Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Russians are moving towards using Shahed and other cheap drones as very deep range reconnaissance and strike platforms.

They obviously use them as strike platforms; I see no evidence of them being ISR assets.

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

They obviously use them as strike platforms; I see no evidence of them being ISR assets.

ISR would require some type of satellite signal transmitting the data back, something the Russians simply lack with their drones. A Shahed drone won’t be useful for ISR in this manner 

[Stuart Galbraith]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

But this was a UAV over Ukraine. And there’s a lot of gray zones in Ukraine. Is it a Russian scout team or Ukrainian? Is it a Russian UAV or Ukrainian? Starlink is hardly a system designed with IFF in mind. Geo fencing is probably pretty trivial, but anything inside Ukrainian occupied territory probably works by default.

Yes, but its launching inside Russia. It should be possible to figure out if a weapon is launching in Russia with the starlink disabled, it shouldnt somehow suddenly activate inside Ukraine. I struggle to believe they cant figure that out.

[Soren Ras]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, but its launching inside Russia. It should be possible to figure out if a weapon is launching in Russia with the starlink disabled, it shouldnt somehow suddenly activate inside Ukraine. I struggle to believe they cant figure that out.

How do we know it was launched from Russian soil as opposed to Russian occupied Ukrainian soil? 

 

--

Soren

[Yama]

I think Starlink has occupied territories locked out too.

Can Starlink block individual transceivers? If they can detect the speed it is moving somehow, and decide "hmm, that one is suspicious".

[Stuart Galbraith]

43 minutes ago, Soren Ras said:

How do we know it was launched from Russian soil as opposed to Russian occupied Ukrainian soil? 

 

--

Soren

As far as practical purposes are concerned, occupied Ukrainian soil IS Russian soil.

We might pretend there is a difference between Russia and Crimea, but as far as the war is concerned, there isnt, and no reason why Starlink cant and shouldnt view it that way.

[Stuart Galbraith]

32 minutes ago, Yama said:

I think Starlink has occupied territories locked out too.

Can Starlink block individual transceivers? If they can detect the speed it is moving somehow, and decide "hmm, that one is suspicious".

Wellllll.... Chechens are claiming he can remotely turn off a Tesla truck. Although, judging by what a POS the thing is, quite possibly it just failed without any intervention. They do it in LA all the time, I cant imagine it does any better on the battlefield.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chechen-leader-s-cybertruck-equipped-with-machine-gun-remotely-disabled-by-tesla/ar-AA1qXBIx?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[Josh]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

ISR would require some type of satellite signal transmitting the data back, something the Russians simply lack with their drones. A Shahed drone won’t be useful for ISR in this manner 

It would also require them to have sensors to gather worth while information, and ideally some mechanism for recovery since Starlink a ISR equipment really is no longer a cheap single use UAV.

[Yama]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Wellllll.... Chechens are claiming he can remotely turn off a Tesla truck. Although, judging by what a POS the thing is, quite possibly it just failed without any intervention. They do it in LA all the time, I cant imagine it does any better on the battlefield.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chechen-leader-s-cybertruck-equipped-with-machine-gun-remotely-disabled-by-tesla/ar-AA1qXBIx?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Not much of an endorsement for that boondoggle, is it?  Either it breaks down on its own, or Musk can shut it down remotely at his whim.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, Yama said:

Not much of an endorsement for that boondoggle, is it?  Either it breaks down on its own, or Musk can shut it down remotely at his whim.

At this point, I have to seriously wonder why people eulogise him. He makes Howard Hughes looks calm, level headed, and a world class engineer.

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, Josh said:

They obviously use them as strike platforms; I see no evidence of them being ISR assets.

The Ukrainian take on the matter,

Russia equips Shahed drones with Starlink, increasing their danger – Defense Express – photo | Ukrainska Pravda

Defense Express emphasised that this development primarily transforms a Shahed drone into a reconnaissance tool. 

With Starlink, Russians can use a Shahed drone as an extremely long-range loitering munition capable of additional reconnaissance with an extra camera, and which can even strike moving targets.

Edited September 26 by glenn239

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

It would also require them to have sensors to gather worth while information, and ideally some mechanism for recovery since Starlink a ISR equipment really is no longer a cheap single use UAV.

You're not seriously attempting to argue that a Shahed drone properly with satellite uplink would be too expensive to hunt Patriots missiles, jet aircraft, and other high value targets, are you?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Shocker, when you put expensive items on a drone, suddenly the drone becomes expensive!

