my view at least. So evident I really wonder why I have to keep repeating it on this grate site. Maybe the US taxpayer doesnt think thats good value for money. Well, there is nothing I can prescribe for general stupidity.

There are plenty of wars, still not everyone of them seems to be equally important. Why are wars in Europe more important to the US than wars in Africa? Now if you look at Chinese influence and valuable raw materials, many of those conflicts are a bigger threat to the US economy than the Ukraine.

Sure Europe might look at this from a different point of view, but why should the US care. US interests must come first.

[Roman Alymov]

Photos of what is described as Т-72М1with British Track Width Mine Ploughs (TWMP), recovered by pro-Russians https://t.me/boris_rozhin/154354

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, seahawk said:

There are plenty of wars, still not everyone of them seems to be equally important. Why are wars in Europe more important to the US than wars in Africa? Now if you look at Chinese influence and valuable raw materials, many of those conflicts are a bigger threat to the US economy than the Ukraine.

Sure Europe might look at this from a different point of view, but why should the US care. US interests must come first.

It seems curious that America is wanting to tariff us into submission because they are deperate to trade with us, but are not willing when push comes to shove to fight for us to keep their market access.

Well it is Donald Trump, it doesnt have to be consistent or make sense of course.

[ex2cav]

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

It seems curious that America is wanting to tariff us into submission because they are deperate to trade with us, but are not willing when push comes to shove to fight for us to keep their market access.

Well it is Donald Trump, it doesnt have to be consistent or make sense of course.

Britain is welcome to continue the war on its own terms if it wishes. How many troops has the west committed to the Russo-Ukraine War this point? How many has Britain committed? I think the answer to both is near zero. The west has financed the war, but really paid very little price for it. Again, Britain is welcome to continue the war as it sees fit.

[Sinistar]

9 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Britain is welcome to continue the war on its own terms if it wishes. How many troops has the west committed to the Russo-Ukraine War this point? How many has Britain committed? I think the answer to both is near zero. The west has financed the war, but really paid very little price for it. Again, Britain is welcome to continue the war as it sees fit.

 

so you see they cannot and will not. and so like stuart starmer might talk the talk but is no position to walk the walk

 

blame trump

 

both macron and starmer have been playing this game of trying to somehow bluff with going into ukraine

neither have taken steps to do that nor will they

 

if that is trump's fault

then it is really an admission as to how powerless they perceive themselves

since they blame it on trump when they are supposedly free to act

[seahawk]

Which troops would they sent, if the army runs out of spare parts in 2 days and can field a weak company?

European socialistic are used to use the US power for the own agendas - but with Trump that has finally come to an end and Trump uses US power for the interests of US citizens and no longer to please US hating, European leftists.

Trump will sit down with Putin, they will make a great deal and the war will end. Maybe the Ukraine will be a part of Russia in the future and Russia pledges access to raw materials to US companies. That would be a great deal.

Edited February 13 by seahawk

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Sinistar said:

 

so you see they cannot and will not. and so like stuart starmer might talk the talk but is no position to walk the walk

 

blame trump

 

both macron and starmer have been playing this game of trying to somehow bluff with going into ukraine

neither have taken steps to do that nor will they

 

if that is trump's fault

then it is really an admission as to how powerless they perceive themselves

since they blame it on trump when they are supposedly free to act

Its always someone elses fault isnt it? 'Oh well we cant defend the Sudetenland, because France wont back us up!' Exchange that for 'well we are the worlds last superpower, we cant possibly do anything because Britain wont back us up!'

At every single point the US has been on the back foot on the Ukraine war. Whether its antitank weapons, tanks, warplanes, artillery, long range strike weapons. And after the Europeans have beaten you to the punch at every point, now you all whine 'But we cant do anything, the Europeans dont have our back!'. Theres you, having sent 31 tanks with a stockpile of 6000, apparently you cant do anymore. There is the Netherlands and the sodding Danes sending dozens of F16's, and you sat with hundreds in a stockpile to turn into bloody target drones. Maybe you think your fellow tanknetters are impressed by this feeble reasoning, but im not.

