Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, I was listening to a podcast last night, its that Ukrainian guy who I quote, and he was saying the same thing, the Ukrainian front has collapsed, and Its the fastest Russian advance since 2022. The only positive note I can see in it, is I doubt their logistics will handle their success. But I guess we shall see.

On the postive side, the Ukrainans have had a lot of success beating back Russian attacks in Kursk, but I dont think anyone really cares about that now.

[Roman Alymov]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yeah, I was listening to a podcast last night, its that Ukrainian guy who I quote, and he was saying the same thing, the Ukrainian front has collapsed, and Its the fastest Russian advance since 2022. The only positive note I can see in it, is I doubt their logistics will handle their success. But I guess we shall see.

There is no problems with logistics - as advance, though fast compared to "great spring offencive" is so slow there is not much difference between such advance and positional war logistics-wise.  The main problem of Russian Army is lack of menpower - pro-Ukrainians, with all their forced recruitment problems, are still in numerical superiority and Russian leadership is deliberately avoiding new waves of mobilization for the reasons i have allready described here.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its the Russian Army, so of course there is a problem with logistics. The more the front ruptures, the more you will have to bring supply convoys forward, and the more they will be targets for HIMARS.

Will that make any difference? No idea, although it is heading for the muddy season so there is probably a limit of how much ground they can take before they are up to their axles in mud anyway.

[Yama]

1 hour ago, MiGG0 said:

ProUKR are aslo startting to report real UKR forces "collapse" in Donetsk.

@Stuart Galbraith As you were quoting Emil Kastehelmi before this might be interesting for you (For all; He is ProUkr military analyst but very neutral views based on available facts) 

Google translated Finnish artice:
https://www-iltalehti-fi.translate.goog/ulkomaat/a/d6808f03-87ef-4256-80a1-54d34c4d7b8b?_x_tr_sl=fi&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fi&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Whole Emil Kastelhelmis analyse of sitatuation:

https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1851361095329493405 

Kastehelmi often plays a doomcaster as he thinks that much of the media coverage is too optimistic (he's not wrong ofc).

Russian overall advance in Donetsk direction is worrying as Ukrainians have lost so much of their prepared positions. Still I wouldn't talk about 'collapse' quite yet. Ukrainians still have plenty of territory to trade. But politically it's going to be awkward, especially if Trump wins.

But I don't think Russia is doing too great, reducing Kursk salient is not progressing and they had to pull back in Vovchansk.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think its fair to describe the initial defence like in Ukraine as a collapse. That doesnt follow its a catastrophic collapse, or one thats impossible to halt. But it is certainly clear Russia has an advantage, and is probably going to run with it for the next few weeks, maybe months.

But the truth is, we come back to 2022. There was that old story about 'The Russian Army is a wall that, no matter how far you advance, you will find in front of you.' That is  the Ukrainian Army too, and the further Ukraine retreats, the nearer its supply bases it is, and the nearer to air support. The contrary is true of Russia. Ok, so there is helicopters, but you only have to look at the hit the KA50 fleet has taken. And that was before operating in an area where Ukrainian fixed wing can make an impact.

Im not saying the Ukrainians are well placed to launch a counteroffensive. I think there is a case for saying the Russians are probably not well placed to hold onto their gains, anymore than they were in 2022. If logistics tripped them up then, Im far from convinced the same problem (particularly with drones and the addition of HIMARS) is not just as problematic. After all, this is a winter coming on, and its probably going to be punishing for troops too far forward.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

This is getting more and more like screamers. Just wait till the second variety turns up...

 

[MiGG0]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

Kastehelmi often plays a doomcaster as he thinks that much of the media coverage is too optimistic (he's not wrong ofc).

Russian overall advance in Donetsk direction is worrying as Ukrainians have lost so much of their prepared positions. Still I wouldn't talk about 'collapse' quite yet. Ukrainians still have plenty of territory to trade. But politically it's going to be awkward, especially if Trump wins.

But I don't think Russia is doing too great, reducing Kursk salient is not progressing and they had to pull back in Vovchansk.

Like Stuart already mentikoned (and is also pointed in Kastehelmi analysis in X) it is true meaning of collapse of frontline units at Donetsk. It wont mean that UKR cannot regroup and stop attack, but they need reserves desberately and there is none. Reserves need to be pulled out from somehwere else along the front and then that area comes weakspot for next RUS attack, etc. Thats why he call UKR defense "zero-sum game" at the moment. That was also his main criticism in UKR Kursk offensive when it started, UKR basically used up their strategic reserves for northing important in Kursk area.

Also RUS success for now on really depends how much they have reserves in area to exploit UKR current chaotic sitatuation. Kastelhelmi dont expect that RUS have that much of extra forces in the area to create huge breaktrough

Edited October 31, 2024 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

Does anyone know how many units they have stacked up against the Belarus border?

[Roman Alymov]

49 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Like Stuart already mentikoned (and is also pointed in Kastehelmi analysis in X) it is true meaning of collapse of frontline units at Donetsk. It wont mean that UKR cannot regroup and stop attack, but they need reserves desberately and there is none. Reserves need to be pulled out from somehwere else along the front and then that area comes weakspot for next RUS attack, etc. Thats why he call UKR defense "zero-sum game" at the moment. That was also his main criticism in UKR Kursk offensive when it started, UKR basically used up their strategic reserves for northing important in Kursk area.

