Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well Ive been waiting for World War 3 since the early 1980's, it would be a shame to miss out on the opportunity.

7 hours ago, PaulFormerlyinSaudi said:

Reports indicate the Americans have lifted restrictions on missile strikes on the Russian homeland. We may be seeing a whole new war start. Or not. I am often wrong. 

AND the British and French. For my money, Stormshadow and Scalp might turn out to be more significant, simply because they can be moved around the battlefield so easily, and having a longer range.

Who knows, maybe Sholtz, jolted by the poor reception of his phone call with Putin, might dump Taurus on the the pile. Wouldnt it be hilarious if everyone went all in to win, now that it probably doesnt even matter anymore?

[Yama]

13 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If Britain hadn't sent them NLAW first and gave Biden a flea in his ear on multiple occasions to up the ante, then there would likely have been no support for Europe to abandon.

European willingness to support Ukraine depended on US reaction, and vice versa. If USA wasn't going to chime in, European ability to help would have been limited: OTOH USA was not going to waste its time and resources if Europe itself wasn't concerned about Ukraine.

All of that happened only after Ukrainians showed they were not going to be rolled over in few days - nobody was going to give weapons to Ukraine if they were going to lose anyway in quick order.

And same stands true now, if it looks like Ukraine is going to lose anyway, people start asking 'what's the point?' I'm afraid this is the line Trump administration is going to use unless some turnaround in war fortunes happens within 2 months.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Absolutely. And if America was not dragged kicking and screaming at every single stage because it was terrified of crossing Putin's red lines by the Europeans (a significant amount of the time Britain), then it would not have gone nearly as far as it did. Have a look at the timeline, I think you will find we sent NLAW before the invasion, and before the Americans sent the second tranche of Javelins. We were not waiting for the battlefield to occur, we were just wanting to make the Russians bleed.

Remember that the Poles wanted to send Mig29's as early as 2022, and Biden snubbed it? In the end the Europeans kept banging on and on about it, and he eventually gave in. And even then he didnt send a single F16. That was purely European contributions, despite dozens of them sat in the boneyard at Davis Monthan, awaiting conversion into target drones. Yes, they would rather blow them up themselves, rather than let Russians do it for them.

People prefer to label this as Europeans led by Americans. The reality when you look at the evidence is that at nearly every single point, Biden was preempted by Europeans to take the sting out of the decision. And even then he dragged his feet incessantly before making the decision it was alright, despite Europe not having disappeared under buckets of sunshine in the interim.

Well, lets define what lose is. When the war started, I expected Ukraine to put up huge struggle, and then be defeated as Russian numbers eventually counted. But that was an expectation Ukraine would be fully occupied. I was not expecting that nearly 3 years on, only about 10-20 percent of  Ukraine territory be occupied, and the Russians still taking huge casualties to take mere villages. Ukraine will survive now, and be a pain in the ass of Russia for evermore. That it isnt the complete defeat of Putin we were presumably all hoping is a grave shame, but this is at least a lot better than we were expecting in 2022. The sacrifice made a difference.

Yes, Putin could still take Ukraine if Trump throws it under the bus. Its clear now that that the rubicon has been passed. Putin could take the country, but he would never get it working again. Rather than a jewel in his crown, it would prove a rotting tooth at best. Rather like Poland did for the USSR, Ukraine would finish him.

And it still might of course. Without a clear victory to show, he really doesnt come away with a lot. I dont think the claim to not let Ukraine join NATO is going to stick. It cant, not without 27 nations agreeing. Trump isnt NATO, no matter what he thinks of the matter. 4 years from now you could have a US President reverse course, and guess what? Ukraine is in NATO. Something Putin surely knows, and surely cannot trust.

And that is I think why Putin wont stop, no matter how much Trump wants an end to the war.

 

Edited November 18, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

And last night it really was massive strike by all sorts of tools - cruise missiles from bombers and Black Sea fleet, Iskanders, Kinzhals, Zircons, Geran' drones etc. - pro-Ukrainians claim it was one of the strongest if not the strongest attacks since the start of "big war".

It's all part of Putin's cunningly successful attempts to surrender, as you've been saying for quite some time now.

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, seahawk said:

This is insanity. Seems like the left wants global war.

Nah, they're just trying to lock Trump into their Ukraine policy.   

[Stuart Galbraith]

He already is locked in, thats whats so hilarious about it. Even if he threatens to dump Ukraine, it makes no difference, because Putin wants a victory, and a victory isnt on offer.

 

[ex2cav]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Nah, they're just trying to lock Trump into their Ukraine policy.   

+1......They are hoping the Russians over react and it would make it more difficult for Trump to reverse course. Escalation without coordination.

