Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

RusArmy REM-KL ("repair and recovery vehicle - wheeled, light-weight") towing International MaxxPro MRAP in Kursk region. Note how massive this MRAP is even compared to REM-KL (relatively big vehicle, 19500kg) https://t.me/milinfolive/130745

[Roman Alymov]

Small "graveyard" of M1126 ICV Stryker,  Rosomak armored car and BREM ARV somewhere in Kursk region .https://t.me/anna_news/70851

[Roman Alymov]

Upgraded BRDM captured from pro-Ukrainains in Kursk region, note GPS antenna (small "cage" on "pole" behind rear view window) , new signals equipment, new engine and, as usual in this type of upgrades, side doors instead of extra foldable wheels

https://t.me/dva_majors/52798

[ink]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well there is a near envelopment, I think you can take that to the bank. 

I think the only thing I can currently take to the bank is that it looks like that on the map. However, that advance by the Ukrainians contains too many unknowns. Was that area defended? In what numbers are the Ukrainians advancing there? Will those forces, even if they manage a linkup, be sufficient to prevent a breakout?

Not to mention the big unknown: how many Russian troops are in the claimed Kessel

As you said, there have been many potential envelopments like this one, with claims of thousands of enemy troops about to be trapped... And then nothing.

[Roman Alymov]

Strange case in Kursk region: the turret of pro-Ukr tank have fired a shot few seconds after being throen about 50m away from the hull after FPV drone hit. The turret itself got no source of electric power to activate fire circuit when allready separated from hull, and for some mechanical process it is too late...

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/137651

[Stuart Galbraith]

23 minutes ago, ink said:

I think the only thing I can currently take to the bank is that it looks like that on the map. However, that advance by the Ukrainians contains too many unknowns. Was that area defended? In what numbers are the Ukrainians advancing there? Will those forces, even if they manage a linkup, be sufficient to prevent a breakout?

Not to mention the big unknown: how many Russian troops are in the claimed Kessel

As you said, there have been many potential envelopments like this one, with claims of thousands of enemy troops about to be trapped... And then nothing.

Like I said, the Ukrainians have taken Verseloye, because the Russians have conceded it. We know where the Ukrainian military is, we know where the Russians are attacking. This is right to their rear. The basic orientation of forces is not in dispute. The significance of it is.

The claim is its 32000. I baulk at that, because I dont think there is near enough room for that amount to fit in the cauldron. Say divide by 10 and you would be far closer to it I think.

Thats right. The difference here is that these troops are not experienced, they are not well equipped, they do not seemingly have artillery superiority, and their command is not army, but the FSB. This doesnt mean its going to collapse on them and they are going to go in the bag. But if it doesnt happen here, its never going to happen anywhere.

Look, I get cynicism and its wise to practice it. I do think sometimes it allows us to miss the wood for the trees. The Russians are in trouble here. If nothing else, their counteroffensive fell apart as soon as they conducted it. At worst... well at worst, we will see what happens next.

[Josh]

The situation in Kursk seems far more fluid than any other part of the front. It looks like a major Russian counter attack was initially successful but then bogged down, at there after the Ukrainians crossed the border along a new axis south of Glushkovo. This thrust could potentially further isolate the counter attacking units, who presumably rely on supply via pontoon bridges over the Seym. It depends exactly where the bridges and supply routes are; if they are in Gloshkovo proper then an advance east around the city perimeter that made it close to the river would force the Russians to bridge further east.

[Stuart Galbraith]

From what I hear, the pontoon bridges are being hit by HIMARS, and there is some video evidence to support it. Does that mean they cant bring the units out? Not necessarily, but clearly its going to be a complicated proceedure. From what I hear on Eastern Border, the Russian Telegram channels were loudly proclaiming an imminent Russian victory, to hysterically complaining about the imminent Russian retreat. How much of that is based on the reality of the situation, or just poor information priming of the population, Ill leave others to judge. But it appears a very awkard situation for them at the very least.

 

Edited September 17, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[alejandro_]

Roughly 1 million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or wounded in Moscow's all-out war against Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 17, citing undisclosed sources and Western intelligence estimates.

Kyiv and Moscow have mostly avoided commenting on the casualties their forces suffered during the war, which has been ongoing for two and half years.

A "confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year" put Kyiv's losses at 80,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, the WSJ wrote, citing undisclosed sources.

Western intelligence estimates cited by the WSJ placed Russian losses at up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. This is close to Kyiv's estimates on Moscow's casualties, which is over 635,000 killed and wounded as of Sept. 17.

https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-are-now-dead-or-injured-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-b09d04e5

[ink]

3 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Western intelligence estimates cited by the WSJ placed Russian losses at up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. This is close to Kyiv's estimates on Moscow's casualties, which is over 635,000 killed and wounded as of Sept. 17.

https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-are-now-dead-or-injured-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-b09d04e5

Wouldn't a 1:2 killed-wounded ratio would be... Unusual?

[mandeb48]

It would be unusual to find quality information in certain media outlets.

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 minutes ago, ink said:

Wouldn't a 1:2 killed-wounded ratio would be... Unusual?

