Kiev Is Burning

[mkenny]

34 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

No, its not been the immediate success we had hoped. But its clearly impacting them, and if it didnt achieve strategic effects overnight, neither did the blockade of the Germans in both world wars. In the long run, however, they proved decisive, and so might the damage to the Russian economy. The only quesiton is how long its going to take.

 

We were given a timetable and it was not even remotely expected in 'the long term'. It was assumed it would be months. I get why the more enthusaistic cold-war warriors are trying to walk back their hubris but by any measure the economic war with Russia is over-the west lost.

[Stuart Galbraith]

28 minutes ago, seahawk said:

A first step would to really use all the stuff that is still in depots - be it private or military. OIP in Belgium alone still has about 300 armoured vehicles. Kürassier tanks, M113, etc.

The US depots could probably provided M113 for years and also M1.

One important thing for Europe would decide on having a depot for used and retired vehicles as a war reserve. Ideally somewhere in Spain.

Sure. I look at how many FV432's we have with something approaching horror. We have the Boxer on the production line now, we have no more excuses for no fully replacing them.

It would be helpful if NATO decided, if it cant actually commit to a common fighter aircraft or tank, then it could commit to a common truck. Or at the very least, a common design. We could all commit to it, test it, and build our own, and add to a stockpile of them.

There is quite a lot we coudl do if we worked together, rather than just look at this as an opportunity help our own national economies. We have been doing too much of that since the cold war.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 minute ago, mkenny said:

We were given a timetable and it was not even remotely expected in 'the long term'. It was assumed it would be months. I get why the more enthusaistic cold-war warriors are trying to walk back their hubris but by any measure the economic war with Russia is over-the west lost.

So the timetable was wrong. It was likewise believed in 1939 that the blockade would swiftly bring Nazi Germany down. It didnt. But at length, it did anyway.

As far as I can see, there is only one enthusiastic cold war warrior, and thats the chairborne old fart sat in the Kremlin. Maybe if he spent a couple of years in Afghanistan getting dysentery he wouldnt be so keen on it.

[ink]

44 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You say that its inevitably failed. From what I read the Russian economy is in the doldrums, and shows no sign of improving.

This does chime somewhat with what I've been hearing from Russian émigrés here in Belgrade. Although, to be clear, they are mostly living the life of Riley on their Russian salaries here... But they are hearing ominous news from back home.

[Ssnake]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Instead we keep getting into arguments about the French wanting to build ammunition factories in their country, or the Germans want to build a tank plant in Ukraine

Well, it's not "the Germans" who want to build a tank factory, it's one particular company, and as far as I'm concerned, they've shown a lot more initiative in the whole affair than pretty much anyone else. So, as far as I'm concerned, more power to them. They at least seem to have a plan for practical measures.

International committees and consortiums waste more time wagging their chins than we have. I'm still seeing mostly business as usual in ministerial bureaucracies all over the place. Granted, I'm exposed to only the training & simulation part, and arguably that's a secindary field when we need artillery shells by the milions. But I do know that people who think that the situation is serious act differently. Some good people in these organizations try to move and shake, but the vast majority don't.

[Yama]

4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

That's what Russia hopes, but actually it's worse, there are no contracts for new hardware that could be sent to Ukraine, so the West is counting on cheap items like FPV drones and artillery to kill enough Russian hardware to keep Ukraine going.

At this point, people seem to be hoping US will step in with heavy equipment deliveries, as they are almost only Western country with sizable untouched stocks of AFV's (well, Greece and Turkey are, but few expect them to contribute much). Just few days ago, in Finnish tv military expert complained that USA has thousands of M1 Abrams in storage, yet only handed mere 30 examples.

[Stuart Galbraith]

18 minutes ago, ink said:

This does chime somewhat with what I've been hearing from Russian émigrés here in Belgrade. Although, to be clear, they are mostly living the life of Riley on their Russian salaries here... But they are hearing ominous news from back home.

Yeah. The Kremlin supposedly put together enormous cash reserves for this war, presumably so they could get through the period when the West didnt want to trade with them, and would then, thorugh suitably placed politicians, accept the inevitable. But I doubt they calcuated on a war of 2 years, and still no end in sight. I admit we seem to be going soft on giving more arms to Ukraine. But as far as wanting to trade with Russia, that seems further away than ever. I read the other day that Germany has got its gas stocks up to 95 percent of a possible maximum, and the majority I gather was sourced everywhere else other than Russia.

In my view,  there are two Russia's. There is the one that is a military power, that needs to pay its bills. There is the other one, which over the past 20 years seems to have been more important, the kleptocracy, the Mafia state as I think Litvinenko called it. That must be having real trouble shaking down cash, and off shoring it in the west. They must REALLY be suffering. It may be that even if we dont take down the Russian economy, and I think in the long run we will, if we just fuck up the Mafia pyramid, you just may get someone wanting to remove Putin so they can return to business as usual. After all, Wagner tried it.

Time will tell.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

Well, it's not "the Germans" who want to build a tank factory, it's one particular company, and as far as I'm concerned, they've shown a lot more initiative in the whole affair than pretty much anyone else. So, as far as I'm concerned, more power to them. They at least seem to have a plan for practical measures.

