Roman Alymov Posted February 4 Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: He probably wont. Apparently there is some 2 Billion Dollars that was involved in a shadly deal with the Turks that the Europeans have frozen. As others have pointed out, suppose the US got that, and used it to buy arms for Ukraine? Everyone wins, except the Russians, and frankly who cares what they think. I think between the Europeans and the Russians, the Ukrainians are going to go the distance. But yes, Id be the first to admit, quite a lot depends on how crazy Donald Trump is. It remains difficult to quantify. Probably you mean USD 2bln to continue constructing NPP in Turkey Russia is building on own expence, to please Sultan. No, this money can't be "used it to buy arms for Ukraine" as it is NPP parts and installations produced in Russia, outside of this project it is just scrap metal. It is like "Russian assets" frozen in Western banks - de-facto just debt notes left from Russian oil and gas provided to West for free (and consumed long ago). US is printing USD 1 trillion every 100 days, they do not need USD 2 billions, they could just print them. Production capability is limitation, not ability to create more digital "money".
Stefan Kotsch Posted February 4 Posted February 4 9 hours ago, glenn239 said: 15 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said: Source? Military Summary Channel, 1st installment for 3 Feb. Ok, a channel allegedly from Belarus. Thanks! A little background: https://www.academia.edu/106146146/The_Military_Summary_Channel_in_Belarus
Roman Alymov Posted February 4 Posted February 4 14 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said: Ok, a channel allegedly from Belarus. Thanks! A little background: https://www.academia.edu/106146146/The_Military_Summary_Channel_in_Belarus See above, factually this information is correct (but conclusions of it could be discussed - above mentioned Alexey Arestovich went as far as declaring it the day Ukraine lost the war)
seahawk Posted February 4 Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said: Currently pro-Russians are numerically inferrior to pro-Ukr forces on the front line, so i see no reason why "pro-Ukrainian regime will collapse" in any visible perpective if they still have millions of men hiding from conscription but rounded up and thrown into meatgrinder. With current attrition rate, they could last years. The only way to change situation is fighting real war, with destruction of bridges over Dniper, stopping oil and gas supply and all switching off electric power network. The even bigger forced conscription would be the key, as it would create stronger anti-Ukrainian feelings and in the end lead to the collapse of the Ukraine. Real war, would be the other option and it should mean using all available weapons, but imho Russian victory can only be lost in Moscow, if the elites surrender to the West.
Roman Alymov Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) Papers of another Briton KIA on the frontline, Walker Christopher Edward. Folded paper in Ukr is about him being on 30 day leave on health reasons (after injury), to Salisbury, England. https://t.me/anna_news/75906 Edited February 4 by Roman Alymov
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 4 Posted February 4 5 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: Probably you mean USD 2bln to continue constructing NPP in Turkey Russia is building on own expence, to please Sultan. No, this money can't be "used it to buy arms for Ukraine" as it is NPP parts and installations produced in Russia, outside of this project it is just scrap metal. It is like "Russian assets" frozen in Western banks - de-facto just debt notes left from Russian oil and gas provided to West for free (and consumed long ago). US is printing USD 1 trillion every 100 days, they do not need USD 2 billions, they could just print them. Production capability is limitation, not ability to create more digital "money". As I understand it, the money transitioned through the EU, at which point it was seized, and it most definately can be spent, since its already being discussed.
alejandro_ Posted February 4 Posted February 4 23 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: P.S. This TV report said Romanenko have left school to trade school, so probably he was 2 years younger - so died at 51? https://youtu.be/i8BAecGS1a4?feature=shared P.P.S. Born 01.01.1973 - see date on gravestone, he was one week short of 51 https://youtu.be/ZyljuRJ-_o0?feature=shared Thank you, the biographies are also added after a few days to Ukrainian wikipedia. I will update the table.
