Kiev Is Burning

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Josh said:

Ok, so do tell, where were these kills? You made the assertion; I am not researching it for you.

HIMARS kills are reported in daily summaries over on the Military Summary Channel, invariably with video, (which is sometimes clear, sometimes not) and geolocations.  I'm not going to sift back through months of reports, but when the next one occurs for HIMARS or something similar, I will post it.

Quote

Assuming Iskander can hit one. I’ll yield to Bojan and Roman on the matter of ISR, but my assumption is that this strike complex is almost exclusively driven by Orlan 10 recon platforms.

Airpower seems a bit different that hunting HIMARS.  HIMARS can be anywhere in a huge area, only risking detection while moving or firing.  Aircraft tend to fly from a few large air bases.  The Ukrainian air force has the luxury of being able to shuffle a small number of aircraft between a large number of bases.  I'm not so sure NATO has the same luxury - it's not as easy to put a thousand aircraft in a battle without massing large numbers of aircraft at each base.  

Quote

My point to Glenn was that it seems more likely weak AD or more forward deployment probably explains recent Russian success more that some new breakthrough in employment of systems that existed pre war.

The exact status of the Ukrainian AD network at the moment is unclear, as is current Russian attack patterns based on the types of doctrinal improvements you do not seem to want to admit have occurred.  For example, I would be interested in seeing whether there has been a shift in Russian missile usage away from cruise missiles and towards hypersonics.

Edited September 12, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

Not sure where it was, but someone (MZ I think) had made a comment about anti-satellite systems that they needed to be able to take out targets without leaving junk to clean up.  So that got me wondering how feasible the opposite approach would be, a 'shotgun to the stars' approach.  Things like Starlink orbit between 211 and 382 miles, and rely on thousands of satellites to prevent being degraded by conventional attack.  Some guesses - 

a 1/32nd ball bearing is a qty of 211,138 to the pound,

https://www.bcprecision.com/blogs/news/57238725-ball-bearing-weight-chart

A lifter with a throw weight of 6,000kg should be able to loft about 3 billion 1/32nd ball bearing to orbit.  Assuming that these are set to orbit in a box of 200 miles x 200 miles and well spread out, then I think that's about 555,000 1/32nd ball bearings passing through any given point in the 200x200 mile box every second at 17,500 miles an hour.

If 555,000 ball bearings are continuously orbiting in a 200x200 (40,000 square mile) track, then on average 14 ball bearing are passing through each square mile every second.  The chances that a 1'x1' satellite being hit by a ball bearing while passing through this zone over the course of 41 seconds might be about one in fifty thousand?

Assuming the satellite passes through this zone 16 time a day, then the chances in one month of it being hit rise to about 1%.  Boost the number of ball bearings to 60,000kg  in the kill box, and the chances of a hit rise to maybe 10% over the course of 1 month.

Edited September 13, 2024 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

Good video of Bradley IFV captured intact (was abandoned in swamp) https://t.me/sashakots/48947

[Roman Alymov]

Thermal Lancet vs. SPG in Kursk region. Note the vehicle was static for some time and used without starting the engine (so it was cold, only gun is glowing and personnel around is visibly warm) https://t.me/infomil_live/10065

[seahawk]

The Ukrainins must be running out of every kind of vehicle considering the huge amount of successful strikes by Russia.

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 hours ago, bojan said:

They should have got Madsen, or Vickers-Berthier, or even WW1 Hotchkiss portative. DP is just... out of place.

Id have settled for a C96 Mauser. I dont think I ever saw one in it. Happily in the last series of Vienna Blood there was one all over the last episode.

Edited September 13, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

Close view of pro-Rus FPV drone with thermite "rainfall" charge (and the same drone in action). Previously, video of simmilar pro-Ukr drone was discussed 

https://t.me/milinfolive/130383

[Roman Alymov]

Video from Kursk region - another abandoned Stryker and other armor (18+) Note how dry is ground and vegetation 

https://t.me/sashakots/48949

[Roman Alymov]

Drone-directed artillery vs. fuel truck (?) that arrived on SPG position, Kharkov region https://t.me/infomil_live/10070

[TonyE]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Id have settled for a C96 Mauser. I dont think I ever saw one in it. Happily in the last series of Vienna Blood there was one all over the last episode.

The C96 M1932 or the similar Astra 900-series would have been perfect for the series, full auto like machine pistols and with detachable stocks doubling as holsters.

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, TonyE said:

The C96 M1932 or the similar Astra 900-series would have been perfect for the series, full auto like machine pistols and with detachable stocks doubling as holsters.

Another iconic Soviet cinema gun (probably because of its status of "weapon of Revolution")

 

Even Poles were unable to resist the temptation to put it into WWII movie (i do not remember if it was also in source book)

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, TonyE said:

The C96 M1932 or the similar Astra 900-series would have been perfect for the series, full auto like machine pistols and with detachable stocks doubling as holsters.

 

Indeed its strange they didnt, particulary as it was used in the first 'modern' terrorist incident in British history, the Siege of Sidney Street.

 

Well, there is a movie follow up set in WW2, so perhaps we will see one then. They were knocking around for donkeys years over here.

https://metro.co.uk/2024/09/02/everything-know-peaky-blinders-netflix-movie-including-cast-21535653/?ico=related-posts

[Roman Alymov]

46 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

Indeed its strange they didnt, particulary as it was used in the first 'modern' terrorist incident in British history, the Siege of Sidney Street. 

Who were led by Yakov Peters (Jēkabs Peterss), who was then innocent victim of bloody Stalin's repressions....

Peters and Dzerzhinsky, 1918-1919 (exact date not known)

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well, rather like Jack the Ripper some 20 years earlier, there are still several suspects. I think the most we can say about him was that he was 'probably Latvian'. We dont even know if he was a housepainter or a portrait artist. Im not rejecting your candidate, just saying, there are several others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_the_Painter

Another member was "Peter the Painter", a nickname for an unknown figure, possibly named Peter Piaktow (or Piatkov, Pjatkov or Piaktoff),^[1] He used several aliases, including Schtern, Straume, Makharov and Dudkin^[2] or Janis Zhaklis.^[3] Bernard Porter, writing in the Dictionary of National Biography, states that no firm details are known of the anarchist's background and that "None of the ... biographical 'facts' about him ... is altogether reliable."^[2]

In 1988, based on research in the KGB archives, Philip Ruff, a historian of anarchism, suggested Peter the Painter might be Ģederts Eliass.^[4] He was a Latvian artist involved in the 1905 Revolution in Russia and was living in exile in England during the time of the Sidney Street Siege. He returned to Riga after the Bolshevik 1917 Revolution.^[5] More recently, Ruff has identified Peter the Painter as Jānis Žāklis (also spelled Janis Zhaklis or Zhakles), another Latvian far-leftist. Like Peters, Zhaklis was a member of the Latvian Social Democratic Workers' Party in 1905; among his exploits was effecting the escape of Fritz Svaars from prison in Riga. Zhaklis associated with Eliass in exile in Finland, where they were involved together in the robbery of the Russian State Bank branch in Helsinki. Zhaklis broke with the Social Democrats and became an anarchist. It is unclear what happened to him after 1911.^[6] In August 2012 Ruff published a book on the life of Janis Zhaklis; it was released by Dienas Grāmata (in Latvian) as Pa stāvu liesmu debesīs: Nenotveramā latviešu anarhista Pētera Māldera laiks un dzīve (A Towering Flame: The Life & Times of Peter the Painter).^[7] This has been succeeded by an English-language edition, published by Breviary Stuff in 2019.^[8]

^{Its a shame we dont know more, if there is one story out of history Id like to read, it would be his. He is about the only person I know that shot at Churchill and lived to talk about it (probably).}

Edited September 13, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

18 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well, rather like Jack the Ripper some 20 years earlier, there are still several suspects. I think the most we can say about him was that he was 'probably Latvian'. We dont even know if he was a housepainter or a portrait artist. Im not rejecting your candidate, just saying, there are several others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_the_Painter

Another member was "Peter the Painter", a nickname for an unknown figure, possibly named Peter Piaktow (or Piatkov, Pjatkov or Piaktoff),^[1] He used several aliases, including Schtern, Straume, Makharov and Dudkin^[2] or Janis Zhaklis.^[3] Bernard Porter, writing in the Dictionary of National Biography, states that no firm details are known of the anarchist's background and that "None of the ... biographical 'facts' about him ... is altogether reliable."^[2]

 

Piatkov is the only combination that more or less makes sence in Russian, not sure why Britons were not aware of it (may be they were just putting down words of non-Russian speaking witnesses).

