Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

I think both sides have been doing that here and there for over a year.

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

What to make of this?

 

My take is twofold:

1) British news are always late (in this case, at least 4 month late as it became common practice since the start of hot season)

2) You are not reading my posts

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I think both sides have been doing that here and there for over a year.

Over a year is a bit overstatement as for me. but at least since february 2024 i think is strongly proved.

[Colin]

I vaguely recall that Iskander prewar production was 150 a year?

[bojan]

Average production yes, but that is simply pre-war amount/number of years of production, and it was not produced in same amounts every year, due the different contracts for equipment of units. So potential production was higher, how much I am not sure, but I would not be surprised that theoretically it would be ~200 or even 250 per year, through later number would be probably pushing it a bit.

What is a production capability ATM is anyone's guess, unlike a lot of other things I have not found any Russian sources about Iskander production increase after 24/02/22.

 

[Josh]

10 minutes ago, bojan said:

Average production yes, but that is simply pre-war amount/number of years of production, and it was not produced in same amounts every year, due the different contracts for equipment of units. So potential production was higher, how much I am not sure, but I would not be surprised that theoretically it would be ~200 or even 250 per year, through later number would be probably pushing it a bit.

What is a production capability ATM is anyone's guess, unlike a lot of other things I have not found any Russian sources about Iskander production increase after 24/02/22.

 

Have you tried asking Glenn?

serious question, how many Iskander brigades were there pre war? I think Tochka had just been almost completely phase out? ~20? Presumably 4-6 reloads per launcher, maybe a little more, plus some nukes reserved?

[Roman Alymov]

Good video of armor actions during assault on Yuzhnodonbasskaya coalmine near Ugledar. Note how massive coal mine buildings are, in combination with its position on local hill amid flat fields making them ideak defence position https://t.me/boris_rozhin/137319

Edited September 14, 2024 by Roman Alymov

[Stuart Galbraith]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Have you tried asking Glenn?

serious question, how many Iskander brigades were there pre war? I think Tochka had just been almost completely phase out? ~20? Presumably 4-6 reloads per launcher, maybe a little more, plus some nukes reserved?

I cant speak for how many there were prewar. The nearest figurest I would have would be for 2015, so it wouldnt be a lot of use.  There certainly were Tochka still in use about 2016, I noted the in a orbat I put together.

So basic numbers now should look like this.

12 Launchers, 12 reload vehicles, kinda like Tochka units.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/new_missile_brigades_created_in_russia_one_possibly_wielded_kn_23_from_north_korea-10492.html

Bear in mind, 2 missiles per vehicle, so in theory, perhaps up to 48 missiles per brigade, maybe more depending on what the reload vehicles can carry.

Wiki says 160 firing units in 13 Brigades, which sounds about right. Fully equipped, the brigades would have  624 missiles. I would be surprised if they are getting anywhere near filling them all  out these days. If they were still doing prewar rate production, that would take them 4 years to fill out. Presumably they have ramped up production, but there seems desperately little evidence that they have, or indeed, what they changed it to.

Combat approved did a flagwaving video 3 years ago about them, but there is some interesting footage so its worth watching.

 

[bojan]

9 hours ago, Josh said:

serious question, how many Iskander brigades were there pre war? I think Tochka had just been almost completely phase out? ~20? Presumably 4-6 reloads per launcher, maybe a little more, plus some nukes reserved?

There was a number posted here previously, but IDR. There are ~160 launchers in service ATM, and I doubt they have made many since 2022 since missiles to fill existing ones are more critical. So probably ~150 launchers in 2022.

For missiles/launcher, since combat load of the launcher is 2 missiles there needs to be 6 missiles (3 combat loads*) in order for system to be considered "initially operational" and 5 loads (10 missiles) for "fully operational". In theory USSR went for 10 combat loads for tactical missile systems ("fully operational with reserve ammo"), but I am not sure Russia does.

So with ~150 launchers they had something between ~900 and ~ 1500 missiles** (IIRC Ukrainians claimed about 1000) with ~150 guarantied (and very possibly higher) yearly production. With 150 missiles per year they can afford to use ~12 per month w/o degradation of stockpiles.