TrustMe Posted February 5 Posted February 5 US and Russia wants new Ukraine elections. If they vote to elect someone in promising to end the war it will be over for Ukraine. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-freak-out-us-russia-push-election/
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 5 Posted February 5 Yeah, thats not going to happen, not without a ceasefire. Its utterly impractical, and besides, a vote without the Russian dominated areas is going to deliver Zelensky, so its back to square one. Just Putin trying to sow mayhem, and a Whitehouse dumb enough to let them.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 22 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: As I understand it, the money transitioned through the EU, at which point it was seized, From "Росатом" прокомментировал ситуацию с задержанием средств для АЭС "Аккую" - РИА Новости, 03.02.2025 "ISTANBUL, February 3 - RIA Novosti, Zaman Ramazanov. Rosatom State Corporation is counting on resolving the situation with funds unfairly detained under the influence of third parties for the Akkuyu NPP project in Turkey, these finances have been used and are being used for project financing, payments to contractors, and various payments, the corporation's press service told RIA Novosti. The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that part of the funds that Russia allocated to Turkey for the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in 2022 were allegedly intended to create an "offshore dollar reserve" in Turkey, with which some Russian firms could receive money from the nuclear power plant without the mediation of American banks. According to the newspaper, we are talking about companies that, like Akkuyu, have accounts in the Turkish bank Ziraat. According to the newspaper, the Russian side tried to transfer five billion dollars to Turkey through JPMorgan and Citi banks, but JPMorgan froze one of the transfers in the amount of two billion dollars. According to the newspaper, the US Department of Justice considered the possibility of seizing the funds, but did not do so, fearing that such a step would greatly harm US diplomatic relations with Turkey. "All funds previously sent to the Republic of Turkey in the interests of the Akkuyu NPP project have been used and are being used for project financing, payments to contractors, social and other mandatory payments in the country," Rosatom told RIA Novosti. "As for the amount unfairly delayed under the influence of third parties, we expect this situation to be resolved, after which the funds will also be used exclusively for the implementation of the project, the continuation of construction, and the implementation of all mandatory payments," the press service stressed. The construction of Turkey's first Akkuyu nuclear power plant has become the largest joint Russian-Turkish project. It is planned that after the commissioning of all four power units with advanced Russian VVER-1200 reactors with a capacity of 1,200 MW, each station will generate about 35 billion kW.per year and cover up to 10% of Turkey's electricity needs." Not surprising, confiscation of this money can't be implemented without creating troubles with Erdogan of Turkey who is currently in process of getting FREE (constructed on Russian taxpayer's expense) NPP. Note this construction is extremely unpopular in Russia, as it is considered as money stolen from Russians and given to Turks From ЭКСКЛЮЗИВ «Мы же строим и мы же платим». Эксперт.. | Телеканал Царьград | ВКонтакте ".......However, the first Minister of State Security of the DPR, Andrei Pinchuk, a political commentator from Tsargrad, commented on this difficult situation for our readers.: "In this regard, I have one question. Up to this point, we had been told a lot that our nuclear energy sector was self-sufficient and very profitable. Up until that moment, I believed that if we build something for someone, then we get paid money. And suddenly it turns out to be some kind of monstrous situation from my point of view, in which we are building a nuclear power plant and we are transferring this monstrous money for this construction! Isn't this just a scheme to withdraw more national money? Because the scheme that we pay for something that is being built not somewhere in our country, but somewhere in Turkey, does not fit into our mind. And this is no less than 2 billion Russian dollars. Wouldn't it be easier to build facilities for this money on the territory of Russia? Why are we not being paid for what we are building, but we are paing for what we are building?" See also fury and flame in comments
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Yeah, thats not going to happen, not without a ceasefire. Its utterly impractical, and besides, a vote without the Russian dominated areas is going to deliver Zelensky, so its back to square one. Just Putin trying to sow mayhem, and a Whitehouse dumb enough to let them. Tell it to Alexey Arestovich who is pretending to be running for President on this elections, or former UkrArmy commander (now ambassador to London) Zaluzhny who is considered to be the most likely winer.
Stefan Kotsch Posted February 5 Posted February 5 It is also a joke on the 'stairs of history' that Selensky is denied the legitimacy of his presidency by Putin. Selensky is chosen regularly. And the suspension of the elections is constitutional. At Putins own request, however, the Duma has the constitution changed several times in order Putin to be able to rule further.
