Kiev Is Burning

[bojan]

There are going to be some more than 78k, since there is still a chance for someone not to be mentioned on social networks but probably not much more. Idea of any side losing 1000 people/day is utterly bonkers.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Bonkers, yes, but we dont tend to attack in softskin trucks, motorbikes and, ahem, chinese golf carts.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-donetsk-lyman-attack-golf-carts-1875664

[Stuart Galbraith]

There was some video of a Leopard 2 action all over social media last night. I gather it was in fact 2 Leopard 2, but not the less i mpressive for that.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31696730/battlefield-ukrainian-leopard-tank-putin-armour/

[Yama]

19 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, it's 1000 a day.

'Losses' in military sense ≠'killed'. KIA number of 150 per day would likely mean 700 to 1000 total losses (including wounded, deserted and sick).

[Stuart Galbraith]

Worth remembering, Russian dead v wounded is likely higher than Ukraine. There is plenty of evidence from numerous wars, from Afghanistan, Chechniya (Twice) the Russian casevac system simply doesnt work. Russian casevac is sticking everyone on a train, and shooting wounded they cant evacuate. Plenty of evidence this happens from drone footage.

If anything im lowballing it. The British MOD is claiming 1500 casualties a day. And you know, what, I dont think they would be importing Koreans to do their fighting for them, if they are even stevens with Ukraine. Everywhere they are attacking emplaced locations, with minmal direct fire support, no manoeuvre. They are getting slaughered here.

Doesnt mean Ukraine is winning of course. Just that I think everyone on this site has been lowballing Russian casualties, and has done it from the start. Why does anyone think they are hiring alcoholics, emptying the prisons, impressing foreigners, importing Koreans? Its not hard to figure out.

[MiGG0]

British MOD claims are just parroting UKR claims -> Totally wothless and can be thrown same trash can where RUS MOD claims already are.

[Stuart Galbraith]

No, I dont think they are, and I will tell you why.

When the Russians take casualties, they have to ask for replacements. I doubt personally thats much via landline, not inside Ukraine anyway. I suspect that is via radios, cellular communications etc. Just 800 miles away is RAF Troodos, a ground intercept station. Also, since the start of the war the RAF has been flying up and down the Ukrainian coast with ferret birds, RC135s, vacuuming any gossip they can find up.

The MOD is not going to parrot Ukrainian claims without some substantiation, much as it would please individuals here to say so. And I think they have been making that substantiation all along. But this cannot be accepted. No, the MOD must be wrong. Its a western ministry, of course its wrong, why would anyone believe the perfidious lies of westerners after Iraq!

And so on and so on and so on....

Just listening to the Eastern Border. One heroic Russian commander was recently arrested and found to have a personal torture chamber for torturing Russian soldiers who dont have relatives, to shake them down for their money. They called it the mine, so presumably it was something subterranean.  After it was found and the captives released, they found a number of skeletons whose identity they were trying to source. Presumably they were some of those making contributions to their commanders coffers after their death, the thoughful fellows.

Makes you think doesnt it? If thats the standard of Russian military commander, how many casualties are they actually reporting, and how many are 'dead soul's' they are keeping purely on the books to shake down the MOD for their wages and rations? For which reason I think the numbers are probably somewhat higher than MOD's own estimates.

But of course, feel free to disbelieve this interpretation. Nobody believed Russia was going to invade, and nobody accepted the Eastern Military district was coming down the Transiberian. Lies, all lies...

 

 

[Ssnake]

17 hours ago, bojan said:

BBC/Mediazone research is only one that has any background info on their research to back it up and they give 78k Russian dead so far.

Casualties = KIA+WIA

The question is what the ratio of KIA:WIA is; for Russia it seemed to be a horrific 1:3 in the early stages of the conflict, but I guess they improved it now to at least Vietnam era 1:7 or better. If we take an average of 1:6, we might arrive at 550,000 casualties. If it were at 1:9 we might be talking about 800,000 Russian casualties.