Do you really believe all this pish, or is someone writing it all down for you?

[Stuart Galbraith]

10 hours ago, ex2cav said:

Britain is welcome to continue the war on its own terms if it wishes. How many troops has the west committed to the Russo-Ukraine War this point? How many has Britain committed? I think the answer to both is near zero. The west has financed the war, but really paid very little price for it. Again, Britain is welcome to continue the war as it sees fit.

 

Britain spent 27 BILLION POUNDS underwriting your utter fiasco in Afghanistan. For America thats probably a Days ammunition at the gun range, for us, that was big money. And after expending that obscene amount of cash on your behalf, which we now struggle to replace in defence, after taking 456 killed, after taking 5000 wounded, all of which are soldiers that YOUR Veterans department didnt have to bury or give long aftercare to, now the mind numbing answer from the Tanknet cheap seats is 'well you can continue the war on your own terms.' Thats after giving hundreds of stormshadow stand off weapons, whilst your President was dithering whether ATACMS was going to start WW3 or not, and sending Challenger Tanks, Starstreak missiles, NLAWS, even Sea King Helicopters, whilst your President struggled to remember Britain even existed, and starved us of a trade deal that might actually allow us to spend the amounts on defence that Europe deserves. After 20 years in the sandbox didnt we earn that at least?

So no, Im not going to take any finger wagging from you guys. The reason why Ukraine has not won is purely down to your utter disinterest in letting them win. You have the worlds largest defence budget, you have stockpiles of weapons coming out of your ears, and you are terrified, utterly terrified  to use it, or even let others use it. Its not about letting the Europeans take a lead. its not even about cost. its about you turning into a bunch of goddamn moral cowards overnight, and just like Chamberlain, continually justify it in the most bizarre fashion that its someone elses fault.

 

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

20 hours ago, seahawk said:

There are plenty of wars, still not everyone of them seems to be equally important. Why are wars in Europe more important to the US than wars in Africa? Now if you look at Chinese influence and valuable raw materials, many of those conflicts are a bigger threat to the US economy than the Ukraine.

Sure Europe might look at this from a different point of view, but why should the US care. US interests must come first.

Because Africa doesnt have two beans to rub together, and Europe remains one of America's best markets. Same as it ever was.

US isnt really interested in anything, because its still in the dithery honeymoon of Pax Trumpiana, where everything is for sale, and everything is possible. Here is a prediction, it wont be this rosy in 2029.

[seahawk]

Is it not more the case of the US being the best market for the Europeans?

[RETAC21]

3 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Is it not more the case of the US being the best market for the Europeans?

Depends: The trade in goods balance in 2023 between the EU Member States and the United States is shown in Table 1c. It shows that 20 EU Member States had a trade surplus with the United States. The largest surplus was held by Germany (€85 800 million), followed by Italy (€42 093 million) and Ireland (€31 098 million). There were seven EU Member States that had a trade deficit with the United States. The largest deficit was held by the Netherlands (€34 692 million), followed by Spain (€5 705 million) and Belgium (€4 204 million).

Ireland you ask? well: Ireland boasts one of the world’s lowest corporate tax rates at just 12.5%, making it a desirable location for active businesses in Europe as well as the rest of the world. These tax incentives mean that Ireland has one of the lowest statutory corporate tax locations. This has encouraged over one thousand multinational companies to choose the Emerald Isle as their European base.

US companies play a huge role in the Irish pharma industry. Many of the world’s largest US Pharma companies have multiple premises around our country:

Johnson & Johnson has been operating in Ireland for over 80 years. The company employs almost 3,000 people in Ireland with locations in Dublin, Limerick and Cork.