International committees and consortiums waste more time wagging their chins than we have. I'm still seeing mostly business as usual in ministerial bureaucracies all over the place. Granted, I'm exposed to only the training & simulation part, and arguably that's a secindary field when we need artillery shells by the milions. But I do know that people who think that the situation is serious act differently. Some good people in these organizations try to move and shake, but the vast majority don't.

What we need to start doing, is acting like we might be in a war with Russia by the end of next year. And we arent. Im not even seeing a commitment to replacing equipment we had 20 years ago when we had nothing but peace.

We all need a good boot up the ass. I almost wish Putin would start threatening Poland or the Baltic states again. It might wake someone the fuck up.

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So the timetable was wrong. It was likewise believed in 1939 that the blockade would swiftly bring Nazi Germany down. It didnt. But at length, it did anyway.

.

The timetable was not 'wrong' it was that the outcome was far above the capabilities of 'the west'. 

It was never believed that a blockade would 'swiftly' bring down Germany either in WW1 or WW2. iIt was always a long-term strategy. In 2022 the west vastly over-estimated both its power and its reach. 

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

We all need a good boot up the ass. I almost wish Putin would start threatening Poland or the Baltic states again. It might wake someone the fuck up.

Given the lax Ukrainian recruiting standards I suggest you move there and enlist. Then you can have the fight you seem to  have lived your whole life for. You leave me and mine out of your dangerous fantasy. 

[Strannik]

On 12/4/2023 at 2:00 PM, Strannik said:

I recall someone was proclaiming the small beachhead on the left side of Dnieper to be valuable for ZSU - here is a BBC account of some soldier's stories.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

 

Uke press again: "... we can't be silent anymore: wasting battalions on the left side to satisfy PR (ZSU is attacking) is a crime; 90% of them will be dead due to impossibility of evacuation..."

https://t.me/legitimniy/16871

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Strannik

[Stuart Galbraith]

47 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Given the lax Ukrainian recruiting standards I suggest you move there and enlist. Then you can have the fight you seem to  have lived your whole life for. You leave me and mine out of your dangerous fantasy. 

Once again, YOU are the one acting like the Imperialist, determining what happens to Ukraine. All we are doing is bankrolling their right of self deermination, something Russia itself agreed with in 1993, before reneging like the treacherous cunts they are.

You speak like a Socialist. Well ok then. So Ukraine is the impoverished African state, and Russia is the evil empire seeking to exploit them. So why are you supporting them doing it?

Id happily fight for Ukraine, if I had the skills to operate a Challenger 2. Sadly due to the ineptitude of my local TA barracks not recognising my inate talent for armour, I dont. I dont imagine they require aspirant novelists or platewashers, so frankly I feelt there is little I could contribute to their heroic struggle.

Right back at you. If you are so outraged at the West bankrolling Ukraine, why dont you go and fight for Russia? I hear they arent particularly choosy. You could pretend you have Nepalese ancestry.

[Stuart Galbraith]

55 minutes ago, mkenny said:

The timetable was not 'wrong' it was that the outcome was far above the capabilities of 'the west'. 

It was never believed that a blockade would 'swiftly' bring down Germany either in WW1 or WW2. iIt was always a long-term strategy. In 2022 the west vastly over-estimated both its power and its reach. 

Funny, because Ive read the exact opposite about the blocking of the Tungsten trade to Germany, including buying it up in Portugal. I suppose I imagined that as well?

[mkenny]

25 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

Id happily fight for Ukraine, if I had the skills to operate a Challenger 2. Sadly due to the ineptitude of my local TA barracks not recognising my inate talent for armour, I dont. I dont imagine they require aspirant novelists or platewashers, so frankly I feelt there is little I could contribute to their heroic struggle.

 

I guess many an elderly Ukrainian though the same-only to find there was indeed a pressing need for his services after  all. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/senior-citizens-continue-fight-for-ukraine-against-russian-invasion-2023-3?r=US&IR=T

 

It seem you are not that keen for 'we' to do anything after all.

Edited December 11, 2023 by mkenny

[Murph]

22 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

 

More like a killer investment. Some ammo that's going to expire, some deep reserve AFV and so on and US taxpayer money that's spend to buy stuff from the US industry. 

And that little cripples the Russian military. 

But why do we need to cripple the Russian military?  They are no threat to Europe, they are no threat to the US, it is a war between kleptocracies, let them fight it out.  The Cold War is OVER!  It has been over for over 30 years, Nato is no longer useful since it was designed to defend against a Soviet threat.  Why in all that is sacred do we keep f**king with the Russians?  As for Ukraine, they bought Biden and Vindman, and they are getting their money's worth.  

[crazyinsane105]

17 minutes ago, Murph said:

But why do we need to cripple the Russian military?  They are no threat to Europe, they are no threat to the US, it is a war between kleptocracies, let them fight it out.  The Cold War is OVER!  It has been over for over 30 years, Nato is no longer useful since it was designed to defend against a Soviet threat.  Why in all that is sacred do we keep f**king with the Russians?  As for Ukraine, they bought Biden and Vindman, and they are getting their money's worth.  