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said: Tell it to Alexey Arestovich who is pretending to be running for President on this elections, or former UkrArmy commander (now ambassador to London) Zaluzhny who is considered to be the most likely winer. How about I tell it to a guy living in the country that can have any leader they like, as long as its Putin? Will you listen and understand? Regrettably I doubt it.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 57 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said: It is also a joke on the 'stairs of history' that Selensky is denied the legitimacy of his presidency by Putin. Selensky is chosen regularly. And the suspension of the elections is constitutional. That is debatable, but after all who cares 57 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said: At Putins own request, however, the Duma has the constitution changed several times in order Putin to be able to rule further. If you (i mean your political class) are unhappy with Putin legitimacy - please feel free to declare him illegitimate and isolate him. It will be the best possible gift for Russia, as it will eliminate possibility of surrender "collective Putin" is dreaming about.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: How about I tell it to a guy living in the country that can have any leader they like, as long as its Putin? Will you listen and understand? Regrettably I doubt it. For good or for bad, Putin (personaly) is still the most popular politician in Russia. We could debate if it is good or bad, is it result of main stream media support and so on - but it is reality. Personally, i would like ro see Strelkov as President of Russia, but even i admit it is impossible even if he is released from prison right now. Edited February 5 by Roman Alymov
ink Posted February 5 Posted February 5 On 2/4/2025 at 9:32 AM, Roman Alymov said: Few people understand Russia (Russian Federation) is not even close to having real "war economy" now. ~10 times more people work in construction industry then in Army (not on frontline but entire Aemy). `~300 000 men are working as couriers in Moscow alone. Huge money are wasted on expencive decorations, paving streets with polished granite and so on - while frontline units are de-facto fighting on crowdfunded money, with crowdfunded drones, radios, SUVs etc. Russian state is ignoring the war. Yeah, I understand that, of course, but economies are fragile things at the best of times, and a protracted war can have all kinds of knock-on effects that are hard to predict. Russia is definitely financing the war in part from federal reserves. That's probably not sustainable in the long term. It's basically a game of chicken where your opponent is a brick wall. A war economy certainly wouldn't be sustainable for anything but a very short period.
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 5 Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: For good or for bad, Putin (personaly) is still the most popular politician in Russia. We could debate if it is good or bad, is it result of main stream media support and so on - but it is reality. Personally, i would like ro see Strelkov as President of Russia, but even i admit it is impossible even if he is released from prison right now. How would anyone know, seeing as he doesnt allow anyone to run against himself? Its an assertion that is impossible to prove. Strelkov would be hilarious. And it wont happen for precisely the same reason the Russian Elite embarked on the Ukraine war as you rightly identified. They dont want change. Strelkov would be bad for us, but he would be far worse for the corpulent mafia elite that have Russia in their maw.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, ink said: Yeah, I understand that, of course, but economies are fragile things at the best of times, and a protracted war can have all kinds of knock-on effects that are hard to predict. Russia is definitely financing the war in part from federal reserves. That's probably not sustainable in the long term. It's basically a game of chicken where your opponent is a brick wall. A war economy certainly wouldn't be sustainable for anything but a very short period. What exactly federal reserves? Foreign currency reserves are stolen by West (or, better say, they always existed on paper only as resources were de-facto given to West for free), trade with China and India is with positive trade balance (meaning RF is selling them more then buying from them, so no reserves spent), physical gold stock reached its peak in 2023 and still stable.... Anyway, it would be nice to see our Gov at least cutting unnecessary spendings (like above mentioned paving the street with polished stone). By the way it is strong debate among economists in Russia as if it is reasonable to have too much reserves "International reserves: changes are urgently needed! Alexey Dolzhenkov Special correspondent of Monocle No. 6, February 3, 2025, 06:00 The approach to the formation and use of gold and foreign exchange reserves in Russia is hopelessly outdated. They should not only regulate the currency liquidity in the country, but also work for the Russian economy. IGOR SHAPOSHNIKOV The gold and foreign exchange (also known as international) reserves of the Russian Federation have been frozen for almost three years, and discussions periodically arise around them.: one minute they are trying to confiscate them, the next they cannot find them, the next they are surprised that their blocking has not affected Russia in any way. Now there are rumors that they may be unfrozen. However, in fact, the probability of this is extremely low. In addition, without lifting sanctions from the Central Bank, the Moscow Stock Exchange and at least some of our banks, there will be little benefit from a formal unfreezing of gold reserves. And fast transactions with dollars without access to SWIFT are still impossible. Of course, American banks may want to join the Russian SPFS, but it's hard to believe. But regardless of whether our gold reserves are unblocked or not, the landscape of the global financial system has changed dramatically for Russia, and it's high time to figure out exactly what international reserves the country needs now. Or at least start a discussion about it — for some reason, no one has yet asked themselves what to do if our gold reserves are nevertheless unfrozen, if they are confiscated, and right now, when we continue to form them out of habit, except now in yuan and gold. Reserve currency for a rainy day Let's start with the numbers. As of January 1, 2025, the international reserves of the Russian Federation in terms of dollars reached 609 billion. Of these, 385.6 billion were in foreign currency, 23 billion were in the SDR (special drawing rights of the IMF) account, 4.8 billion were in the reserve position in the IMF, and, finally, 195.7 billion were in monetary gold. In 2024, the total volume of Russian gold reserves increased by 1.75%. Is $600 billion a lot or a little? According to the definition given in the IMF documents, a country's international reserves are external assets that are freely available to monetary authorities and controlled by them to finance the balance of payments, conduct interventions in foreign exchange markets to influence the exchange rate and for other relevant purposes (such as maintaining confidence in the currency and the economy or as a basis for external loans). Simply put, such reserves are needed as insurance in case the country does not have enough currency to purchase imported products, make payments on foreign debt, and also to stabilize the exchange rate of the national currency, including through currency interventions. There are two points worth clarifying here. First, foreign debt refers to the entire total debt of the country, not just the national debt. Secondly, central banks, if non-state companies lack funds to pay for imports or repay loans in foreign currency, do not spend gold reserves on them. But they can provide loans in the required currency (usually to banks, not directly to companies) or sell the currency on the domestic market so that those who need it can buy it there, while simultaneously stabilizing the exchange rate of the national currency. In our case, the Bank of Russia prefers to use repo operations. According to Evgeny Goryunov, head of the Monetary Policy Laboratory at the Gaidar Institute, there are two main reasons why states accumulate significant amounts of foreign exchange reserves. The first is to be able to stabilize the exchange rate if the inflow of foreign currency into the market decreases sharply. The second is to maintain the competitiveness of exporters by underestimating the real exchange rate. Let's explain how the second motive is implemented: the foreign currency is added to the reserve, thereby its value increases, and the exchange rate of the domestic currency decreases accordingly. This is the paradigm we've been living in for the last two decades. Interestingly, in the world, almost complete abandonment of currency interventions to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, like that of our Central Bank, is a very rare phenomenon. Oleg Solntsev, head of the Monetary Policy and Banking Sector Analysis Department at the CMAKP, notes that even with a freely floating exchange rate, central banks can carry out short-term currency interventions in special, stressful conditions; in particular, the Bank of Japan does this regularly, the ECB and the Fed do it occasionally. "The Bank of Russia has engaged in currency interventions for the only time in the last five years — at the end of February 2022. Then there was the freezing of Russian gold reserves, and after the transition to the yuan, our Central Bank did not intervene, even when it would seem worthwhile to do so," adds the representative of the Central Bank. Gold reserves size: how much to hang in grams There are many methods for calculating the sufficiency of international reserves, but they all show the same thing: Russian gold reserves significantly exceed sufficient reserves. The latest calculation of the Central Bank's standards is for the end of the third quarter of 2024: on October 1, only 14.6% of Russian reserves would be enough to finance three—month imports, and 41.5% of gold reserves would be enough to finance 20% of liabilities included in the broad money supply (M2X). As a reminder, M2X also includes foreign currency deposits. The regulator