I think that whoever throws around casualty figures uses one of these multipliers, which is why we have so wildly swinging estimates. 78,000 KIA within three years is already 40% more than the US sufferred in a full decade in Vietnam, but given the lack of cover in much of the area and the generally higher combar intensity it appears quite believable.

[MiGG0]

15 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, I dont think they are, and I will tell you why.

When the Russians take casualties, they have to ask for replacements. I doubt personally thats much via landline, not inside Ukraine anyway. I suspect that is via radios, cellular communications etc. Just 800 miles away is RAF Troodos, a ground intercept station. Also, since the start of the war the RAF has been flying up and down the Ukrainian coast with ferret birds, RC135s, vacuuming any gossip they can find up.

The MOD is not going to parrot Ukrainian claims without some substantiation, much as it would please individuals here to say so. And I think they have been making that substantiation all along. But this cannot be accepted. No, the MOD must be wrong. Its a western ministry, of course its wrong, why would anyone believe the perfidious lies of westerners after Iraq!

And so on and so on and so on....

Just listening to the Eastern Border. One heroic Russian commander was recently arrested and found to have a personal torture chamber for torturing Russian soldiers who dont have relatives, to shake them down for their money. They called it the mine, so presumably it was something subterranean.  After it was found and the captives released, they found a number of skeletons whose identity they were trying to source. Presumably they were some of those making contributions to their commanders coffers after their death, the thoughful fellows.

Makes you think doesnt it? If thats the standard of Russian military commander, how many casualties are they actually reporting, and how many are 'dead soul's' they are keeping purely on the books to shake down the MOD for their wages and rations? For which reason I think the numbers are probably somewhat higher than MOD's own estimates.

But of course, feel free to disbelieve this interpretation. Nobody believed Russia was going to invade, and nobody accepted the Eastern Military district was coming down the Transiberian. Lies, all lies...

 

 

British MOD has been caught talking BS pretty embarassing way about UKR. They dont have any credibility anymore.

[Roman Alymov]

46 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Worth remembering, Russian dead v wounded is likely higher than Ukraine. There is plenty of evidence from numerous wars, from Afghanistan, Chechniya (Twice) the Russian casevac system simply doesnt work. Russian casevac is sticking everyone on a train, and shooting wounded they cant evacuate. Plenty of evidence this happens from drone footage.

What actually worth remembering is your judgement is based on secondary sources of questionable quality, like Western media. It is clearly demonstrated by the fact that instead of pointing out REAL problems of medical evacuation on this war (that are widely known and are mostly the same for both sides) you are inventing some myth like "sticking everyone on a train".  As result, instead of composing really strong statement (that is not difficult for any person who have done basic homework - as in age of online translation there is no need for learning Russian to read TG channels where problems are quite openly discussed) and drawing comparisons to highlight weak points of Russian Army medical system, or instead of asking questions if you are for some reason reluctant to do own research, you are reprinting media myths. 

   Just to give you the idea  - here is evacuation cart developed by leading Russian tank&vehicles restorer back in sprong of 2022, when it became clear that battlefield have changes and old methods not working anymore. Note here 3rd version is shown, not early ones (total number of carts crowdfunded and provided to troops is above 1500)

and this is old video from pro-Ukr drone showing this carts in batlefield use (note it is previous modification, with T-shaped handle copied from German WWII cart)

ion cart 

[Stuart Galbraith]

And the Russian MOD, now currently into something like 2 years and 300 days into the successful 3 day operation to take Kyiv, does.

 

[Roman Alymov]

Video of pro-Russians towing (probably, "dragging" is the right word) captured M1 Abrams. The voice behind the camera is complaining how heavy the vehicle is. Note the soldier armed with shotgun  - defence against drones

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/144551

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And the Russian MOD, now currently into something like 2 years and 300 days into the successful 3 day operation to take Kyiv, does.

 

Let me quote from my old post dated July 2022: "Of course one could be skeptical about "Konashenko's fairytales"(c)Strelkov, but also there is no reason to believe the fairytales by pro-Ukrainians and their cheer team." ( www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38893-kiev-is-burning/page/1941/#comment-1610671 ) 

[MiGG0]

9 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And the Russian MOD, now currently into something like 2 years and 300 days into the successful 3 day operation to take Kyiv, does.