Pfizer employs over 3,300 people in Ireland in 7 locations including Dublin and Cork. Pfizer joined Ireland in 1969. More than 7 billion dollars has been invested into Pfizer’s Irish organisation in its 50 years here.

MSD has locations in Dublin, Cork, Carlow and Tipperary. These locations account for almost 60% of the company’s global top 20 products.

Amgen joined Ireland in the 1990s. In 2010 they purchased the Pfizer building in Dun Laoghaire where they now employ over 450 staff. There is an additional location in Santry (North Dublin).

Abbvie is spread over five sites in Ireland including locations in Sligo, Cork and Dublin employing over 600 people.
Lilly has had a presence in Ireland since the 1970s. The company currently employs over 800 Irish people in locations around Dublin and Cork.

Gilead currently employs around 300 people in Dublin and Cork, these locations are responsible for distributing the company’s products to the European Union.

Bristol-Myers Squibb has been operating in Ireland since the 1960s and currently employs around 600 staff in Ireland in locations in Dublin and Shannon.

Abbott employs over 3,200 people across 11 sites in Ireland. Some of their locations include Clonmel, Cootehill, Donegal, Longford and Sligo.

Biogen employs around 600 staff within their Dublin office in Ireland.

Stryker employs over 2,000 employees across four locations in Ireland. The company joined Ireland in 1998 and has locations in Cork and Limerick.

Regeneron opened in Dublin in 2013 with their very first facility outside of the US. The company currently employs over 800 Irish staff.

Baxter employs over 1600 staff across five Irish sites in Dublin, Belfast and Mayo.

Finally, Alexion opened its first Irish facility in 2013 and now employs over 300 people across Dublin and Athlone.

[Stuart Galbraith]

These arguments always remind me of the 1970's, when US unions were complaining about the influx of Cars and Bikes from Japan, and how it was decimating the US Auto industry. Quite so. What they didnt mention at the time (and as one Union member conceded some 20 years after armageddon) is the US car industry wasnt building anything anyone wanted, ergo they imported cheap vehicles that fulfilled what hey needed. The earliest example of that was the VW Beetle, at a time when all Motown wanted to sell people were v8 powered barges. A trend that got all the more unjustifiable when the oil shocks of the 70's came along.

So the same is happening again. Its deeply sad for American workders. But whom do you blame for that, Europeans for making what Americans want, or American businessmen not getting ahead of the curve to provide it themselves?

 

 

[Yama]

16 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So the same is happening again. 

This time it's happening in Europe too, Chinese EV industry is leaving us to dust.

[RETAC21]

16 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

These arguments always remind me of the 1970's, when US unions were complaining about the influx of Cars and Bikes from Japan, and how it was decimating the US Auto industry. Quite so. What they didnt mention at the time (and as one Union member conceded some 20 years after armageddon) is the US car industry wasnt building anything anyone wanted, ergo they imported cheap vehicles that fulfilled what hey needed. The earliest example of that was the VW Beetle, at a time when all Motown wanted to sell people were v8 powered barges. A trend that got all the more unjustifiable when the oil shocks of the 70's came along.

So the same is happening again. Its deeply sad for American workders. But whom do you blame for that, Europeans for making what Americans want, or American businessmen not getting ahead of the curve to provide it themselves?

 

This is not quite the same, thought it rhymes. When Trump eventually imposes his tariffs on EU imports, the prices will go up for US consumers for products which aren't produced in the US and which are cheaper to be produced outside of the US, so the US located producer are going to be unable to compete, but US big firms will profit anyway.

[RETAC21]

1 minute ago, Yama said:

This time it's happening in Europe too, Chinese EV industry is leaving us to dust.

That's totally self inflicted. EU wanted to move away from combustion engines and the Chinese filled the void, but it's not driven by the market, it's political.

