Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

32 minutes ago, Yama said:

I think Starlink has occupied territories locked out too.

Can Starlink block individual transceivers? If they can detect the speed it is moving somehow, and decide "hmm, that one is suspicious".

Wellllll.... Chechens are claiming he can remotely turn off a Tesla truck. Although, judging by what a POS the thing is, quite possibly it just failed without any intervention. They do it in LA all the time, I cant imagine it does any better on the battlefield.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chechen-leader-s-cybertruck-equipped-with-machine-gun-remotely-disabled-by-tesla/ar-AA1qXBIx?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[Josh]

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

ISR would require some type of satellite signal transmitting the data back, something the Russians simply lack with their drones. A Shahed drone won’t be useful for ISR in this manner 

It would also require them to have sensors to gather worth while information, and ideally some mechanism for recovery since Starlink a ISR equipment really is no longer a cheap single use UAV.

[Yama]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Wellllll.... Chechens are claiming he can remotely turn off a Tesla truck. Although, judging by what a POS the thing is, quite possibly it just failed without any intervention. They do it in LA all the time, I cant imagine it does any better on the battlefield.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chechen-leader-s-cybertruck-equipped-with-machine-gun-remotely-disabled-by-tesla/ar-AA1qXBIx?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Not much of an endorsement for that boondoggle, is it?  Either it breaks down on its own, or Musk can shut it down remotely at his whim.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, Yama said:

Not much of an endorsement for that boondoggle, is it?  Either it breaks down on its own, or Musk can shut it down remotely at his whim.

At this point, I have to seriously wonder why people eulogise him. He makes Howard Hughes looks calm, level headed, and a world class engineer.

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, Josh said:

They obviously use them as strike platforms; I see no evidence of them being ISR assets.

The Ukrainian take on the matter,

Russia equips Shahed drones with Starlink, increasing their danger – Defense Express – photo | Ukrainska Pravda

Defense Express emphasised that this development primarily transforms a Shahed drone into a reconnaissance tool. 

With Starlink, Russians can use a Shahed drone as an extremely long-range loitering munition capable of additional reconnaissance with an extra camera, and which can even strike moving targets.

Edited September 26, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

It would also require them to have sensors to gather worth while information, and ideally some mechanism for recovery since Starlink a ISR equipment really is no longer a cheap single use UAV.

You're not seriously attempting to argue that a Shahed drone properly with satellite uplink would be too expensive to hunt Patriots missiles, jet aircraft, and other high value targets, are you?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Shocker, when you put expensive items on a drone, suddenly the drone becomes expensive!

[glenn239]

Russia has altered its nuclear doctrine in order to respond to deep strike missile attacks using British or American weapons with nuclear weapons.  Ukraine says they're bluffing,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-putin-s-statements-just-deterrence-tactic-isw/ar-AA1re9qN?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LSJS&cvid=4d41d2d18f0b46b5bcf650f54bb334d2&ei=22

 

[glenn239]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

Shocker, when you put expensive items on a drone, suddenly the drone becomes expensive!

Josh is arguing that if a Shahed has a $50,000 (or whatever) satellite and camera package attached, that this would make it too expensive to go hunt $65,000,000 F-35 aircraft.  That conclusion would not be my first guess.  Nor would it be my 100th guess.

[Stuart Galbraith]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Russia has altered its nuclear doctrine in order to respond to deep strike missile attacks using British or American weapons with nuclear weapons.  Ukraine says they're bluffing,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-putin-s-statements-just-deterrence-tactic-isw/ar-AA1re9qN?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LSJS&cvid=4d41d2d18f0b46b5bcf650f54bb334d2&ei=22

 

They are bluffing. And what is more, we have been attacking Russian territory for well over a year, and we are still here.

Oh whats that you say, Crimea ISNT Russian territory? Well thats odd, because Putin has been saying that since 2014, Shurely shome mishtake?

[Mike1158]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They are bluffing. And what is more, we have been attacking Russian territory for well over a year, and we are still here.

Oh whats that you say, Crimea ISNT Russian territory? Well thats odd, because Putin has been saying that since 2014, Shurely shome mishtake?

No, it merely smells of 'shitrus'.

[txtree99]

I find it funny that Glenn is now an ISR expert. 

[mkenny]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They are bluffing.................

Yep, just like they were bluffing when they said they would invade. 

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Ukrainian take on the matter,

Russia equips Shahed drones with Starlink, increasing their danger – Defense Express – photo | Ukrainska Pravda

Defense Express emphasised that this development primarily transforms a Shahed drone into a reconnaissance tool. 

With Starlink, Russians can use a Shahed drone as an extremely long-range loitering munition capable of additional reconnaissance with an extra camera, and which can even strike moving targets.

Fair enough, if they put a camera on it, then they can get data back. Throwing away a Starlink antenna has to add a lot to the cost of a throw away drone though.

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You're not seriously attempting to argue that a Shahed drone properly with satellite uplink would be too expensive to hunt Patriots missiles, jet aircraft, and other high value targets, are you?

