Kiev Is Burning

[crazyinsane105]

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

P.S. Re "They sent a single battalion": pro-Russian sources are reporting 6 pro-Ukr Brigades taking part, with lots of heavy armor.

Are those brigades even half strength? Because many Ukrainian brigades have less than a third of the number of vehicles necessary to constitute an actual brigade 

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Are those brigades even half strength? Because many Ukrainian brigades have less than a third of the number of vehicles necessary to constitute an actual brigade 

Even if they are half strength, it is still three brigades  - quite enough to cause a lot of troubles if opposed by thin line of border guards and conscripts (as this regions inside Russia are guarded by conscript units, as it is officially not battlezone).

    Pro-Rus TG is full of anger on weak leadership that first made "good will gestures" in 2022, allowing pro-Ukr units to reach border at all,  and then failed to at least arm local territorial defence militia.

[Yama]

Reported that Ukrainians shot down a Ka-52 during their Kursk offensive.

 

I presume Ukrainians will pull out soon, as what purpose any advance would serve? If they have managed to cause some damage, they should be content with that and cut their losses.

Edited August 6, 2024 by Yama

[RETAC21]

12 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

P.S. Re "They sent a single battalion": pro-Russian sources are reporting 6 pro-Ukr Brigades taking part, with lots of heavy armor.

It's just panic, there were a couple of mechanised brigades deployed there plus territorial defence units, not at full strength. 

FIRMS show some activity around Sudzha and the flanks, but little else in depth, and there are still plenty of hills and streams to Kurchatov, which is the only worthy target in the area IMO. Being Russia, allows the use of conscripts and other forces, so IMO this is just a raid.

[Roman Alymov]

19 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

It's just panic, there were a couple of mechanised brigades deployed there plus territorial defence units, not at full strength. 

FIRMS show some activity around Sudzha and the flanks, but little else in depth, and there are still plenty of hills and streams to Kurchatov, which is the only worthy target in the area IMO. Being Russia, allows the use of conscripts and other forces, so IMO this is just a raid.

Yes there is a popular belief among pro-Russians that Kurchatov (and Kursk NPP there) is the real aim of this operatopn

Not sure about "panic" (as attack oif this or simmilar type was sort of expected, at least in pro-Rus TG - not sure about RusArmy big brass). Untill now, only one pro-Ukr brigade (22th mechanized) is reportedly fully commited.

[RETAC21]

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Yes there is a popular belief among pro-Russians that Kurchatov (and Kursk NPP there) is the real aim of this operatopn

Not sure about "panic" (as attack oif this or simmilar type was sort of expected, at least in pro-Rus TG - not sure about RusArmy big brass). Untill now, only one pro-Ukr brigade (22th mechanized) is reportedly fully commited.

While I wouldn't want to bank on the Ukrainian's command competence, going all the way to the NPP would only make sense as an asset to exchange for Zaporizhzhia, but holding to such a corridor strikes me as impossible for the Ukrainians.

OTOH, menacing the area may force Russia to pull forces from the Donbas, but, supposedly, there are still plenty of reserve forces all around, so this may also be a prelude to something else, somewhere else.

In short, by itself, this advance makes no sense, but as part of the bigger operational, it may, we need to wait and see.

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

While I wouldn't want to bank on the Ukrainian's command competence, going all the way to the NPP would only make sense as an asset to exchange for Zaporizhzhia, but holding to such a corridor strikes me as impossible for the Ukrainians.

They do not think in military rterms, as it is political/intelligence/terror operation. It was quite possible for Stryker IFV battalion to reach Kursk NPP in 2-3 hours by surprise raid as roads in Russia are now good, and there is next to no obstacles on the way except may be traffic police. Then they could demand negotiations etc. But something went wrong and, instead of quick breakthrough, now they are grinding their way forward under artillery and aviation strikes. 

9 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

OTOH, menacing the area may force Russia to pull forces from the Donbas, but, supposedly, there are still plenty of reserve forces all around, so this may also be a prelude to something else, somewhere else.