Problem is that we don't realistically know how many they have used, Ukrainians claim some absurd numbers (IIRC over 2000!), but they have claimed a lot of very suspicious things to be Iskander, so maybe (very big maybe) half that number, but my estimate would be more like ~500-600 so far.

*Looking at sales it looks like most clients got ~6 missiles per launcher, so 3 combat loads.

**Nuke capable missiles are counted separately, and they are relatively few, IIRC maybe 1/2 of the combat load, so 1/launcher. But those were for Soviets times, nowadays it might be even less.

 

[Roman Alymov]

Curious case: the map of Fort Irwin National Training Center  found in one of captured Bradleys https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/39696

   I do not think the map is classified, but still interesting

[Stuart Galbraith]

It's not that surprising, all kinds of units rotate through there. It's the OPFOR center.

[seahawk]

58 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Curious case: the map of Fort Irwin National Training Center  found in one of captured Bradleys https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/39696

   I do not think the map is classified, but still interesting

Probably the crew was US.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, Sgt Wardaddy and Oddball.

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Josh said:

Have you tried asking Glenn?

Yeah, we talked about it before the war.  I figured then maybe about 1,500 to 2,000 Iskanders in inventory with a production rate of maybe 120 per year.  

[Roman Alymov]

Back to bridge war: pro-Ukrainian is showing the damage to the bridge over railway tracks in Pokrovsk, saying it was hit by four missiles and now only pedastrians could use it, while vehickes have to do 30 km bypass

https://t.me/dva_majors/52593

[Josh]

Surprised that is only just now a target?

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

Surprised that is only just now a target?

Not at all. as Rus leadership is still begging for negotiations and, unsurprisingly, this political guideline is filtering down the command chain.

    Another captured and restored Marder IFV https://t.me/boris_rozhin/137394

[Roman Alymov]

Back to "Russian human waves": single paratrooper with backpack of explosives vs. pro-Ukr bunker (converted rainwater pipe under railway) https://t.me/infomil_live/10136

[Roman Alymov]

Typical pro-Rus command position (company-btn level) https://t.me/dva_majors/52602

[alejandro_]

19 hours ago, Josh said:

Have you tried asking Glenn?

serious question, how many Iskander brigades were there pre war? I think Tochka had just been almost completely phase out? ~20? Presumably 4-6 reloads per launcher, maybe a little more, plus some nukes reserved?

Before the war there were 14, with the last one receiving Iskander systems just before the invasion. Below you can find the brigades and the year they received Iskander.





https://alejandro-8.blogspot.com/search/label/Iskander

The last one was anounced this year. In the table it just says X Missile Brigade, according to latest news it could be 41°, and will be based in the Russian Far East (or Karelya).

Ukrainan press has stated it could receive North Korean KN-23 instead of Iskander and will be based in the Fasr East.

Edited September 14, 2024 by alejandro_

[Josh]

I love how you actually labeled it “before the invasion”. ; )

But thanks for the data; I had thought the last Tochka were swapped out of the last active unit almost months before the conflict and that seems close to the case. Fewer brigades than I thought though. Again, thanks for the information.

Edited September 14, 2024 by Josh

[Stuart Galbraith]

Google translate is not particularly great, but it seem to suggest 448 Missile Brigade in Kursk were the last to use Tochka, and they converted in 2019.

https://gur-gov-ua.translate.goog/content/voennosluzhashchye-448-raketnoi-bryhady.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

All the others that turned up later presumably were ones they held onto pending sale to somewhere else.

 

[Roman Alymov]

FPV drone vs. immobilized Stryker IFV (note roadwheel allready torn apart) https://t.me/anna_news/70780

[Roman Alymov]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

I had thought the last Tochka were swapped out of the last active unit almost months before the conflict and that seems close to the case. F

Illustration of why outdated Tochka missiles left in Ukraine by USSR are not safe to use

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/41133

  Tochkas left in Russia were better maintaned, but probably are subject of the same decay of solid fuel over time.

[Roman Alymov]

Rare video of pro-Rus armor recovery team at work https://t.me/boris_rozhin/137455