Also RUS success for now on really depends how much they have reserves in area to exploit UKR current chaotic sitatuation. Kastelhelmi dont expect that RUS have that much of extra forces in the area to create huge breaktrough

   I'm sorry but both you and Stuart are fundamentally wrong about current frontline situation. 

1. All this talks about "collapse of frontline units at Donetsk" are media speculations, not supported by pro-Rus sources on the ground. We have not seen yet single company-size UkrArmy unit fully destroyed or encercled, we do not see equipment and vehicles abandoned (except Western tanks wrecks  -they are hard to recover). ProUkr retreat is more or less controlled, and there is hardly any prospect of collapse as pro-Rus forces advancing do not have significant numerical or technical  advantage over pro-Ukr units retreating. Yes proUkrainains have lost some strategic positions and now pro-Russians have effectively crossed the highest point of Donetsk ridge (and also crossed Zherebets river near Kupyansk), but we do not see it transforming into something Bagration-style.

2. About claimed lack of pro-Ukr reserves. All pro-Russians know enemy still have plenty of relatively fresh units in reserve (some of them created recently from scratch  - so called №15x brigades). For some reasons NATO command is unwilling to commit them in Donbass (despite of the fact pro-Rus pincers are often wery narrow and numerically weak, it is easy to cut them - still, no single attempt of this German-style attack through the war, at least if we trjust Arestovich). Why? One of possible explanmations is that NATO command (i hope nobody here believes it is "Ukrainians" who are running the show) do not care about losses of territory and menpower of Ukraine. Their strategic aim is regime change in Russia (that could be achieved only by "collective Putin" obvious failure as result of another pro-Ukr offencive) and, tactically, own internal political games. So this pro-Ukr reserves are saved and accumilated for some sort of politically valuable operation. 

     For example, fresh report from https://t.me/boris_rozhin/142830

"Information is received that the enemy has accumulated two armored fists in the Kharkov direction. 
In the area of the outskirts of Izum, up to 30 tanks and 11 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles were unloaded in forest plantations.
Up to 30 tanks, including Leopards, are concentrated in the area of Golubovka village.
Taking into account information from the Kursk region, where pro-Ukrs are pulling up reserves to Suja area, we conclude that the enemy will attack by the US elections.

WELDERS (https://t.me/+ER9KQ8zN9L1lYTc6 )

As mentioned earlier, the enemy still has reserves for at least one strike attempt during the autumn campaign. So if the accumulation of enemy reserves and the mounting of the strike force is revealed correctly, the enemy must lose operational and tactical surprise."

Edited October 31, 2024 by Roman Alymov

[MiGG0]

About UKR units. There is some discussion that they are units only "on paper". Discussion is related that there is increasenly more deserters in units, but UKR officers dont report those correctly as they get their salary/daily allowance for themselfs -> so bascially corruption. Basically rumor, but possible one.

Also Kastelhelmi is very familiar current sitatuation on frontlines and unit compositions. He dont see any "fresh" units there. I'll trust his opinion more that some random blocker about sitatuation.

[Stuart Galbraith]

You know its true, when the Russians are denying the Ukrainian front has collapsed. 

Of course... it IS just about possible they allowed a collapse, because they have been holding back units in reserve for a vigorous counteroffensive. But I see no evidence of that. I think they went all in in Kursk, and I see no evidence they have been holding off on reserve units there.

Maybe they just decided to abandon donbas, because its hardly worth fighting for. And they would have to trade it away as part of a Trump inspired peace deal anyway. Hard worth getting new units chewed up there for it. Its the mistake they made in Bakmut.

 

[old_goat]

On 10/30/2024 at 4:18 PM, urbanoid said:

Some prefer surrendermonkeying, others don't. Here we subscribe to the latter idea.

Of course. It is always easier to drown the enemy in the blood of "allies" (=ukrainians) instead of own army.

On 10/30/2024 at 4:18 PM, urbanoid said:

Our relations with Ukraine are very difficult as well, doesn't mean that we cannot add 2+2 and have some empathy (and actual support) for people invaded by Russia.

Not as difficult as ours. Ukrainians always treated ethnic hungarians with extreme hostility. There were many neonazi atrocities against them. The regime never did anything to prevent these (in fact encouraged). Also, they actively created laws that severely restricted the rights of minorities. Main targets were of course russians (first most hated ethnicity), but secondarily, hungarians. As I said previously, there were many attempts from our side to normalize relations way before even 2014. All without success. 

As for empathy and supporty, yep there is that. Lots of refugees came here too, and we definitely provide aid to them. And yes I absolutely agree with this. Supporting ukrainian refugees is definitely something we must do, but supporting the regime... no thanks. And unlike Poland, we do not want to send back men to die for Zelensky and his oligarchs! 