Considering how crap their casevac system is, I wonder that we are surprised at it. Their system for getting the lightly wounded home is via train, not even hospital train seemingly. The seriously wounded, judging by the videos we get so many of,often seem to get finished off.

When was the last time you saw an interview with someone from the Russian military that was badly wounded? Yet you see them all the time from the Ukrainian Army. They even make them a showpiece.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-fashion-designers-veterans-prosthetics-839292f088cd57429dfa639b11be54b4

[Stuart Galbraith]

Eastern Border has repeated the claim that Russia is now using servicemen from the air force, and men from the Strategic Rocket Forces to make up number among the infantry.  He cites the Z channels on Russian social mesia as his source.

[ink]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Considering how crap their casevac system is, I wonder that we are surprised at it. Their system for getting the lightly wounded home is via train, not even hospital train seemingly. The seriously wounded, judging by the videos we get so many of,often seem to get finished off.

When was the last time you saw an interview with someone from the Russian military that was badly wounded? Yet you see them all the time from the Ukrainian Army. They even make them a showpiece.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-fashion-designers-veterans-prosthetics-839292f088cd57429dfa639b11be54b4

We don't get much info in general about Russian medical practices. However, when I asked about this during the Bakhmut campaign (I think), Roman posted a video of an underground hospital close to the front that looked every bit as good as the Ukrainian facilities that are also close to the line. And that was back when all the "news" was full of talk of unarmed ex-convicts charging Ukrainian machine gun nests.

In other words, while there's every reason to believe Russian battle medicine practices are suboptimal - perhaps even much worse than their Ukrainian counterparts - there's no reason to believ they're so bad they would result in a 1:2 ratio of killed to wounded (especially in a war where shrapnel is the main source of wounds).

Or, put another way, I don't buy those casualty numbers/ratios.

Also, weren't the Ukrainians claiming 500k+ Russians killed? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 minute ago, ink said:

We don't get much info in general about Russian medical practices. However, when I asked about this during the Bakhmut campaign (I think), Roman posted a video of an underground hospital close to the front that looked every bit as good as the Ukrainian facilities that are also close to the line. And that was back when all the "news" was full of talk of unarmed ex-convicts charging Ukrainian machine gun nests.

In other words, while there's every reason to believe Russian battle medicine practices are suboptimal - perhaps even much worse than their Ukrainian counterparts - there's no reason to believ they're so bad they would result in a 1:2 ratio of killed to wounded (especially in a war where shrapnel is the main source of wounds).

Or, put another way, I don't buy those casualty numbers/ratios.

Also, weren't the Ukrainians claiming 500k+ Russians killed? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?

If it was underground, the chances are it was the Ukrainians that built it....

You ever seen the Ukrainians do this? Ive lost count of the amount of times Ive seen footage of Russians doing it.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-killing-soldier-drone-video/33041837.html

I think they were probably talking about 500k casualties, which doesnt seem out of line with these figures. I wont swear to it though.

[ink]

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If it was underground, the chances are it was the Ukrainians that built it....

You ever seen the Ukrainians do this? Ive lost count of the amount of times Ive seen footage of Russians doing it.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-killing-soldier-drone-video/33041837.html

I must confess, this is the only video I've seen of it happening for either side.

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I think they were probably talking about 500k casualties, which doesnt seem out of line with these figures. I wont swear to it though.

I can't either. Been working so much recently that my brain's frazzled.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Eastern Border has repeated the claim that Russia is now using servicemen from the air force, and men from the Strategic Rocket Forces to make up number among the infantry.  He cites the Z channels on Russian social mesia as his source.

No idea why it is "now" since it is long established practice for people from "non-ground forces" branches of arms to fight in frontline roles - for example Sergey "Ernest" Gritsay, one of two drone operators who became internationally known afther their death reaching presidential level, was LtCol (Ret) of RVSN (strategic missile force) who volunteered to frontline and was on Sergant position. It is not unusual for Majors and Colonels to start again from Private positions in volunteer units. More over, there are entire units of such people - for example, at least one rifle regiment formed out of RVSN personnel that is fighting in Kursk region was recently issued with the set of civil society crowdfunded encrypted digital radios. Volunteer-produced cammo nets are donated to RVSN units to cover their installations and so on. It is crowdfunded war....

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, but these are not 'volunteers' (and dear God isnt that a loaded euphemism in Russian service). These are guys drafted out of the Air Force and Strategic Rocket forces, apparently without any will on their part to do so, simply to fill out the eroded ground units.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[TrustMe]

42 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, but these are not 'volunteers' (and dear God isnt that a loaded euphemism in Russian service). These are guys drafted out of the Air Force and Strategic Rocket forces, apparently without any will on their part to do so, simply to fill out the eroded ground units.

All officers are volunteers in the Russian Armed Forces.

[Roman Alymov]

18 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, but these are not 'volunteers' (and dead God isnt that a loaded euphemism in Russian service). These are guys drafted out of the Air Force and Strategic Rocket forces, apparently without any will on their part to do so, simply to fill out the eroded ground units.

