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Posted
1 minute ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

An interesting Russian site that deals with the losses of both sides. It is currently estimated that Russian losses are greater than the increase in personnel through mobilization.
@It explains in detail how to get the numbers.

https://teletype.in/@volyamedia/3xP8Ivc9h2u

I have not looked at it, but that seems like a huge stretch given the scope of mobilization. But on the other hand we get into really squishy metrics like casualties being returned to service or even the same soldiers wounded or captured multiple times, which is why I try to avoid casualty discussions.

Posted
5 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I hope somebody would care to put it to YouTube later.

The train was hit when static (Rus source say it was offloading, but it is not clear from the video).

It's posted on Youtube via Military Summary Channel's daily report.Ā  Looks like the train was stopped, but the hit is more evidence that the Russian command and control decision loop for targets of opportunity has become very tight.Ā Ā 

Ā 

Posted
4 hours ago, Josh said:

I have not looked at it, but that seems like a huge stretch given the scope of mobilization. But on the other hand we get into really squishy metrics like casualties being returned to service or even the same soldiers wounded or captured multiple times, which is why I try to avoid casualty discussions.

The sight is indicating that the Ukrainians have a 2.5:1 advantage in casualties in the Kursk region, this despite being on the attack against a massive Russian firepower advantage.Ā  Ukrainian casualties are claimed to be about 4,500 so far, while the Russian army has the Ukrainians at 18,900 casualties in Kursk so far.

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The sight is indicating that the Ukrainians have a 2.5:1 advantage in casualties in the Kursk region, this despite being on the attack against a massive Russian firepower advantage.Ā  Ukrainian casualties are claimed to be about 4,500 so far, while the Russian army has the Ukrainians at 18,900 casualties in Kursk so far.

Given that Russia was running troops into Kursk from anywhere they could piecemeal, it would not shock me. Especially if as you contend, they were all green conscripts. Though I note you did not respond to my request for sources on that matter.

But I doubt all casualties numbers from all sides.

Edited by Josh
Posted
6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Frankly I'm surprised to see it taking so long for Russian drones to start targeting Ukrainian locomotives.Ā  I recall two years ago thinking that this would be done....back in 2022.

Nothing to be surprised by, note Russian NG and oil are still pumped into Ukraine - and, more over, Russia is paying for it.Ā 

Posted

Video from captured pro-Ukr positions on Southdonbass #3 coalmine buildings, giving idea why it took years to capture (and it is not the highest points of coalmine buildings complex - as main 115m tower was destroyed with pro-Ukrainian ATGM and MG teams still on top of it) Note emptyĀ FGM-148 Javelin tubeĀ Ā https://t.me/milinfolive/131771

Posted
15 hours ago, Josh said:

Given that Russia was running troops into Kursk from anywhere they could piecemeal, it would not shock me. Especially if as you contend, they were all green conscripts. Though I note you did not respond to my request for sources on that matter.

I responded to your request for a source earlier by posting two pieces =, one each showing you that Russia runs two armies, a conscript army in Russia and a contractor army for Ukraine.Ā Ā 

Posted
Just now, glenn239 said:

I responded to your request for a source earlier by posting two pieces =, one each showing you that Russia runs two armies, a conscript army in Russia and a contractor army for Ukraine.Ā Ā 

Could you point me to them again? I must have missed it.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Josh said:

Could you point me to them again? I must have missed it.

Just google Russian conscript doctrine and articles will come up for you.Ā  Here is paywalled,

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/01/russias-autumn-conscription-how-many-of-the-133000-draftees-will-end-up-in-ukraine

But it states,

Current law states that conscripts cannot be deployed to combat with less than four months of training and cannot be deployed outside of Russia

Posted (edited)

So, Ukraine IS outside Russia.

I really MUST fire my smelling fingers.........

Edited by Mike1158
Smelling pishtake
Posted
1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Just google Russian conscript doctrine and articles will come up for you.Ā  Here is paywalled,

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/01/russias-autumn-conscription-how-many-of-the-133000-draftees-will-end-up-in-ukraine

But it states,

Current law states that conscripts cannot be deployed to combat with less than four months of training and cannot be deployed outside of Russia


From the first link:

ā€œ

Ivan Chuvilyaev said that conscripts are increasingly being forced to sign contacts with the Russian military. "An enlisted soldier finds himself in a very difficult situation. In fact, he has no options not to be on a contract," Chuvilyaev told Euronews.Ā 

He explained that at first, soldiers are persuaded to do so with arguments like "everyone has signed, but you haven't yet, and everyone has received money, but you haven't."Ā 

If this doesn't work, they are promised things, such as "If you sign, we will send you to serve in a safe region somewhere in the Urals or Siberia or close to home (and) if you don't sign, you will go to a zone where conscripts can be sent by law."

ā€œ


ā€¦and also:

ā€"Finally, the main thing is that the practice of falsifying documents is very widely used. The contract is signed for the conscript (by recruiters who) put an 'x' in the signature box. The soldier finds out about it when he receives a bank card and documents about allowance," Chuvilyaev explained.Ā 

ā€

ā€¦so while perhaps in theory there are two bodies of troops, it seems in practice a lot of conscripts end up Ukraine anyway.