 

If that was reply to me. Reread my original post.  I said RUS MOD reports belong same trash bin.

[Stuart Galbraith]

No, that's not a position, that's saying you aren't willing to take a stance.

Meanwhile, Russian priests tell Russian soldiers not to listen to Devilish words of Godless North Koreans....

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1857740978230042906?t=bBl29FzMh4LxqJRWAZu4Lw&s=19

[MiGG0]

Im not taking the stance, at least publically here. Im viewing things most possible neutral way on purpose.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Alright, lets look at it like this. We have the Russian MOD that always lies, even about things that there is no reason to lie.

And the British MOD, that openly admits its it cant fight out of a paper bag. Basically, we tell the truth, even when it suits our interests to lie.

Yes, anyone can wring their hands and say they are unable to decide. It probably comes of the modern cynicism which all the kool kids practice these days.

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

British MOD claims are just parroting UKR claims -> Totally wothless and can be thrown same trash can where RUS MOD claims already are.

The Russian claims have one battlefield fact that point otherwise - the Ukrainians have mobilized in the millions, and they're still hand to mouth for frontline troops.  Not too hard to figure out why.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Ssnake said:

I think that whoever throws around casualty figures uses one of these multipliers, which is why we have so wildly swinging estimates. 78,000 KIA within three years is already 40% more than the US sufferred in a full decade in Vietnam, but given the lack of cover in much of the area and the generally higher combar intensity it appears quite believable.

78,000 is entirely believable.  Now, factor in the firepower difference, and you arrive at an entirely believable figure for Ukraine too.  In terms of wounded, the way the Russians count them is only those permanently disabled out of the war, meaning that for 150 KIA, maybe about 100-150 wounded by that definition.  (The other wounded will return to duty, so do not count).

So, on an army of 600,000 and recruiting at maybe 20,000 to 30,000 a month, they're losing at a rate of not less than 9,000 a month.  

[seahawk]

3 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The Russian claims have one battlefield fact that point otherwise - the Ukrainians have mobilized in the millions, and they're still hand to mouth for frontline troops.  Not too hard to figure out why.

Loss rate about 5:1 in favour of Russia?

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

  In terms of wounded, the way the Russians count them is only those permanently disabled out of the war, meaning that for 150 KIA, maybe about 100-150 wounded by that definition.  (The other wounded will return to duty, so do not count).

 I'm sorry but what is the source of this insight?

[bojan]

5 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The Russian claims have one battlefield fact that point otherwise - the Ukrainians have mobilized in the millions, and they're still hand to mouth for frontline troops.  Not too hard to figure out why.

~1.2 million.

They can not use most of that personal on front lines because they have to keep huge amounts in secondary roles, like extremely manpower intensive gun AD and logistics.

[glenn239]

1 minute ago, seahawk said:

Loss rate about 5:1 in favour of Russia?

I've long thought so, and the gutted Ukrainian manpower reports and brutal press gang tactics for replacements suggest so as well.  5:1 overall, but in the current Russian offensive the ratio will be lower than that.

[glenn239]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

 I'm sorry but what is the source of this insight?

Russian MOD reports on Ukrainian casualty estimates had on at least one occasion broken out estimates for killed and wounded, (usually they lump them together), and seeing it, I noted the ratio of killed stated was slightly higher than the estimate given for permanently disabled.

[glenn239]

1 minute ago, bojan said:

~1.2 million.

They can not use most of that personal on front lines because they have to keep huge amounts in secondary roles, like extremely manpower intensive gun AD and logistics.

They don't need to press gang anyone into security roles in the rear area.  Those positions were long filled in 2022 and there are no casualties, so attrition rates are zero.  At the front, it's a gaping hole that they've shoveled hundreds of thousands into, and even though they've cut training to the bone to speed things along, they're increasingly short of manpower despite that fact.  The conclusion is obvious - the Russians are very good at killing Ukrainian troops.