Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

Meanwhile, in Georgia....

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1862975000317190167?t=1yoE4gEl4R_JbYjd5X7O2A&s=19

[seahawk]

15 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Perhaps you can email this direct to Roman so that he can better understand why Putin is putting up with the attempts of NATO hardliners to expand the war (missile attacks in Russia) before Trump gets in?

One Trump is in power, this stupid war will be over quickly. Russia will be allowed to re-unite.

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, seahawk said:

One Trump is in power, this stupid war will be over quickly. Russia will be allowed to re-unite.

Not sure about that, but the deal which seems to present itself is that Russia will impose itself upon Ukraine more than NATO would have liked, and the G7 will use 300 billion in frozen Russian funds in a manner not of Russia's choosing.

[Roman Alymov]

40 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Not sure about that, but the deal which seems to present itself is that Russia will impose itself upon Ukraine more than NATO would have liked, and the G7 will use 300 billion in frozen Russian funds in a manner not of Russia's choosing.

 Leaving aside illusions of the deal (cherished by our elite, but unlukely to ever happen), this "300 billion in frozen Russian funds" can't be used neither bt G7 nor Russia. They do not exist, and "using them" is the same like just printing another USD 300 bln (and it is not a great deal, US is doing it every month now).

[Roman Alymov]

Compilation of FPV videos from Kursk region, including fiberFPV strike on M777 gun (i am surprised this guns are present within reach of FPV drones) https://t.me/milinfolive/136399?single

[Yama]

Howitzer position appeared abandoned - didn't seem it was a decoy though. That gun might have been there for some time?

[bojan]

Cammo net above position looks pristine, so it looks like it was abandoned relatively recently and that position was not attacked previously..

[seahawk]

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Not sure about that, but the deal which seems to present itself is that Russia will impose itself upon Ukraine more than NATO would have liked, and the G7 will use 300 billion in frozen Russian funds in a manner not of Russia's choosing.

The deal will go this way. The lines will be frozen, the Europeans will be tasked with protecting the Ukraine and paying for the security of the Ukraine, which they will not do. So Russia moves in and takes control, while the US will not object, because it is the fault of the Europeans.

[Roman Alymov]

6 hours ago, bojan said:

Cammo net above position looks pristine, so it looks like it was abandoned relatively recently and that position was not attacked previously..

Why do you think it is abandoned at all? Pro-Rus practice now is gun crews staying in cover/bunler nearby all the time when gun/howitzer is not in action, to prevent annecessary losses. Nobody is staying with the gun. More over, on systems like D-30 road wheels are removed when on position, and covered somewhere nearby - both to reduce size, chnge shape and always have wheels not damaged by splinters.

[Colin]

On 11/29/2024 at 2:09 PM, Sinistar said:

i view roman's statements perhaps a bit differently and they are instructive and perhaps a western audience ought to pay attention

 

without a pulse on the russian mood, i have to assume that at roman is not the only one in russia who is calling putin too western friendly and too complacent

 

if we assume that there are significant voices in russia with that viewpoint- whereas the west thinks that putin always bluffs, there is a dangerous potential for escalation

 

- putin is under pressured to escalate up the ladder. but putin is very measured in his response so far, rather patiently waiting it out until trump takes office

- the west thinks putin always bluffs and many are still calling for escalation, or what appears that the outgoing biden adminstration and partners within nato decide now is the time to escalate before trump retruns to office

 

so you have a situation which eventually putin can no longer be as reserved and does something such as retaliate directly against a nato country directly, as both he and medvevdv have already said were now legitimate targets, while nato decides to call russia's 'bluff' and attempts to draw russia into direct conflict before trump returns

Putin can't afford to directly attack a NATO country, Russia has already stripped it's NATO borders of men and equipment. If they fire a missile at a depot in Poland. NATO will respond in kind hitting a military target in Russia. Russia already has enough areas to protect with not enough AD assets. Instead Russia will continue it's sabotage campaign, giving just enough deniability to make response difficult. 

To much is going on and Putin will see no gain or improvement by a direct strike onto NATO territory and the resulting expansion of the war will not help Russia current war aims.  

[DB]

On 11/29/2024 at 12:57 AM, sunday said:

No

What I want is irrelevant in this regard.

