MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Josh said: Collapse is not a steady line nor a predictable thing. Most everything about how Russia runs the war: its treatment of civilians and POWs, its active attempts to starve and freeze the population…rather ensure that everyone knows exactly how bad it will be if Russia wins. Perhaps there will be a collapse tomorrow, perhaps next year. Perhaps the year after. Glenn has predicted one since at least last fall. Yes and that why I said it is not steady line. Comparison like ”this rate it takes X amount if time to reach Dnepr” is not usable. When it happens (and question is when, not if), UKR lose large areas fast as there in almost no troops to block any RUS advence. There is already lot of gaps in Donbass defence which RUS use to make those pincer attacks. Vuhlnedar was one of those. Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 I just looked up this podcaster about the evacuation of Vuhlevar, and he is usually scrupulous honest in calling it when the Ukrainians fuck up. He says the withdrawal was in good order, and the Russians didnt get any prisoners at all. All the ones seen were captured in the early stages of the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk. Still, it doesnt erase the fact there is a growing problem. Unless Ukraine can somehow create more battlefield reverses, and my guess is they cant, their only hope right now is the Russian regime collapses. Which to me strikes me as rather like the Russians relying on Trump to win to score an end to the war they can cope with. If one were a writer, you would call it a Deux Ex Machina, which of course happen, but somewhat futile to depend on one.
MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) Yeah and this"honest" channel says totally opposite (for short 870 pows capture and huge losses to units that tried to leave. To be honest I believe this as RUS did have firecontrol very long to remaining supply route): Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: Wasn't it you who claimed two years ago that Russia have allready lost? Now you are blaming your political leadership for lack of action exactly for believing the same at the same timeframe (as two years ago your media were full of stories of Russia out of everything, collapsong and Putin almost dead). Your politicians trusted your press (or, better say, they are the same group of arrogant and incompetent peopl,e sitting on all branches of power). So, if you insist that you "failed the easy solution" -isn't it logical fror you to demand, first and foremost, changes in your local political elite? We see this changes here in Russia (for example, today Artyom Zhoga, ex-commander of "Sparta" btn of Donetsk militia, was appointed Presidential representative in Urals federal district).Not sure it is good appointment (Strelkov was skeptical about this man whom he knew from 2014), but still it is massive change in comprador pro-Western elites.... You ever heard the one about Napoleon? I forget which battle it was. He said 'This battle is completely lost. But there is time to win another!' (looked it up, it was Marengo). And that is essentially what happened. You were on the ropes. Your men were being slaughtered. Your tanks were being stolen by Ukrainian farmers. The Kerch Bridge was blown up. Your national guard was in pieces, you Black Sea flagship was sunk. If we had supplied everything Ukraine now has, long range rockets, F16's, Western tanks and AFV's, artillery, Patriot missiles, right then as I was expecting, this war would be over now, and Putin, if anywhere, dangling from the Kremlin wall. But we dithered and whined, and pointed pointed to the Russian nuclear stockpile, as if it was an excuse. We blew it. It wasnt Ukraines failure, it was ours, as will be the consequences. Or maybe Putin will have a heart attack. We may yet get luck we dont deserve. If it happened to Genghis Khan, it can happen to anyone.
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 1 minute ago, MiGG0 said: Yeah and this"honest" channel says totally opposite: Dont know that channel, and this guy I like has been perfectly honest in the past, not least about when the Ukrainians fire someone they shouldnt, or when they do something stupid on the battlefield. he was also among the first to say Ukraine coudlnt possibly reach Kursk, and didnt believe that was even the objective. Nobody is flawless, but if anyone is worth trusting, its him. Go look among his past videos if you dont believe me.
MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Dont know that channel, and this guy I like has been perfectly honest in the past, not least about when the Ukrainians fire someone they shouldnt, or when they do something stupid on the battlefield. he was also among the first to say Ukraine coudlnt possibly reach Kursk, and didnt believe that was even the objective. Nobody is flawless, but if anyone is worth trusting, its him. Go look among his past videos if you dont believe me. As I edited in my post. While I consider military summary channel as more "PRO RUS" (but it really is somewhat "honest" in sense as it will report RUS fuck ups and UKR wins aswell -> It tries to be "neutral") I believe it more as RUS had firecontrol over last supply route quite some time adn they monitored it constantly. Also there are other UKR reports that retreat was not organised. They left without any orders to do so.
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 And yet, the Russians clearly didnt get any POW's, because they have returned to using old footage to portray a new success. Or maybe they just ran down all the batteries on their camera phones, and it was for 'illustrative' purposes? If they caught the Ukrainians in a pocket, they can show the footage, or Im going to disbelieve it.
MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: And yet, the Russians clearly didnt get any POW's, because they have returned to using old footage to portray a new success. Or maybe they just ran down all the batteries on their camera phones, and it was for 'illustrative' purposes? If they caught the Ukrainians in a pocket, they can show the footage, or Im going to disbelieve it. If they are going to release videos, it will come shortly. There is usually couple days of lag in video releases (RUS seem to controls videos lot more now that in start). Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0
Yama Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 9 hours ago, bojan said: Nothing larger than FAB-3000 is used as there is no suitable carrier aircraft. 5000s would require Tu-22M3 and that is just a no go. Well that was the story some time ago, that Backfires would start to carry FAB-5000's. But it was obviously just a rumour.
Josh Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 2 hours ago, MiGG0 said: Yes and that why I said it is not steady line. Comparison like ”this rate it takes X amount if time to reach Dnepr” is not usable. When it happens (and question is when, not if), UKR lose large areas fast as there in almost no troops to block any RUS advence. There is already lot of gaps in Donbass defence which RUS use to make those pincer attacks. Vuhlnedar was one of those. Even a Ukrainian collapse likely only gives Russia most of the area east of the Dneiper on a good day. Plus you are assuming Ukraine collapses first. IMO, Russia is the place that had the closest thing to a coup so far.
MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Josh said: Even a Ukrainian collapse likely only gives Russia most of the area east of the Dneiper on a good day. Plus you are assuming Ukraine collapses first. IMO, Russia is the place that had the closest thing to a coup so far. If RUS reached Dneipr it all over for UKR. That point pretty much all forces east of it are spends or cut off. Militarily and Economically UKR is way worse state than RUS is. There is no question about it. Is some coup possible in RUS? Maybe, but I dont think it will necessarily help UKR. It might get actually worse for them as who ever goes in power can blame Putin for it and then promise to resolve it with "real war", with full mobilization and all that. I dont think in any scenario where RUS will just end it and say "Sorry! My mistake. We just pull off". Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0
sunday Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 3 minutes ago, MiGG0 said: Militarily and Economically UKR is way force state than RUS is. There is no question about it. Is some coup possible in RUS? Maybe, but I dont think it will necessarily help UKR. It might get actually worse for them as who ever goes in power can blame Putin for it and then promise to resolve it with "real war", with full mobilization and all that. I dont think in any case RUS will just end it and say "Sorry! My mistake. We just pull off" What are the chances of a coup* in Ukraine? *Or another coup. Edited October 3, 2024 by sunday
MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 6 minutes ago, sunday said: What are the chances of a coup* in Ukraine? *Or another coup. Well, if RUS reach to Dneipr and Zelensky still want to fight "to the end". I think his support ratios would be pretty low... but then again Nazi Germany did fight until Hitler was gone (point is not to compare Hitler to Zelensky -> just that some cases Nations truly fight "to the end". Mostly not.). Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 I cant help but think if it becomes apparent Russian forces are going to end up in Lviv, then the Eastern Europeans will almost inevitably be pulled in. Maybe that doesnt look apparent to Americans, but then Americans dont have to share Russia on two borders, which I think for Poland will be intolerable. Which is why the collapse of Ukraine, is going to be so goddamn dangerous. And if this looks unlikely, its precisely what happened in 1919 when Russia's borders were last in flux.
MiGG0 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 6 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: I cant help but think if it becomes apparent Russian forces are going to end up in Lviv, then the Eastern Europeans will almost inevitably be pulled in. Maybe that doesnt look apparent to Americans, but then Americans dont have to share Russia on two borders, which I think for Poland will be intolerable. Which is why the collapse of Ukraine, is going to be so goddamn dangerous. And if this looks unlikely, its precisely what happened in 1919 when Russia's borders were last in flux. Not really. Directly atleast. More likely whole eastern NATO border will just come to Berlin wall on steroids and UKR ends up in RUS sphere of influence with their puppet government.
sunday Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 50 minutes ago, MiGG0 said: Well, if RUS reach to Dneipr and Zelensky still want to fight "to the end". I think his support ratios would be pretty low... but then again Nazi Germany did fight until Hitler was gone (point is not to compare Hitler to Zelensky -> just that some cases Nations truly fight "to the end". Mostly not.). There was July 20th 1944, after all.
bojan Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 4 hours ago, Yama said: Well that was the story some time ago, that Backfires would start to carry FAB-5000's. But it was obviously just a rumour. According to Fighterbomber channel it is a baseless rumor as T-22M3 has no chance of pulling attacks off at the range UMPK can be used and surviving.
