Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

7 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

One can be given a warm place to sleep and enough food for 2 years as well.

They are alive after two years of captivity - unlike many pro-Russian prisoners who were tortured to death or just killed.  That is enough.

8 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Either the Ukrainians are trying to capture prisoners for exchange or they are 'not especially interested'.

Probably i have failed to explain it properly. Rus side is insisting on "first in-first out" approach, while Ukraine officials are not interested in regular UkrArmy soldiers POWs, while insisting on having first Azov members, Marines, officers etc. whom they could parade to their supporters. So the idea of " trying to capture prisoners" in Kursk region was to capture Russian CONSCRIPTS (whom, for political reasons, Russian Gov is considered as super valuable and priority for exchange) and exchange them for Azov etc. There was no way to capture conscripts except invading "non-combat zone" Russian territory, as Russian law is banning use of conscripts in combat duties except in time of official war.

16 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

And what business of frontline soldiers is whether Ukraine is interested in exchanges or not? 

It is exactly the business of frontline soldiers because they are the people who are risking their lives first while capturing prisoners, and then when escorting them for many miles across "gray zone" over mined land under constant strikes of artillery and drones (and pro-Ukrainians are known to especially attack those of their own troops who surrendered - to maintain discipline). So not every private is willing to put his life at risk saving the life of pro-Ukrainian, especially after what happened to those of them captured in Mariupol (who were airlifted by Abramovich's personal jet to Turkey and given best new iPhones as gifts "to call their families"). 

    So it is actually surprising POWs are still taken.

[Stuart Galbraith]

32 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Latvia to send almost it's entire recon armoured force to Ukraine ...

 

 

They may as well, they are probably full of fatigue cracks. Useful though, able to operate on amazingly low ground pressure, and with a 30mm cannon. They could be very useful during the wet season.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Eastern Border is worth listening to this time. He has good coverage of the background on the Drone operators that were 'executed', as well as some information on the envelopment in Kursk. There is talk of 32000 troops being bottled. I think maybe divide that by 10 would be closer to it.

https://theeasternborder.lv/podcast/war-in-ukraine-episode-237/

[Roman Alymov]

"Vikhr' " ATGM from Ka-52 vs. unidentified target through treeline https://t.me/infomil_live/10199

[ink]

21 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Speaking of stuff I heard in the podcasts, there seems to be something of a tactical envelopment underway in Kursk. Russians attacked the Ukrainian left flank, a Ukrainian counteroffensive came over the border and seems to have part enveloped them, with many bridges also being taken out with ATACMS. Hearing this from several different sources, so there is seemingly something in it.

It will be interesting to see, in terms of the validity of those podcasts, if anything comes of this. Presumably, if in a couple of weeks time it transpires that there was no envelopment, the credibility of these armchair analysts will be seriously impacted.

Conversely, if they turn out to have been right, I might start listening to those podcasts after all.

Edited September 17, 2024 by ink

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well there is a near envelopment, I think you can take that to the bank. The Russian sources have admitted the Ukrainians did come across the border and took a town to their rear. OTOH, there was a near envelopment at Pokrovsk, and the Ukrainians managed to pull out of that, without much trouble. They did the same at Bakhmut. It seems entirely possible, as has been the case in this war so far, that ground movements are so slow moving, the ability to kettle any enemy forces is nearly impossible. The only place I know its happened of with any numbers was Mariupol.

That said, it does appear the force ratios in Kursk are less, as are a whole host of other systems on the Russian sides. Perhaps there, the Ukrainians might finally manage it. Looking at the situation maps, its enought to make one think that yes, they do seem to have a drop on the Russians, and its going to be tough to get out of it.

This guy is usually fairly even handed. He was very critical of the defence of Pokrovsk, but he is pro Ukrainian, and seems even handed enough to get a good critique on whats going on. He thinks the Russians are going to try to withdraw, although, with HIMARS in the viscinity, that doesnt necessarily mean its going to be easy, or not costly.

 

[Roman Alymov]

RusArmy REM-KL ("repair and recovery vehicle - wheeled, light-weight") towing International MaxxPro MRAP in Kursk region. Note how massive this MRAP is even compared to REM-KL (relatively big vehicle, 19500kg) https://t.me/milinfolive/130745

[Roman Alymov]

Small "graveyard" of M1126 ICV Stryker,  Rosomak armored car and BREM ARV somewhere in Kursk region .https://t.me/anna_news/70851

[Roman Alymov]

Upgraded BRDM captured from pro-Ukrainains in Kursk region, note GPS antenna (small "cage" on "pole" behind rear view window) , new signals equipment, new engine and, as usual in this type of upgrades, side doors instead of extra foldable wheels

https://t.me/dva_majors/52798

[ink]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well there is a near envelopment, I think you can take that to the bank. 

