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Kiev Is Burning


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1 hour ago, ink said:

Are the Russians still firing cruise missiles from or over Belarus? Because, for Kiev, that wouldn't give F-16s much time to react.

They have at least one SAAB AWACS from Sweden now. Might give a bit more raid warning if they can integrate it successfully.

Not only that, we might get raid warning from transmissions. We dont really know how they are transmitting their firing instructions, and much of that might get picked up by Rivet Joint.

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1 hour ago, ink said:

Are the Russians still firing cruise missiles from or over Belarus? Because, for Kiev, that wouldn't give F-16s much time to react.

Here is "official" pro-Ukr map of missiles flight routes during yesterday strike, no idea how accurate it is

4aa176e882e64ad7e43fc10b7e1bceac_o.jpg

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40 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

  Well, actually we do not know how successfull air defence was (since no reliable information on number of missiles launched  - and pro-Ukrainians are claiming victory as always). Some air defence launches were detected and, moreover, the hit on hospital is widely believed to be misfunctional NASAMS missile - based on unclear frames from video showing incoming missile

6e7d8d5ce4_5.webp

image.png.ebfe125f0d67e067e7768f4b63889f0a.png

and the fact explosion/damage was too small for 400kg warhead of X-101, plus lack of fire caused by jet fuel in cruise missile fuel tanks.

    But what we do know for sure from images available is that this time X-101 were of a version without decoy flares, it might be taken as indicstion RusAF command know something about enemy AD that makes them think it is no need to waste weight on decoys.

   More over, right after the strike pro-Ukrainians were reporting pro-Rus drone over the city evaluating strike results - something that was not reported before, at least since 2022.

There is a plenty of speculations about potential reasons. For example, this is what was reported by UkrGov leaks channel few days ago (July, 7 https://t.me/rezident_ua/23413   ) 

"Our source at the General Staff reported that three mobile air defense units are being re-created, which will hunt enemy aircraft. Western instructors abandoned such operations after the destruction of three units in the spring and are now urgently preparing crews from Ukrainians who will serve Patriot on the front line."

That's, of course, typical Russian bullshit.

The Kh-101 has a distinctive profile, especially its engine inlet, and that can be clearly seen on the various videos. The engine exhaust is also visible.

ll5BpUd.png

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48 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

  Well, actually we do not know how successfull air defence was (since no reliable information on number of missiles launched  - and pro-Ukrainians are claiming victory as always). Some air defence launches were detected and, moreover, the hit on hospital is widely believed to be misfunctional NASAMS missile - based on unclear frames from video showing incoming missile

6e7d8d5ce4_5.webp

image.png.ebfe125f0d67e067e7768f4b63889f0a.png

and the fact explosion/damage was too small for 400kg warhead of X-101, plus lack of fire caused by jet fuel in cruise missile fuel tanks.

    But what we do know for sure from images available is that this time X-101 were of a version without decoy flares, it might be taken as indicstion RusAF command know something about enemy AD that makes them think it is no need to waste weight on decoys.

   More over, right after the strike pro-Ukrainians were reporting pro-Rus drone over the city evaluating strike results - something that was not reported before, at least since 2022.

There is a plenty of speculations about potential reasons. For example, this is what was reported by UkrGov leaks channel few days ago (July, 7 https://t.me/rezident_ua/23413   ) 

"Our source at the General Staff reported that three mobile air defense units are being re-created, which will hunt enemy aircraft. Western instructors abandoned such operations after the destruction of three units in the spring and are now urgently preparing crews from Ukrainians who will serve Patriot on the front line."

Another lie by the West exposed. Thank you.

Not that the resemblance between the missile in the screenshot and the enlarged version is a bit lacking...

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It is Kh-101, there is little doubt about that:

ILRkKDg.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, bojan said:

It is Kh-101, there is little doubt about that:

ILRkKDg.jpeg

Note this version of the picture is far better quality then on original screenshot, leaving large field of guesses what magic have improved it

6e7d8d5ce4_5.webp

 Anyway, claimed deathtoll of two (2) is not matching direct strike by 400kg warhead.

