Kiev Is Burning

[RETAC21]

6 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I agree, that this can be a useful diversion. I can not see them holding the territory for long though, as then the Russian meat grinder would just start there again, against even more exposed positions. But yes, if it forces the Russians to move troops from their offensive ops and especially forces them to garrison the border with more troops, it can become a strategic success.

There's a question that is still unanswered, where are the Ukrainian reserves? I did some very rough calculations on the basis on the estimated pre-war inventory (and took the lowest number) and losses (and increased them by 30%) to get an idea of where the tank fleet is:

T-64 and derivatives: 723 -74 exports -481 confirmed losses = 168 left. If losses are increased by 30% none would be left, but we have seen at least one in the offensive, so probably, at least a battalion is left

T-72 and derivatives: 487 -38 exports -279 losses +568 additions = 738 vehicles (captured vehicles not counted). With increased losses, there would still be 618 or 20 battalions worth

T-80: 123 -65 losses = 58, 30 once increased losses are taken into account, so basically extinct

Leopard 2: 96 received -45/65 lost = leaves 51/32 left

Leopard 1: 155 received -2/3 lost = 152/3 left (where???)

M1: 31 received - 11/15 lost = 20/15 left

M55S = 28 received - 1 lost = 27 left

And 13 Challenger 2s somewhere.

So there should be a sizeable T-72/Leopard 1 force still available and trace amounts of big ticket items like the Leopard 2, Challenger, M1 or T-80UD.

Perun reaches a similar conclusion

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

The leopard 1s have hardly been utilized. There is one, maybe 2 lost, but the vast bulk is just sat somewhere, not being utilized. Shame with M55. Where are they?

You can look at it two ways, either they have a stunningly cunning counteroffensive underway, or the Ukrainians cant figure out how to use tanks in the offensive, and they are just stockpiling them. I wouldnt put money either way personally, but clearly the Russians, for the villages they take, are not pulling them in and killing them.

[MiGG0]

There is video of Leopard 2 getting hit from Lancet in Kursk area so they do use them in there atleast.

 

Edited August 8 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Yes and his point was that attacks is slowed enought that they dont need to fo it anymore.

 

And RUS used attack helicopters there. There is videos of them destroying attacking UKR forces and atleast 1 confirmed loss.

They still need to locate targets. Not so easy to pinpoint a mechanised force that can move or redeploy anyway it wants, then transmit the information to strike aircraft in a timely manner so they can make the strike. Or at least, it hasnt been up to now, and Ive yet to see any indication the RuAF have learned how.

But again, if they are using Atk Helos here, they are not using them in the south. If the objective is to pull off forces to make it easier to defend in the south, this is working as advertised.

Already stopped? Perhaps, perhaps not. As I see it, they are already on Russian territory, and the Russians have to figure out how to kick them off. Thats going to require a troop redeployment, no matter how much glad handing they give themselves.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

There is video of Leopard 2 getting hit from Lancet in Kursk area so they do use them in there. 

Best place to use them, its their most reliable, most mobile tank.

German tanks advancing on Kursk, oh Russian mothers, clutch your pearls!

 

[MiGG0]

AFAIK RUS use mostly drones to locate targets for aviation. Or drones are main spotting method and strike missiona are then givrn to either artillery (including SSM) or aviation depending on target.

 

I (or Fighterbomber) didnt say it was stopped. Just slowed down enought that  airstrikes with glidebombs are now possible.
 

IE those vehicles need to refute/rearm, etc and they will be hit while doing so. Fighting in town like Sudzha is slow progress if there are defenders, etc

 

 

Edited August 8 by MiGG0

[Stuart Galbraith]

22 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

AFAIK RUS use mostly drones to locate targets for aviation. Or drones are main spotting method and strike missiona are then givrn to either artillery (including SSM) or aviation depending on target.

 

I (or Fighterbomber) didnt say it was stopped. Just slowed down enought that  airstrikes with glidebombs are now possible.
 

IE those vehicles need to refute/rearm, etc and they will be hit while doing so. Fighting in town like Sudzha is slow progress if there are defenders, etc

 

 

They may well be, but there is obviously a difference between units that are based sometimes hundreds of kilometres from the FEBA, and helicopter units, that may be located 10 or 20 kilometres away. Thus far, the Russians have been really bad at coordinating their airforce in support of tactical operations. Perhaps that changed, but Id want to see more evidence of that before believing them.

Well there you go. If they are still moving, they arent vulnerable, short of attacks by KA50 perhaps, and as we saw the other day, they are hardly invulnerable themselves.

Are we actually sure they are in Sudza, and not just outflanking it?

Strykers have a range of 500 kilometres. I dont think they are going to need gassing for a day or two yet. Leopards, well yes, but few indications they brought a lot with them.

[MiGG0]

Well, there are videos in Kursk area of UKR units getting hit while they are stopped/hiding so thy just dont drive aimlesly all the time. Personally I have seen videos of about ~10 UKR vehicles destroyed by either drones, artillery or aviation to this point and most of them were stationary when hit.

And yes, there are multiple reports fighting in Sudza

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Interesting thread from Trent Telenko, claiming the attack may be as many as 18 battalions. Also, there is footage of the Ukrainians using drones for air defence.