What I am seeing is that the Ukrainian people is dying in a war that is mostly waged for the benefit of the Ukrainian ruling Kleptocracy. Thus they are dying pointlessly.

More than thirty years ago, during my first foray in that sceptered isle of you, but north of the border, I read a book about the battle of Culloden by one John Prebble. There was a beautiful, but sad sentence describing the fate of the Highlanders after the battle: "They were brave, they were gallant, and they were slaughtered." Very tragic. Their deaths, however, were not pointless, as the post-1746 repression of the Jacobites, and destruction of the Highland way of life was going to show.

I think no one expects that a similar fate was waiting for the Ukrainians in 2022 when Russia went to help some accidental Ukrainians in the eastern parts that are way more Russian than Ukrainian.

And yet, that's what you are doing.

Your protestations that Ukrainians are dying for a kleptocracy sound hollow when you fail to acknowledge that the exact same thing can be said, with more weight, for the Russians who are dying and for the people of Luhansk and Donetsk who have been manipulated into dying for Russia.

I'll believe you have a genuine care for the humanity of the situation when you become more even handed, but I doubt that you will ever criticise the man you seem to have decided is the (other) saviour of Christianity.

[sunday]

23 minutes ago, DB said:

And yet, that's what you are doing.

Your protestations that Ukrainians are dying for a kleptocracy sound hollow when you fail to acknowledge that the exact same thing can be said, with more weight, for the Russians who are dying and for the people of Luhansk and Donetsk who have been manipulated into dying for Russia.

I'll believe you have a genuine care for the humanity of the situation when you become more even handed, but I doubt that you will ever criticise the man you seem to have decided is the (other) saviour of Christianity.

When two kleptocracies clash and go to war, the best outcome for the peoples ruled by them is the shortest war possible, I think.

[urbanoid]

Except Russkiy Mir means they'll stay a kleptocracy (and worse) forever, the alternative is European integration - which I must say did wonders to limit the corruption in ex-Soviet bloc states.

It's no coincidence that Maidan started right after Yanu decided not to sign an association agreement (and he was widely expected to do so, it was basically regarded to be a done deal) with the EU and that current Georgian protests began after the government decided to suspend European integration process. People can tolerate quite a lot up to a point, but they know where they want to end up - within Western institutions, as that's the best shield against Russkiy Mir. 

[ink]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

Except Russkiy Mir means they'll stay a kleptocracy (and worse) forever, the alternative is European integration - which I must say did wonders to limit the corruption in ex-Soviet bloc states.

It's no coincidence that Maidan started right after Yanu decided not to sign an association agreement (and he was widely expected to do so, it was basically regarded to be a done deal) with the EU and that current Georgian protests began after the government decided to suspend European integration process. People can tolerate quite a lot up to a point, but they know where they want to end up - within Western institutions, as that's the best shield against Russkiy Mir. 

I wish that I was so infused with delight at the EU's transformative power, but I think that ended with the Baltics... Romania and Bulgaria (and, to a lesser extent, Croatia and Hungary) are having a hard time transforming. And Ukraine is a much bigger headache (and the EU is a much weakened force).

Not that membership is really on the cards in the next 20-30 years anyway.

Even if magically accelerated by the EU for political reasons, accepting a Ukraine that isn't EU-ready would probably kill the bloc.

[urbanoid]

44 minutes ago, ink said:

I wish that I was so infused with delight at the EU's transformative power, but I think that ended with the Baltics... Romania and Bulgaria (and, to a lesser extent, Croatia and Hungary) are having a hard time transforming. And Ukraine is a much bigger headache (and the EU is a much weakened force).

Not that membership is really on the cards in the next 20-30 years anyway.

Even if magically accelerated by the EU for political reasons, accepting a Ukraine that isn't EU-ready would probably kill the bloc.

A country has to do A LOT in that regard even during the accession process, to even think about admitted into the EU.

90s in ex-Soviet Bloc was a wild west. Sure, there are still differences even between countries like Poland and Czechia, to the advantage of the former, as they are somewhat more 'oligarchized' which translates to politics as well, but it's incomparable to what was happening back then.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

When two kleptocracies clash and go to war, the best outcome for the peoples ruled by them is the shortest war possible, I think.