I think the only thing I can currently take to the bank is that it looks like that on the map. However, that advance by the Ukrainians contains too many unknowns. Was that area defended? In what numbers are the Ukrainians advancing there? Will those forces, even if they manage a linkup, be sufficient to prevent a breakout?

Not to mention the big unknown: how many Russian troops are in the claimed Kessel

As you said, there have been many potential envelopments like this one, with claims of thousands of enemy troops about to be trapped... And then nothing.

[Roman Alymov]

Strange case in Kursk region: the turret of pro-Ukr tank have fired a shot few seconds after being throen about 50m away from the hull after FPV drone hit. The turret itself got no source of electric power to activate fire circuit when allready separated from hull, and for some mechanical process it is too late...

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/137651

[Stuart Galbraith]

23 minutes ago, ink said:

I think the only thing I can currently take to the bank is that it looks like that on the map. However, that advance by the Ukrainians contains too many unknowns. Was that area defended? In what numbers are the Ukrainians advancing there? Will those forces, even if they manage a linkup, be sufficient to prevent a breakout?

Not to mention the big unknown: how many Russian troops are in the claimed Kessel

As you said, there have been many potential envelopments like this one, with claims of thousands of enemy troops about to be trapped... And then nothing.

Like I said, the Ukrainians have taken Verseloye, because the Russians have conceded it. We know where the Ukrainian military is, we know where the Russians are attacking. This is right to their rear. The basic orientation of forces is not in dispute. The significance of it is.

The claim is its 32000. I baulk at that, because I dont think there is near enough room for that amount to fit in the cauldron. Say divide by 10 and you would be far closer to it I think.

Thats right. The difference here is that these troops are not experienced, they are not well equipped, they do not seemingly have artillery superiority, and their command is not army, but the FSB. This doesnt mean its going to collapse on them and they are going to go in the bag. But if it doesnt happen here, its never going to happen anywhere.

Look, I get cynicism and its wise to practice it. I do think sometimes it allows us to miss the wood for the trees. The Russians are in trouble here. If nothing else, their counteroffensive fell apart as soon as they conducted it. At worst... well at worst, we will see what happens next.

[Josh]

The situation in Kursk seems far more fluid than any other part of the front. It looks like a major Russian counter attack was initially successful but then bogged down, at there after the Ukrainians crossed the border along a new axis south of Glushkovo. This thrust could potentially further isolate the counter attacking units, who presumably rely on supply via pontoon bridges over the Seym. It depends exactly where the bridges and supply routes are; if they are in Gloshkovo proper then an advance east around the city perimeter that made it close to the river would force the Russians to bridge further east.

[Stuart Galbraith]

From what I hear, the pontoon bridges are being hit by HIMARS, and there is some video evidence to support it. Does that mean they cant bring the units out? Not necessarily, but clearly its going to be a complicated proceedure. From what I hear on Eastern Border, the Russian Telegram channels were loudly proclaiming an imminent Russian victory, to hysterically complaining about the imminent Russian retreat. How much of that is based on the reality of the situation, or just poor information priming of the population, Ill leave others to judge. But it appears a very awkard situation for them at the very least.

 

Edited September 17, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[alejandro_]

Roughly 1 million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or wounded in Moscow's all-out war against Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 17, citing undisclosed sources and Western intelligence estimates.

Kyiv and Moscow have mostly avoided commenting on the casualties their forces suffered during the war, which has been ongoing for two and half years.

A "confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year" put Kyiv's losses at 80,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, the WSJ wrote, citing undisclosed sources.

Western intelligence estimates cited by the WSJ placed Russian losses at up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. This is close to Kyiv's estimates on Moscow's casualties, which is over 635,000 killed and wounded as of Sept. 17.

https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-are-now-dead-or-injured-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-b09d04e5

[ink]

3 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Western intelligence estimates cited by the WSJ placed Russian losses at up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. This is close to Kyiv's estimates on Moscow's casualties, which is over 635,000 killed and wounded as of Sept. 17.

https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-are-now-dead-or-injured-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-b09d04e5

Wouldn't a 1:2 killed-wounded ratio would be... Unusual?

[mandeb48]

It would be unusual to find quality information in certain media outlets.

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 minutes ago, ink said:

Wouldn't a 1:2 killed-wounded ratio would be... Unusual?

Considering how crap their casevac system is, I wonder that we are surprised at it. Their system for getting the lightly wounded home is via train, not even hospital train seemingly. The seriously wounded, judging by the videos we get so many of,often seem to get finished off.