As a one time use asset that might find nothing or be shot down by a machine gun, I would say it is less than ideal. But since Russia lacks any technical ability to make its own long distance ISR kill chain, it makes sense that they would expand in this direction. I would not want to rely on U.S. satellites for my NATO war, however.

Edited September 26, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Josh is arguing that if a Shahed has a $50,000 (or whatever) satellite and camera package attached, that this would make it too expensive to go hunt $65,000,000 F-35 aircraft.  That conclusion would not be my first guess.  Nor would it be my 100th guess.

I am arguing that if you have to expend a  $100,000 worth of equipment at the mere attempt of an act of recon, yes it is a pricey business model. If Shahed is a one way UAV with a flight performance lower than that of a biplane, then it would probably be more apt to say you are trading a hundred $100,000 UAVs for the opportunity to kill an F-35. And you assume NATO has an Ukraine level of air defense and ECM and that Starlink would be available in a NATO war. That last point seems…very unlikely.

 

But I know how you like to extrapolate: a cheap one way drone with western sat com = dead Patriot.

Edited September 26, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

4 hours ago, txtree99 said:

I find it funny that Glenn is now an ISR expert. 

He is a font of knowledge and casualty information unlike any other.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, txtree99 said:

I find it funny that Glenn is now an ISR expert. 

Doesn't take an ISR expert to figure out that a Shahed drone hooked up to Starlink, (in the future, whatever the Sino-Russian equivalent to Starlink shall be) is a pretty cheap way to hunt ground targets great distances behind enemy lines. 

Edited September 26, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, mkenny said:

Yep, just like they were bluffing when they said they would invade. 

I've no idea either way, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Russians are not bluffing.  Might even be in their interests to let Ukraine have it with some tactical nuclear about 2 days before the US election in November.  Imagine, if you will, the pieces of shit in the US main stream media whining like bitches that Putin was interfering in an election by scaring US voters into casting their lot for Trump.  :^)

Edited September 26, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Fair enough, if they put a camera on it, then they can get data back. Throwing away a Starlink antenna has to add a lot to the cost of a throw away drone though.

Pretty sure that the cost of allowing the enemy's air force to rampage unhindered might be more than the cost of satellite datalinks, but opinions may differ.

An unconfirmed report this evening that the score is now Kinzhals 5, F-16's 0.

Quote

I am arguing that if you have to expend a  $100,000 worth of equipment at the mere attempt of an act of recon, yes it is a pricey business model. If Shahed is a one way UAV with a flight performance lower than that of a biplane, then it would probably be more apt to say you are trading a hundred $100,000 UAVs for the opportunity to kill an F-35

I think the general pattern is that most of the Shaheds will always be cheap low cost versions to suck up AD, and that any upgraded ones will only be a fraction of the strike package total...

 

Edited September 27, 2024 by glenn239

[txtree99]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Doesn't take an ISR expert to figure out that a Shahed drone hooked up to Starlink, (in the future, whatever the Sino-Russian equivalent to Starlink shall be) is a pretty cheap way to hunt ground targets great distances behind enemy lines. 

Can’t tell you how the cyber group would love this.   Unencrypted internet access.   

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Doesn't take an ISR expert to figure out that a Shahed drone hooked up to Starlink, (in the future, whatever the Sino-Russian equivalent to Starlink shall be) is a pretty cheap way to hunt ground targets great distances behind enemy lines. 

There is no Chinese equivalent to Starlink and Russia can barely keep its navigation satellites in orbit. Of the 24 active satellites, a third are past there expected lifetimes. Untypical think Elon is biting the hang that feeds him, Russia is not using Starlink in NATO countries, even assuming one way drones were cost effective.

 

Can you imagine how many one way drones NATO could throw at Russia, on top of stealth bombers and long range missiles? Imagine if all the missiles Russia fears now were launched on day one with NATO, as they likely would be.

[Josh]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I've no idea either way, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Russians are not bluffing.  Might even be in their interests to let Ukraine have it with some tactical nuclear about 2 days before the US election in November.  Imagine, if you will, the pieces of shit in the US main stream media whining like bitches that Putin was interfering in an election by scaring US voters into casting their lot for Trump.  :^)

Imagine the blowback four years later if Trump was seen to visibly suck Putin off. Plus Biden gets three months to do what he wants before hand.

 

I bet he would give and green light everything.

Edited September 27, 2024 by Josh

[seahawk]

With Trump this conflict will be over in a few months. He will not waste US money on this stupid war. Russia will win, order will be restored, sanctions will be dropped, trade will flow again. Everybody wins.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

With Trump this conflict will be over in a few months. He will not waste US money on this stupid war. Russia will win, order will be restored, sanctions will be dropped, trade will flow again. Everybody wins.

Well Trump and Russia would win.

is anyone going to speak up to show how Trump would stand up to Putin? Do we have any takers? 

Edited September 27, 2024 by Josh