Ukraine, a Kleptocracy that has introduced limited reforms that have upset Ukraines Oligarchs, as opposed to Russia, which regularly jails or murders people that call for reforms and introduced no bloody reforms at all.

Only the terminally deluded could conclude Ukraine and Russia are equals. The reason Russia invaded Ukraine was, at least in part, to ensure there would be no reforms that could succeed, creating a successful template for reform in Russia. Now, that certainly is worth fighting for, whether you want the best for Ukraine, or the best possible outcome for Russians. If Russians would apply themselves to the task of losing wholeheartedly, the sooner it will happen.

[ink]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

A country has to do A LOT in that regard even during the accession process, to even think about admitted into the EU.

90s in ex-Soviet Bloc was a wild west. Sure, there are still differences even between countries like Poland and Czechia, to the advantage of the former, as they are somewhat more 'oligarchized' which translates to politics as well, but it's incomparable to what was happening back then.

By my reckoning, Poland and Czechia are the countries that got the most out of EU enlargement (not counting Germany 😉), but others (see my post above) are suffering from a watering down of the EU pressure on them to reform... It isn't just that, of course, there's a multitude of factors, but none of that is looking all that rosy for Ukraine, which suffers with all the problems of the "worst" new members + is much bigger. And all of that is without even mentioning the Russian elephants in the room.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, ink said:

By my reckoning, Poland and Czechia are the countries that got the most out of EU enlargement (not counting Germany 😉), but others (see my post above) are suffering from a watering down of the EU pressure on them to reform... It isn't just that, of course, there's a multitude of factors, but none of that is looking all that rosy for Ukraine, which suffers with all the problems of the "worst" new members + is much bigger. And all of that is without even mentioning the Russian elephants in the room.

Going back a bit to the original point, decisions are made based on perceptions of reality, which might be close to actual reality or not. Yanu not signing an AA with the EU was perceived as the end of hope for European integration, same with Georgian protests at the moment.

[ink]

21 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Going back a bit to the original point, decisions are made based on perceptions of reality, which might be close to actual reality or not. Yanu not signing an AA with the EU was perceived as the end of hope for European integration, same with Georgian protests at the moment.

Oh, totally with you there. I was more referring to the notion that the EU does wonders for post-Soviet corruption. Imo, it's more of a mixed bag.

[Yama]

If the kleptocarch were so scared of EU, why many of them have EU passports?

[seahawk]

The EU is the biggest cleptocracy on earth.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, DB said:

Your protestations that Ukrainians are dying for a kleptocracy sound hollow when you fail to acknowledge that the exact same thing can be said, with more weight, for the Russians who are dying and for the people of Luhansk and Donetsk who have been manipulated into dying for Russia.

The Ukrainians are mostly conscripts, the Russians almost entirely are contractors. 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

There were conscripts involved in the invasion of Ukraine at the beginning. Then as there was a furore they were pulled out (or either died in harness). Then there was Contractees, then PMC's recruiting from prisons like the Dirty Dozen. Now there are claims they are going into hostels and hotels, finding Russian nationals, taking them to recruitment centres and yelling and browbeating them into signing on as a contractor. Then there are the others, the last gasp of homo soveticus, the criminals, the divorced, the no hopers. Some guys whose wife tells them to join. Yes, perhaps some guys wanting adventure, all of them wanting something other than what they have, which is basically no future. Maybe they will survive and get a payout. And if they dont, well its easier than finding a 6 floor window.

Maybe you regard that as contractors. Me, id regard it as suicide by service, backed by a strong leveeing of pressganging.

But of course, you must believe the propaganda you choose.

[seahawk]

I would call it strong patriotism. As a Russian there is no greater honour than to die for Russia, this makes your meaningless live have meaning.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Why is it going to have any meaning, if nobody remembers you? Even the wives presumably have their eyes on the big cheque (that they probably wont receive) than they do concern over their spouse.

Do you really think they are going to put a war memorial up with all those convicts and rapists that died in service in Wagner? Of course not. No more than they did for the thousands that must have died in penal units in WW2.

Its pointless. Its suicide by a failed generation, and for what? To move Putin's drinks cabinet 6 feet closer to Kyiv? Big deal.

Edited December 2, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith