Kiev Is Burning

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://time.com/6995723/russian-missiles-ukraine-kryvyi-rih/

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A major Russian missile attack across Ukraine killed at least 20 people and injured more than 50 on Monday, officials said, with one missile striking a large children’s hospital in the capital, Kyiv, where emergency crews searched rubble for casualties.

The Russian barrage targeted five Ukrainian cities with more than 40 missiles of different types, hitting apartment buildings and public infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a social media post.

 

Strikes in Kryvyi Rih, in central Ukraine, killed 10 people and injured 37, in what the head of city administration, Oleksandr Vilkul, said was a massive missile attack.

At the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv, rescuers were searching for people under the rubble of a partially collapsed wing of the facility, Zelenskyy said, adding that the number of casualties was not yet known.

Vsevolod Dorofieiev, the senior instructor of a volunteer medical unit, said some people had died but he did not say how many or whether they were children or adults.

[JWB]

Exaggerating?

 

[ink]

9 minutes ago, JWB said:

Exaggerating?

 

Exaggerating the casualties or the captured territory? Because 430 square miles is about the size of Andorra. It would be hard to exaggerate less.

 

EDIT: I googled it and turns out I was out by quite a wide margin. Hong Kong is in the same ballpark.

Edited July 8 by ink
to correct himself.

[JWB]

 

[bojan]

2 hours ago, JWB said:

Exaggerating?

 

Number of death? To say at least:

[alejandro_]

UA losses have updated their data. Since February 2022 at least +50,000 soldiers and military personnel have been killed.

https://ualosses.org/soldiers/

[Roman Alymov]

RusTV report on underground tunnel constructed to bypass pro-Ukr defence lines near Toretsk https://t.me/VOENKOR_ZENIN/696

[Roman Alymov]

Good video of yesterday's strike by at least 6 cruise missiles on  "Artyom* plant" in central Kiev (producer of gidance systems, missiles etc. including "Neptun" missiles)

https://t.me/dva_majors/46968

*named after "Comrade Artyom" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fyodor_Sergeyev ), the same person Bakhmut was renamed Artyomovsk after

P.S. Compilation from Indonesians

 

Edited July 9 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

RT report (in English) on T-80 crew at work in Volchansk https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4911

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. rare RADA MHR radar, Kharkov region https://t.me/anna_news/68433

[Roman Alymov]

Cluster Iskander (?) vs. big column of trucks, Sumy region https://t.me/boris_rozhin/129428

[ink]

These strikes on downtown Kiev (including the children's hospital) appear to have gone largely unopposed by air defences. Have the Ukrainians become complacent and sent their Patriots for duty elsewhere?

[Pavel Novak]

58 minutes ago, ink said:

These strikes on downtown Kiev (including the children's hospital) appear to have gone largely unopposed by air defences. Have the Ukrainians become complacent and sent their Patriots for duty elsewhere?

Out of missiles?

[Ssnake]

News here reported that 30 of 38 missiles had been intercepted. That's not complacency, it's the erosion of an air defense system that was predicted as early as mid 2022. That's why there's this struggle to field more Patriots, more IRIS-T, more NASAMs, more Gepards, to dig out HAWK, and other antiquities.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Apparently Hawk is working. But unless someone can make a sweet deal with Iran who still make Hawk rounds, even those are still a finite number.

I idly wonder if we are going to end up donating Skysabre, because there doesnt seem to be a lot else out there at the moment.

Its bad enough for Ukraine, but you can imagine what it would have been like if we had been at war with Russia ourselves. Our air defence capacity across NATO is a mess.

[ink]

18 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

News here reported that 30 of 38 missiles had been intercepted. That's not complacency, it's the erosion of an air defense system that was predicted as early as mid 2022. That's why there's this struggle to field more Patriots, more IRIS-T, more NASAMs, more Gepards, to dig out HAWK, and other antiquities.

Assuming that figure is correct (and I very much don't), it should still be worrying for the Ukrainians that some of the missiles that made it through are relatively lethargic cruise missiles flying at a reasonable altitude.

