Kiev Is Burning

[MiGG0]

10 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

As Israel is rapidly proving, what superpowers want to do, and what events force them to do, is sometimes radically different.  America in 1940 was determined to sit out WW2. 2 years later they were bombing Germany.

True, but in this I agree with Glenn. USA (or NATO) is not going to enter war that would almost certainly lead nuclear exchange and WW3. As I said almost 2 years ago, it is just matter of time (depending material aid they get) when UKR loses.

[Josh]

19 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

True, but in this I agree with Glenn. USA (or NATO) is not going to enter war that would almost certainly lead nuclear exchange and WW3. As I said almost 2 years ago, it is just matter of time (depending material aid they get) when UKR loses.

I agree NATO is not getting involved, but I could easily see the war stretching on for a couple years if Ukraine is supplied at current levels. There will be no maneuver based coup de grace by either side, so it simply comes down to political will. Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time; the high water mark for Russia in terms of territory was March 2022. And now Ukraine has demonstrated an ability to strike semi hard target hundreds of miles inside Russia with up to a hundred missiles/drones. Given a steady stream of ammunition, there’s no reason they could not prolong the war indefinitely - it could take years just secure everything east of the Dneiper.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, mandeb48 said:

Nothing about this war has been worth it in general, but the issue of Vugeldar has a logistical background, although its importance is difficult to quantify. There is a double-track railway that goes from Donetsk to Mauryopol, this was too close to the front to be useful. It passes approximately 20 km from Vuhledar.  To solve this problem Russia built a single-track bypass further south. But if the front moves west/northwest it could improve the possibility of restoring the original railway with greater capacity.

https://t.me/periskop_pacific/5371

On the map: 1 was the front until now
3 is the original railways
4 is the new bypass

The map, green "Царь-поезд" is long line of railway cars parked as barrier against expected pro-Ukmr offencive (was discussed here)

[MiGG0]

26 minutes ago, Josh said:

I agree NATO is not getting involved, but I could easily see the war stretching on for a couple years if Ukraine is supplied at current levels. There will be no maneuver based coup de grace by either side, so it simply comes down to political will. Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time; the high water mark for Russia in terms of territory was March 2022. And now Ukraine has demonstrated an ability to strike semi hard target hundreds of miles inside Russia with up to a hundred missiles/drones. Given a steady stream of ammunition, there’s no reason they could not prolong the war indefinitely - it could take years just secure everything east of the Dneiper.

Current levels are not enough. Europe pretty much have given everything it can and USA current aid wont be enough to keep replacing all lost material. Bigger problem is attrition of troops. RUS can keep this attrition rate quite long, but UKR already has huge problems in Donbass and its recruitment is already "forced mobilization".

Collapse will not be steady line. It will be slow degration first (which is happening now) and then suddenly all will collapse.

Edited October 2, 2024 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

22 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

True, but in this I agree with Glenn. USA (or NATO) is not going to enter war that would almost certainly lead nuclear exchange and WW3. As I said almost 2 years ago, it is just matter of time (depending material aid they get) when UKR loses.

Berlin (twice), Korea, Formosa, Vietnam... History is replete with them. Did you know that in 1957, the US Navy was just 2 hours away from putting down nuclear strikes in China over Formosa? Completely unpredictable to outsiders, and nobody knew till Daniel ellsburg released the documents 50 years later.

The key point is when Ukraine breaks, and who is in the white house then. Once again, we failed the easy solution. Now it will probably be the hard one, and nobody should say in advance that it can't happen, just because you don't like the idea.

I said long ago it needed to end quickly, or it would escalate. Still true.

[MiGG0]

None of those were directly against Nuclear power (China got it -64). Which makes things totally different as USA in that exchange is going to lose also.

[Roman Alymov]

10 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The key point is when Ukraine breaks, and who is in the white house then.

Wasn't it you who claimed two years ago that Russia have allready lost? Now you are blaming your political leadership for lack of action exactly for believing the same at the same timeframe (as two years ago your media were full of stories of Russia out of everything, collapsong and Putin almost dead). Your politicians trusted your press (or, better say, they are the same group of arrogant and incompetent peopl,e sitting on all branches of power). 