[Stuart Galbraith]

From what I hear, the Ukrainians are low on manpower. They are fighting like Spartans, but the Russians keep spamming Zombies.  It may be that this is just an effort to keep them hanging on as long as possible, till Trump brokers a deal. After all, if they retain Kursk, that is a bar for Putin to negotiations. But of course if they hang onto it, Trump cant very well get them to dump it to get the talks, particularly if the Ukrainians are happy to enter into negotiations under no preconditions. So Putin is suddenly the unreasonable one, and this helps keep him that way. Kind of hard to sell a deal if the agressor doesnt turn up to talk.

Besides, its going to be a long winter. If they blow up all their supply dumps, its going to exacerabate the Russian problem getting supplies forward. Those wunderwaffe Nork Guns might not even enter the picture. This is going to be a real problem for exposed Russian troops, and their morale is shit as it is.

However you look at it, its a good idea, and months past a good idea doing. So predictably it took months for Joe to make his mind up.

[Stuart Galbraith]

So, just as things were going so well, creaky joe screws it up. Yes, he has approved the use of ATACMS in Russia. But, and here is the extraordinary thing, he is holding up the French and the British approval to use Stormshadow and Scalp!

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, ex2cav said:

+1......They are hoping the Russians over react and it would make it more difficult for Trump to reverse course. Escalation without coordination.

Sender Gleiwitz tactic.

[bfng3569]

1 hour ago, ex2cav said:

+1......They are hoping the Russians over react and it would make it more difficult for Trump to reverse course. Escalation without coordination.

yup.  not surprised the dems would do this, rather irresponsible though.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

He already is locked in, thats whats so hilarious about it. Even if he threatens to dump Ukraine, it makes no difference, because Putin wants a victory, and a victory isnt on offer.

Trump is not locked into anything that is currently NATO policy in Ukraine.  Curious to see how he reacts to this gambit.  Options range from saying nothing to openly threatening the French and British that after Jan 20th the US will sit out any tit for tat exchanges on home soil.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oh yeah, he could threaten us. And lose billions in military contracts overnight.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Undersea communication cable between Finland and Germany has been cut.

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1858508806562435251?t=7wyQn-y5EYKfeljdinMq7w&s=19

[Yama]

37 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Undersea communication cable between Finland and Germany has been cut.

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1858508806562435251?t=7wyQn-y5EYKfeljdinMq7w&s=19

Last time this happened it was a derelict Chinese merchant vessel with incompetent crew...allegedly.

[TrustMe]

Russia drafts conscripts from occupied Ukraine ...

 

https://x.com/GlushkoDenys/status/1858562597563380197

[Roman Alymov]

Small arms fire vs. FPV https://t.me/anna_news/73112

[Roman Alymov]

10 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Russia drafts conscripts from occupied Ukraine ...

 

https://x.com/GlushkoDenys/status/1858562597563380197

Let me direct you to my old post on it

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

34 minutes ago, Yama said:

Last time this happened it was a derelict Chinese merchant vessel with incompetent crew...allegedly.

Reportedly one between Sweden and Lithuania has also been cut.

https://x.com/LRTenglish/status/1858559788545655093?t=6VtwTdiHOmKE2FfnXCkrog&s=19

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Oh yeah, he could threaten us. And lose billions in military contracts overnight.

US is printing USD 1 trillion (=1000 billions) every 100 days, it means 10 billions per day. How many days of money printing will be lost if contracts gone, you say?

[old_goat]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

From what I hear, the Ukrainians are low on manpower. They are deserting en masse,

I fixed it for you.

[Roman Alymov]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Reportedly one between Sweden and Lithuania has also been cut.

https://x.com/LRTenglish/status/1858559788545655093?t=6VtwTdiHOmKE2FfnXCkrog&s=19

Conveniently, annual drills on Internet in Russia to stay functional when completely cut from global network are to be held soon.

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

From what I hear, the Ukrainians are low on manpower. They are fighting like Spartans, but the Russians keep spamming Zombies. 

   Both sides are low on manpower, but in theory pro-Ukrainians have above million armed men in uniform, while pro-Russian forces on the theater are about 600K (according to Arestovich, 590K, of which only 540K are "inside Ukraine" while others are RosGuard keeping rear area security in border regions). At the same time, pro-Ukrainians claim being constantly outnumbered on teh battlefield, up to 10:1. Arestovich's explanation for that is top brass incompetence  - as pro-Ukrainians fail to manuver and concentrate forces the way poro-Rus side do. But, i think, he is a bit playing for his political ambitions - while in reality:

1) We have to exclude 120K deserters from UkrArmy number;

2) About 1/3 of UkrArmy soldiers deny orders to go to first line and stay in the rear;

3) Last but not least, reports of "outnumbered" is just convenirnt explanation for tactical losses.

[Stuart Galbraith]

16 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

US is printing USD 1 trillion (=1000 billions) every 100 days, it means 10 billions per day. How many days of money printing will be lost if contracts gone, you say?

Tell that to Lockheed Martin.

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Conveniently, annual drills on Internet in Russia to stay functional when completely cut from global network are to be held soon.

Just in time for the Article 5.