Kiev Is Burning

[X-Files]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Nothing will happen. 

 

Sadly true,  unless a 21st century version of Mark Bowden gets ahold of it.

[sunday]

58 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

With all my respect, I do not want to be dragged into this discussion - as ~100 mln Vietnamese surely got enough Internet users to say their world if they would like to. No need for me to be saying for them.

Let's agree to disagree, without falling in a fallacy ad populum.

[ink]

22 minutes ago, X-Files said:

 

That's nice.

 

How much Real World BDA have you done? 

 

Rhetorical question, because you can pucker up and criticize but can't do a better job of it.  🙄

Yeah, that's right, I forgot you can't criticise anything unless you can personally do it.

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

100 mln Vietnamese surely got enough Internet users to say their world if they would like to

It should be remembered that Vietnam is a one-party communist-ruled state. That makes you think about what you write on the internet.
It is highly doubtful that the war crimes of the Vietnam War can be researched ALL-ROUND there.
In Russia, hold up a sign with the word WAR in the air... 😉

[X-Files]

17 minutes ago, ink said:

Yeah, that's right, I forgot you can't criticise anything unless you can personally do it.

 

Oh, you *can* all you like  - you just reveal who you really are.

[ink]

42 minutes ago, X-Files said:

 

Oh, you *can* all you like  - you just reveal who you really are.

Now, you read a lot of stupid shit on here but this really is too much. I take it you think everything you can't do is just amazing, right? Because that's who you really are!

[bojan]

1 hour ago, X-Files said:

How much Real World BDA have you done? 

People that ran Oryx did not do it either - those were the guys that claimed that every Jihadi TOW video from Syria that cuts after hit was a kill because "TOW outmatches armor of all vehicles used in Syria". Out of 3 guys that used to ran it none served in the military. They are unreliabl, which was proven multiple times before - doubles, misidentification etc. They are worshiped because they are doing mammoth task, and even if they are doing it badly there are few other options available for Russian loses. They are basically only working restaurant in town, even if their food is junk they will do OK because people have no alternative.

For Ukrainian loses lostarmour.info* is way more reliable, even through it is showing lower Ukrainian loses than Oryx (due the higher level of validation required). You can take their number as baseline minimum.

*They also have 3 HIMARS as loses.

Edited July 11 by bojan

[txtree99]

 

[X-Files]

38 minutes ago, bojan said:

People that ran Oryx did not do it either - those were the guys that claimed that every Jihadi TOW video from Syria that cuts after hit was a kill because "TOW outmatches armor of all vehicles used in Syria". Out of 3 guys that used to ran it none served in the military. They are unreliabl, which was proven multiple times before - doubles, misidentification etc. They are worshiped because they are doing mammoth task, and even if they are doing it badly there are few other options available for Russian loses. They are basically only working restaurant in town, even if their food is junk they will do OK because people have no alternative.

For Ukrainian loses lostarmour.info* is way more reliable, even through it is showing lower Ukrainian loses than Oryx (due the higher level of validation required). You can take their number as baseline minimum.

*They also have 3 HIMARS as loses.

 Exactly so - they're doing the best they can with what they have while other folks sit on the sidelines and whine like typical RedditWayOfWarriors. 🙄 

I've done it as both a civilian and a soldier.  It's not anything approaching easy unless you're *there* and even then it's an inexact exercise.

To vett using only video/photographic proof in a rapidly changing environment is a viable option but obviously limited to what graphic information Oryx gets.

I find Lost Armor to be ponderous MLRS losses in the armed conflict in Ukraine 2014-2023 (lostarmour.info)

The other option is to do a bell curve with what the Ukrainians claim/Russians admit viz Russians claim/Ukrainians admit.

Edited July 11 by X-Files

[txtree99]

 

[X-Files]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Now, you read a lot of stupid shit on here but this really is too much. I take it you think everything you can't do is just amazing, right? Because that's who you really are!

No one cares about your opinion on Oryx,  nor do you have anything useful to add to the conversation about better sources of BDA. 

No go ask mommy to give you another gold star.

 

Edited July 11 by X-Files

[bojan]

1 hour ago, X-Files said:

 Exactly so - they're doing the best they can with what they have while other folks sit on the sidelines and whine like typical RedditWayOfWarriors. 

My main problem is not with them*, but with people who take it as a gospel, while they are just another semi-reliable source. I said it before it is a useful guideline, you can probably take 75% of their claims to be Russian loses and hit a ballpark number, but arguing that "Russians lost X or Y vehicles" is a fool's errant.

Their Ukrainian loses are also a mess, they don't have some quite documented loses, but have IIRC 2 Leo 2 more lost than lostarmour claims.

So yeah, as said previously, OK for general feel, but not for arguing accurate numbers.

*Other than their childish behavior and cheering for Jihadist in Syria...

Quote

I find Lost Armor to be ponderous

It is more difficult to navigate with loads of drop down menus.