[Roman Alymov]

Meanwhile, while nobody watching, President Zelensky imposed sanctions on President Poroshenko (his predicessor and main political competitor)

Ukraine Targets Zelenskiy’s Critic Poroshenko With Sanctions - Bloomberg

Ukraine Targets Zelenskiy’s Critic Poroshenko With Sanctions
By Aliaksandr Kudrytski
13 Feb 2025 г. at 12:03 GMT+3

Ukraine sanctioned the country’s opposition leader and former President Petro Poroshenko as the likelihood of an uncomfortable peace deal with Russia grows, setting the stage for new elections.

The country’s Security and Defense Council, headed by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, published a list of people targeted by new sanctions on Thursday, including Poroshenko. The restrictions indefinitely block his assets in Ukraine, limiting his business operations.

Zelenskiy first announced sanctions on “those who undermined Ukraine’s national security” on Wednesday evening, though did not name Poroshenko at the time. Shortly after, Poroshenko called the upcoming sanctions politically motivated, unconstitutional and a “colossal blow” to Ukraine’s internal unity.
The move comes at a delicate moment for Ukraine, with US President Donald Trump attempting to broker a deal with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over the country’s fate.

The prospect of a ceasefire could make elections more likely. Zelenskiy, whose term in office formally ended in May, has pushed back against allies’ demands that Ukraine hold a vote, saying the country cannot do so under martial law.

Zelenskiy’s popularity with Ukrainians has ebbed in the years since Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile Poroshenko, whom he defeated in a 2019 presidential election, has remained active on the political stage.

The ex-president’s popularity has grown, according to a poll released Thursday by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology. It showed Poroshenko’s bloc garnered the highest approval rating of all groups in parliament at 35%. Zelenskiy’s party was the most unpopular, with 61% of Ukrainians saying it hampered the country’s development.

Yet Poroshenko faced criticism for signing the ill-fated Minsk agreements with Russian-backed proxy forces in the country’s east. Zelenskiy’s Wednesday announcement of sanctions came on the anniversary of the second Minsk agreement in 2015.

The ex-president was also targeted during the early stages of Zelenskiy’s presidency. He returned to Ukraine a month after Russia’s full-scale invasion to face charges, which he denies, that he facilitated the coal trade with Russian proxy forces in Ukraine’s east.

Also included in the sanctions were the tycoons Ihor Kolomoisky, his business partner Hennadiy Boholyubov and industrialist Kostyatin Zhevago who successfully fought off France’s request to extradite him to Ukraine. and the pro-Russian Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. Poroshenko is the only one among them who still remains active in the country.

P.S. Also, President Poroshenko is stripped  off all state awards "and other forms of  honor" (so he is no more "President", just citizen.  Among sanctions applied, is ban on use of "radio frequences in Ukraine" (so now he can't use mobile phonem WiFi etc)  https://t.me/olegtsarov/23157

Edited February 13 by Roman Alymov

[Yama]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

That's totally self inflicted. EU wanted to move away from combustion engines and the Chinese filled the void, but it's not driven by the market, it's political.

Well, the idea was that European car manufacturers would become forerunners on EV segment, turned out that they were technologically unable to do that.

[Stefan Kotsch]

4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

EU wanted to move away from combustion engines and the Chinese filled the void, but it's not driven by the market, it's political.

Yes, of course it's a political decision. This is nothing more than the binding obligation to equip the vehicles with catalysts. At that time there was a huge outcry of the rejection. Who today wants cities where cars drive without a catalyst? 

(I saw that in Ekaterienburg in Russia  - the air was caustic yellow and bad) 

[RETAC21]

3 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Yes, of course it's a political decision. This is nothing more than the binding obligation to equip the vehicles with catalysts. At that time there was a huge outcry of the rejection. Who today wants cities where cars drive without a catalyst? 

(I saw that in Ekaterienburg in Russia  - the air was caustic yellow and bad) 

Problem with that is, that, without market pressure and with open borders with competitors (China and the US), European manufacturers have been caught wrong footed handling a market advantage to the Chinese in exchange for nothing.