On 10/30/2024 at 4:18 PM, urbanoid said:

There is literally zero proof of the West encouraging them to do anything prior to 2022 war,

Starting with the fact is that the current regime is an USA puppet. Well, this is not entirely right, it is actually a puppet of the globalist elite, the so called deep state. Ukrainians deliberately violated Minsk agreements, instead of withdrawing, they actively started a military buildup. Even worse, they did absolutely nothing to make the political changes regarding the re-integration of LNR/DNR, also did nothing against the persecution of ethnic russians. Minsk II specified that local elections should be held in LNR/DNR, but ukrainian regime did everything to sabotage and delegitimize it. 

Also you can find lots of proof of western meddling in ukrainian affairs at Wikileaks. 

And one more thing. Ukraine is not a legitimate country anymore. First, it is ruled by a puppet government, second, the vast majority is owned by BlackRock. The rest is owned by ukrainian oligarchs and people like George Soros or Hunter Biden. Basically it is a plaything of the globalist elite. 

 

[JWB]

Russia has created a 21st-century Gulag on occupied Ukrainian territories - New York Times.

Brutal repression in Russian-controlled Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions has institutionalized Soviet-style tactics, with over 100 known detention sites where Ukrainian civilians are tortured, beaten, or killed. At least 14,000 Ukrainian civilians are imprisoned on fabricated charges, facing arbitrary violence, forced disappearances, and torture.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1851945404784320535

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Where is seahawk, just when we need a pithy, sarcastic comment about Russia being as good as the USSR?

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You know its true, when the Russians are denying the Ukrainian front has collapsed. 

  There is no shortage of overoptimistic reporting, but the problem is people looking at the war map from nice places like Greece and less nice like London are not aware of the problems on the ground that are numerous and growing (and it is not logistics)

 

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Maybe they just decided to abandon donbas, because its hardly worth fighting for. And they would have to trade it away as part of a Trump inspired peace deal anyway. 

 There is also popular theory, that sparks hate waves both among pro-Ukrainian activists (as it means there is a deal to abandon the land pro-Ukrainias were occupying since 2014) and among pro-Russians (since it means that Russian land outside Donbass would be left under pro-Ukr occupation).

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Hard worth getting new units chewed up there for it. Its the mistake they made in Bakmut.

I'm sorry but wasn't Bakhmut described by Western media as smart operation to kill numerous Russians ? When it became "mistake"?

[Stuart Galbraith]

The Western media says lots of things. Some of them are even true.

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. Caesar SPG, Sumy region. Interestingly high mobility of this SPG is no more able to provide protection, so it is hiding in cover

https://t.me/anna_news/72474

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The Western media says lots of things. Some of them are even true.

Thank you for admitting some things reported by Western media are not true.

[urbanoid]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

Thank you for admitting some things reported by Western media are not true.

As if a lot of Western posters weren't regularly shitting on Western media here on TN.

[glenn239]

9 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

There is no problems with logistics - as advance, though fast compared to "great spring offencive" is so slow there is not much difference between such advance and positional war logistics-wise.  The main problem of Russian Army is lack of menpower

No, the main problem is Ukrainian FPV drones.  You watch any Russian advance, and chances are maybe 9 in 10 that if a problem is encountered or losses suffered, it's due to drones.

[Roman Alymov]

18 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

No, the main problem is Ukrainian FPV drones.  You watch any Russian advance, and chances are maybe 9 in 10 that if a problem is encountered or losses suffered, it's due to drones.

Drones are more present when frontline is static (as it is more convenient for drone teams to operate from well established positions) then when frontline is moving (even with current tempo of 1-2 kilometers a day). 

[ex2cav]

On 10/29/2024 at 1:34 PM, Mike1158 said:

Please point something out to me, where are the properly flourishjing opposition parties in Russia?

 

No, thought not.

I don't know about opposition parties in Russia. I was just pointing out that Democracy has a flexible meaning in this circumstance. My point was to note that we don't know all in Ukraine either. 

[ex2cav]

On 10/29/2024 at 1:32 PM, urbanoid said:

Clearly a bad faith argument, there were no elections in the UK during WW2 (and the only occupied parts of 'UK proper' were what, Guernsey and Jersey?), yet somehow it was obvious on the other side of the pond that it was a fellow democracy.

Not to mention the fact that Ukraine in the Western sphere (it's where they want to be, possibly institutionally) will have no other choice than being a democracy.

Your arguments underlie your assumptions. The Nazi regime was evil. That said that war was generations ago. I find it odd that WW2 seems to be a basis for the Russo-Ukrainian War today. I was just pointing out that we don't know all about the politics there or in Russia. 

A surviving Ukraine might and should revert to a democratic style of governance. Will it? That depends on how the war ends.

 

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Drones are more present when frontline is static (as it is more convenient for drone teams to operate from well established positions) then when frontline is moving (even with current tempo of 1-2 kilometers a day). 

Drones are the standard Ukrainian response when the Russians advance.  They're the reason why the front is not blowing apart.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Drones are the standard Ukrainian response when the Russians advance.  They're the reason why the front is not blowing apart.

All information I’ve seen indicates artillery is still the primary cause of casualties by a wide margin, though perhaps vehicle losses are driven more by UAV engagements. But even then, it tends to much easier to focus artillery on a large assault then drones.