Kiev Is Burning

[alejandro_]

37 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

UkrAF command confirmed the loss of their fighter pilot yesterday https://t.me/infomil_live/14646

   According to pro-Rus sources, his Su-27 was shot down by Р-37М missile fired by Su-30SM2 from 130km distance. https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/26564

Pilot was just 24 years old, much younger than previous pilots KIA, so probably a sign that Ukraine is lacking experienced crews (at they start of the war veterans from Soviet era came back to serve because they had more flying experience).

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

Pilot was just 24 years old, much younger than previous pilots KIA, so probably a sign that Ukraine is lacking experienced crews (at they start of the war veterans from Soviet era came back to serve because they had more flying experience).

  I'm affraid it is not exactly the case. Yes there were cases of Soviet-trained experienced pilots return to service, but we do not know how many of them actually returned (as they are, let's say, often not too "patriots of independent Ukraine"). Young ideologically motivated Capitan (who was 14 when war started, so quite a product of Azov-style education) is for sure more willing to fight.

      My distant relative, experienced UkrAF helicopter pilot (with several missions in UN contingents in Africa) for some reason choose not to go fly helicopters, but somehow ended up in "territorial defence" unit in his home region far away from frontline. No idea what was his motives (can't ask now for obvious reasons) -quite possibly, as experienced pilot he was well aware what is the life expectancy of combat piloit flying against modern AD and fighters on old Mi-24 or Mi-8....

[Roman Alymov]

Rus Tv report from Velikaya Novoselovka (in Russian) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/153492

[Roman Alymov]

Compilation of Lancet strikes on RM-70 Vampire MLRS launchers https://t.me/uav_tech/30898

[JWB]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1886110839473614996

Russian State Duma deputy Tsarev acknowledged that capturing Donbas will take years at the current pace, making it impossible to destroy Ukraine.

[glenn239]

Reports this morning that active resistance activities have commenced in Ukraine directed against mobilization centers, specifically reports of one or more bombings at "recruitment" centers.  Expectations are that its going to get worse, especially if the law to drop the draft to 18 passes.

[Stefan Kotsch]

11 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Reports this morning ...

Source?

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Rus jokes from frontline: "They promised us Armata" https://t.me/vsvetesobytij/12211

   One of numerous variations of crowdfunded frontline transporter

[Roman Alymov]

14 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Reports this morning that active resistance activities have commenced in Ukraine directed against mobilization centers, specifically reports of one or more bombings at "recruitment" centers.  Expectations are that its going to get worse, especially if the law to drop the draft to 18 passes.

That is some sort of misunderstanding based on isolated cases of armed resistance to "busification" (for example, one man shot dead military recruitment officer on fuelstation to liberate his friend or relatitive this officer was escorting, as part of fresh caught cannon fodder batch, to frontline). Also, there were two bombings of recruitment "offices".

     Newertheless, some pro-Ukr commenters (like Alexey Arestovich) is making big story out of both this events and also following threts by "military activists" to "open second front against draft dodgers"

   https://youtu.be/xpoxMYlo02g?feature=shared

[mandeb48]

summary of Ukrainian material losses according to a Russian source (take with a pinch of salt) :

https://datalens.yandex/t8or7ozcm6jeh?tab=J8

https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/26481

 

Edited February 3 by mandeb48

[Roman Alymov]

FiberFPVs vs. abandoned Bradley IFV, Peschanoye (Donetsk region) https://t.me/infomil_live/14655

[Roman Alymov]

Former Afgan Army Mi-17 vs. Geran' drone https://t.me/milinfolive/141228

FPV vs. Bradley IFV (reportedly the bridge pillars were damaged by repeated FPV hits and the bridge collapsed under the weight of Bradley crossing, then both Bradley and remains of the bridge were finished by more FPV hits) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/153521

[alejandro_]

7 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

  I'm affraid it is not exactly the case. Yes there were cases of Soviet-trained experienced pilots return to service, but we do not know how many of them actually returned (as they are, let's say, often not too "patriots of independent Ukraine"). Young ideologically motivated Capitan (who was 14 when war started, so quite a product of Azov-style education) is for sure more willing to fight.

For Su-27s there were at least 3 who were retired and came back. See table below with R sign, 3 out of 10 KIA. Other have joined in other aircrafdt types and/or serving as instructors. I agree it is hard to gauge but it is noticeable.

[Roman Alymov]

53 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

For Su-27s there were at least 3 who were retired and came back. See table below with R sign, 3 out of 10 KIA. Other have joined in other aircrafdt types and/or serving as instructors. I agree it is hard to gauge but it is noticeable.

