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23 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

What electrical infrastructire you mean?

See above, the interest on IOUS is also IOUS. Effectively, your Goverments are printing money under cover of "it is interest on Russian money". No practical difference. 

By the way another opinion on that

 

THIS electrical infrastructure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czvvj4j4p8ro

And nice deflection, if only economics were as simple as the Bolsheviks had you believe.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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38 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Agreed, this could be the starting point to make Russia strong again. No more looting of Russian resources but investing in Russian capabilities. No more sending raw materials and knowledge to the West, but keeping them and using them in Russia and use them to fight the West.

I know your comments run on über sarcasm but if Russia gets made great again while under sanctions by some of the biggest economies in the world and while fighting a war where there is zero chance of any economic gain, that will be a first in history.

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3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

THIS electrical infrastructure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czvvj4j4p8ro

Can't open your link for some reason, what is it about?

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And nice deflection, if only economics were as simple as the Bolsheviks had you believe.

I'm sorry but it is not Bolsheviks who are printing USD 1 trillion every 100 days now and pretending it is ok. So called "Russian assets" are peanuts compared to that, after all. And your Gov is following this best practice

UK public debt rises to highest since 1961 ahead of election | Reuters

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18 hours ago, txtree99 said:

 

RAF Rivet Joints cannot be refueled by RAF tankers which means that the RJ's have to rely on internal fuel which limits their lottering capability.

 

 

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The international agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency default rating to "C" from "CC" (from probable to inevitable). 

The corresponding rating is published on the agency’s website.

The downgrade of Ukraine's long-term rating reflects Fitch's view that the agreement in principle reached on July 22 between the Ukrainian government and certain Eurobond holders on the terms of a restructuring, after parliament last week approved a law allowing the government to suspend payments on external commercial debt, marks the beginning of a process resembling a default, the agency said in a statement.

The international agency notes that the agreement with creditors provides for a significant reduction in terms, including a reduction in the principal amount and interest, as well as an extension of the repayment terms.

Fitch expects the state will not service its external commercial debt, including the 2026 Eurobond coupon due on August 1, until a restructuring agreement with bondholders is completed.

The statement also said the bondholder agreement and debt suspension law are in line with the Ukrainian government's efforts to implement a four-year, $15.6 billion program with the International Monetary Fund that includes debt restructuring with significant debt reductions to create fiscal space and restore debt sustainability.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-ukraine-to-c-24-07-2024?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0hfr_vM1sxLAPhNLf8JmPSM_3FTqZ05tbxw_66tPn7JhoE-g4a-E0I3xc_aem_O0QzW1zV9tf7uTt-cm7ZLA

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40 minutes ago, ink said:

I know your comments run on über sarcasm but if Russia gets made great again while under sanctions by some of the biggest economies in the world and while fighting a war where there is zero chance of any economic gain, that will be a first in history.

I disagree, because the size and the available raw materials mean that Russia is one of the few countries which could be self-sufficient. Russia is in an absolutely privileged position, there are few countries in a similar position. (USA, China and to a lesser extent Canada, Australia and Brazil) Yet, the economy is not close to China or the USA.

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1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Can't open your link for some reason, what is it about?

I'm sorry but it is not Bolsheviks who are printing USD 1 trillion every 100 days now and pretending it is ok. So called "Russian assets" are peanuts compared to that, after all. And your Gov is following this best practice

UK public debt rises to highest since 1961 ahead of election | Reuters

Its the BBC, I guess the Russian Guvmint must be scared of what they are trying to say.

UK public debt still doesnt match economic output, so I fail to see the problem here. We are good for it.

Yes, but the point is, Russian assets are free. Its all very low hanging fruit, because we dont have to be accountable for Russian financial interest whilst this war is going on.

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1 hour ago, seahawk said:

I disagree, because the size and the available raw materials mean that Russia is one of the few countries which could be self-sufficient. Russia is in an absolutely privileged position, there are few countries in a similar position. (USA, China and to a lesser extent Canada, Australia and Brazil) Yet, the economy is not close to China or the USA.

I'm not sure I understood your point properly. That said, I'm not aware of any country getting rich by being self-sufficient (i.e. isolationist).

The best they can hope for, given the circumstances, is (economic) survival.

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2 minutes ago, ink said:

I'm not sure I understood your point properly. That said, I'm not aware of any country getting rich by being self-sufficient (i.e. isolationist).

The best they can hope for, given the circumstances, is (economic) survival.

Russia has access to many valuable raw materials. It could use it for its own industry or economy, or export some to build up the economy. It also had (as the Soviet Union) the needed industrial base and academic skill. Even the infrastructure was decent by comparison.

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5 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Russia has access to many valuable raw materials. It could use it for its own industry or economy, or export some to build up the economy. It also had (as the Soviet Union) the needed industrial base and academic skill. Even the infrastructure was decent by comparison.

Sure, those are all things they're going to need to survive. And trade with The Rest of the World™️ will possibly keep them alfoat. But that's without factoring in the cost of the war. That's gonna take its toll.

