Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

And yet, the Russians clearly didnt get any POW's, because they have returned to using old footage to portray a new success. Or maybe they just ran down all the batteries on their camera phones, and it was for 'illustrative' purposes?

If they caught the Ukrainians in a pocket, they can show the footage, or Im going to disbelieve it.

[MiGG0]

11 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And yet, the Russians clearly didnt get any POW's, because they have returned to using old footage to portray a new success. Or maybe they just ran down all the batteries on their camera phones, and it was for 'illustrative' purposes?

If they caught the Ukrainians in a pocket, they can show the footage, or Im going to disbelieve it.

If they are going to release videos, it will come shortly. There is usually couple days of lag in video releases (RUS seem to controls videos lot more now that in start).

Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0

[Yama]

9 hours ago, bojan said:

Nothing larger than FAB-3000 is used as there is no suitable carrier aircraft. 5000s would require Tu-22M3 and that is just a no go.

Well that was the story some time ago, that Backfires would start to carry FAB-5000's. But it was obviously just a rumour.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

Yes and that why I said it is not steady line. Comparison like ”this rate it takes X amount if time to reach Dnepr” is not usable. When it happens (and question is when, not if), UKR lose large areas fast as there in almost no troops to block any RUS advence. There is already lot of gaps in Donbass defence which RUS use to make those pincer attacks. Vuhlnedar was one of those.

Even a Ukrainian collapse likely only gives Russia most of the area east of the Dneiper on a good day.

Plus you are assuming Ukraine collapses first. IMO, Russia is the place that had the closest thing to a coup so far.

[MiGG0]

16 minutes ago, Josh said:

Even a Ukrainian collapse likely only gives Russia most of the area east of the Dneiper on a good day.

Plus you are assuming Ukraine collapses first. IMO, Russia is the place that had the closest thing to a coup so far.

If RUS reached Dneipr it all over for UKR. That point pretty much all forces east of it are spends or cut off.

Militarily and Economically UKR is way worse state than RUS is. There is no question about it. Is some coup possible in RUS? Maybe, but I dont think it will necessarily help UKR. It might get actually worse for them as who ever goes in power can blame Putin for it and then promise to resolve it with "real war", with full mobilization and all that. I dont think in any scenario where RUS will just end it and say "Sorry! My mistake. We just pull off".

Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0

[sunday]

3 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Militarily and Economically UKR is way force state than RUS is. There is no question about it. Is some coup possible in RUS? Maybe, but I dont think it will necessarily help UKR. It might get actually worse for them as who ever goes in power can blame Putin for it and then promise to resolve it with "real war", with full mobilization and all that. I dont think in any case RUS will just end it and say "Sorry! My mistake. We just pull off"

What are the chances of a coup* in Ukraine?

*Or another coup.

Edited October 3, 2024 by sunday

[MiGG0]

6 minutes ago, sunday said:

What are the chances of a coup* in Ukraine?

*Or another coup.

Well, if RUS reach to Dneipr and Zelensky still want to fight "to the end". I think his support ratios would be pretty low... but then again Nazi Germany did fight until Hitler was gone (point is not to compare Hitler to Zelensky -> just that some cases Nations truly fight "to the end". Mostly not.).

Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

I cant help but think if it becomes apparent Russian forces are going to end up in Lviv, then the Eastern Europeans will almost inevitably be pulled in. Maybe that doesnt look apparent to Americans, but then Americans dont have to share Russia on two borders, which I think for Poland will be intolerable.  Which is why the collapse of Ukraine, is going to be so goddamn dangerous.

And if this looks unlikely, its precisely what happened in 1919 when Russia's borders were last in flux.

[MiGG0]

6 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I cant help but think if it becomes apparent Russian forces are going to end up in Lviv, then the Eastern Europeans will almost inevitably be pulled in. Maybe that doesnt look apparent to Americans, but then Americans dont have to share Russia on two borders, which I think for Poland will be intolerable.  Which is why the collapse of Ukraine, is going to be so goddamn dangerous.

And if this looks unlikely, its precisely what happened in 1919 when Russia's borders were last in flux.

Not really. Directly atleast. More likely whole eastern NATO border will just come to Berlin wall on steroids and UKR ends up in RUS sphere of influence with their puppet government.

[sunday]

50 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Well, if RUS reach to Dneipr and Zelensky still want to fight "to the end". I think his support ratios would be pretty low... but then again Nazi Germany did fight until Hitler was gone (point is not to compare Hitler to Zelensky -> just that some cases Nations truly fight "to the end". Mostly not.).