Taking into account Ukraine had initially inhereted 72 Su-27 fighters from USSR, i think we could take this number as upper limit for Soviet-trained Su-27 pilots. Of course, can't exclude some ex-Soviet pilots were retrained from other types over "independence" period, or just migrated from other post-Soviet countries.

   By the way regarding the age of Maj. Stanislav Romanenko - it took me some time to find out his age. In this article from regional newspaper (dated 2011 https://www.gorod.cn.ua/news/gorod-i-region/26893-v-rodnuyu-shkolu-na-samolete.html ) retired military pilot Maj. Stanislav Romanenko is described as graduate of local school in 1988, so if he left school at 18 (7yo+11years)  - he was born somewhere around 1970, so died aged 53. In some Russian sources he is also described as "retiree  who came back to service", still he was not fully "Soviet trained" (but was quite adult when USSR imploded, so you could safely increase the number of pilots "who were retired and came back" to 4, i think.

P.S. This TV report said Romanenko have left school to trade school, so probably he was 2 years younger  - so died at 51?

https://youtu.be/i8BAecGS1a4?feature=shared

P.P.S. Born 01.01.1973 - see date on gravestone, he was one week short of 51 https://youtu.be/ZyljuRJ-_o0?feature=shared

 

Edited February 3 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Source?

Military Summary Channel, 1st installment for 3 Feb.

[mkenny]

7 hours ago, JWB said:

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1886110839473614996

Russian State Duma deputy Tsarev acknowledged that capturing Donbas will take years at the current pace, making it impossible to destroy Ukraine.

Zelenski's dream. That scenario only works if the enemy can match the attackers manpower and  losses and does not break and run- or if Steiner turns up and finally attacks the Russians!

[Sinistar]

this idea that russia is somehow failing in ukraine is a narrative where the west tries to sell the need to prop up ukraine at  while at the same time the governments in the united kingdom france and germany all seem to indicate that they need to do something to contain russia which is an imminent threat capable of overrunning europe at some point - these are two conflicting screenplays

you cannot have it both ways

 

the russians simply learned that large scale operations do not work in this war after taking heavy casualties in the first half of 2022 doing just that- direct assaults on towns and strong points tend to work in favor of the defender

 

after the ukrainian kherson and and kharkiv offensives the russians backed up behind their fortifications and rethought the whole situation and what modern war had turned into going into the winter waiting for the next phase

 

so they spent the time reconstituting, re-organizing and re-thinking the whole process

ukraine should have equally learned something similar after the 2023 summer offensive

 

it is deliberately slower and does not per se emphasize capturing ground but grinding down the resources of the other side

russia has actually communicated no hurry at all do anything- what timeline has the kremlin actually communicated-

none at all

 

and the pundits including those you would think are in the position to realize that inevitability of ukraine's situation in the long run to keep pushing this thing as ukraine is just ground down keep selling a stinker

Edited February 4 by Sinistar

[Roman Alymov]

11 hours ago, JWB said:

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1886110839473614996

Russian State Duma deputy Tsarev acknowledged that capturing Donbas will take years at the current pace, making it impossible to destroy Ukraine.

Note Oleg Tsarev is former Ukraine presidential elections candidate and long-time Rada (Ukr parliament) member, the only man in Ukr political class who have not folded to Maidan rioters demands. The fact any significant progress will takes years if not decades at the current pace is mathematical reality easy to calculate, but do not forget this reality is created by Russian leadership lack of will to fight real war instead of begging for negotiations with West. Untill very recently NG was pumped into Ukraine, and oil is still pumped in. Pro-Ukr tanks are running on de-facto Russian diesel fuel....

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Sinistar said:

this idea that russia is somehow failing in ukraine is a narrative where the west tries to sell the need to prop up ukraine at  while at the same time the governments in the united kingdom france and germany all seem to indicate that they need to do something to contain russia which is an imminent threat capable of overrunning europe at some point - these are two conflicting screenplays

you cannot have it both ways

 

the russians simply learned that large scale operations do not work in this war after taking heavy casualties in the first half of 2022 doing just that- direct assaults on towns and strong points tend to work in favor of the defender

 

after the ukrainian kherson and and kharkiv offensives the russians backed up behind their fortifications and rethought the whole situation and what modern war had turned into going into the winter waiting for the next phase

 

so they spent the time reconstituting, re-organizing and re-thinking the whole process

ukraine should have equally learned something similar after the 2023 summer offensive

 

it is deliberately slower and does not per se emphasize capturing ground but grinding down the resources of the other side

russia has actually communicated no hurry at all do anything- what timeline has the kremlin actually communicated-

none at all

 

and the pundits including those you would think are in the position to realize that inevitability of ukraine's situation in the long run to keep pushing this thing as ukraine is just ground down keep selling a stinker

Russia does not need large scale operations, slow and steady is the way to go. It clears the territory of any resistance. And in the end the pro-Ukrainian regime will collapse.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

Russia does not need large scale operations, slow and steady is the way to go. It clears the territory of any resistance. And in the end the pro-Ukrainian regime will collapse.