[glenn239]

Russia has altered its nuclear doctrine in order to respond to deep strike missile attacks using British or American weapons with nuclear weapons.  Ukraine says they're bluffing,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-putin-s-statements-just-deterrence-tactic-isw/ar-AA1re9qN?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LSJS&cvid=4d41d2d18f0b46b5bcf650f54bb334d2&ei=22

 

[glenn239]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

Shocker, when you put expensive items on a drone, suddenly the drone becomes expensive!

Josh is arguing that if a Shahed has a $50,000 (or whatever) satellite and camera package attached, that this would make it too expensive to go hunt $65,000,000 F-35 aircraft.  That conclusion would not be my first guess.  Nor would it be my 100th guess.

[Stuart Galbraith]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Russia has altered its nuclear doctrine in order to respond to deep strike missile attacks using British or American weapons with nuclear weapons.  Ukraine says they're bluffing,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-putin-s-statements-just-deterrence-tactic-isw/ar-AA1re9qN?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LSJS&cvid=4d41d2d18f0b46b5bcf650f54bb334d2&ei=22

 

They are bluffing. And what is more, we have been attacking Russian territory for well over a year, and we are still here.

Oh whats that you say, Crimea ISNT Russian territory? Well thats odd, because Putin has been saying that since 2014, Shurely shome mishtake?

[Mike1158]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They are bluffing. And what is more, we have been attacking Russian territory for well over a year, and we are still here.

Oh whats that you say, Crimea ISNT Russian territory? Well thats odd, because Putin has been saying that since 2014, Shurely shome mishtake?

No, it merely smells of 'shitrus'.

[txtree99]

I find it funny that Glenn is now an ISR expert. 

[mkenny]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They are bluffing.................

Yep, just like they were bluffing when they said they would invade. 

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Ukrainian take on the matter,

Russia equips Shahed drones with Starlink, increasing their danger – Defense Express – photo | Ukrainska Pravda

Defense Express emphasised that this development primarily transforms a Shahed drone into a reconnaissance tool. 

With Starlink, Russians can use a Shahed drone as an extremely long-range loitering munition capable of additional reconnaissance with an extra camera, and which can even strike moving targets.

Fair enough, if they put a camera on it, then they can get data back. Throwing away a Starlink antenna has to add a lot to the cost of a throw away drone though.

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You're not seriously attempting to argue that a Shahed drone properly with satellite uplink would be too expensive to hunt Patriots missiles, jet aircraft, and other high value targets, are you?

As a one time use asset that might find nothing or be shot down by a machine gun, I would say it is less than ideal. But since Russia lacks any technical ability to make its own long distance ISR kill chain, it makes sense that they would expand in this direction. I would not want to rely on U.S. satellites for my NATO war, however.

Edited September 26 by Josh

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Josh is arguing that if a Shahed has a $50,000 (or whatever) satellite and camera package attached, that this would make it too expensive to go hunt $65,000,000 F-35 aircraft.  That conclusion would not be my first guess.  Nor would it be my 100th guess.

I am arguing that if you have to expend a  $100,000 worth of equipment at the mere attempt of an act of recon, yes it is a pricey business model. If Shahed is a one way UAV with a flight performance lower than that of a biplane, then it would probably be more apt to say you are trading a hundred $100,000 UAVs for the opportunity to kill an F-35. And you assume NATO has an Ukraine level of air defense and ECM and that Starlink would be available in a NATO war. That last point seems…very unlikely.

 

But I know how you like to extrapolate: a cheap one way drone with western sat com = dead Patriot.

Edited September 26 by Josh

[Josh]

4 hours ago, txtree99 said:

I find it funny that Glenn is now an ISR expert. 

He is a font of knowledge and casualty information unlike any other.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, txtree99 said:

I find it funny that Glenn is now an ISR expert. 

Doesn't take an ISR expert to figure out that a Shahed drone hooked up to Starlink, (in the future, whatever the Sino-Russian equivalent to Starlink shall be) is a pretty cheap way to hunt ground targets great distances behind enemy lines. 

Edited September 26 by glenn239

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, mkenny said:

Yep, just like they were bluffing when they said they would invade. 

I've no idea either way, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Russians are not bluffing.  Might even be in their interests to let Ukraine have it with some tactical nuclear about 2 days before the US election in November.  Imagine, if you will, the pieces of shit in the US main stream media whining like bitches that Putin was interfering in an election by scaring US voters into casting their lot for Trump.  :^)

Edited September 26 by glenn239