I'm sorry but it is nonsence, there is no official war in Russia and no way to draft people to the fromtline from other mil bfranches (othervice our comprador Gov would have long did that, instead of "partial mobilization" and other tricks they are now playing). People from VKS, RVSN, Navy etc. are volunteering to this units - some because of ideological reasons, others because of monetary stimulus (frontline troops are well paid now, and private in war zone is making more then regiment commander somewhere in Volga region), some under pressure from afministration ("We need volunteers, and if you is not willing - forget about your career growth"), but it is not exactly "drafted". As i have explained here, mobilization (and big war in general) is one way ticket for "collective Putin Mk.2022"  - see "Lefortovo Military District" now formed (do i have to explain the meaning of it for you, seasoned expert in Russian affairs?)   By swipping under carpet Russian civil war in 2022, and failing to commit enough forces to quick campaign in spring of 2022 to at least finish the hor war quickly, this group of elite members have signed their penalty (yes, thanks to timely intervention from West who have blocked their attempts to surrender before it gone too far) and now it is only question of time for them to be replaced (at least).

     By the way if you think that "RVSN regiments" on frontline are good for West - you are wrong, since every new RVSN officer rotated through frontline is decreasing the chances of "Red Button" order not implemented (or, in another scenario, people finding own small "Red Buttons" even in case of top command failing to press "Big Red Button" when West will finally attack).

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, ink said:

We don't get much info in general about Russian medical practices. However, when I asked about this during the Bakhmut campaign (I think), Roman posted a video of an underground hospital close to the front that looked every bit as good as the Ukrainian facilities that are also close to the line. 

If you mean Wagner hospital in Artyomovsk salt mines, it was constructed by civil contractors hired by Wagner. But I do not know why people here are claiming Russian frontline hospitals are bad - since on pro-Rus side (where people are newer shy of critical opinions) nobody is complaining about bad frontline hoispitals  - but mostly about difficulty of evacuation from frontlibe (the same for pro-Ukrainians, as drones have changed the battlefield) and, in rear areas hospitals, bureoucracy and long waiting for surgery for non-critical cases. In general, pro-Russians are more or less satisfied with medical care they are recieving. 

Let me advise you to interview (or, rather, discussion) between Artyom Drabkin (creator of IRemember project) and Yuri Evich, native of Donbass, doctor of medicine and pro-Russian field surgeon/field medic since 2014. Sory, in Russian only

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

48 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I'm sorry but it is nonsence, there is no official war in Russia and no way to draft people to the fromtline from other mil bfranches (othervice our comprador Gov would have long did that, instead of "partial mobilization" and other tricks they are now playing). People from VKS, RVSN, Navy etc. are volunteering to this units - some because of ideological reasons, others because of monetary stimulus (frontline troops are well paid now, and private in war zone is making more then regiment commander somewhere in Volga region), some under pressure from afministration ("We need volunteers, and if you is not willing - forget about your career growth"), but it is not exactly "drafted". As i have explained here, mobilization (and big war in general) is one way ticket for "collective Putin Mk.2022"  - see "Lefortovo Military District" now formed (do i have to explain the meaning of it for you, seasoned expert in Russian affairs?)   By swipping under carpet Russian civil war in 2022, and failing to commit enough forces to quick campaign in spring of 2022 to at least finish the hor war quickly, this group of elite members have signed their penalty (yes, thanks to timely intervention from West who have blocked their attempts to surrender before it gone too far) and now it is only question of time for them to be replaced (at least).

     By the way if you think that "RVSN regiments" on frontline are good for West - you are wrong, since every new RVSN officer rotated through frontline is decreasing the chances of "Red Button" order not implemented (or, in another scenario, people finding own small "Red Buttons" even in case of top command failing to press "Big Red Button" when West will finally attack).

Roman, I remember you saying it was complete nonsense that Russia would ever invade Ukraine, and yet here we are.

Im not saying its good for anyone. You, us, or the poor bastards on the frontline without adequate training. Its a stupid war, increasinglys sustained by stupid methods.

[Roman Alymov]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Roman, I remember you saying it was complete nonsense that Russia would ever invade Ukraine, and yet here we are.

As i have said many times, it is nonsence because Ukraine is part of Russia and saying "Russia would invade Ukraine" is the same like "Russia would invade Siberia". It is Russian Civil War, almost 100 years following previous one, and. again. with strong foreign meddling.

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im not saying its good for anyone. You, us, or the poor bastards on the frontline without adequate training. Its a stupid war, increasinglys sustained by stupid methods.

Western thinktanks have planned this war qiote in advance

 

[Roman Alymov]

Meanwhile Ukrainsk of Donetsk region (town of pre-war pop  12K ) taken by pro-Rus 114th brigade who put their Soviet flags on local landmarks https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6837

   Note Ukrainsk is tvice the size os Sunzha (5.6K) - but nobody cares....

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, alejandro_ said:

 

Western intelligence estimates cited by the WSJ placed Russian losses at up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. This is close to Kyiv's estimates on Moscow's casualties, which is over 635,000 killed and wounded as of Sept. 17.

Another example of Russian casualty estimates having more to do with the West "covering the spread" vs actual Ukrainian casualties, rather than with any semblance of reality WRT Russian losses.

Edited September 17, 2024 by glenn239