There was July 20th 1944, after all.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Or indeed, the 5th of March, 1953....

[bojan]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

Well that was the story some time ago, that Backfires would start to carry FAB-5000's. But it was obviously just a rumour.

According to Fighterbomber channel it is a baseless rumor as T-22M3 has no chance of pulling attacks off at the range UMPK can be used and surviving.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And yet, the Russians clearly didnt get any POW's, because they have returned to using old footage to portray a new success.

MSC indicated that the 72nd Brigade, (elite) gave up no prisoners, and that roughly half the troops withdrawing were either killed or injured running across the fire sack.  The 870 prisoners were stated to be poor quality territorial units sent in recently to take over the 72nd Brigade positions.

 

Edited October 3, 2024 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

Sounds about as convincing as Elvis owning a Chip shop in Dudley.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, bojan said:

According to Fighterbomber channel it is a baseless rumor as T-22M3 has no chance of pulling attacks off at the range UMPK can be used and surviving.

<edit>

Russiabot Solidier 36 posted that it's an 1500kg fuel air bomb dropped by SU-34

 

Edited October 3, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

45 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sounds about as convincing as Elvis owning a Chip shop in Dudley.

Military Summary Channel has been tracking the battle for weeks, and just prior to the 72nd's withdrawal, using geolocated drone footage to establish frontline positions.  With this method, they established that the last road out of town was completely under Russian fire control (FPV, Lancet, artillery, anti-tank missile) from positions astride the road before the 72nd started it's withdrawal.  So, from that, if you want to believe some guy saying that the 72nd just marched by active fire positions in parade formations waving flags and singing songs, be my guest.

[Stuart Galbraith]

No, I want to believe the truth. If people want to illustrate this guy has got it hopelessly wrong, which is of course possible, then it doesnt seem unreasonable, since everyone is disagreeing, to see some drone footage of this Russian victory over the Ukrainians. Im sure the Russians have no problem providing any, since its such a good news story. That they fabricated at least some of that evidence to me has my spidey sense tingling.

If there isnt any available, it to me suggest that yes, the balance of truth is probably with the Ukrainians. And ill retain that position till someone slaps some evidence on the table, whereupon Ill change my mind.

Watch the mans channel. If anything he was critical of Kursk, worried about its future, and critical of other Ukrainian positions. But if you want to take against him based on your smartarse opinion, there is nothing I can do for you.

Edited October 3, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

11 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You ever heard the one about Napoleon? I forget which battle it was. He said 'This battle is completely lost. But there is time to win another!' (looked it up, it was Marengo). And that is essentially what happened.

You were on the ropes. Your men were being slaughtered. Your tanks were being stolen by Ukrainian farmers. The Kerch Bridge was blown up. Your national guard was in pieces, you Black Sea flagship was sunk.  If we had supplied everything Ukraine now has, long range rockets, F16's, Western tanks and AFV's, artillery, Patriot missiles, right then as I was expecting, this war would be over now, and Putin, if anywhere, dangling from the Kremlin wall. But we dithered and whined, and pointed pointed to the Russian nuclear stockpile, as if it was an excuse.

We blew it. It wasnt Ukraines failure, it was ours, as will be the consequences.

Or maybe Putin will have a heart attack. We may yet get luck we dont deserve. If it happened to Genghis Khan, it can happen to anyone.

  I'm affraid you live in the word of illusions created for you by your media. By the time, as you claim, Russia "was on the ropes" - Moscow anmd other big cities were, as usaual for years before that, full of massive public holidays (usual tool used by pro-Western elite to distract public attention from their looting the country), world's longest subway line was launched in Moscow, infrastructure, roads and housing constructed at record volumes (surpassing Soviet years - still are, by the way), and so on. Our Gov was making the country to ignore the war. But it was you guys who have changed that - now some notoriously corrupt officials are in prison (and new ones arrested next to daily), pro-Russian volunteer battalion commanders appointed Presidential representatives in major industrial regions*, blue-collar jobs are again in demand (and payed above office jobs for the first time since USSR collapse if not earlier), key plants de-privatized (=taken back from West hands), Russian producers replacing Western ones on domestic market and so on. Congratulations, your leaderswhip have defeated own colonial administration that was ruling Russia FOR YOU and was only asking for more confortable conditions of this rule FOR THEM PERSONALLY AND AS CLASS. Great achievement. Now this people are gone or forced (unwillingly) to change theior policy.   