stopped publishing the remaining sufficiency parameters with the beginning of its review, but for guidance, you can look at the indicators for October 1, 2021. In that case, 24.2% of Russia's international reserves would be sufficient to meet Guidotti's criterion (payments on foreign debt in the coming 12 months), and 38.8% of Reddy's criterion (3 months of imports plus 12 months of foreign debt). And to meet the IMF's composite indicator (ARA EM), which assumes a massive outflow of funds from the country while realizing a number of risks, 41% of gold reserves would be enough. We coped with the worst crisis of 2022 using less than 10% of our (also partially frozen) reserves. The Ministry of Finance uses its part of reserves (NWF liquidity) to balance the budget and smooth out medium-term fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. As you can see, even by the most stringent criteria, about 40% of the current volume of international reserves would be enough for the country. Why recruit more and where did the additional gold reserves come from? After 2014, the Central Bank switched to a floating exchange rate and practically did not conduct currency interventions, either in one direction or the other. To begin with, we note that there is no upper limit for international reserves, and, accordingly, there are no restrictions on their recruitment either. Further, the Central Bank is quite actively buying gold. In particular, from January 1, 2015 to January 1, 2025, the volume of this precious metal in gold reserves increased from 38.8 million to 75 million net troy ounces, and its price increased from 46.1 billion to 195.7 billion dollars. In addition, the Bank of Russia successfully manages gold and foreign exchange assets: according to the latest available data, from July 2020 to June 2021, gold reserves under the management of the Central Bank added $ 24.3 billion. Graph 1 Our gold reserves have long exceeded the size of the external debt The Bank of Russia Our gold reserves have long exceeded the size of the external debt Bank of Russia In addition, it should be borne in mind that, although the Central Bank did not intervene in the foreign exchange market, the Ministry of Finance was engaged in this. Recall that the liquid currency component (and recently gold) of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) is included in Russia's international reserves. According to a recent report from the ministry, as of January 1, 2025, the volume of liquid assets of the NWF (yuan, gold and a small amount of rubles) in terms of dollars amounted to 37.5 billion. Collusion of the authorities Formally, the Ministry of Finance conducts currency purchase and sale operations as part of the implementation of the budget rule, and although it does this to reduce the dependence of budget revenues on energy prices, in fact, this behavior of the department affects the foreign exchange market. And in the long run, the impact is so noticeable that some economists are convinced: Russian gold reserves served not so much as a safety cushion as a tool for removing excess currency from the domestic market to maintain a cheap ruble in the interests of the budget and exporters. According to Alexander Shirov, director of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the 2000s, when the economy was relatively small, the use of currency coming into the country from exports was fully limited by the lack of appropriate production infrastructure, but after 2020 there was no such problem. "Apparently, the build—up of reserves had two goals," the scientist argues. — The first is the formation of reserves in case of a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. The second is to limit the growth of budget expenditures. A side effect of the second direction was the re-weakening of the ruble, which, of course, had a positive impact on nominal budget revenues." Oleg Solntsev says that the Ministry of Finance uses its share of reserves (the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund), unlike the Central Bank, but not to overcome shocks, but for medium-term budget balancing and smoothing fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. But the representative of the CMACP believes that this is in the interests not only of the budget and exporters, but also of those who compete with imports. At the same time, it is possible to increase the predictability of a key parameter for the economy — the exchange rate. According to Oleg Solntsev, with our historically strong balance of payments, such an approach seems logical to reduce the risk of developing the "Dutch disease" in the economy. "With an excessively strong national currency, sectors of the economy that are not related to exports are starting to bend. The authorities fought the “Dutch disease" as best they could, but they failed to prevent it. All the same, there was a loss of links in the production chains within the country and their replacement with imports, which we thought would be stable," the expert concludes. Lost liquidity So, there was a certain logic in the actions of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance, and they cared not only about the budget and exporters, but also about the economy as a