Major issue is that if Ukraine does fall, it puts the rest of our Baltic allies at significant risk as well. Maybe not now, but a decade once Moscow has rebuilt its military after they’ve taken on Ukraine? That is the prospect the West is trying to avoid 

 

 

[jmsaari]

34 minutes ago, Murph said:

The Cold War is OVER!  It has been over for over 30 years 

Unfortunately somebody forgot to tell that to Putin.

[Ssnake]

39 minutes ago, Murph said:

But why do we need to cripple the Russian military?  They are no threat to Europe

They're no threat to Europe as a whole, but

a. they can still be a threat to each individual European country

b. they have already declared their intent to rebuild the Soviet empire

c. they can't conquer Ukraine, but decided to try anyway; that elevates the chance they might decide to do equally stupid or worse decisions in the future.

d. they declared Czechia as their next big enemy ; don't know if you cared to look at a map, but there's at least one other country through which they must invade to get there.

e. The Baltic republics have always been something they wanted back.

 

So then, when do we want to stop them, when they have reached Lisbon?

Or maybe curb stomp them right away while we have the best chance since 1917 to stop whichever one of the countless murderous regimes chose to set up their headquarters in the Kremlin, without a guaranteed nuclear finale for everybody.

Except for Gorbachev and Yeltsin there was never a Russian or Soviet head of state since the Bolshevik revolution who did not have global power aspirations. Russia and the Soviet Union have been the biggest threat to peace in Europe (after the Nazis) for a century now.

Maybe that feels "normal" in Texas, but I can assure you that it does not over here.

[Stuart Galbraith]

42 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

Unfortunately somebody forgot to tell that to Putin.

Ding Ding! We have a winner!

 

Jesus Christ, I've been complaining about Putin since 2014. I loathed the son of a bitch, long before it was even fashionable. Didn't anyone listen?

[seahawk]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

At this point, people seem to be hoping US will step in with heavy equipment deliveries, as they are almost only Western country with sizable untouched stocks of AFV's (well, Greece and Turkey are, but few expect them to contribute much). Just few days ago, in Finnish tv military expert complained that USA has thousands of M1 Abrams in storage, yet only handed mere 30 examples.

Obviously only Russia and the USA could simply move equipment within the country to meet CFE obligations.

[Stuart Galbraith]

28 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

They're no threat to Europe as a whole, but

a. they can still be a threat to each individual European country

b. they have already declared their intent to rebuild the Soviet empire

c. they can't conquer Ukraine, but decided to try anyway; that elevates the chance they might decide to do equally stupid or worse decisions in the future.

d. they declared Czechia as their next big enemy ; don't know if you cared to look at a map, but there's at least one other country through which they must invade to get there.

e. The Baltic republics have always been something they wanted back.

 

So then, when do we want to stop them, when they have reached Lisbon?

Or maybe curb stomp them right away while we have the best chance since 1917 to stop whichever one of the countless murderous regimes chose to set up their headquarters in the Kremlin, without a guaranteed nuclear finale for everybody.

Except for Gorbachev and Yeltsin there was never a Russian or Soviet head of state since the Bolshevik revolution who did not have global power aspirations. Russia and the Soviet Union have been the biggest threat to peace in Europe (after the Nazis) for a century now.

Maybe that feels "normal" in Texas, but I can assure you that it does not over here.

And already have. They,

1 Shot down a Malaysian airliner, murdering nearly 300 people, many of them Americans. Did you forget that Murph.

2 Blew up a Czech Ammunition dump, killed 2 people, and arguably should have invoked an article 5.

3 Launched a Chemical weapon attack on Americas most loyal ally.

4 Launched a radiological assault on same.

The day I learned Putin Launched the Novichok attack on Salisbury, I said he was crazy enough to do anything. He was. He is. And frankly I don't think invoking cheese eating surrender monkey mode is going to save us.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Major issue is that if Ukraine does fall, it puts the rest of our Baltic allies at significant risk as well. Maybe not now, but a decade once Moscow has rebuilt its military after they’ve taken on Ukraine? That is the prospect the West is trying to avoid 

 

 

5 years, at best. The Baltic states are tiny compared to Ukraine. They really don't need much to occupy it.

 

[crazyinsane105]

8 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

5 years, at best. The Baltic states are tiny compared to Ukraine. They really don't need much to occupy it.

 

Technically the Russians would have been able to overrun them in a few days, pre Feb 2022. But who knows how accurate that was

One thing I will say about Russian military capabilities…for the amount of money they do put into it, they have more to show for it than most EU states. If it wasn’t for the US, I’d feel frightened for the EU

Edited December 11, 2023 by crazyinsane105

[Yama]

1 hour ago, jmsaari said:

Unfortunately somebody forgot to tell that to Putin.

I think he was first to know that, as he was the one who decided to replace cold war with hot war...

[JWB]

2 hours ago, Murph said:

..... designed to defend against ...........

Europe causing WW3.