    From Rus Wiki

"In emigration (1909-1917)
In 1909 he emigrated to Hamburg, and from there a year later moved to London. Fyodor Rothstein, who helped the Russian communists who found themselves in London, recalled that he had to "tinker" with Peters, who, having fled from the persecution of the tsarist government, was without a penny of money, did not know a word of English[7]. He was a member of the London group of Social Democracy of the Latvian Territory (SDLK), the British Socialist Party and the Latvian Communist Club.

On December 23, 1910, he was arrested by the London police on suspicion of involvement in the murder of policemen during an attempted robbery in Houndsditch on the night of December 16-17. Peters stated that the robbers were led by his cousin Fritz Swars, but Peters himself did not kill anyone[8]. Soon, on January 3, 1911, the famous "siege of Sydney Street" took place, where several Latvian terrorists fired back at the police during the day. The terrorist hotbed was destroyed only with the participation of military units; the operation on the spot was led by then Interior Minister Winston Churchill. Peters, who is usually identified with the commander of the anarchist group, Pyotr Pyatkov, nicknamed Peter the Painter, was arrested, spent 5 months in prison, after which he was acquitted by the court in May 1911 for lack of evidence.

After his release, he met with Claire Sheridan[9], Winston Churchill's cousin. However, "at one of the parties, Claire noticed that Yakov suddenly lost interest in another political discussion... The reason for this was Claire's friend — a very young, quiet May, the daughter of a London banker"[9]. He married the daughter of the British banker Maisie Freeman. In 1914, Peters' daughter, May, was born.

Peters with his first wife and daughter, 1918
Before the February Revolution, Peters held the position of managing the import department of a large British trading company[10].

During the First World War, he was a member of the committee of socialist groups headed by Chicherin." ( Петерс, Яков Христофорович — Википедия (wikipedia.org) )

[Stuart Galbraith]

So I did a quick dive on that (and thanks for the name), and found this in English. I dont have time to do a deep dive righ tnow, but this struck me.

'The investigation, however, was not terminated. Soon it was possible to establish that the police who died in the house on Hounsdwich Street were shot from a Dreyse M1907 self-loading pistol. And the most interesting thing that belonged weapon not Svaars or Hotel, but to the previously arrested Jacob Peters. But the killer of the law enforcement officers considered Janis Stenzel, near whose body a gun was found. True, there was one discrepancy, which the police for some reason decided not to notice. The fact is that in Stenzel, as in the apartment itself, the guards found the cartridges. That's just they did not fit the M1907, and were intended for the Mauser С96.'

Could it be it wasnt the glorious C96 at all, but in fact an M1907 that committed the murders? Oh thats it, ive completely lost interest in the subject now.

 

[urbanoid]

Now that's hilarious

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

It took me a moment to grasp the true majesty of that statement.  

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

What to make of this?

 

[Josh]

I think both sides have been doing that here and there for over a year.

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

What to make of this?

 

My take is twofold:

1) British news are always late (in this case, at least 4 month late as it became common practice since the start of hot season)

2) You are not reading my posts

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I think both sides have been doing that here and there for over a year.

Over a year is a bit overstatement as for me. but at least since february 2024 i think is strongly proved.

[Colin]

I vaguely recall that Iskander prewar production was 150 a year?

[bojan]

Average production yes, but that is simply pre-war amount/number of years of production, and it was not produced in same amounts every year, due the different contracts for equipment of units. So potential production was higher, how much I am not sure, but I would not be surprised that theoretically it would be ~200 or even 250 per year, through later number would be probably pushing it a bit.

What is a production capability ATM is anyone's guess, unlike a lot of other things I have not found any Russian sources about Iskander production increase after 24/02/22.

 

[Josh]

10 minutes ago, bojan said:

Average production yes, but that is simply pre-war amount/number of years of production, and it was not produced in same amounts every year, due the different contracts for equipment of units. So potential production was higher, how much I am not sure, but I would not be surprised that theoretically it would be ~200 or even 250 per year, through later number would be probably pushing it a bit.

What is a production capability ATM is anyone's guess, unlike a lot of other things I have not found any Russian sources about Iskander production increase after 24/02/22.

 

Have you tried asking Glenn?

serious question, how many Iskander brigades were there pre war? I think Tochka had just been almost completely phase out? ~20? Presumably 4-6 reloads per launcher, maybe a little more, plus some nukes reserved?