2024-07-08T130135Z_1748016201_RC2XQ8AZ5P

  Note the roof was not blown high and away, but just collapsed down and was later just moved away by crowd on hands

103741.jpeg

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4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Two more HIMARS launchers hit by Iskander while preparing to launch (ATACMS? see elevation angle) from highway near Novopetrovka, Kherson region 

https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/17005

Indonesian version of RusMod video from previous night showing what is claimed to be the strike on the same three HIMARS launchers that were involved in attack on Sevastopol

Uncut video on TG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/129400

That's 5 HIMARs in a few days?  

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4 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

That's 5 HIMARs in a few days?  

In two days. But it is claims, who knows if it is real HIMARS, not decoys etc. Anyway, no doubt any HIMARS launchers losses will be quickly compensated by US&Co.

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4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Note this version of the picture is far better quality then on original screenshot, leaving large field of guesses what magic have improved it

6e7d8d5ce4_5.webp

 Anyway, claimed deathtoll of two (2) is not matching direct strike by 400kg warhead.

2024-07-08T130135Z_1748016201_RC2XQ8AZ5P

  Note the roof was not blown high and away, but just collapsed down and was later just moved away by crowd on hands

103741.jpeg

 

That video frame you picked is very clearly not the same frame. And yes, ive seen video quality change that much between frames, so it proves nothing.

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51 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

That video frame you picked is very clearly not the same frame. And yes, ive seen video quality change that much between frames, so it proves nothing.

Don't bother. Roman isn't stupid, he knows this was a Russian cruise missile. 

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55 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

 

I would assume. I would suspect an artillery hit from a smaller caliber, maybe a mortar. I would think anything with an actually HEAT warhead would have totaled the vehicle.

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6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

 Also note that as pro-Ukrainians are out of Tochka-Us, claims of "Russians using Tochka-U missiles" is also down to none.

Occam's razor points out that it's more likely that Russians are out of Tochka-U's...

Any recent sightings of North Korean missiles?

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2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

That's 5 HIMARs in a few days?  

Can't see the second video, but in the first I just see three long vehicles, which might be HIMARS or some other type of MLRS, but might also be say, tankers.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Yama said:

Occam's razor points out that it's more likely that Russians are out of Tochka-U's...

Any recent sightings of North Korean missiles?

Apparently the batch the Russians had ran out. Some Ukrainians are saying the accuracy was too low that Russia stopped using them entirely but that doesn’t make much sense to me. They’d still launch them at Ukraine regardless how inaccurate they are, and in the opening days of their use, the missiles were scoring direct hits on Ukrainian military facilities 

Edited by crazyinsane105
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29 minutes ago, Yama said:

Occam's razor points out that it's more likely that Russians are out of Tochka-U's...

Any recent sightings of North Korean missiles?

That is not razor at all, since it was iniginally idea that since Russia is out of relatively new Iskander missiles and can't produce them in adequate quantity due to economy weakness and Western sanctions, it will be increasing number of old Tichka-U used instead of Iskanders. But nothing like that happened: only few cases were claimed by pro-Ukrainians as "Russians using Tochka-U" and that was it - no massive use at all (despite of in theory there should be far morfe Tochka-Us in stock then Iskanders).

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Meanwhile Saudi Arabia plays own game

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/saudi-arabia-veiled-threat-to-g7-over-russia-assets

Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat

Since it is obvious West can't "return" Russian assets (they do not exist), i wonder what is KSA plan and goals....

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3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia plays own game

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/saudi-arabia-veiled-threat-to-g7-over-russia-assets

Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat

Since it is obvious West can't "return" Russian assets (they do not exist), i wonder what is KSA plan and goals....

Most likely getting some concession after which they'll drop their opposition to such a measure. 

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