Josh Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 3 hours ago, ink said: Interesting stuff about the Russian economy: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/putin-lies-russian-economy-eu-ministers I think it is too hard to get accurate Russian economic numbers to determine anything absolutely. It does appear that there is a lot of inflation.
ink Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 52 minutes ago, Josh said: I think it is too hard to get accurate Russian economic numbers to determine anything absolutely. It does appear that there is a lot of inflation. Yes, I'm sure there is. Especially if it's true that they're burning through their cash reserves literally like there's no tomorrow.
Josh Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 3 minutes ago, ink said: Yes, I'm sure there is. Especially if it's true that they're burning through their cash reserves literally like there's no tomorrow. If the government is paying for production increases at 3-6x their pre war levels, as well as paying record numbers of contract soldiers record salaries, yes presumably the sovereign wealth fund is taking a hit. Especially with the sharp decline in gas sales and depressed oil prices. Some people pretend like Russia is simultaneously increasing production while shrugging off sanctions - well GDP may well be up, but if it is, it is only because the government is spending money hand over fist.
ink Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 15 minutes ago, Josh said: If the government is paying for production increases at 3-6x their pre war levels, as well as paying record numbers of contract soldiers record salaries, yes presumably the sovereign wealth fund is taking a hit. Especially with the sharp decline in gas sales and depressed oil prices. Some people pretend like Russia is simultaneously increasing production while shrugging off sanctions - well GDP may well be up, but if it is, it is only because the government is spending money hand over fist. One has to wonder how long they can keep it all going.
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 This to me doesn't speak of things going well. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C Feb 27 (Reuters),world's second largest oil exporter.
mkenny Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 2 hours ago, ink said: One has to wonder how long they can keep it all going. 2022 predictions https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/russia-faces-economic-oblivion-despite-short-term-resilience.html “Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia,” the report concluded. “Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual – the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.”
ink Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 29 minutes ago, mkenny said: 2022 predictions Oh sure. Look, I'm not saying there's any certainty and the finance ministers of those northern/eastern European countries in the article I linked definitely have skin in the game so they're saying what they're saying out of their own political interest. But also, there's no way Russia isn't taking a hit economically from all this. Will that be weighed out by reigning in oligarchs sending money abroad or the uneven trade balance with the West? I don't know. And I'm willing to bet there are very few people anywhere in the world who know the answer to that question. However, if history has taught us anything it's that wars cost money. Lots of money.
Josh Posted July 24, 2024 Posted July 24, 2024 (edited) 4 hours ago, ink said: One has to wonder how long they can keep it all going. Years, almost certainly, but likely at the expense of some future economic growth and military modernization cycles. But again, the numbers coming out of Russia seem unlikely to be completely truthful, those that we get, so I do not think there is enough data to draw any conclusions. Certainly the war is costing a lot of cash. Edited July 24, 2024 by Josh
mandeb48 Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 Generally, wars have broken countries. but there are nuances. The US came out heavily in debt but rich from the WWII. Great Britain the same as the Napoleonic Wars. We'll see what happens with Russia, I don't think it will come out of this war prosperous but it won't be destroyed either. Ukraine has a very dark future. Russia and Europe will still spend a mountain of money on this war.
seahawk Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 4 hours ago, mandeb48 said: Generally, wars have broken countries. but there are nuances. The US came out heavily in debt but rich from the WWII. Great Britain the same as the Napoleonic Wars. We'll see what happens with Russia, I don't think it will come out of this war prosperous but it won't be destroyed either. Ukraine has a very dark future. Russia and Europe will still spend a mountain of money on this war. US and China win, Europe looses.
Roman Alymov Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 5 hours ago, mandeb48 said: Generally, wars have broken countries. but there are nuances. The US came out heavily in debt but rich from the WWII. Great Britain the same as the Napoleonic Wars. We'll see what happens with Russia, I don't think it will come out of this war prosperous but it won't be destroyed either. Ukraine has a very dark future. Russia and Europe will still spend a mountain of money on this war. The basic thing to understand is that money Russia "will still spend on this war" were othervice just looted from nation and sent abroad (mostly, to West) by Russian elite. Now this money are invested into local industry and infrastructure (not only military one) and also on infrastructure projects like boubling BAM capacuty etc. Not to mention people who are now in Army, from all corners of Russia, are paid like upper middle class in Moscow was. It is allready resulting in jump of housing construction etc. in places that were traditionally the last to have any benefits.