glenn239 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: And yet, the Russians clearly didnt get any POW's, because they have returned to using old footage to portray a new success. MSC indicated that the 72nd Brigade, (elite) gave up no prisoners, and that roughly half the troops withdrawing were either killed or injured running across the fire sack. The 870 prisoners were stated to be poor quality territorial units sent in recently to take over the 72nd Brigade positions. Edited October 3, 2024 by glenn239
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 Sounds about as convincing as Elvis owning a Chip shop in Dudley.
glenn239 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) 5 hours ago, bojan said: According to Fighterbomber channel it is a baseless rumor as T-22M3 has no chance of pulling attacks off at the range UMPK can be used and surviving. <edit> Russiabot Solidier 36 posted that it's an 1500kg fuel air bomb dropped by SU-34 Edited October 3, 2024 by glenn239
glenn239 Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 45 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Sounds about as convincing as Elvis owning a Chip shop in Dudley. Military Summary Channel has been tracking the battle for weeks, and just prior to the 72nd's withdrawal, using geolocated drone footage to establish frontline positions. With this method, they established that the last road out of town was completely under Russian fire control (FPV, Lancet, artillery, anti-tank missile) from positions astride the road before the 72nd started it's withdrawal. So, from that, if you want to believe some guy saying that the 72nd just marched by active fire positions in parade formations waving flags and singing songs, be my guest.
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 (edited) No, I want to believe the truth. If people want to illustrate this guy has got it hopelessly wrong, which is of course possible, then it doesnt seem unreasonable, since everyone is disagreeing, to see some drone footage of this Russian victory over the Ukrainians. Im sure the Russians have no problem providing any, since its such a good news story. That they fabricated at least some of that evidence to me has my spidey sense tingling. If there isnt any available, it to me suggest that yes, the balance of truth is probably with the Ukrainians. And ill retain that position till someone slaps some evidence on the table, whereupon Ill change my mind. Watch the mans channel. If anything he was critical of Kursk, worried about its future, and critical of other Ukrainian positions. But if you want to take against him based on your smartarse opinion, there is nothing I can do for you. Edited October 3, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith
Roman Alymov Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 11 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: You ever heard the one about Napoleon? I forget which battle it was. He said 'This battle is completely lost. But there is time to win another!' (looked it up, it was Marengo). And that is essentially what happened. You were on the ropes. Your men were being slaughtered. Your tanks were being stolen by Ukrainian farmers. The Kerch Bridge was blown up. Your national guard was in pieces, you Black Sea flagship was sunk. If we had supplied everything Ukraine now has, long range rockets, F16's, Western tanks and AFV's, artillery, Patriot missiles, right then as I was expecting, this war would be over now, and Putin, if anywhere, dangling from the Kremlin wall. But we dithered and whined, and pointed pointed to the Russian nuclear stockpile, as if it was an excuse. We blew it. It wasnt Ukraines failure, it was ours, as will be the consequences. Or maybe Putin will have a heart attack. We may yet get luck we dont deserve. If it happened to Genghis Khan, it can happen to anyone. I'm affraid you live in the word of illusions created for you by your media. By the time, as you claim, Russia "was on the ropes" - Moscow anmd other big cities were, as usaual for years before that, full of massive public holidays (usual tool used by pro-Western elite to distract public attention from their looting the country), world's longest subway line was launched in Moscow, infrastructure, roads and housing constructed at record volumes (surpassing Soviet years - still are, by the way), and so on. Our Gov was making the country to ignore the war. But it was you guys who have changed that - now some notoriously corrupt officials are in prison (and new ones arrested next to daily), pro-Russian volunteer battalion commanders appointed Presidential representatives in major industrial regions*, blue-collar jobs are again in demand (and payed above office jobs for the first time since USSR collapse if not earlier), key plants de-privatized (=taken back from West hands), Russian producers replacing Western ones on domestic market and so on. Congratulations, your leaderswhip have defeated own colonial administration that was ruling Russia FOR YOU and was only asking for more confortable conditions of this rule FOR THEM PERSONALLY AND AS CLASS. Great achievement. Now this people are gone or forced (unwillingly) to change theior policy. Look at how brilliant your politicians are in running your own country, the place they are suppoosed to know best, and imagine how good they are in international affairs, especially in places they got no idea about. *note they may be not the best people- for example, recently appoin Aryom Zhoga was strongly criticized by Strelkov, but at least he do not have palace in London or villa in Italy - but have lost son on this war.
Roman Alymov Posted October 3, 2024 Posted October 3, 2024 Interestingly, pro-Russians have found 116 civilians in Ugledar after liberating it - while pro-Ukrainians have claimed there were only 107 left. It means some people were HIDING from pro-Ukrainians in the city that was frontline for 2+ years.... https://t.me/boris_rozhin/139598
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