It's definitely an interesting scenario and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

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The problem you dont address, what happens when the corrupt elite cant steal any more because its going on the war effort, and they cant get it out the country, because ties with the west are broken?

If the Mafia state is anything like the Mafia, then its a pyramid. And if the lower orders are not getting the money they believe are due to them, because the boss is behaving like an idiot, then like as not it increases the threats to Putin. Ok, one or two oligarchs are not going to make much difference. But it is when it gets down to the rank and file, and my guess is they are already starting to suffer.

Once again, we have a Russian Government that believes it can build a solid state whilst indulging in corruption. This is an interesting perception, but one hat has not been borne out at any time in the last 150 years, so I fail to see why its going to work now.

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2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

RAF Rivet Joints cannot be refueled by RAF tankers which means that the RJ's have to rely on internal fuel which limits their lottering capability.

 

 

Presumably USAF tankers can be used instead. The bigger limitation over the Black Sea is probably the fighter escort.

Edited by Josh
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2 hours ago, seahawk said:

I disagree, because the size and the available raw materials mean that Russia is one of the few countries which could be self-sufficient. Russia is in an absolutely privileged position, there are few countries in a similar position. (USA, China and to a lesser extent Canada, Australia and Brazil) Yet, the economy is not close to China or the USA.

There is little prospect for major Russian economic growth due the war, its political system, and its long term demographics. Barring a major geopolitical change, I think the country is headed for stagnation.

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7 minutes ago, Josh said:

Presumably USAF tankers can be used instead. The bigger limitation over the Black Sea is probably the fighter escort.

There is probably a case for timely intelligence anyway. By which I mean, if they are locating targets, they perhaps have limited means to hand that information on before they land. It wouldnt make much sense to keep an RC135 on station for a considerable length of time if thats the case.

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55 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Is the war more expensive than what the corrupt Elite is currently stealing and sending to the West? I doubt it.

This rather assumes the elite are not still cutting out a share.

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1 hour ago, seahawk said:

Is the war more expensive than what the corrupt Elite is currently stealing and sending to the West? I doubt it.

 

43 minutes ago, Josh said:

This rather assumes the elite are not still cutting out a share.

Yes. This ⬆️

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2 hours ago, ink said:

 

Yes. This ⬆️

No doubt elite is still having their share, but 1) Now this share is staying inside Russia and 2) Elite's share was only part of what was looted (probably, even small part)  - since bigger part was de-facto given by this elite to West for free in return on West supporting this people in their elite position (at least, they believed they were supported).

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3 hours ago, Josh said:

Presumably USAF tankers can be used instead. The bigger limitation over the Black Sea is probably the fighter escort.

I can never remember the technical terms for refueling aircaft there is two different ways. Whatever the way the USA AF uses is incompatible with the one the RAF uses. That goes for our Eurofighters as well i'm not sure about the F35B's. Of course the RAF Rivet Joints can use the US method.

Edited by TrustMe
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4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The problem you dont address, what happens when the corrupt elite cant steal any more because its going on the war effort, and they cant get it out the country, because ties with the west are broken?

If the Mafia state is anything like the Mafia, then its a pyramid. And if the lower orders are not getting the money they believe are due to them, because the boss is behaving like an idiot, then like as not it increases the threats to Putin. Ok, one or two oligarchs are not going to make much difference. But it is when it gets down to the rank and file, and my guess is they are already starting to suffer.

No idea about where you get your model of Mafia from - but in Russia the state is not even close to pyramid. It is, rather, complex graph structure (probably, weighted graph would work as approximate model, but weights are constantly changing with time/events) that could be visualized as several overlapsing pyramids, but individual element may belong to more then one "pyramid".

  So the answer to "what happens when the corrupt elite cant steal any more because its going on the war effort, and they cant get it out the country, because ties with the west are broken" is simple: it will change the weights in the graph, some nods will loose their positions (some of them may end up in prison or be eliminated by "collegues" to prevent them spreading information) others will gain extra power...

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Once again, we have a Russian Government that believes it can build a solid state whilst indulging in corruption. This is an interesting perception, but one hat has not been borne out at any time in the last 150 years, so I fail to see why its going to work now.

Well, some Russian Oligarchs believe UK is more corrupt than Russia. But it is up to them.

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1 hour ago, TrustMe said:

I can never remember the technical terms for refueling aircaft there is two different ways. Whatever the way the USA AF uses is incompatible with the one the RAF uses. That goes for our Eurofighters as well i'm not sure about the F35B's. Of course the RAF Rivet Joints can use the US method.

USAF uses rigid booms; everyone else in the entire world (and USMC and USN) use probe and drogue (hoses), with the only other exception I can think of being the half dozen or so 707s of the IAF. The USAF adopted this in its SAC years because it is a much faster refill for bomber sized aircraft. A long time ago there actually were separate TAC probe and drogue tankers for fighter aircraft, but the fleet was consolidated. KC-10s and KC-46s can employ hose refueling pods on their wings to handle both methods and KC-135s can use an adaptor to switch to hose in place of boom.

The RAF Rivet Joint fleet is ex USAF so they are boom receivers unless the Brits modified them.

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