    Look at how brilliant your politicians are in running your own country, the place they are suppoosed to know best, and imagine how good they are in international affairs, especially in places they got no idea about.

*note they may be not the best people- for example, recently appoin Aryom Zhoga was strongly criticized by Strelkov, but at least he do not have palace in London or villa in Italy - but have lost son on this war.

[Roman Alymov]

  Interestingly, pro-Russians have found 116 civilians in Ugledar after liberating it - while pro-Ukrainians have claimed there were only 107 left. It means some people were HIDING from pro-Ukrainians in the city that was frontline for 2+ years....

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/139598

[Roman Alymov]

Long (~13 minutes) drone video of the incident in Kyrsk region, when back in August two BTR-82As of 810th RusMarines brigade strafed the column of NATO armor (claimed to be 19 vehicles) https://t.me/anna_news/71440

[mandeb48]

10 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

  Interestingly, pro-Russians have found 116 civilians in Ugledar after liberating it - while pro-Ukrainians have claimed there were only 107 left. It means some people were HIDING from pro-Ukrainians in the city that was frontline for 2+ years....

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/139598

Well, I don't think counting civilians has been the biggest concern of the Ukrainian troops in Ugledar in recent days. Maybe the numbers were not exact.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Interesting...

 

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Well, I don't think counting civilians has been the biggest concern of the Ukrainian troops in Ugledar in recent days. Maybe the numbers were not exact.

They were occuping Ugledar for 10 years before that, including years of "Minsk agreements" when it was completely safe for them to do anything they want to. But, taking into account pro-Ukrainains do not even know how many people live in part of Ukraine they control (since the only census in Ukraine was conducted in 2001 - having accurate data are not convenient for Ukr Gov for plenty of reasons from better oppotunity for elections manipulations to stealing all sorts of funds) - quite possibly they were not even interested in having exact numbers for Ugledar. Still, they are usually inflating population numbers, not deflating them.

[MiGG0]

14 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, I want to believe the truth. If people want to illustrate this guy has got it hopelessly wrong, which is of course possible, then it doesnt seem unreasonable, since everyone is disagreeing, to see some drone footage of this Russian victory over the Ukrainians. Im sure the Russians have no problem providing any, since its such a good news story. That they fabricated at least some of that evidence to me has my spidey sense tingling.

If there isnt any available, it to me suggest that yes, the balance of truth is probably with the Ukrainians. And ill retain that position till someone slaps some evidence on the table, whereupon Ill change my mind.

Watch the mans channel. If anything he was critical of Kursk, worried about its future, and critical of other Ukrainian positions. But if you want to take against him based on your smartarse opinion, there is nothing I can do for you.

While I agree that videos would be best evidence, there are UKR ”sources” of 72nd retreat like this that seem to confirm that retreat was not that organized.

 

 

Edited October 4, 2024 by MiGG0

[Roman Alymov]

The Times article Conscription tactics get dirty as war-weary Ukrainians defy draft (thetimes.com)

It is paywalled, so below id back-translation from Russian ( Методы мобилизации на Украине становятся все более грязными, а уставшие от войны украинцы игнорируют призыв (The Times, Великобритания) | 04.10.2024, ИноСМИ (inosmi.ru) )

"Mobilization methods in Ukraine are becoming increasingly dirty, and Ukrainians tired of the war ignore the call
The Times: Ukraine has a desperate situation with mobilization
Ukrainian police officers check the documents of a man, looking for those who evade mobilization - InoSMI, 1920, 04.10.2024
© AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky

Samuel Lovett
Having received an order to additionally mobilize 200,000 people, the recruiters of the Ukrainian army are erecting checkpoints, grabbing people on the streets and ignoring deferrals from conscription.

It has been more than a month since the police came to Sasha's Odessa apartment and warned that he would be fined if he did not renew his identity documents. The police officers added that the issue can be easily resolved by going to the local recruiting office for a minute.
 
Sasha was calm. He has a chronic kidney disease, which gives him an official exemption from military service. That's why he got into the car with the police and didn't come back.
"The next day, he called from someone else's phone and said that he was at a training base in Kiev," said Sasha's neighbor Gennady. "He was deceived."
Such methods are widespread in Odessa. In an attempt to mobilize a new generation of soldiers amid growing war fatigue, the authorities are increasingly resorting to deception, coercion and the use of force.
On Thursday, during a trip to Kiev, the new head of NATO, Mark Rutte, told President Zelensky that the goal of the alliance was to ensure that Ukraine prevailed. "This is a priority and an honor for me," Rutte said.