Ā 

Posted
5 hours ago, Josh said:

ā€¦so while perhaps in theory there are two bodies of troops, it seems in practice a lot of conscripts end up Ukraine anyway.

Roman?Ā  Do conscripts wind up in Ukraine against their will, or are they kept in Russia?

Posted
1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Roman?Ā  Do conscripts wind up in Ukraine against their will, or are they kept in Russia?

We know naval infantry and VDV are operating in Kursk, including multiple units of the latter. So either there are not enough conscripts, conscripts are of so low quality they are useless, or Mobilā€™s are being supplied to NI/VDV formations. That is not to say all formations in Kursk are obvious contractors, but certainly those two types of unit are not new mobik formations.

Posted
7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Roman?Ā  Do conscripts wind up in Ukraine against their will, or are they kept in Russia?

First of all,Ā  your question is based on false assumptionĀ  - in fact, most of current frontline is within constitutional borders of Russian Federation (except small part in Kharkov region). There were cases of conscript soldiers (~600 men in total) in units in Kiev region in Feb 2022 (as forces were moved in without preparation and on short notice, so there was no way for commanders to replace, for example, conscript truck drivers).Ā  With current frontline, there is very little chances of Russian soldiers, conscripts or not, to "wind up in Ukraine".

Ā  Ā  Second, i am not legal professional and do not remember is it any legal limitations on conscripts service outside of Russian borders except Presidential decree of 1999 that states that conscript could only be sent to service outside of Russia with his conscent (but, again, i may be wrong). As far as i remember, there were cases of conscripts serving on Russian base in Armenia.

Ā  Ā  Ā Third, there is some sort of "promise" By General Staff that conscripts (even ones recruited from new regions) will not be sent to "conflict zones" and "new regions" (both are not legally defined) - as result, we have idiotic situation of, for example, boy from Donetsk, who have spent most of his childhood (from 8 to 18) under pro-Ukr shelling, required to be sent somewhere to deep rear when conscripted into Army. At the same time, conscripts on Belgorod or Kursk border are not in "new regions" and not in "conflict zones"Ā  and are facing NATO tanks even without recieving war zone payments.

Ā  Ā  Ā In general, Russian elite's efforts to ignore war and pretend nothing is happened are creating strange situations.

Posted

Unfortunately that is invalidated by an undertaking in 2022, when a large number of Conscripts were killed in Ukraine, and it was given as an understanding that no more conscripts would be sent there, and they would be replaced by contract soldiers. So retroactively classifying Ukrainian territory as 'Russia' is a useful expedient, but I think we can clearly identify this is a game of smoke and mirrors because they are presumably running out of Soldiers. I somehow doubt the mothers unions will be much impressed in any case.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Unfortunately that is invalidated by an undertaking in 2022, when a large number of Conscripts were killed in Ukraine,Ā 

Ā  Ā See my post above, "There were cases of conscript soldiers (~600 men in total) in units in Kiev region in Feb 2022 (as forces were moved in without preparation and on short notice, so there was no way for commanders to replace, for example, conscript truck drivers)."

15 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Ā So retroactively classifying Ukrainian territory as 'Russia' is a useful expedient, but I think we can clearly identify this is a game of smoke and mirrors because they are presumably running out of Soldiers.Ā 

Ā  No more "running out of missiles", "tyres", "shells" - now we are "running out of Soldiers".....Ā  Actually what we see is collapse of pro-Western comprador system in Russia, as solving every new problem takes model schange (and changes in management). Now our local bureoucracy is taking obviously unproductive steps to boost volunteers turnoutĀ  - because they hope to keep "business as usual".Ā  No doubt they will fail, and new wave of mobilization will be finally launched (to counter new mobilization effrorts by Kiev, where 900k new mobilization notices are planned to be sent in next three month).Ā  And new nobilization will mean more aremed citizens, with experience of war and extremely angry at both West and West's local cronys.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Ā  Ā See my post above, "There were cases of conscript soldiers (~600 men in total) in units in Kiev region in Feb 2022 (as forces were moved in without preparation and on short notice, so there was no way for commanders to replace, for example, conscript truck drivers)."

Ā  No more "running out of missiles", "tyres", "shells" - now we are "running out of Soldiers".....Ā  Actually what we see is collapse of pro-Western comprador system in Russia, as solving every new problem takes model schange (and changes in management). Now our local bureoucracy is taking obviously unproductive steps to boost volunteers turnoutĀ  - because they hope to keep "business as usual".Ā  No doubt they will fail, and new wave of mobilization will be finally launched (to counter new mobilization effrorts by Kiev, where 900k new mobilization notices are planned to be sent in next three month).Ā  And new nobilization will mean more aremed citizens, with experience of war and extremely angry at both West and West's local cronys.

Yes, and they promised they wouldnt go to Ukraine again. Which they solved, by turning the terrain they were standing on into Russia. Great Success!

Ā 

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