Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

P.S. For comparison   - drone video of roof collapsing after 152mm Krasnopol' guided projectile hit https://t.me/infomil_live/7884

[Roman Alymov]

Yesterday video from Kiev of what is claimed to be missile shot down and falling

https://t.me/rezident_ua/23420

Edited July 9, 2024 by Roman Alymov

[txtree99]

 

[txtree99]

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

Something enjoyable. Really cool man. Turn the sound up!

https://x.com/memagram/status/1810674877378056609

Edited July 9, 2024 by Stefan Kotsch

[Roman Alymov]

13 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

 

Another drone found by locals in Volgograd region 

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Two more HIMARS launchers hit by Iskander while preparing to launch (ATACMS? see elevation angle) from highway near Novopetrovka, Kherson region 

https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/17005

Indonesian version of RusMod video from previous night showing what is claimed to be the strike on the same three HIMARS launchers that were involved in attack on Sevastopol

Uncut video on TG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/129400

That's 5 HIMARs in a few days?  

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

That's 5 HIMARs in a few days?  

In two days. But it is claims, who knows if it is real HIMARS, not decoys etc. Anyway, no doubt any HIMARS launchers losses will be quickly compensated by US&Co.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Note this version of the picture is far better quality then on original screenshot, leaving large field of guesses what magic have improved it

 Anyway, claimed deathtoll of two (2) is not matching direct strike by 400kg warhead.

  Note the roof was not blown high and away, but just collapsed down and was later just moved away by crowd on hands

 

That video frame you picked is very clearly not the same frame. And yes, ive seen video quality change that much between frames, so it proves nothing.

[txtree99]

 

[txtree99]

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1810623277359911246?s=61&t=IZXtqtU-ivwfbke5UMfWTA

[Der Zeitgeist]

51 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

That video frame you picked is very clearly not the same frame. And yes, ive seen video quality change that much between frames, so it proves nothing.

Don't bother. Roman isn't stupid, he knows this was a Russian cruise missile. 

[Josh]

55 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

 

I would assume. I would suspect an artillery hit from a smaller caliber, maybe a mortar. I would think anything with an actually HEAT warhead would have totaled the vehicle.

[Yama]

6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

 Also note that as pro-Ukrainians are out of Tochka-Us, claims of "Russians using Tochka-U missiles" is also down to none.

Occam's razor points out that it's more likely that Russians are out of Tochka-U's...

Any recent sightings of North Korean missiles?

[Yama]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

That's 5 HIMARs in a few days?  

Can't see the second video, but in the first I just see three long vehicles, which might be HIMARS or some other type of MLRS, but might also be say, tankers.

[crazyinsane105]

24 minutes ago, Yama said:

Occam's razor points out that it's more likely that Russians are out of Tochka-U's...

Any recent sightings of North Korean missiles?

Apparently the batch the Russians had ran out. Some Ukrainians are saying the accuracy was too low that Russia stopped using them entirely but that doesn’t make much sense to me. They’d still launch them at Ukraine regardless how inaccurate they are, and in the opening days of their use, the missiles were scoring direct hits on Ukrainian military facilities 

Edited July 9, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[Roman Alymov]

29 minutes ago, Yama said:

Occam's razor points out that it's more likely that Russians are out of Tochka-U's...

Any recent sightings of North Korean missiles?

That is not razor at all, since it was iniginally idea that since Russia is out of relatively new Iskander missiles and can't produce them in adequate quantity due to economy weakness and Western sanctions, it will be increasing number of old Tichka-U used instead of Iskanders. But nothing like that happened: only few cases were claimed by pro-Ukrainians as "Russians using Tochka-U" and that was it - no massive use at all (despite of in theory there should be far morfe Tochka-Us in stock then Iskanders).

[Roman Alymov]

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia plays own game

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/saudi-arabia-veiled-threat-to-g7-over-russia-assets

Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat

Since it is obvious West can't "return" Russian assets (they do not exist), i wonder what is KSA plan and goals....

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia plays own game

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/saudi-arabia-veiled-threat-to-g7-over-russia-assets

Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat

Since it is obvious West can't "return" Russian assets (they do not exist), i wonder what is KSA plan and goals....

Most likely getting some concession after which they'll drop their opposition to such a measure. 

[mkenny]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia plays own game

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/saudi-arabia-veiled-threat-to-g7-over-russia-assets

Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat

Since it is obvious West can't "return" Russian assets (they do not exist), i wonder what is KSA plan and goals....

It is behind a paywall but this isn't  https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-threatened-sell-european-debt-if-g-7-seized-russian-assets-report

Edited July 9, 2024 by mkenny

[bojan]

10 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Note this version of the picture is far better quality then on original screenshot, leaving large field of guesses what magic have improved it...

Angle is different, so it is taken by something/someone else. Photo also does not have any signs of manipulation.

Quote

 Anyway, claimed deathtoll of two (2) is not matching direct strike by 400kg warhead. Note the roof was not blown high and away, but just collapsed down and was later just moved away by crowd on hands

Agree that damage is too limited for 400kg warhead, but it is also too much for AIM-120 20kg warhead (out of which less then half is explosives - in all effects similar to single 122mm shell at best). 

So in the case of two choices, one unlikely (partial detonation of warhead, not unheard of thing) and impossible one (20kg warhead collapsing building like that) - I know which I will choose to believe in, unless some better evidence (like pic of larger AD missile) than comparison using bad pixelated pic is showed.

 

Edited July 9, 2024 by bojan

[bojan]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

I would assume. I would suspect an artillery hit from a smaller caliber, maybe a mortar.

My bet also, it probably hit it from above, between main armor* and add on (empty space between add-on steel plate and base sloped armor is open from a top, which explains both removal of add-on and breaking through of main armor.

*Main armor in that place is only IIRC 1" aluminium, about 10mm equivalent in steel so 120mm mortar shell would have no problem breaking it in that way.

 

Edited July 9, 2024 by bojan

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Most likely getting some concession after which they'll drop their opposition to such a measure. 

Or it’s possible they want to ensure the same won’t happen to them in the future, so they are acting proactively now 

[crazyinsane105]

3 hours ago, bojan said:

Angle is different, so it is taken by something/someone else. Photo also does not have any signs of manipulation.

Agree that damage is too limited for 400kg warhead, but it is also too much for AIM-120 20kg warhead (out of which less then half is explosives - in all effects similar to single 122mm shell at best). 

So in the case of two choices, one unlikely (partial detonation of warhead, not unheard of thing) and impossible one (20kg warhead collapsing building like that) - I know which I will choose to believe in, unless some better evidence (like pic of larger AD missile) than comparison using bad pixelated pic is showed.

 

Patriot SAM has around a 200 pound warhead, but pics aren’t relevant to that of a Patriot.

Interested to note why Russians aren’t trying to overwhelm Patriot batteries around Kiev and instead target other areas. More or less concept is same: missiles are flying extremely low to avoid detection until last minute. Unlikely that Patriot batteries will stand a chance against such an attack

[seahawk]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Patriot SAM has around a 200 pound warhead, but pics aren’t relevant to that of a Patriot.

Interested to note why Russians aren’t trying to overwhelm Patriot batteries around Kiev and instead target other areas. More or less concept is same: missiles are flying extremely low to avoid detection until last minute. Unlikely that Patriot batteries will stand a chance against such an attack

In fact Russia has created a huge gap in the IADS of the Ukraine in the last weeks. More successful strikes will follow. The Ukrainian cities will bleed.