whole. However, in 2022, a completely new stage began in our country's relations with the global economy. In particular, gold reserves were blocked, the Russian Federation lost access to the western part of the international financial infrastructure and, in addition, became the undisputed champion in terms of the number of sanctions imposed. As a result, we lost access not only to part of our reserves, but also to the London gold market with its warehouse system. Some of the countries' precious metal reserves were stored there, and it was precisely because of this that gold remained a liquid asset: you know, paying off foreign debt or imports with real bullion is problematic. Currently, the liquidity of gold as a payment instrument for Russia has decreased significantly. In addition, due to problems with payments, even the yuan is not completely liquid for us: many Chinese banks are afraid of secondary sanctions. Since high liquidity is extremely important for international reserves, the situation for Russia in this regard is far from ideal. However, it is difficult to call it hopeless. As Oleg Solntsev reminds us, in addition to London, there are other world centers — Mumbai, Dubai, Shanghai. "We may be particularly interested in Shanghai, as the legislation has been liberalized there. After proper refining, Russian gold is quite sold in China. The volume of precious metals transactions on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is comparable to that of London, and the yuan received as a result of the sale can be used to buy the necessary goods. It is far from high liquidity, but it is quite a working scheme," says the expert. "Such a system is unsuitable for intervention in the foreign exchange market, but theoretically, if necessary, it can be used to close fundamental imbalances in foreign trade." In addition, a portion of gold reserves consisting of yuan can serve as a damper for the domestic foreign exchange market in the event of any shocks. The CMACP representative suggests that market participants, with the help of payment agent organizations, will find an opportunity to exchange these yuan for goods, even taking into account payment problems: yuan can still be used, albeit at additional cost. Andrey Stolyarov, Deputy Head of the Department of Financial Market Infrastructure at the HSE Faculty of Economics, confirms that gold and the Chinese yuan are less liquid. However, even if the precious metal cannot be sold simply and quickly and Russia cannot conduct transactions in London, this does not change the very nature of gold as a protective asset. According to the expert, the situation is similar with the yuan: yes, there are restrictions on its use, but China is now Russia's main trading partner. "By and large (whether this is correct or not), it is through the yuan that the Central Bank can conduct operations on the open market," the expert recalls. "Ten years ago, the issue of using foreign exchange reserves and their structure mattered, but now we have what we have — a very limited range of tools that can be used to regulate Russia's position on the world market and purchase critical imports," says Stolyarov. "Perhaps a discussion about what reserves are needed for now and where to invest them is useful, but completely abandoning the insurance mechanism is the same radical idea as twenty years ago — accumulating these reserves and investing them at minimal interest so that our gold reserves can then be used to purchase weapons against the Russian army." New Russia — new gold reserves These considerations lead us to the question of what gold reserves Russia needs in very difficult modern conditions. We can stay within the framework of the previous paradigm by changing dollars to yuan, increase the share of gold and accept the lower liquidity of our international assets. Evgeny Goryunov notes that Russian reserves were collected not only and not so much for reasons of ensuring the stability of the balance of payments, but for the sake of smoothing oil and gas budget revenues. In his opinion, this motive for accumulating foreign reserves has not lost its relevance, and the size of such a fund may well be impressive: the amount of $ 600 billion here does not look unambiguously overestimated. Alexander Shirov believes that it makes sense to try to form reserves in the amount of annual imports or more only in conditions of excessive foreign exchange inflows, when the domestic economy cannot use them for production or other reasons. At the same time, ensuring the annual volume of critical imports (goods that are important for life support and are not produced in the country) can be used as one of the criteria for sufficient reserves. Gold reserves should work as a reserve for solving internal problems, both through development institutions and directly through public procurement and interventions. Graph 2 Also, our gold reserves greatly exceed all generally accepted reserve adequacy indicators. The Bank of Russia and our gold reserves greatly exceed all generally accepted reserve adequacy indicators. Bank of Russia However, not all economists agree with this statement of the question. According to Oleg Solntsev, back in the 2000s, CMAKP specialists proposed using excess reserves to