Edited July 11 by bojan

[glenn239]

9 hours ago, X-Files said:

 

Yeah?  What if those 'foreign personnel' were Americans?

If any of the crews were American then Washington will have known that quickly, and this information was not made public.  So there are two possibilities, either they were not American, or the policy currently is that such losses will not be made public.  

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 hours ago, seahawk said:

This looks like a much smaller warhead. Say Patriot.

We already crossed that off pages ago.

[Stefan Kotsch]

Actually a fruitless discussion. If the Russians didn't constantly 'shower' the Ukrainians with missiles and bombs, then anti-aircraft missiles wouldn't be fired. Russia is fully responsible. 

[ink]

54 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Actually a fruitless discussion. If the Russians didn't constantly 'shower' the Ukrainians with missiles and bombs, then anti-aircraft missiles wouldn't be fired. Russia is fully responsible. 

That weird feeling when I agree with you, Stefan 😵‍💫

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Actually a fruitless discussion. If the Russians didn't constantly 'shower' the Ukrainians with missiles and bombs, then anti-aircraft missiles wouldn't be fired. Russia is fully responsible. 

The aggression started against Russian people in Donbass.

[seahawk]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

We already crossed that off pages ago.

Here the Ukaronazis placed remains of a Kh-101 in the rubble to frame Russia.

https://t.me/Tsaplienko/56653

[Stefan Kotsch]

39 minutes ago, seahawk said:

The aggression started ... Russia ... in Donbass.

Ok, that's how you can say it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

29 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Here the Ukaronazis placed remains of a Kh-101 in the rubble to frame Russia.

https://t.me/Tsaplienko/56653

Thats right, they just... jacked the building up, to collapse the building on its flacid remains.

 

[ink]

If Bojan's right and there was an incomplete detonation of the warhead, was it safe to allow civilians to pull down the roof with ropes?

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/horrified-russian-pilot-dobs-in-30-fellow-bombers-after-strike-on-children-s-hospital/ar-BB1pOMBO

A Russian pilot was so horrified by the Kremlin bombing of a children’s cancer hospital that he has snitched on 30 of his “bomber command” colleagues to Ukraine, it was claimed last night.

Shortly after the bombing in Kyiv this week - which sent terrified children attached to drips fleeing for their lives - the mystery flier secretly contacted Ukraine’s security service. And he handed over photographs, names and personal details of all 30 of Russia’s top bombers allegedly behind the brutal cruise missile campaign against Ukraine’s civilians.

After going online with Kyiv’s GUR Main Intelligence he handed over a huge dossier on the command staff of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division. It is this bomber division that is, it is claimed, behind all of the Kh-101 cruise missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities recently.

Medics evacuate children from the Okhmatdit children's clinic, which was damaged after a rocket attack© Aleksandr Gusev/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

The attack on Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt hospital sent shock waves around the world and drew global condemnation from international leaders. The files - which were sent to the GUR online - even included the names and details of members of the pilots’ family and loved ones.

The staggering leak came from “aircraft unit 06987” Engels Airfield, the base from where bomber planes are taking off to unleash their Kh-101 cruise missiles. Several units of Moscow’s “bomber command” are based at Engels, near Saratov which is around 450 miles from the Ukraine border.

Rubble and debris remain in a building of one of the largest children's hospitals in Ukraine which was, partially destroyed by a Russian missile strike© Global Images Ukraine via Getty

It is home to Russia’s long range TU-160 “Black Jack bombers and TU-95MS Bear bomber warplanes and has been attacked by Ukraine before. In April as many as six of Russia’s planes there were sabotaged by Ukraine’s special forces and SBU spy unit.

A report in Ukraine’s Pravda website claims: “He wrote that he was shocked by the attack on the children’s hospital so he decided to hand over to the Ukrainian side documents on this military unit, as well as private photos of the command staff of the 22nd heavy bomber aviation division.”

[TonyE]

14 hours ago, bojan said:

They are worshiped because they are doing mammoth task, and even if they are doing it badly there are few other options available for Russian loses. They are basically only working restaurant in town, even if their food is junk they will do OK because people have no alternative.

Ukr.warspotting.net is somewhat better than Oryx although they only do russian losses at the moment, they do have a category for losses that are of unknown origins. As they source a lot of their material from Oryx however accuracy is propably still an issue.

The whole counting thing has really reached obsessive levels tbh.

[sunday]

18 minutes ago, TonyE said:

The whole counting thing has really reached obsessive levels tbh.

 

[ink]

36 minutes ago, TonyE said:

The whole counting thing has really reached obsessive levels tbh.

It can be a really useful resource!

Many years ago, in the early days of the internet, I remember a particularly useful source of historical maritime security data was an autistic Israeli kid who religiously collected every bit of news on piracy attacks around the world in English, Russian, and Hebrew and posted them online.