Currently pro-Russians are numerically inferrior to pro-Ukr forces on the front line, so i see no reason why "pro-Ukrainian regime will collapse" in any visible perpective if they still have millions of men hiding from conscription but rounded up and thrown into meatgrinder. With current attrition rate, they could last years.  

    The only way to change situation is fighting real war, with destruction of bridges over Dniper, stopping oil and gas supply and all switching off electric power network. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

So lets recap where the war is this week. Ukraine launched a large drone attack on Russian oil refineries, forcing several to shut down, with no date of their being operational again. There is sharp warnings from several sources about the shape of the Russian economy, with the cost of borrowing going up, and exports going down. There is reports that volunteers for the special 3 day military operation have dropped to a 5th of what they were at their height (I guess word is finally getting back to Moscow). Ukraine launched a 'terrorist attack' on a pro Russia parliamentary leader from Eastern Ukraine in Moscow, seeming to further step up their campaign against members of the Russian regime.  China and India are cutting their buys of oil from Russia in the month of March, with no indication they are going to pick up again. North Korea have seemingly withdrawn their troops from combat in Kursk after taking heavy losses. Reports at the front of assaults conducted by tanks are falling off, and now seem to be conducted by minibus and quad bike, not to mention 1990's built saloon cars. Russia is finally taking villages it took them 2 years to take, its perfectly true. OTOH, they were taking at huge cost, remain just villages, and are destroyed anyway. Meanwhile the Ukrainians seem to be playing for time, with Zelensky ordering a large scale restructuring of the army, which several online commentators have been calling for, for 3 years. Is it too late? We shall see.

But Russia is winning, clearly winning. They will be in Kyiv in a week. Or two. Or three.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Currently pro-Russians are numerically inferrior to pro-Ukr forces on the front line, so i see no reason why "pro-Ukrainian regime will collapse" in any visible perpective if they still have millions of men hiding from conscription but rounded up and thrown into meatgrinder. With current attrition rate, they could last years.  

    The only way to change situation is fighting real war, with destruction of bridges over Dniper, stopping oil and gas supply and all switching off electric power network. 

I increasingly dont believe this war is going to be won on the battlefield at all. I think both sides have achieved stasis of a sort. Its going to be outside elements that are going to break it. Whether its Trump or other political factors in play, I dont know, but I very much doubt either side is going to achieve success over the other now.

[ink]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I increasingly dont believe this war is going to be won on the battlefield at all. I think both sides have achieved stasis of a sort. Its going to be outside elements that are going to break it. Whether its Trump or other political factors in play, I dont know, but I very much doubt either side is going to achieve success over the other now.

It does rather hinge quite a lot on the economic front for both sides. If the US stops backing the Ukrainian economy, it's anyone's guess what might happen. Equally, if the Russians run down their fiscal reserves to a point that's untenable, they might also face trouble at home.

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 minutes ago, ink said:

It does rather hinge quite a lot on the economic front for both sides. If the US stops backing the Ukrainian economy, it's anyone's guess what might happen. Equally, if the Russians run down their fiscal reserves to a point that's untenable, they might also face trouble at home.

He probably wont. Apparently there is  some 2 Billion Dollars that was involved in a shadly deal with the Turks that the Europeans have frozen. As others have pointed out, suppose the US got that, and used it to buy arms for Ukraine? Everyone wins, except the Russians, and frankly who cares what they think.

I think between the Europeans and the Russians, the Ukrainians are going to go the distance. But yes, Id be the first to admit, quite a lot depends on how crazy Donald Trump is. It remains difficult to quantify.

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, ink said:

It does rather hinge quite a lot on the economic front for both sides. If the US stops backing the Ukrainian economy, it's anyone's guess what might happen. Equally, if the Russians run down their fiscal reserves to a point that's untenable, they might also face trouble at home.

Few people understand Russia (Russian Federation) is not even close to having real "war economy" now. ~10 times more people work in construction industry then in Army (not on frontline but entire Aemy). `~300 000 men are working as couriers in Moscow alone. Huge money are wasted on expencive decorations, paving streets with polished granite and so on - while frontline units are de-facto fighting on crowdfunded money, with crowdfunded drones, radios, SUVs etc. 

      Russian state is ignoring the war.