   So, if you insist that you "failed the easy solution"  -isn't it logical fror you to demand, first and foremost, changes in your local political elite? We see this changes here in Russia (for example, today Artyom Zhoga, ex-commander of "Sparta" btn of Donetsk militia, was appointed Presidential representative in Urals federal district).Not sure it is good appointment (Strelkov was skeptical about this man whom he knew from 2014), but still it is massive change in comprador pro-Western elites....

[Roman Alymov]

Geran' drones attack as filmed from Romanian side of the river https://t.me/dva_majors/54211

[Roman Alymov]

POWs from 47th mech brigade captured in Kursk region - indication that pro-Ukrainians (or, actually, NATO planners) consider Kursk direction as priority one https://t.me/milinfolive/131934

[Yama]

5 hours ago, JWB said:

Create a desert and call it peace.

 

Bomb can be very briefly seen before the explosion, arriving at quite a steep angle.

AIUI, 'Father of all Bombs' can be dropped only by a cargo plane, seems unlikely it's being used there. Also I don't think the explosion is quite as large. It's either some  missile with thermobaric warhead, or some other large bomb - perhaps UMPK version of FAB-5000 which was rumoured to be in use.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

Collapse will not be steady line. It will be slow degration first (which is happening now) and then suddenly all will collapse.

I think there's a bit of an avalanche dynamic going on as well.  As the collapse continues the pace of collapse accelerates, and as that happens, the harder it is for Western assistance poured in to even slow things down, let alone reverse the tide.

 

[ink]

28 minutes ago, Yama said:

Bomb can be very briefly seen before the explosion, arriving at quite a steep angle.

AIUI, 'Father of all Bombs' can be dropped only by a cargo plane, seems unlikely it's being used there. Also I don't think the explosion is quite as large. It's either some  missile with thermobaric warhead, or some other large bomb - perhaps UMPK version of FAB-5000 which was rumoured to be in use.

I heard on the radio today (Sputnik) that the Russians were claiming to have hit an ammo dump in Kharkov oblast - could that be this video?

[bojan]

6 hours ago, JWB said:

Create a desert and call it peace.

 

You should not throw rocks in the glass house

It is ODAB-1500.

ODAB-9000:

- does not exist

- even if it existed there is no plane in RUAF capable of carrying it. Last planes capable of carrying FAB-9000 were Blinders.

 

[bojan]

55 minutes ago, Yama said:

... perhaps UMPK version of FAB-5000 which was rumoured to be in use.

Nothing larger than FAB-3000 is used as there is no suitable carrier aircraft. 5000s would require Tu-22M3 and that is just a no go.

[JWB]

1 hour ago, bojan said:

You should not throw rocks in the glass house

❔

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, bojan said:

Nothing larger than FAB-3000 is used as there is no suitable carrier aircraft. 5000s would require Tu-22M3 and that is just a no go.

The whole story of ODAB=9000 was created from nothing after somebody have croped the video of ODAB-1500 hit to make it look more impressive https://t.me/rusarmywin/460

[Roman Alymov]

Artillery vs. PzH-2000 SPG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/139511

[seahawk]

6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I think there's a bit of an avalanche dynamic going on as well.  As the collapse continues the pace of collapse accelerates, and as that happens, the harder it is for Western assistance poured in to even slow things down, let alone reverse the tide.

 

That is a great comparison. In the end the Ukraine will be crushed.

[Josh]

9 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

Current levels are not enough. Europe pretty much have given everything it can and USA current aid wont be enough to keep replacing all lost material. Bigger problem is attrition of troops. RUS can keep this attrition rate quite long, but UKR already has huge problems in Donbass and its recruitment is already "forced mobilization".

Collapse will not be steady line. It will be slow degration first (which is happening now) and then suddenly all will collapse.

Collapse is not a steady line nor a predictable thing. Most everything about how Russia runs the war: its treatment of civilians and POWs, its active attempts to starve and freeze the population…rather ensure that everyone knows exactly how bad it will be if Russia wins. Perhaps there will be a collapse tomorrow, perhaps next year. Perhaps the year after. Glenn has predicted one since at least last fall.

Edited October 3, 2024 by Josh

[MiGG0]

26 minutes ago, Josh said:

Collapse is not a steady line nor a predictable thing. Most everything about how Russia runs the war: its treatment of civilians and POWs, its active attempts to starve and freeze the population…rather ensure that everyone knows exactly how bad it will be if Russia wins. Perhaps there will be a collapse tomorrow, perhaps next year. Perhaps the year after. Glenn has predicted one since at least last fall.