He also suggests, the Railway may now be in range of Baba Yaga drones, which is some serious shit if true.

[RETAC21]

2 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Interesting thread from Trent Telenko, claiming the attack may be as many as 18 battalions. Also, there is footage of the Ukrainians using drones for air defence.

He also suggests, the Railway may now be in range of Baba Yaga drones, which is some serious shit if true.

Tire Trent has gone overboard a bit, me thinks.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well, without knowig where he got this, perhaps not.

 

[bojan]

2 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

...And RUS used attack helicopters there. There is videos of them destroying attacking UKR forces and atleast 1 confirmed loss.

Ka-52 shot down, one crewman KIA, other WIA, Mi-28 hit by FPV drone, managed to land, crew OK.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The train attacked above would appear to be near Zaporizhzhia in June. The helicopter attack fits though.

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

This also makes a few interesting point, not least defencible terrain.

 

[mandeb48]

I congratulate Ukraine for intelligently seeking to use its forces where it hurts the enemy the most. Yes, this would surely bring losses, but at least this blow hurt Russia, which once again showed its worst side, as in Kharkov in September 2022. Intelligence reports of enemy preparations dismissed. Lack of preparation, underestimation of the enemy, command and control problems, lack of reserves in the area. I hope two things come out of this: the interruption of the gas flow and Gerasimov's head on a tray (I hope for this since September 2022)

from :https://t.me/rybar/62561

 from text:  82nd and 80th separate airborne assault brigades are currently advancing with the support of the 22nd and 61st separate mechanized brigades 

no armored brigade? how strange

Edited August 8 by mandeb48

[Stuart Galbraith]

It kind of reminds me of Hearts of Iron 4 AI, where I invade the Italy, then suddenly found the axis forces have undertaken operation sealion.

Its that completely off the wall and nonsensical, and might, only might, actually pay off.

Politically of course, it turns the narrative around. Ukraine was failing. Except here is is on the attack, and doing reasonably well, ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY!

Its turned a very grim year around and changed the narrative. If it doesnt make much inroads on the Russian forces, that at least I think could turn out to be valuable. If of course, they stay off the ropes and dont get mullered for their trouble.

[mandeb48]

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

T-64 and derivatives: 723 -74 exports -481 confirmed losses = 168 left. If losses are increased by 30% none would be left, but we have seen at least one in the offensive, so probably, at least a battalion is left

 

The problem is that we do not know how many have been restored from the deposits. Still the T64 seems to be the most common tank.

lostarmour number for t64VB/BM:

761 -406 confirmed losses =  355 left

https://t.me/lost_armour/3107

Edited August 8 by mandeb48

[urbanoid]

Kursk: ours / not ours / still ours / sunk

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

DRG groups - Diversionaya Razdevachnaya Grupa

Sabotage-recon group. Russian telegram channels are reporting about large numbers of Ukrainian saboteurs, or DRG, operating in Kursk ahead of maneuvering Ukrainian units, perhaps paving the way for them.

Does the "recon" part of the name refer to a task of recon for other units, or that they're able to independently conduct recon for their own tasks?

 

I see most of the Kursk stuff is posted here. So it's not in the Kremlin is burning thread, right?

 

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

He takes the audience joker.

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

DRG groups - Diversionaya Razdevachnaya Grupa

Sabotage-recon group. Russian telegram channels are reporting about large numbers of Ukrainian saboteurs, or DRG, operating in Kursk ahead of maneuvering Ukrainian units, perhaps paving the way for them.

Does the "recon" part of the name refer to a task of recon for other units, or that they're able to independently conduct recon for their own tasks?

 

I see most of the Kursk stuff is posted here. So it's not in the Kremlin is burning thread, right?

 

 

 

That is interesting tactics however. Id not heard of the Ukrainians advancing like that before. Sounds almost like search and destroy tactics. Sad, very sad.

[RETAC21]

26 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

 

The problem is that we do not know how many have been restored from the deposits. Still the T64 seems to be the most common tank.

lostarmour number for t64VB/BM:

761 -406 confirmed losses =  355 left

https://t.me/lost_armour/3107

This is a problem indeed. Military balance is also somewhat reliable in its overall numbers, but probably not on the operational tanks numbers. This is how it tracks vs CFE information provided by Ukraine (for the years I have the MB):
 

2010: MB: 2998, CFE 2792 off by 196

2012: MB 2998, CFE 2522 off by 466

2014: MB 2545, CFE 2311 off by 234

2015: MB 2138, CFE 2195 off by 57 (this is the best year)

2017: MB 2080, CFE 1818  off by 262

On that basis, Ukraine in 2022 had:

1298 T-64

633 T-72

34 T-80

5 T-84

20 T-55

There are still a large amount of hulls on storage and repair yards (don't recall the count I did back in the day, but I seem to recall about 300)

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ukraine had/has a shitton of T64A, stacked up in its boneyards. Difficult to reactivate, not least because much of the people that would have to do it are not fighting in the frontline. I dont know what the breakdown between A and B models were in the numbers, or even if they were ever reflected.

[mandeb48]