When was the last time you saw an interview with someone from the Russian military that was badly wounded? Yet you see them all the time from the Ukrainian Army. They even make them a showpiece.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-fashion-designers-veterans-prosthetics-839292f088cd57429dfa639b11be54b4

[Stuart Galbraith]

Eastern Border has repeated the claim that Russia is now using servicemen from the air force, and men from the Strategic Rocket Forces to make up number among the infantry.  He cites the Z channels on Russian social mesia as his source.

[ink]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Considering how crap their casevac system is, I wonder that we are surprised at it. Their system for getting the lightly wounded home is via train, not even hospital train seemingly. The seriously wounded, judging by the videos we get so many of,often seem to get finished off.

When was the last time you saw an interview with someone from the Russian military that was badly wounded? Yet you see them all the time from the Ukrainian Army. They even make them a showpiece.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-fashion-designers-veterans-prosthetics-839292f088cd57429dfa639b11be54b4

We don't get much info in general about Russian medical practices. However, when I asked about this during the Bakhmut campaign (I think), Roman posted a video of an underground hospital close to the front that looked every bit as good as the Ukrainian facilities that are also close to the line. And that was back when all the "news" was full of talk of unarmed ex-convicts charging Ukrainian machine gun nests.

In other words, while there's every reason to believe Russian battle medicine practices are suboptimal - perhaps even much worse than their Ukrainian counterparts - there's no reason to believ they're so bad they would result in a 1:2 ratio of killed to wounded (especially in a war where shrapnel is the main source of wounds).

Or, put another way, I don't buy those casualty numbers/ratios.

Also, weren't the Ukrainians claiming 500k+ Russians killed? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 minute ago, ink said:

We don't get much info in general about Russian medical practices. However, when I asked about this during the Bakhmut campaign (I think), Roman posted a video of an underground hospital close to the front that looked every bit as good as the Ukrainian facilities that are also close to the line. And that was back when all the "news" was full of talk of unarmed ex-convicts charging Ukrainian machine gun nests.

In other words, while there's every reason to believe Russian battle medicine practices are suboptimal - perhaps even much worse than their Ukrainian counterparts - there's no reason to believ they're so bad they would result in a 1:2 ratio of killed to wounded (especially in a war where shrapnel is the main source of wounds).

Or, put another way, I don't buy those casualty numbers/ratios.

Also, weren't the Ukrainians claiming 500k+ Russians killed? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?

If it was underground, the chances are it was the Ukrainians that built it....

You ever seen the Ukrainians do this? Ive lost count of the amount of times Ive seen footage of Russians doing it.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-killing-soldier-drone-video/33041837.html

I think they were probably talking about 500k casualties, which doesnt seem out of line with these figures. I wont swear to it though.

[ink]

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If it was underground, the chances are it was the Ukrainians that built it....

You ever seen the Ukrainians do this? Ive lost count of the amount of times Ive seen footage of Russians doing it.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-killing-soldier-drone-video/33041837.html

I must confess, this is the only video I've seen of it happening for either side.

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I think they were probably talking about 500k casualties, which doesnt seem out of line with these figures. I wont swear to it though.

I can't either. Been working so much recently that my brain's frazzled.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Eastern Border has repeated the claim that Russia is now using servicemen from the air force, and men from the Strategic Rocket Forces to make up number among the infantry.  He cites the Z channels on Russian social mesia as his source.

No idea why it is "now" since it is long established practice for people from "non-ground forces" branches of arms to fight in frontline roles - for example Sergey "Ernest" Gritsay, one of two drone operators who became internationally known afther their death reaching presidential level, was LtCol (Ret) of RVSN (strategic missile force) who volunteered to frontline and was on Sergant position. It is not unusual for Majors and Colonels to start again from Private positions in volunteer units. More over, there are entire units of such people - for example, at least one rifle regiment formed out of RVSN personnel that is fighting in Kursk region was recently issued with the set of civil society crowdfunded encrypted digital radios. Volunteer-produced cammo nets are donated to RVSN units to cover their installations and so on. It is crowdfunded war....

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, but these are not 'volunteers' (and dear God isnt that a loaded euphemism in Russian service). These are guys drafted out of the Air Force and Strategic Rocket forces, apparently without any will on their part to do so, simply to fill out the eroded ground units.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[TrustMe]

42 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, but these are not 'volunteers' (and dear God isnt that a loaded euphemism in Russian service). These are guys drafted out of the Air Force and Strategic Rocket forces, apparently without any will on their part to do so, simply to fill out the eroded ground units.

All officers are volunteers in the Russian Armed Forces.