Roman Alymov Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 Iskanders vs. tank repair workshop on former Kharkov Tank Plant. After first hit by HE Iskander, after some time cluster one was targeted on the same area, to prevent evacuation teams work - tactics adopted by pro-Rus side from adversary https://t.me/infomil_live/8296
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 9 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: The basic thing to understand is that money Russia "will still spend on this war" were othervice just looted from nation and sent abroad (mostly, to West) by Russian elite. Now this money are invested into local industry and infrastructure (not only military one) and also on infrastructure projects like boubling BAM capacuty etc. Not to mention people who are now in Army, from all corners of Russia, are paid like upper middle class in Moscow was. It is allready resulting in jump of housing construction etc. in places that were traditionally the last to have any benefits. But you can only spend it once. And personally, I dbout very much its money looted from the nation and sent abroad, because that is being frozen and being cut loose to the Ukrainian side. Russia can glad hand itself all it likes, banning petrolium export for 6 months is not telling a happy tale as far as your refinement infrastructure is concerned. It also is going to cost your country an arm and a let in lost revenue (although as you would be likely getting Indian Rupees, its perhaps not the disaster it might first appear). Im reminded of what happened in WW2. All the bomber barons eschewed bombing chemical or refinement plants, because they could see no apparent benefit from doing so. It is clear looking back at the history of WW2, that if we had just stuck with those and bombed nothing else, the war likely would have been over in months.
seahawk Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 16 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: The basic thing to understand is that money Russia "will still spend on this war" were othervice just looted from nation and sent abroad (mostly, to West) by Russian elite. Now this money are invested into local industry and infrastructure (not only military one) and also on infrastructure projects like boubling BAM capacuty etc. Not to mention people who are now in Army, from all corners of Russia, are paid like upper middle class in Moscow was. It is allready resulting in jump of housing construction etc. in places that were traditionally the last to have any benefits. Agreed, this could be the starting point to make Russia strong again. No more looting of Russian resources but investing in Russian capabilities. No more sending raw materials and knowledge to the West, but keeping them and using them in Russia and use them to fight the West.
Roman Alymov Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said: But you can only spend it once. And personally, I dbout very much its money looted from the nation and sent abroad, because that is being frozen and being cut loose to the Ukrainian side. Nice to see you understand that - since they were ALLREADY spend yearrs ago. Please excuse me for saving my typing by "re-using the code" from my old message dated May, 6 ( www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38972-cold-war-the-reimagined-series/page/396/#comment-1731353 ) "don't be illusioned: this assets are not something you could "liberate", as it is de-facto paper/digital records of amount of Russian resourses stolen by post-Soviet elites and given for free to West, for small kickback of palaces and yaghts, plus some % given to population and industry of Russia to silence complains about this theft. This money do not exist as something you could transform into physical form: resorces they were "paid" for are long since consumed, and to buy something practical with this funds, you must find somebody who will accept this de-facto IOUS in exchange for something physical. So de-facto it is no different from just printing some USD/GBP and going to China with them, with only difference printing money is not so destructive for London's reputation of safe haven for stolen assets from around the globe." So, as you see, this "assrts" could be "frozen", but they can't be "cut loose to the Ukrainian side" - as pro-Ukrainians need not IOUS but physical things like ammo, guns, oil, NG etc.
Roman Alymov Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 On 7/23/2024 at 1:40 AM, Yama said: One commentator summed up that much of US "public debt" is actually de facto taxation, which for ideological reason are not allowed to be called "taxes". As for me, not exactly so - at least not "taxation" in common form (share of labor taken by state from citizens and companies to be used elsewhere). Below is my take on it
Pavel Novak Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said: The basic thing to understand is that money Russia "will still spend on this war" were othervice just looted from nation and sent abroad (mostly, to West) by Russian elite. Now this money are invested into local industry and infrastructure (not only military one) and also on infrastructure projects like boubling BAM capacuty etc. Not to mention people who are now in Army, from all corners of Russia, are paid like upper middle class in Moscow was. It is allready resulting in jump of housing construction etc. in places that were traditionally the last to have any benefits. And why exactly should other people suffer because Russians cannot function without war, conquest and genocide???