 But for Ukraine, everything is different, because time is not on its side. The country has conscripted approximately one million people into active military service, and most of them have been continuously involved in hostilities since the beginning of the armed conflict. The military hopes to recruit another 200,000 people by the end of the year, said Roman Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary Committee on National Defense. According to NATO, Russia recruits about 30,000 people every month, but suffers "very heavy" losses.
It is extremely necessary to recruit 200,000 people, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so.
In Odessa, where almost a million people live, one employee of the local military enlistment office said that his department was completely not fulfilling the plan. "We don't even get 20 percent of the required number," he said, adding that on some days they hand over 100 summonses, but only a few come. "The Odessa region is one of the worst on the list," said this employee.
He painted a grim picture of corruption, mismanagement and frustration in his department, saying that because of this, "it is impossible to fulfill the tasks set." According to him, colleagues take bribes worth thousands of pounds for forgery of documents on postponement, and due to staff shortages, employees are forced to simultaneously perform a variety of duties, from paperwork to patrolling the streets. And the authorities threaten to send them to the front if they do not fulfill the plan.
On some days, more than half of the men who come on the agenda have diseases that make them impossible to enlist in the army, this employee added. This is tuberculosis, hepatitis or AIDS. "We bring a large number of people for medical examination, and then it turns out that they are really sick," he said.

 Almost daily, there are reports and videos of people being stopped on the streets, pushed into buses without numbers and taken to the central city recruitment center, where they are checked for their suitability for mobilization.
Most of the detainees are men between the ages of 25 and 60 who have not registered in the electronic database of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and have not provided information about themselves. This requirement was legalized in May in an attempt to identify all conscripted men in Ukraine.
Sometimes it comes to a fight. In June, the ambulance staff clashed with the military when their colleague went to the recruiting office to extend the documents on the postponement, but he was not allowed to leave. In other cases, locals (i think, oroginay it was "local women" - RA) get into a fight with officers when the military tries to detain men.
One Telegram group shares up-to-date information about the location of patrol "draft teams" and their check points. This group consists of almost 150,000 people, some say that it is led from Russia.
Compared to the beginning of the conflict, significant changes have taken place, because then hundreds of thousands of people came to the recruiting stations.
Among them was 47-year-old Gennady. "I tried to volunteer, but they told me I wasn't needed. And now I don't want to fight," he said. – Our state does not support soldiers. They don't have the necessary equipment, and when a person gets injured, they forget about him."
An employee of the military enlistment office said that in such an environment, his colleagues begin to illegally and forcibly detain men on the streets, including those who have a postponement. For example, these are people whose brothers or fathers have already died at the front.
"Such incidents damage the image of the entire organization, but that's exactly the way things are, because we are ordered to give results, to act effectively," he said.
Critics condemn such "Soviet" tactics, calling them counterproductive. But Tim Willasey-Wilsey, who lectures on defense and security at King's College London, said: "The liberal in all of us wants to say that this is doomed to fail. On the other hand, I recently talked with a Ukrainian friend whose husband has been at the front since 2022. She said it was a shame when men of military age hid from mobilization. We need to signal to the military that you take this seriously and recruit more people to fight. The first cohort of soldiers deserved to be replaced."
Like other rich cities, Odessa gave fewer men to the front at the beginning of hostilities because they had the opportunity to escape or pay for a delay. Most of the recruits are from rural areas, where men do not have such opportunities and means to hide.
Last year, the former head of the Odessa territorial recruitment center, Yevgeny Borisov, was accused of taking bribes worth more than five million dollars for approving draft deferrals. He helped thousands of men evade conscription.
"It was done massively, as if in bulk," said one Odessa lawyer involved in this investigation. – Everyone in the country knew that it was easier to evade the draft here. Maybe it is for these reasons that the authorities are now tightening the screws."
He supports the call, but says the authorities need to think about a different approach. "When you are at the front and you are performing a combat mission that is dangerous, you should be paid more. But this is not the case," the lawyer said. "And when a person gets injured, they pay him money that doesn't even cover the treatment."
An officer from the recruitment center called on NATO to intervene and check the recruitment process in Ukraine. He also said that part of the money transferred by the Western allies should be spent on increasing the monetary allowance of military personnel.
"If nothing changes," he added, "we'll just be stuck in this hopeless situation."