[Der Zeitgeist]

27 minutes ago, ink said:

Assuming that figure is correct (and I very much don't), it should still be worrying for the Ukrainians that some of the missiles that made it through are relatively lethargic cruise missiles flying at a reasonable altitude.

By now they're essentially out of missiles for their S300 and Buk systems. Covering a country of that size with a handful of Patriot batteries and some assorted lower-range stuff isn't easy when they constantly have to shift systems around to cover airfields, logistics, their frontline and their big cities.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The F16's when they arrive are going to have a good lookdown shootdown capability, which is going to help via cruise. There isnt a lot that can be done for iskander unfortunately.

[ink]

35 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The F16's when they arrive are going to have a good lookdown shootdown capability, which is going to help via cruise. There isnt a lot that can be done for iskander unfortunately.

Are the Russians still firing cruise missiles from or over Belarus? Because, for Kiev, that wouldn't give F-16s much time to react.

[seahawk]

And put the well in range of S500, S400 and R-37M. So it would be a suicide mission to fly there. Fact is that the Ukraine has lost the war, it is only a matter of dead Russians (on both sides) till the defeat becomes reality.

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, ink said:

These strikes on downtown Kiev (including the children's hospital) appear to have gone largely unopposed by air defences. 

  Well, actually we do not know how successfull air defence was (since no reliable information on number of missiles launched  - and pro-Ukrainians are claiming victory as always). Some air defence launches were detected and, moreover, the hit on hospital is widely believed to be misfunctional NASAMS missile - based on unclear frames from video showing incoming missile

and the fact explosion/damage was too small for 400kg warhead of X-101, plus lack of fire caused by jet fuel in cruise missile fuel tanks.

    But what we do know for sure from images available is that this time X-101 were of a version without decoy flares, it might be taken as indicstion RusAF command know something about enemy AD that makes them think it is no need to waste weight on decoys.

   More over, right after the strike pro-Ukrainians were reporting pro-Rus drone over the city evaluating strike results - something that was not reported before, at least since 2022.

3 hours ago, ink said:

 Have the Ukrainians become complacent and sent their Patriots for duty elsewhere?

There is a plenty of speculations about potential reasons. For example, this is what was reported by UkrGov leaks channel few days ago (July, 7 https://t.me/rezident_ua/23413   ) 

"Our source at the General Staff reported that three mobile air defense units are being re-created, which will hunt enemy aircraft. Western instructors abandoned such operations after the destruction of three units in the spring and are now urgently preparing crews from Ukrainians who will serve Patriot on the front line."

[Roman Alymov]

Two more HIMARS launchers hit by Iskander while preparing to launch (ATACMS? see elevation angle) from highway near Novopetrovka, Kherson region 

https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/17005

Indonesian version of RusMod video from previous night showing what is claimed to be the strike on the same three HIMARS launchers that were involved in attack on Sevastopol

Uncut video on TG https://t.me/boris_rozhin/129400

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

By now they're essentially out of missiles for their S300 and Buk systems. 

Note that with UkrArmy effectively out of S-300 missiles, number of reports of "Russians uding S-300 missiles to target Ukrainian cities" is significantly down (while, if true, number of such cases is supposed to grow, not fall). Also note that as pro-Ukrainians are out of Tochka-Us, claims of "Russians using Tochka-U missiles" is also down to none.

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. M777. note hot air "ring" created by gun shot and well visible in IR

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/129490

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Apparently Hawk is working. But unless someone can make a sweet deal with Iran who still make Hawk rounds, even those are still a finite number.

I idly wonder if we are going to end up donating Skysabre, because there doesnt seem to be a lot else out there at the moment.

It’s bad enough for Ukraine, but you can imagine what it would have been like if we had been at war with Russia ourselves. Our air defence capacity across NATO is a mess.

The big difference is that NATO could reciprocate the effort on Russian infrastructure and bases. That is not to say that NATO does not need to invest a lot more effort in AD, just to point out that Russia could not attack infrastructure with impunity either. Imagine if all the refinery attacks of this year were performed in a single strike.