fund leasing of equipment, rolling stock, and aircraft; purchase patents, and purchase intellectual property rights abroad — to the extent that they do not compete with Russian ones. It was planned to do this through development institutions or special state-owned leasing companies. Such a step, on the one hand, would avoid excessive strengthening of the ruble, since the currency would not enter the domestic market. On the other hand, it could strengthen the Russian economy and increase its competitiveness. In particular, with the implementation of such a scheme, we would have no problems with aircraft leasing. This logically implies the answer to the question of what to do if the frozen gold reserves are unblocked. "It is better to exchange them for something else, but not to sell them on the domestic market. It can be used either to purchase non—competitive imports and intellectual property, or to fund foreign direct investment, which will allow us to complete the production chains of domestic producers," Oleg Solntsev is confident. As for the gold part of gold reserves, the expert suggests using it to create an alternative system of international settlements linked to precious metals. For example, to issue a gold stablecoin, which the CMAKP has been talking about for three years, naturally, only for cross—country settlements so that it does not affect the domestic market. "However, in order for this to work, in addition to the stablecoin itself, many more activities are needed. And time has already been lost in many ways, besides, after the change of the American administration, it will become more difficult to implement such projects," Oleg Solntsev states. Traditional gold reserves are also needed, but in a limited amount in case of an emergency — to cover the gap in the balance of payments or to purchase something from critical imports. Moreover, they should be as diverse as possible: not only gold and yuan, but also, for example, dirhams, and even, perhaps, the Indonesian rupiah. We need them within the accepted standards of sufficiency to ensure three months of survival in a critical situation. "In my opinion, gold reserves should work as a kind of reserve for solving internal problems," the CMACP representative is convinced. — Through development institutions or directly, through public procurement and interventions in the foreign exchange market. Somewhere they have to close gaps in production chains, and somewhere they have to support Russian TNCs. We need corporate entities in the external economic circuit that will help the economy grow. Gold reserves could be used to finance the formation of such companies — naturally, on a return basis, through development institutions. In parallel, this will expand our sphere of influence in the world." Международные резервы: срочно требуются перемены! (3 февраля 2025) | Monocle.ru
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: How would anyone know, seeing as he doesnt allow anyone to run against himself? Its an assertion that is impossible to prove. Popularuty is relatively easy to neasure by regular surveys. Actually, all the battles around elections here in Russia are not about whom people will vote for, but about convincing (or even forcinn, as it is often taking ugly administrative forms) them to take part. Still, dead people still do not take part in voting here 19 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Strelkov would be hilarious. And it wont happen for precisely the same reason the Russian Elite embarked on the Ukraine war as you rightly identified. They dont want change. Strelkov would be bad for us, but he would be far worse for the corpulent mafia elite that have Russia in their maw. I'm sorry but this "corpulent mafia elite that have Russia in their maw" were (and to great degree still are) people totally dependent (and controlled by) West. If you are unhappy with them - please, feel free to arrest them as soon as they come on another shopping your to Milan or to visit their pakaces in London. It will be hugely popular here in Russia. Good luck looking for Strelkov's assets in London
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 5 Posted February 5 So lets get this narrative straight. It was not the Russian security service that took over the Russian Mafia? No, it was the west, on its chevauchee through Russia in the 1990's, that took it over and delivered Russia until its hands, to control it! Which of course has worked out entirely optimally. Sooner or later you people are going to have to grow up and stop blaming outsiders for your self isolation and bloody ineptitude.We didnt force you to become a one party, one president state. Thats on you, and your sheer indifference to the FSB taking the country over. On our watch its true, but thats one area where you cant accuse us of treating you like a vassel. You did it to yourselves, and whistled in the dark all the way through it. Popularity is easy to measure, its called winning elections. He doesnt set himself elections he can lose, ergo, he cannot be as popular as he claims. He could fix that right now, have an election for the future of Russia with, shit, it hardly matters whom it is with. And dont fix the elections. Everyone else seems to manage it.