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 9 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: Nice to see you understand that - since they were ALLREADY spend yearrs ago. Please excuse me for saving my typing by "re-using the code" from my old message dated May, 6 ( www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38972-cold-war-the-reimagined-series/page/396/#comment-1731353 ) "don't be illusioned: this assets are not something you could "liberate", as it is de-facto paper/digital records of amount of Russian resourses stolen by post-Soviet elites and given for free to West, for small kickback of palaces and yaghts, plus some % given to population and industry of Russia to silence complains about this theft. This money do not exist as something you could transform into physical form: resorces they were "paid" for are long since consumed, and to buy something practical with this funds, you must find somebody who will accept this de-facto IOUS in exchange for something physical. So de-facto it is no different from just printing some USD/GBP and going to China with them, with only difference printing money is not so destructive for London's reputation of safe haven for stolen assets from around the globe." So, as you see, this "assrts" could be "frozen", but they can't be "cut loose to the Ukrainian side" - as pro-Ukrainians need not IOUS but physical things like ammo, guns, oil, NG etc. They also need to rebuild infrastructure, which is in many case not something that can be left till the war ends (the electrical infrastructure for example). As for weaponry, we have been looking at using the interest on Russian money for doing just that. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67098994
Roman Alymov Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 1 minute ago, Pavel Novak said: And why exactly should other people suffer because Russians cannot function without war, conquest and genocide??? What other people you mean? The clercks, dog barbers, sex workers, property sellers etc. in places like London, Miami, Marbelia etc. who were serving stolen Russian assets? They are now "suffering" because their governments (thanks God!) have choked off this corrupt business. Three decades of prosperity was enough, now it's time for them to go and find another jobs to make the living. Or learn Chineese to serve Chineese stolen assets (but, with current trends, it will also end in some time).
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/ukraine-sends-troops-to-britain-to-learn-how-to-use-killer-starstreak-the-world-s-fastest-surface-to-air-missiles/ar-BB1qzqOL?ocid=BingHp01&cvid=ecce32c3ea604f4ec8f7ccf20e1d8675&ei=6 Ukraine announced that it has sent another batch of troops to Britain to train them in the use of the "Starstreak" air defense system—believed to be the fastest surface-to-air missile system in the world. Knewz.com has learned that the Ukrainian troops are being trained by the Armed Forces of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland at an undisclosed location. The latest development was announced by the Permanent Joint Headquarters of the UK and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on social media, along with pictures of military recruits undergoing training. "UK Armed Forces have been training Ukrainian recruits on Starstreak, a short-range, portable, air-defense system optimized to provide defense against air threats," the General Staff of the AFU wrote in a statement. "The training will help Ukrainian Recruits defend their sovereign skies from Russia’s illegal aerial advances." Starstreak is a short-range man-portable air defense system that can be mounted on armored vehicles or used in a Shoulder-Launched (SL) or Lightweight Multiple Launcher (LML) configuration.
Roman Alymov Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: They also need to rebuild infrastructure, which is in many case not something that can be left till the war ends (the electrical infrastructure for example). What electrical infrastructire you mean? 4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: As for weaponry, we have been looking at using the interest on Russian money for doing just that. See above, the interest on IOUS is also IOUS. Effectively, your Goverments are printing money under cover of "it is interest on Russian money". No practical difference. By the way another opinion on that
Pavel Novak Posted July 25, 2024 Posted July 25, 2024 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said: What other people you mean? The clercks, dog barbers, sex workers, property sellers etc. in places like London, Miami, Marbelia etc. who were serving stolen Russian assets? They are now "suffering" because their governments (thanks God!) have choked off this corrupt business. Three decades of prosperity was enough, now it's time for them to go and find another jobs to make the living. Or learn Chineese to serve Chineese stolen assets (but, with current trends, it will also end in some time). No, I don't mean other Russians. I mean people in other countries who are receiving doom of true "russki mir" because Russia has no other way how to solve its own domestic governancy problem. As you have said only in war can Russia do something with its endemic corruption. And what will happen when this war ends? Again total return of cleptocracy and again it wil be evil West praying upon poor russian soul - definitely no issue on russian side at all. Just see how awesome was russian governance in DNR/LNR before 2022 - total eldorado for muscovites - way worse than anything even the worse nazi ukrainians could come with. Edited July 25, 2024 by Pavel Novak
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