Yes and that why I said it is not steady line. Comparison like ”this rate it takes X amount if time to reach Dnepr” is not usable. When it happens (and question is when, not if), UKR lose large areas fast as there in almost no troops to block any RUS advence. There is already lot of gaps in Donbass defence which RUS use to make those pincer attacks. Vuhlnedar was one of those.

Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

I just looked up this podcaster about the evacuation of Vuhlevar, and he is usually scrupulous honest in calling it when the Ukrainians fuck up. He says the withdrawal was in good order, and the Russians didnt get any prisoners at all. All the ones seen were captured in the early stages of the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk.

Still, it doesnt erase the fact there is a growing problem. Unless Ukraine can somehow create more battlefield reverses, and my guess is they cant, their only hope right now is the Russian regime collapses. Which to me strikes me as rather like the Russians relying on Trump to win to score an end to the war they can cope with. If one were a writer, you would call it a Deux Ex Machina, which of course happen, but somewhat futile to depend on one.

[MiGG0]

Yeah and this"honest" channel says totally opposite (for short 870 pows capture and huge losses to units that tried to leave. To be honest I believe this as RUS did have firecontrol very long to remaining supply route):
 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2024 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Wasn't it you who claimed two years ago that Russia have allready lost? Now you are blaming your political leadership for lack of action exactly for believing the same at the same timeframe (as two years ago your media were full of stories of Russia out of everything, collapsong and Putin almost dead). Your politicians trusted your press (or, better say, they are the same group of arrogant and incompetent peopl,e sitting on all branches of power). 

   So, if you insist that you "failed the easy solution"  -isn't it logical fror you to demand, first and foremost, changes in your local political elite? We see this changes here in Russia (for example, today Artyom Zhoga, ex-commander of "Sparta" btn of Donetsk militia, was appointed Presidential representative in Urals federal district).Not sure it is good appointment (Strelkov was skeptical about this man whom he knew from 2014), but still it is massive change in comprador pro-Western elites....

You ever heard the one about Napoleon? I forget which battle it was. He said 'This battle is completely lost. But there is time to win another!' (looked it up, it was Marengo). And that is essentially what happened.

You were on the ropes. Your men were being slaughtered. Your tanks were being stolen by Ukrainian farmers. The Kerch Bridge was blown up. Your national guard was in pieces, you Black Sea flagship was sunk.  If we had supplied everything Ukraine now has, long range rockets, F16's, Western tanks and AFV's, artillery, Patriot missiles, right then as I was expecting, this war would be over now, and Putin, if anywhere, dangling from the Kremlin wall. But we dithered and whined, and pointed pointed to the Russian nuclear stockpile, as if it was an excuse.

We blew it. It wasnt Ukraines failure, it was ours, as will be the consequences.

Or maybe Putin will have a heart attack. We may yet get luck we dont deserve. If it happened to Genghis Khan, it can happen to anyone.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 minute ago, MiGG0 said:

Yeah and this"honest" channel says totally opposite:
 

 

 

Dont know that channel, and this guy I like has been perfectly honest in the past, not least about when the Ukrainians fire someone they shouldnt, or when they do something stupid on the battlefield. he was also among the first to say Ukraine coudlnt possibly reach Kursk, and didnt believe that was even the objective.

Nobody is flawless, but if anyone is worth trusting, its him. Go look among his past videos if you dont believe me.

[MiGG0]

2 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Dont know that channel, and this guy I like has been perfectly honest in the past, not least about when the Ukrainians fire someone they shouldnt, or when they do something stupid on the battlefield. he was also among the first to say Ukraine coudlnt possibly reach Kursk, and didnt believe that was even the objective.

Nobody is flawless, but if anyone is worth trusting, its him. Go look among his past videos if you dont believe me.

As I edited in my post. While I consider military summary channel as more "PRO RUS" (but it really is somewhat "honest" in sense as it will report RUS fuck ups and UKR wins aswell -> It tries to be "neutral") I believe it more as RUS had firecontrol over last supply route quite some time adn they monitored it constantly. Also there are other UKR reports that retreat was not organised. They left without any orders to do so.