ink Posted February 5 Posted February 5 41 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: What exactly federal reserves? Foreign currency reserves are stolen by West (or, better say, they always existed on paper only as resources were de-facto given to West for free), trade with China and India is with positive trade balance (meaning RF is selling them more then buying from them, so no reserves spent), physical gold stock reached its peak in 2023 and still stable.... Sorry Roman, I don't have time to read your entire post right now, but I'll try to get to it later. In the meantime, it is only the Russian reserves held in Western banks that have been frozen - and there have been moves to use the interest they generate to give to Ukraine. However, as yet, the reserves themselves haven't been stolen.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: So lets get this narrative straight. It was not the Russian security service that took over the Russian Mafia? No, it was the west, on its chevauchee through Russia in the 1990's, that took it over and delivered Russia until its hands, to control it! Which of course has worked out entirely optimally. I'm sorry Stuart but there was no such thing as "Russian security service". Soviet (i mean USSR) "security service" not only collapsed even before USSR imploded as political body (othervice, it would be impossible for USSR to collapse this way) but more over. it was KGB (acting on Communist Party leadership order) who have created all this "liberation fronts" and "freedom fighters" during Perestroyka years "Discussion about the fact that a member of the CPSU (and the current president) Nauseda could have been a KGB agent at Sayudis during Perestroika, is absolutely absurd. The KGB informer at Sayudis was the leader of Sayudis, Landsbergis, a hereditary informer whose father first built the first concentration camp for Jews in the USSR for the Nazis, and then, when the Nazis were defeated, he began working for Soviet intelligence. Sayudis itself (like all Republican Popular fronts for Perestroika) was created by the local KGB from its agents. Why would the KGB need Nauseda ?" ( https://t.me/historiographe/6308 ) "By the way, you should not fall into conspiracy theory.: The KGB created popular fronts for perestroika (https://t.me/historiographe/6308 ) not to ruin anything. There was a rather primitive scheme here: Gorbachev needed a demonstration of popular support for his initiatives for the internal party struggle .; Support should not have come from a party whose leadership was being purged (Gorbachev's purge was the largest since Stalin's time); The only organization in the USSR that, apart from the party, had the opportunity to assemble some kind of movement based on the social networks it really controlled was the KGB; The Central Committee says the KGB provides, the KGB provides, no one thinks that the contingent controlled by the KGB is somewhat specific; The KGB agents get the opportunity to change the role of informers to the role of shepherds of the people, which they use."( https://t.me/historiographe/6309 ) So, as we see, " Soviet security service" not just ceased to exist by 1991, but became counterproductive, acting agaisnt state interests. So to some extent USSR implosion ended this malicious activity. Then, on ruins of USSR, new service was created (manned mostly by the worst people of KGB - those, who were unable to go to business etc.) with dual purpose of "treventing Communist revanche " and "keep down Russian nationalism" - both to make Yeltisn's "family" (and general class of this West-controlled oligarchs) safe from Russian people anger. So "Russian security service that took over the Russian Mafia" is Western myth. Reality is post-Soviet ruling elite (people like Chubais and Co, many of them foreign citizens) have created both "Russian Mafia" and "Russian security service" as tools to prolong their grip on power (and assets). What we could debate is the process of evolution of this system when "security" branch that was forced to take part in processes that were originally not invisioned by their creators (like decades-long civil war on Caucasus and general war on terror) was infiltrated by lower rank people who see their role differently and who, in cooperation with few surviving "real KGB" officers were to some limited extent, do at least something in country's interests, not for "family". Also, by definition, "security" branch was more organised and to some sort prevailed over "mafia" branch in bureoucratic struggle for top ministerial seats etc. Combined with internal collapse of West, that created current situation of colonial administration struggling against former methropoly for "junior parthner" status. 1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Popularity is easy to measure, its called winning elections. I think Trump supporters could tell you volumes on how popularity is not always result in winning elections.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 32 minutes ago, ink said: In the meantime, it is only the Russian reserves held in Western banks that have been frozen - and there have been moves to use the interest they generate to give to Ukraine. However, as yet, the reserves themselves haven't been stolen. They have been allready stolen by Russian elite (as this "assets" are in fact fake payments for Russian resources given to West for free). The reason they are frozen but not put to use is because they de-facto do not exist, confiscating them and sending to any use is the same like just printing more money.
JWB Posted February 5 Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: That is debatable, but after all who cares If you (i mean your political class) are unhappy with Putin legitimacy - please feel free to declare him illegitimate and isolate him. It will be the best possible gift for Russia, as it will eliminate possibility of surrender "collective Putin" is dreaming about. Posting videos with that convicted con artist does not help your cause.
Roman Alymov Posted February 5 Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, JWB said: Posting videos with that convicted con artist does not help your cause. First, let me remind you convicted felon is now in White House What happens now that Trump has been convicted in his hush money criminal case | CNN Politics Second, i do not remember Western cheer team refraining from use of convicted criminals statements (for example. of Khodarkovsky and Navalny) when posting another "Russia bad" stories.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now