No idea where you get this data from....

[Roman Alymov]

By the way another interesting aspect of events in Sumy-Kursk area is that Sudzha (tiny town of about 5k population) is mostly known as key NG expoty hub  -actually, since 2022 all Rus NG transit via/into Ukraine was passing through it. 

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

They do not think in military terms, as it is political/intelligence/terror operation. It was quite possible for Stryker IFV battalion to reach Kursk NPP in 2-3 hours by surprise raid as roads in Russia are now good, and there is next to no obstacles on the way except may be traffic police. Then they could demand negotiations etc. But something went wrong and, instead of quick breakthrough, now they are grinding their way forward under artillery and aviation strikes. 

No idea where you get this data from....

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=47.91923253209289%2C37.41478163761757&z=8

What is the 98th Guards Airborne doing?

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

What is the 98th Guards Airborne doing?

As by Aug, 2 2024 they were in Bakhmut https://t.me/dva_majors/48667    https://t.me/boris_rozhin/131668

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[RETAC21]

11 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

An enterprising parent will find a way around: Джефф ШІСТНАДЦЯТЬ

[Yama]

I'd name my kid 'Dynamics'. Then encourage them towards military career.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, RETAC21 said:

An enterprising parent will find a way around: Джефф ШІСТНАДЦЯТЬ

Im pretty sure the Ukrainian for 'Falcon' is going to sound badass.

Stormshadow? Bayraktar? So may possiblities.

44 minutes ago, Yama said:

I'd name my kid 'Dynamics'. Then encourage them towards military career.

My middle name was nearly 'Isambard', to encourage me to be an industial engineer I suppose. I still feel a bit cheated my mother talked my father out of it.

 

Edited August 7, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[mandeb48]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

By the way another interesting aspect of events in Sumy-Kursk area is that Sudzha (tiny town of about 5k population) is mostly known as key NG expoty hub  -actually, since 2022 all Rus NG transit via/into Ukraine was passing through it. 

I hope that the flow of gas between enemy  is finally cut off.

[seahawk]

32 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im pretty sure the Ukrainian for 'Falcon' is going to sound badass.

Stormshadow? Bayraktar? So may possiblities.

My middle name was nearly 'Isambard', to encourage me to be an industial engineer I suppose. I still feel a bit cheated my mother talked my father out of it.

 

Probably not a good idea when the child has to go through the Russian school system in the future.

[bojan]

Popular singer in former Yugoslavia was named Adolf. He went under nickname.

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Probably not a good idea when the child has to go through the Russian school system in the future.

So much the better, they can call them 'Stepan'.

 

[RETAC21]

4 hours ago, seahawk said:

Probably not a good idea when the child has to go through the Russian school system in the future.

Ms. Sukhoi may shoot him down, but he will fly free in the end.

[Roman Alymov]

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im pretty sure the Ukrainian for 'Falcon' is going to sound badass.

In Russian, "Ukrainian" and Polish it is the same word - Сокол (Sokol)

 

   As well as many other simmilar bird spieces names, it forms a big bunch of "Bird" family names in Russia. My Cossak grandgrandfather who died in 1915 on WWI was Sokolov.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ah, Ukrainian nationalist.

[RETAC21]

10 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Yes there is a popular belief among pro-Russians that Kurchatov (and Kursk NPP there) is the real aim of this operatopn

 

Going back to this, the aim may to be control the gas tap to put pressure on Hungary, but it's pure speculation.

[Yama]

15 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Going back to this, the aim may to be control the gas tap to put pressure on Hungary, but it's pure speculation.

That would be pretty daft motivation though, as the end result would likely be exact opposite.

[RETAC21]

33 minutes ago, Yama said:

That would be pretty daft motivation though, as the end result would likely be exact opposite.

Sure, but what would they lose when Orban is already dancing with Putin?

[RETAC21]

Good analysis