In contrast to the installation of catalyzers, switching to full EVs require a downgrade for most users, who will own just one vehicle and for whom an EV means they cannot use it for long range travel. If forced to buy 2 cars, it makes sense to make the second one a cheap Chinese model to use in daily displacements rather than a less versatile, expensive European model.

[Stefan Kotsch]

18 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

it makes sense to make the second one a cheap Chinese

If I properly interpret many Russian reader comments, the Chinese electric cars are not very popular. It doesn't have to stay that way, but that will take time.

Ok, the fact that European industry screwed it up is true.

Edited February 13 by Stefan Kotsch

[Roman Alymov]

FiberFPVs vs. tank bridgelayers (ABLV M60 and Biber)

https://t.me/milinfolive/141892?single

[mandeb48]

Question mainly for Roman or someone else who has contact with someone on the front. How does the rhetoric of negotiations influences the morale of the combatants?

Because it shouldn't be very motivating for the combatants on both sides that it doesn't matter if they capture a village or not if in the end Donald  decides where the border will go.

Edited February 13 by mandeb48

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Question mainly for Roman or someone else who has contact with someone on the front. How does the rhetoric of negotiations influences the morale of the combatants?

Because it shouldn't be very motivating for the combatants on both sides that it doesn't matter if they capture a village or not if in the end Donald  decides where the border will go.

All this debates about "dirty deal" are not new for pro-Russians (after all, they have long and painful experience of "Minsk agreements"). Of course they are demotivating, but since it is not new factor - i can't say frontline soldiers are especially demotivated now, unlike what was before (they are Russians and they are perfectly aware of the nature of pro-Western regime in Kremlin).

    On pro-Ukr side, reportedly UkrArmy command is now blocking Internet access for frontline troops to prevent them to learn the news.

[Roman Alymov]

P.S. Couple of fresh quotes from Strelkov

"I predict that our militarypolitical position will continue to "fade" for some time (until about spring; or rather, until the AFU attempts to seize the initiative after the reserves are deployed). 

On the one hand, our leaders will actively demonstrate their "readiness for reconciliation," on the other, they will "bargain fiercely behind the scenes," trying to somehow reduce the initial demands of the United States in their favor, while preventing Trump from moving to an open confrontation on the side of Ukraine.

At the front, meanwhile, efforts will continue to "improve negotiating positions," which in practice mean continuing to "push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Donbass" (in my personal opinion, this is an extremely "expensive" exercise in terms of human lives and equipment, the loss of which is in no way justified by real successes). 

In turn, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue their active defense during February– March–April, systematically retreating from "inconvenient ledges" and firmly holding those sectors of the front that their command and military-political leadership consider to be the most important. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will do everything possible to protect and increase their strategic reserves in order to try again in the spring to achieve major success in one of the areas in order to further "call on NATO allies" based on the newly achieved successes." ( https://t.me/strelkovii/6972 )

[Roman Alymov]

"In short:
— I don't believe in a "truce" at all — it won't be until at least the summer (and even then — if the Ukrainian Armed Forces "break their teeth" by the summer, and not the other way around);
— the pathetic attempts of some of our "VIP officials" to conceal the fact of a strategic defeat in Ukraine... will be met with complete indifference by the population - most of them don't even care how this war ends — with victory or defeat. And no one thinks about the consequences — "everything is as always." Nevertheless, the expectations of the "peace soon" will not be fulfilled.;
— the revival of "liberalis on salary" (the opening of the  <new>Yeltsin Center <in Moscow> , etc.) is expected and logical: within the framework of the eternal "swing policy", a new "movement towards universal values" is very likely (since the "patriotic card" turned out to be so unsuccessfully and incompetently used). But even this will not help (again, because "no one will forget or forgive anything" - from the side of "dear Western partners." — the more compliance there is, the more they will "strangle" us.
Sincerely, I. V. Girkin
12.02.25" ( https://t.me/strelkovii/6973 )